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Exponential Technology Report 2026: Neurotechnology and Human–Machine Interfaces

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ReportsXT-20

Exponential Technology

Neurotechnology and Human–Machine Interfaces 2026

Baseline Edition 2026NR-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Imprint

Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto
Report number
NR-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE
Evidence close
30 September 2026, cut DC-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-B0
Status
Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
DOI and UNI
Issued at deposit
Licence
CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence
Cite as
Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Exponential Technology Report 2026: Neurotechnology and Human–Machine Interfaces (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/xt-20/

Contents

  1. ·

    Executive summary

  2. 1

    Chapter 1. Neurotechnology is clinical hardware and a new class of personal data

  3. 2

    Chapter 2. Key findings

  4. 3

    Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline

  5. 4

    Chapter 4. Risks and capability

  6. 5

    Chapter 5. Consumer neural data outside medical rules

  7. 6

    Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks

  8. 7

    Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda

  9. 8

    Chapter 8. Systems in depth

  10. A

    Annex A. Methodology

  11. B

    Annex B. Data appendix

  12. C

    Annex C. References and record

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

7 min read1 figure0 tables15 notesNR-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

S.1Abstract

Neurotechnology matters to the Nexus programme in two ways. It is a new class of implanted hardware, built from electrode arrays, amplifiers, radios and software decoders that need materials, power, surgeons and long-term follow-up. It is also a new source of personal data, because the signals of the nervous system can reveal intent, and sometimes inner speech. The clinical evidence is strong for single participants. A speech decoder reached 62 words per minute on a 125,000-word vocabulary1, and another reached a median of 78 words per minute2. A later study reported 97.5% accuracy beyond eight months after implantation, in one participant3. A fully implanted brain-spine interface stayed stable for over one year7, and an endovascular array recorded for one year in five participants8. Money and rules are moving. Neuralink reported five implanted participants and a USD 650 million round in 202520. China published an implementation opinion with targets for 2027 and 203016. UNESCO adopted a Recommendation on the Ethics of Neurotechnology in November 202510, Colorado extended its privacy law to neural data in 202414, and a US Senate bill would direct the FTC to study neural data11. The physical footprint, the workforce and market size are not measured on a common basis. This baseline sets out what the evidence supports and where it is thin. It forecasts no capability date and ranks no country or company.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the neurotechnology baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. In single participants, at 62 to 78 words per minute and up to 97.5% accuracy.123

    Do speech interfaces work?Reported

  2. One interface was stable over one year and an endovascular array recorded for one year.78

    Can an implant last?Reported

  3. Imagined sentences were decoded in four participants; safeguards are proposed.5

    Can inner speech be read?Reported

  4. UNESCO adopted a Recommendation; Colorado covers neural data; a US Senate bill is in committee.101411

    What do the rules say?Reported

  5. A 2021 constitutional rule and a 2023 deletion order; inferred data remain a grey zone.1718

    What does Chile show?Reported

  6. A USD 650 million company round in 2025; market size is not on a common basis.2029

    What does the money look like?Reported

  7. Not bound in this edition.9

    What is the power and heat footprint?Not bound

  8. Consumer neural data outside medical rules while clinical interfaces advance. SCN-XT20-NDT-01

    What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-001

Two Nature papers of August 2023 reported speech decoding at 62 and 78 words per minute in single participants with paralysis.

Figure S.1Speech decoding rates and natural conversation (words per minute)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Willett 2023, 125,000-word vocabulary62
Metzger 2023, median rate78
Natural conversation, as stated in the first paper160

Sources: Nature 620 (2023)12. The 160 figure is the approximate rate of natural conversation as stated in1.

Decoding of attempted speech into text is now fast enough to support conversation in a laboratory setting for a few people. The first study reported a 23.8% word error rate on a large vocabulary and the second a median of 25%; a later study in one participant reported 97.5% accuracy beyond eight months3. Each result rests on one participant and a research system.

S.4At a glance

62words per minute

speech decoding, 20231

97.5%

accuracy beyond eight months3

5participants

one-year endovascular study8

650USD million

company round, 202520

194Member States

entrusted UNESCO mandate in 202310

2030target year

Chinese implementation opinion16

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading neurotechnology as clinical hardware and as a source of personal data.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people the neurotechnology story arrives as a headline about a brain implant or a question about mental privacy.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Rounds are large and rest on company statements, market estimates differ widely and reimbursement is not reviewed.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Neurotechnology is well described by single results and thinly measured as a system.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the 2026 state of neurotechnology as clinical hardware and personal data and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.

What it is not

Not a forecast of when any device will reach the market, a technology ranking, an endorsement of any company or an assessment of any programme. Medical-device rules, privacy law and funding are decisions of competent authorities.

What comes next

National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 neurotechnology edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Willett, F.R. et al., A high-performance speech neuroprosthesis, Nature 620(7976), 1031 to 1036, published online 23 August 2023 (reference record read: 62 words per minute; 23.8% word error rate on 125,000 words; 9.1% on 50 words). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2Metzger, S.L. et al., A high-performance neuroprosthesis for speech decoding and avatar control, Nature 620(7976), 1037 to 1046, published online 23 August 2023 (reference record read: median 78 words per minute; median word error rate 25%). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 3Card, N.S. et al., An accurate and rapidly calibrating speech neuroprosthesis, medRxiv preprint, 26 December 2023 (preprint record read: 99.6% on 50 words on day 1; 90.2% on 125,000 words on day 2; 97.5% beyond eight months; 256 electrodes; the record notes the New England Journal of Medicine version 391(7), 609 to 618, August 2024). Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 7Lorach, H. et al., Walking naturally after spinal cord injury using a brain-spine interface, Nature 618(7963), 126 to 133, published online 24 May 2023 (reference record read: fully implanted; stable for over one year; one man with chronic tetraplegia). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 8Chetty, N. et al., Signal properties and stability of a chronically implanted endovascular brain computer interface, medRxiv preprint, 25 September 2025 (preprint record read: five participants; 16-channel array; one year; not peer reviewed). Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 20Zeff, M., Elon Musk Neuralink closes a USD 650 million Series E (trade report, 2 June 2025; page read; vendor statement as reported: five people implanted; valuation of about USD 9 billion pre-money from an earlier press report). TechCrunch, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 16Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other bodies (eds.), Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Innovation and Development of the Brain-Computer Interface Industry, MIIT (2025) No. 164, 23 July 2025, English translation by the Center for Security and Emerging Technology, 18 December 2025 (translation page read). Georgetown University, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 10UNESCO (ed.), Recommendation on the Ethics of Neurotechnology (page read: adopted November 2025 at the 43rd session of the General Conference; mandate entrusted by 194 Member States in 2023; the page states no neural data provisions). United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 14Colorado General Assembly (ed.), HB24-1058 Protect Privacy of Biological Data (bill page read: signed 17 April 2024; effective 7 August 2024). Colorado General Assembly, Denver. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 11United States Senate (ed.), Management of Individuals Neural Data Act of 2025 (MIND Act), S. 2925, 119th Congress, introduced text (text read: FTC study and report within one year of enactment; USD 10 million authorised; referred to committee). US Government Publishing Office, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 5Kunz, E.M. et al., Inner speech in motor cortex and implications for speech neuroprostheses, Cell 188(17), 4658 to 4673, published online 14 August 2025 (reference record read: four participants). Cell Press, Cambridge MA. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 17Cornejo-Plaza, M.I., Cippitani, R. and Pasquino, V., Chilean Supreme Court ruling on the protection of brain activity: neurorights, personal data protection, and neurodata, Frontiers in Psychology 15, 27 February 2024 (reference record read). Frontiers Media, Lausanne. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 18Lee, B.H., Even Chile neurorights leave inferred mental data in a gray zone, Stanford Law School Law and Biosciences Blog, 27 April 2026 (blog page read; commentary, not a legal text). Stanford University, Stanford. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: market-research reports on the neurotechnology and brain-computer interface markets for 2025 (several firms; figures differ by a large factor depending on definition), taken from search-result summaries; weak evidence and no figure used. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 9US Food and Drug Administration (ed.), Implanted Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) Devices for Patients with Paralysis or Amputation: Non-clinical Testing and Clinical Considerations, final guidance, May 2021 (guidance page read). Center for Devices and Radiological Health, Silver Spring. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Neurotechnology is clinical hardware and a new class of personal data

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no country or operator and assesses no authority.

7 min read2 figures1 table15 notesNR-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

  • Where is neurotechnology risk concentrated?
  • Which couplings carry neurotechnology shocks into other systems?
  • Which neurotechnology capabilities hold under compound stress?
  • What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

  • Narrative
  • Headline finding
  • Lead figure
  • Five footprint and governance chapters
  • Twelve-domain reading
  • Sector screens
  • Dependency matrix
  • Risk objects
  • Capability ladder
  • Scenario
  • Three lenses
  • Portfolio

1.2The argument

Neurotechnology is usually discussed as a race between implant companies. The 2026 evidence reads it as two things at once: clinical hardware that must be powered, built from specialised materials and followed for years, and a source of data that can reveal intent and, in some studies, inner speech159.

The clinical evidence is strong for single participants. A speech decoder reached 62 words per minute on a 125,000-word vocabulary1, another a median of 78 words per minute2, and a later study 97.5% accuracy beyond eight months3. A brain-spine interface stayed stable for over one year7. These are results in one or a few people, not products.

The rules are being written now. UNESCO adopted a Recommendation in November 202510, Colorado covers neural data14, Chile amended its constitution and a court ordered deletion17, and a US Senate bill would direct the FTC to study neural data11. China set industrial targets for 2027 and 203016.

The physical base is the least measured part. No power or heat budget is bound here, long-term signal loss is an open problem in the literature2224, and market size estimates in trade sources differ widely29.

Figure 1.1How accurate was one speech decoder over time? Percent of words correct

One participant with ALS and 256 intracortical electrodes reached high accuracy within hours of training and kept it beyond eight months. This is one person and a preprint record; the journal version is noted in the record3.

ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Day 1, 50-word vocabulary99.6
Day 2, 125,000-word vocabulary90.2
Beyond eight months, 125,000-word vocabulary97.5

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2023.

Figure ID FIG-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003

99.6%

day 1, 50 words3

90.2%

day 2, 125,000 words3

97.5%

beyond eight months3

256electrodes

intracortical3

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The neurotechnology-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their neurotechnology content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, toWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT Water·WEAK
no documented link
WEAK
no documented link
WEAK
no documented link
WEAK
no documented link
ENE EnergyWEAK
no documented link
·WEAK
no documented link
WEAK
clinical power supply, undocumented
WEAK
no documented link
FOO FoodWEAK
no documented link
WEAK
no documented link
·WEAK
no documented link
WEAK
no documented link
HLT HealthWEAK
no documented link
WEAK
no documented link
WEAK
no documented link
·WEAK
tissue response to implants
BIO BiodiversityWEAK
no documented link
WEAK
no documented link
WEAK
no documented link
WEAK
electrode biocompatibility
·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

  1. 01

    INF → HLT

    Implanted interfaces restore communication and movement in single participants.

    Reported speech and spinal results17

  2. 02

    INF → DAT

    Neural signals can carry intent and inner speech.

    Reported inner speech study5

  3. 03

    FIN → INF

    Investment funds trials and manufacturing.

    Reported company round20

  4. 04

    BIO → INF

    Tissue response and electrode materials limit long-term signal.

    Inferred literature2224

  5. 05

    GOV → DAT

    Laws and recommendations set how neural data may be used.

    Reported UNESCO, Colorado, US bill101411

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Willett, F.R. et al., A high-performance speech neuroprosthesis, Nature 620(7976), 1031 to 1036, published online 23 August 2023 (reference record read: 62 words per minute; 23.8% word error rate on 125,000 words; 9.1% on 50 words). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 5Kunz, E.M. et al., Inner speech in motor cortex and implications for speech neuroprostheses, Cell 188(17), 4658 to 4673, published online 14 August 2025 (reference record read: four participants). Cell Press, Cambridge MA. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 9US Food and Drug Administration (ed.), Implanted Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) Devices for Patients with Paralysis or Amputation: Non-clinical Testing and Clinical Considerations, final guidance, May 2021 (guidance page read). Center for Devices and Radiological Health, Silver Spring. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 2Metzger, S.L. et al., A high-performance neuroprosthesis for speech decoding and avatar control, Nature 620(7976), 1037 to 1046, published online 23 August 2023 (reference record read: median 78 words per minute; median word error rate 25%). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 3Card, N.S. et al., An accurate and rapidly calibrating speech neuroprosthesis, medRxiv preprint, 26 December 2023 (preprint record read: 99.6% on 50 words on day 1; 90.2% on 125,000 words on day 2; 97.5% beyond eight months; 256 electrodes; the record notes the New England Journal of Medicine version 391(7), 609 to 618, August 2024). Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 7Lorach, H. et al., Walking naturally after spinal cord injury using a brain-spine interface, Nature 618(7963), 126 to 133, published online 24 May 2023 (reference record read: fully implanted; stable for over one year; one man with chronic tetraplegia). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 10UNESCO (ed.), Recommendation on the Ethics of Neurotechnology (page read: adopted November 2025 at the 43rd session of the General Conference; mandate entrusted by 194 Member States in 2023; the page states no neural data provisions). United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 14Colorado General Assembly (ed.), HB24-1058 Protect Privacy of Biological Data (bill page read: signed 17 April 2024; effective 7 August 2024). Colorado General Assembly, Denver. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 17Cornejo-Plaza, M.I., Cippitani, R. and Pasquino, V., Chilean Supreme Court ruling on the protection of brain activity: neurorights, personal data protection, and neurodata, Frontiers in Psychology 15, 27 February 2024 (reference record read). Frontiers Media, Lausanne. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 11United States Senate (ed.), Management of Individuals Neural Data Act of 2025 (MIND Act), S. 2925, 119th Congress, introduced text (text read: FTC study and report within one year of enactment; USD 10 million authorised; referred to committee). US Government Publishing Office, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 16Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other bodies (eds.), Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Innovation and Development of the Brain-Computer Interface Industry, MIIT (2025) No. 164, 23 July 2025, English translation by the Center for Security and Emerging Technology, 18 December 2025 (translation page read). Georgetown University, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 22Ma, X. et al., Using adversarial networks to extend brain computer interface decoding accuracy over time, eLife 12, e84296, 2023 (reference record read). eLife Sciences, Cambridge. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 24Feng, Y. et al., Brain-computer interfaces: the dawn of a new era in disease treatment, Exploration 6(3), 2026 (reference record read: electrode biocompatibility and signal resolution named as challenges). Wiley, Beijing. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: market-research reports on the neurotechnology and brain-computer interface markets for 2025 (several firms; figures differ by a large factor depending on definition), taken from search-result summaries; weak evidence and no figure used. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 20Zeff, M., Elon Musk Neuralink closes a USD 650 million Series E (trade report, 2 June 2025; page read; vendor statement as reported: five people implanted; valuation of about USD 9 billion pre-money from an earlier press report). TechCrunch, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the neurotechnology baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

7 min read1 figure0 tables17 notesNR-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-001

Two Nature papers of August 2023 reported speech decoding at 62 and 78 words per minute in single participants with paralysis.

Figure 2.1Speech decoding rates and natural conversation (words per minute)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Willett 2023, 125,000-word vocabulary62
Metzger 2023, median rate78
Natural conversation, as stated in the first paper160

Sources: Nature 620 (2023)12. The 160 figure is the approximate rate of natural conversation as stated in1.

Implication

Decoding of attempted speech into text is now fast enough to support conversation in a laboratory setting for a few people. The first study reported a 23.8% word error rate on a large vocabulary and the second a median of 25%; a later study in one participant reported 97.5% accuracy beyond eight months3. Each result rests on one participant and a research system.

What would move it

Results in more participants, peer-reviewed long-term outcomes and home use would each move this finding.

2.2Infrastructure

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-001

    Two Nature papers of 2023 reported speech decoding at 62 words per minute on a 125,000-word vocabulary with a 23.8% word error rate, and at a median of 78 words per minute with a median word error rate of 25%, each in one participant.12

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-002

    A speech neuroprosthesis in one participant reached 97.5% accuracy on a 125,000-word vocabulary beyond eight months after implantation, using 256 intracortical electrodes.3

  3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-004

    A preprint of five participants with an endovascular 16-channel array reports movement-related signals recorded over one year, with no significant change in impedance for most channels.8

2.3Health

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-003

    A fully implanted brain-spine interface in one man with chronic tetraplegia stayed reliable for over one year and supported walking overground with crutches even when switched off.7

2.4Governance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-005

    Seven Chinese bodies led by the industry ministry issued an implementation opinion on 23 July 2025 that sets targets for 2027 and 2030, including two to three industrial cluster zones by 2027 and two to three globally influential enterprises by 2030.16

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-007

    Colorado extended its privacy act to neural data in a bill signed on 17 April 2024 and in force on 7 August 2024; Chile amended its constitution in 2021 and its Supreme Court ordered deletion of one user headset data in August 2023.141718

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-008

    UNESCO adopted a Recommendation on the Ethics of Neurotechnology at the 43rd session of its General Conference in November 2025, as a framework of values, principles and policy actions.10

  4. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-009

    The MIND Act of 2025 (S. 2925) would direct the FTC to study neural data and report to Congress within one year of enactment, and authorises USD 10 million for the study; it was referred to committee.1112

  5. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-010

    The FDA issued final guidance in May 2021 on non-clinical testing and study design for implanted interfaces, and a company reported in April 2025 a 510(k) clearance for a cortical-surface array for up to 30 days of implantation.915

2.5Data and digital

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DAT-006

    A 2025 study in four participants decoded imagined sentences in real time from motor cortex, found a separate neural dimension that distinguishes inner speech from attempted speech, and proposed methods to prevent unintended decoding of private inner speech.5

2.6Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011

    Neuralink stated in a blog post that five people with severe paralysis had been implanted and closed a USD 650 million round in June 2025; a registry entry for its PRIME study shows an estimated enrolment of 15 and a start date of 9 January 2024.1320

2.7Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is neural data from consumer devices sitting outside medical-device rules while clinical interfaces advance. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Willett, F.R. et al., A high-performance speech neuroprosthesis, Nature 620(7976), 1031 to 1036, published online 23 August 2023 (reference record read: 62 words per minute; 23.8% word error rate on 125,000 words; 9.1% on 50 words). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2Metzger, S.L. et al., A high-performance neuroprosthesis for speech decoding and avatar control, Nature 620(7976), 1037 to 1046, published online 23 August 2023 (reference record read: median 78 words per minute; median word error rate 25%). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 3Card, N.S. et al., An accurate and rapidly calibrating speech neuroprosthesis, medRxiv preprint, 26 December 2023 (preprint record read: 99.6% on 50 words on day 1; 90.2% on 125,000 words on day 2; 97.5% beyond eight months; 256 electrodes; the record notes the New England Journal of Medicine version 391(7), 609 to 618, August 2024). Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 8Chetty, N. et al., Signal properties and stability of a chronically implanted endovascular brain computer interface, medRxiv preprint, 25 September 2025 (preprint record read: five participants; 16-channel array; one year; not peer reviewed). Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 7Lorach, H. et al., Walking naturally after spinal cord injury using a brain-spine interface, Nature 618(7963), 126 to 133, published online 24 May 2023 (reference record read: fully implanted; stable for over one year; one man with chronic tetraplegia). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 16Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other bodies (eds.), Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Innovation and Development of the Brain-Computer Interface Industry, MIIT (2025) No. 164, 23 July 2025, English translation by the Center for Security and Emerging Technology, 18 December 2025 (translation page read). Georgetown University, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 14Colorado General Assembly (ed.), HB24-1058 Protect Privacy of Biological Data (bill page read: signed 17 April 2024; effective 7 August 2024). Colorado General Assembly, Denver. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 17Cornejo-Plaza, M.I., Cippitani, R. and Pasquino, V., Chilean Supreme Court ruling on the protection of brain activity: neurorights, personal data protection, and neurodata, Frontiers in Psychology 15, 27 February 2024 (reference record read). Frontiers Media, Lausanne. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 18Lee, B.H., Even Chile neurorights leave inferred mental data in a gray zone, Stanford Law School Law and Biosciences Blog, 27 April 2026 (blog page read; commentary, not a legal text). Stanford University, Stanford. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 10UNESCO (ed.), Recommendation on the Ethics of Neurotechnology (page read: adopted November 2025 at the 43rd session of the General Conference; mandate entrusted by 194 Member States in 2023; the page states no neural data provisions). United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 11United States Senate (ed.), Management of Individuals Neural Data Act of 2025 (MIND Act), S. 2925, 119th Congress, introduced text (text read: FTC study and report within one year of enactment; USD 10 million authorised; referred to committee). US Government Publishing Office, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 12US Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation (ed.), release on the introduction of the MIND Act, 24 September 2025 (release read: names Colorado, California, Montana and Connecticut as states with neural data laws). US Senate, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 9US Food and Drug Administration (ed.), Implanted Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) Devices for Patients with Paralysis or Amputation: Non-clinical Testing and Clinical Considerations, final guidance, May 2021 (guidance page read). Center for Devices and Radiological Health, Silver Spring. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 15Precision Neuroscience (ed.), company release on FDA 510(k) clearance of the Layer 7 Cortical Interface, 17 April 2025 (release read; vendor announcement, weak evidence: up to 30 days of implantation; 37 patients tested). Precision Neuroscience, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 5Kunz, E.M. et al., Inner speech in motor cortex and implications for speech neuroprostheses, Cell 188(17), 4658 to 4673, published online 14 August 2025 (reference record read: four participants). Cell Press, Cambridge MA. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 13ClinicalTrials.gov (ed.), PRIME: An Early Feasibility Study of a Precise Robotically Implanted Brain-Computer Interface for the Control of External Devices, NCT06429735 (record read: recruiting; start 9 January 2024; estimated enrolment 15; updated January 2026; sponsor-supplied entry). National Library of Medicine, Bethesda. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 20Zeff, M., Elon Musk Neuralink closes a USD 650 million Series E (trade report, 2 June 2025; page read; vendor statement as reported: five people implanted; valuation of about USD 9 billion pre-money from an earlier press report). TechCrunch, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Systems and sectors at baseline

6 min read0 figures2 tables13 notesNR-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

INF · Hardware

Large-vocabulary speech decoding rate

62words per minute

one participant, 125,000-word vocabulary.

Reported2023Nature1

INF · Accuracy

Speech decoder accuracy beyond eight months

97.5%

one participant; preprint record, journal version noted.

Reported2023preprint3

HLT · Clinic

Participants in the one-year endovascular study

5participants

16-channel array; preprint, not peer reviewed.

Reported2025preprint8

FIN · Finance

Neuralink funding round

650USD million

company blog as reported by a trade outlet; vendor statement.

Reported2025trade report20

GOV · Governance

States named by Senate sponsors as having neural data laws

4states

Colorado, California, Montana and Connecticut, as named.

Reported2025Senate release12

SYS · Cross-system

Estimated enrolment in the PRIME feasibility study

15participants

registry estimate; study recruiting.

Reported2026registry13

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through neurotechnology, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries neurotechnology risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATCooling water is not a documented coupling for implanted devices.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
ENEImplant power and charging budgets are not bound in this edition.ENE → INFExpert input EQL 1
FOONo documented coupling at baseline.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
HLTClinical results in paralysis and spinal injury; benefit shown in single participants.INF → HLTReported EQL 4
BIOBiocompatibility of electrodes limits long-term use; no failure rate is bound.BIO ↔ INFReported EQL 3
CLINo documented coupling at baseline.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
INFThe core system: speech, spinal and endovascular interfaces working in single participants.the core systemReported EQL 4
FINA USD 650 million company round in 2025; market size not on a common basis.FIN → INFReported EQL 2
DATNeural data raise privacy questions; inner speech was decoded in four participants.INF → DATReported EQL 3
AICTrained decoders turn signals into text and speech; decoder drift is studied.INF ↔ AICReported EQL 3
MINElectrode materials are named in the literature; no mineral dependence is bound.MIN → INFInferred EQL 2
TRDIndustrial policy targets name electrodes and chips; trade exposure is not bound.TRD ↔ INFInferred EQL 2

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on neurotechnology, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemneurotechnology couples to health, data and materialsconsumer data outside medical rulesTHIN
GS-01Waterno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-02Energyimplant power not boundnone documentedTHIN
GS-03Foodno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-04Healthclinical results in paralysis17access and follow-upPARTIAL
GS-05FinanceUSD 650 million company round20claims ahead of evidenceTHIN
GS-06Developmentaccess to implants and skilled teamswidening gapsTHIN
GS-07Climateno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-08Disasterno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-09Infrastructureclinical sites and surgical capacityfew implanting centresTHIN
GS-10Citiesno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-11Biodiversityno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-12Earth observationno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-13Cyber and digitalneural data and inner speech decoding5security of implants and dataPARTIAL
GS-14PolicyUNESCO, US bills, state laws, Chile10111417fragmented rulesPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencestrong peer-reviewed base127long-term outcomesGOOD

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Willett, F.R. et al., A high-performance speech neuroprosthesis, Nature 620(7976), 1031 to 1036, published online 23 August 2023 (reference record read: 62 words per minute; 23.8% word error rate on 125,000 words; 9.1% on 50 words). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 3Card, N.S. et al., An accurate and rapidly calibrating speech neuroprosthesis, medRxiv preprint, 26 December 2023 (preprint record read: 99.6% on 50 words on day 1; 90.2% on 125,000 words on day 2; 97.5% beyond eight months; 256 electrodes; the record notes the New England Journal of Medicine version 391(7), 609 to 618, August 2024). Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 8Chetty, N. et al., Signal properties and stability of a chronically implanted endovascular brain computer interface, medRxiv preprint, 25 September 2025 (preprint record read: five participants; 16-channel array; one year; not peer reviewed). Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 20Zeff, M., Elon Musk Neuralink closes a USD 650 million Series E (trade report, 2 June 2025; page read; vendor statement as reported: five people implanted; valuation of about USD 9 billion pre-money from an earlier press report). TechCrunch, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 12US Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation (ed.), release on the introduction of the MIND Act, 24 September 2025 (release read: names Colorado, California, Montana and Connecticut as states with neural data laws). US Senate, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 13ClinicalTrials.gov (ed.), PRIME: An Early Feasibility Study of a Precise Robotically Implanted Brain-Computer Interface for the Control of External Devices, NCT06429735 (record read: recruiting; start 9 January 2024; estimated enrolment 15; updated January 2026; sponsor-supplied entry). National Library of Medicine, Bethesda. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 7Lorach, H. et al., Walking naturally after spinal cord injury using a brain-spine interface, Nature 618(7963), 126 to 133, published online 24 May 2023 (reference record read: fully implanted; stable for over one year; one man with chronic tetraplegia). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 5Kunz, E.M. et al., Inner speech in motor cortex and implications for speech neuroprostheses, Cell 188(17), 4658 to 4673, published online 14 August 2025 (reference record read: four participants). Cell Press, Cambridge MA. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 10UNESCO (ed.), Recommendation on the Ethics of Neurotechnology (page read: adopted November 2025 at the 43rd session of the General Conference; mandate entrusted by 194 Member States in 2023; the page states no neural data provisions). United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 11United States Senate (ed.), Management of Individuals Neural Data Act of 2025 (MIND Act), S. 2925, 119th Congress, introduced text (text read: FTC study and report within one year of enactment; USD 10 million authorised; referred to committee). US Government Publishing Office, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 14Colorado General Assembly (ed.), HB24-1058 Protect Privacy of Biological Data (bill page read: signed 17 April 2024; effective 7 August 2024). Colorado General Assembly, Denver. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 17Cornejo-Plaza, M.I., Cippitani, R. and Pasquino, V., Chilean Supreme Court ruling on the protection of brain activity: neurorights, personal data protection, and neurodata, Frontiers in Psychology 15, 27 February 2024 (reference record read). Frontiers Media, Lausanne. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 2Metzger, S.L. et al., A high-performance neuroprosthesis for speech decoding and avatar control, Nature 620(7976), 1037 to 1046, published online 23 August 2023 (reference record read: median 78 words per minute; median word error rate 25%). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Risks and capability

Four neurotechnology risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

6 min read0 figures1 table21 notesNR-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT20-DAT-001

    Neural data outside medical and privacy rules

    Driver
    consumer headsets and decoders that infer mental states518
    Exposure
    users of consumer devices; participants in speech trials
    Vulnerability
    inferred data fall in a grey zone in Chile18; US rules differ by state1412
    Capacity
    UNESCO Recommendation; state laws; a Senate study bill101411
    Cascade
    DAT → FIN, HLT, GOV
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years
  2. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT20-INF-002

    Long-term signal loss and device failure

    Driver
    neuron turnover, electrode biocompatibility and drift2224
    Exposure
    implanted participants who depend on a device
    Vulnerability
    no common failure reporting; company support may end
    Capacity
    drift-correction methods; one-year stability reports7822
    Cascade
    INF → HLT
    Horizon
    1 to 10 years
  3. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT20-GOV-003

    Fragmented rules and uneven access

    Driver
    different laws, devices cleared on different pathways, national industrial targets91516
    Exposure
    cross-border trials and consumer products
    Vulnerability
    consumer devices outside medical pathways18
    Capacity
    guidance, recommendations and standards91040
    Cascade
    GOV → INF, DAT
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years
  4. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-XT20-FIN-004

    Company claims ahead of peer-reviewed evidence

    Driver
    large rounds and company announcements202730
    Exposure
    patients, funders and public debate
    Vulnerability
    claims not yet peer reviewed1315
    Capacity
    peer review and registry entries13
    Cascade
    FIN → HLT, GOV
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for neurotechnology at the global level.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSFDA guidance on testing implanted interfaces; UNESCO Recommendation910
Monitoring and observationLISTEDno common tracker of device failure or neural data practices
Early warningLISTEDno consolidated signal system
Preparedness and planningEXISTSregistry entries, policy targets and a Senate study bill111316
Redundancy and reservesLISTEDsupport continuity if a device company ceases is not documented
ResponseLISTEDno tested response to a data incident or device recall at scale
Continuity of critical servicesLISTEDlong-term follow-up and device support not reported
RecoveryLISTEDnot applicable at baseline
AdaptationEXISTSdecoder recalibration and drift-correction methods studied22
Social protectionLISTEDaccess to implants for those who need them is not documented
Finance and insuranceLISTEDreimbursement not reviewed; private rounds large20
Institutional coordinationEXISTSUNESCO, OECD and national policies101631
Technical infrastructureEXISTSclinical trial sites and a cleared cortical-surface array815
WorkforceLISTEDsurgeons and programming staff; no figure bound
Research capacityADEQUATEstrong peer-reviewed base1257
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5Kunz, E.M. et al., Inner speech in motor cortex and implications for speech neuroprostheses, Cell 188(17), 4658 to 4673, published online 14 August 2025 (reference record read: four participants). Cell Press, Cambridge MA. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 18Lee, B.H., Even Chile neurorights leave inferred mental data in a gray zone, Stanford Law School Law and Biosciences Blog, 27 April 2026 (blog page read; commentary, not a legal text). Stanford University, Stanford. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 14Colorado General Assembly (ed.), HB24-1058 Protect Privacy of Biological Data (bill page read: signed 17 April 2024; effective 7 August 2024). Colorado General Assembly, Denver. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 12US Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation (ed.), release on the introduction of the MIND Act, 24 September 2025 (release read: names Colorado, California, Montana and Connecticut as states with neural data laws). US Senate, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 10UNESCO (ed.), Recommendation on the Ethics of Neurotechnology (page read: adopted November 2025 at the 43rd session of the General Conference; mandate entrusted by 194 Member States in 2023; the page states no neural data provisions). United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 11United States Senate (ed.), Management of Individuals Neural Data Act of 2025 (MIND Act), S. 2925, 119th Congress, introduced text (text read: FTC study and report within one year of enactment; USD 10 million authorised; referred to committee). US Government Publishing Office, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 22Ma, X. et al., Using adversarial networks to extend brain computer interface decoding accuracy over time, eLife 12, e84296, 2023 (reference record read). eLife Sciences, Cambridge. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 24Feng, Y. et al., Brain-computer interfaces: the dawn of a new era in disease treatment, Exploration 6(3), 2026 (reference record read: electrode biocompatibility and signal resolution named as challenges). Wiley, Beijing. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 7Lorach, H. et al., Walking naturally after spinal cord injury using a brain-spine interface, Nature 618(7963), 126 to 133, published online 24 May 2023 (reference record read: fully implanted; stable for over one year; one man with chronic tetraplegia). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 8Chetty, N. et al., Signal properties and stability of a chronically implanted endovascular brain computer interface, medRxiv preprint, 25 September 2025 (preprint record read: five participants; 16-channel array; one year; not peer reviewed). Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 9US Food and Drug Administration (ed.), Implanted Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) Devices for Patients with Paralysis or Amputation: Non-clinical Testing and Clinical Considerations, final guidance, May 2021 (guidance page read). Center for Devices and Radiological Health, Silver Spring. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 15Precision Neuroscience (ed.), company release on FDA 510(k) clearance of the Layer 7 Cortical Interface, 17 April 2025 (release read; vendor announcement, weak evidence: up to 30 days of implantation; 37 patients tested). Precision Neuroscience, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 16Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other bodies (eds.), Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Innovation and Development of the Brain-Computer Interface Industry, MIIT (2025) No. 164, 23 July 2025, English translation by the Center for Security and Emerging Technology, 18 December 2025 (translation page read). Georgetown University, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO (ed.), ISO 14708-3, Implants for surgery: active implantable medical devices, part 3, implantable neurostimulators, cited from memory without figures. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 20Zeff, M., Elon Musk Neuralink closes a USD 650 million Series E (trade report, 2 June 2025; page read; vendor statement as reported: five people implanted; valuation of about USD 9 billion pre-money from an earlier press report). TechCrunch, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Paradromics (ed.), company statements on an FDA investigational device exemption for the Connect-One early feasibility study (November 2025, two initial participants) and a first implant at a university hospital, taken from search-result summaries of vendor announcements; weak evidence. Paradromics, Austin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: trade reports of other company funding rounds in 2025 including a Series D for an endovascular interface company and a seed round for a new interface company, taken from search-result summaries; weak evidence and no figure used. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 13ClinicalTrials.gov (ed.), PRIME: An Early Feasibility Study of a Precise Robotically Implanted Brain-Computer Interface for the Control of External Devices, NCT06429735 (record read: recruiting; start 9 January 2024; estimated enrolment 15; updated January 2026; sponsor-supplied entry). National Library of Medicine, Bethesda. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Recommendation of the Council on Responsible Innovation in Neurotechnology, 2019, cited from memory. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 1Willett, F.R. et al., A high-performance speech neuroprosthesis, Nature 620(7976), 1031 to 1036, published online 23 August 2023 (reference record read: 62 words per minute; 23.8% word error rate on 125,000 words; 9.1% on 50 words). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 2Metzger, S.L. et al., A high-performance neuroprosthesis for speech decoding and avatar control, Nature 620(7976), 1037 to 1046, published online 23 August 2023 (reference record read: median 78 words per minute; median word error rate 25%). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Consumer neural data outside medical rules

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables2 notesNR-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-XT20-NDT-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
consumer neural devices spread faster than rules, while decoders improve at inferring intent
Analogues
the 2023 Chilean deletion order and the 2024 Colorado law1417
Interventions
none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    INF → DAT

    decoders reach inner speech in research settings

    2025

  2. 2

    DAT → GOV

    states and bodies add neural data to privacy law

    2024

  3. 3

    GOV → FIN

    companies face rules that differ by jurisdiction

    2025

  4. 4

    FIN → INF

    funding favours clinical devices with clear pathways

    2025

  5. 5

    DAT → HLT

    consumer devices that infer mood or intent fall outside medical oversight

    2024

  6. 6

    GOV → DAT

    a federal study reports on gaps in existing law

    2025

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-XT20-NDT-01 would travel through Neurotechnology and Human–Machine Interfaces’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Infrastructure to datDecoders reach inner speech in research settings. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition XT-20, scenario SCN-XT20-NDT-01, step 1
02 DAT to governanceStates and bodies add neural data to privacy law. Analogue or source: 2024.Edition XT-20, scenario SCN-XT20-NDT-01, step 2
03 Governance to financeCompanies face rules that differ by jurisdiction. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition XT-20, scenario SCN-XT20-NDT-01, step 3
04 Finance to infrastructureFunding favours clinical devices with clear pathways. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition XT-20, scenario SCN-XT20-NDT-01, step 4
05 DAT to healthConsumer devices that infer mood or intent fall outside medical oversight. Analogue or source: 2024.Edition XT-20, scenario SCN-XT20-NDT-01, step 5
06 Governance to datA federal study reports on gaps in existing law. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition XT-20, scenario SCN-XT20-NDT-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Neurotechnology and Human–Machine Interfaces 2026, scenario SCN-XT20-NDT-01 (2026); Neurotechnology and Human–Machine Interfaces 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 14Colorado General Assembly (ed.), HB24-1058 Protect Privacy of Biological Data (bill page read: signed 17 April 2024; effective 7 August 2024). Colorado General Assembly, Denver. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 17Cornejo-Plaza, M.I., Cippitani, R. and Pasquino, V., Chilean Supreme Court ruling on the protection of brain activity: neurorights, personal data protection, and neurodata, Frontiers in Psychology 15, 27 February 2024 (reference record read). Frontiers Media, Lausanne. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Readings from the other desks

The neurotechnology baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.

16 min read0 figures8 tables38 notesNR-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

DeskEditionStateIdentifier
GCRI Systems EvidenceNo edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
GRF Public DeliberationOutside this desk’s remitNot in remit
GRA Capital ReadinessOutside this desk’s remitNot in remit
Standards ProgressNo edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Academy CapabilityNo edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Index MeasurementOutside this desk’s remitNot in remit

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading neurotechnology as clinical hardware and as a source of personal data. Clinical results are real in single participants, rules are being written, and the footprint, workforce and market are not measured on a common basis. Evidence is strongest for single studies and weakest for durability, power and market size.

INF-001 · DAT-006 · GOV-008 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people the neurotechnology story arrives as a headline about a brain implant or a question about mental privacy. The baseline asks that public debate separate peer-reviewed results from company statements, and keep the protection of neural data in view.

DAT-006 · GOV-007 · FIN-011

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Rounds are large and rest on company statements, market estimates differ widely and reimbursement is not reviewed2029. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an authorisation.

FIN-011 · GOV-010

NEXUS

Synthesis

Neurotechnology is well described by single results and thinly measured as a system. The 2027 programme should map neural data rules, publish comparable durability and power figures and test the consumer data pathway.

SYS-012 · N-01 · N-02

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for neurotechnology. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
QuarterEditionQuestionBoundary
Q1State and AgendaWhat matters this year, and what is the starting position?observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2Evidence and BuildWhat new evidence and capability exist?a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3Stress Test and ReadinessWhat do scenarios and tests show?simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4Annual Synthesis and RenewalWhat changed in the year, and what renews?release follows review, not event publicity deadlines
Table 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or bodyRoleContribution route
GCRI CanadaLead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standardspreparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methodsStandards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academylearning pathways tied to the agenda questionsAcademy gateway · learning by review
Nexus Standards and Academytechnology chapter inputs: GCRI evidence, NXS standards, RA capabilitytechnology editorial board

Standards drafts used in this edition

  • Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
  • Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
  • Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

  • Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
  • Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
  • Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

Neurotechnology is a clinical build-out and a new kind of personal data. The first is slow, surgical and material. The second is a policy question that exists now. Keeping them apart avoids both hype and complacency.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

Two stories, one technology

A peer-reviewed paper, a registry entry and a company announcement carry different weight. This edition labels each, and asks for a common basis before outcomes are compared.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

Separate results, registries and claims

Power, heat, materials and surgical teams are rarely counted. A published footprint would show whether scale is limited by physics, supply or skills.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

The footprint is the blind spot

Laws on neural data are being passed while the technology is at feasibility stage. The question is whether they reach inferred data and consumer devices.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

Rules arrive before evidence

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 neurotechnology readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.32027 neurotechnology readiness pack
ItemRegisterState at baselineFirst 2027 entry
E1Neurotechnology risk state deltabaseline set by this editionchanges against the baseline
E2WEFH+B state deltafive global system readings setindicator updates and freshness
E3Agenda and Portfolio movementeight agenda items · 6 proposed objectsadmission decisions
E4Federation delivery registernational chapters in preparationnational chapters
E5Consortium capability registernational consortia formingfirst contributions
E6Leadership questions and challengesnone yetfirst challenge log
E7Foundry technical statenational environments preparedfirst federation cut
E8Publication candidatestwelve findings carried forwardPUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9Universe readinessone candidate missionadmission and role spine
E10Correction registernonefirst federation-wide cycle

Publication dispositions

  • Publish
  • Hold
  • Needs evidence
  • Restricted
  • Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

  • IN FORCE
  • PUBLISHED
  • BILL
  • PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
Table 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
InstrumentBodyScopeStatusRelevance
FDA guidance on implanted brain-computer interfaces9US FDAUSPUBLISHED 2021non-clinical testing and study design
UNESCO Recommendation on the Ethics of Neurotechnology10UNESCO General ConferenceglobalADOPTED NOVEMBER 2025ethics framework
MIND Act, S. 292511US SenateUSBILL · IN COMMITTEEfederal neural data study
Colorado HB24-105814ColoradoColoradoIN FORCE 2024neural data in privacy act
California SB 122325CaliforniaCaliforniaIN FORCE 2025neural data as sensitive data
Montana and Connecticut neural data laws41state legislaturesUS statesPUBLISHEDneural data
Chile constitutional amendment, Law 21.38342ChileChileIN FORCE 2021brain activity protection
OECD Recommendation on Responsible Innovation in Neurotechnology31OECDOECD membersPUBLISHED 2019principles
EU Medical Device Regulation, Annex XVI39European UnionEUIN FORCEbrain stimulation equipment
ISO 14708-340ISOglobalPUBLISHED · VOLUNTARYimplantable neurostimulators

Changed since 2024

  • UNESCO adopted its Recommendation on the Ethics of Neurotechnology in November 202510
  • The MIND Act was introduced in September 20251112
  • Seven Chinese bodies issued their implementation opinion in July 202516

To watch in 2027

  • The FTC study if the MIND Act is enacted11
  • The Chilean neurorights bill before the Chamber of Deputies18
  • The EU prohibition on emotion recognition at work and in education43

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers neurotechnology assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question
What does the published evidence establish about neurotechnology as clinical hardware and personal data and its couplings?
Sources searched
peer-reviewed journals and preprints; guidance, laws and recommendations; policy translations; company and trade reports
Window
releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection
sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step
systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027
Table 6.5Peer-reviewed science and preprints
ReferenceTypeYearRoleUsed for
Willett et al.1journal article2023supportsspeech decoding
Metzger et al.2journal article2023supportsspeech and avatar
Card et al.3preprint record2023supportsaccuracy over time
Wairagkar et al.4preprint record2024contextvoice synthesis
Kunz et al.5journal article2025supportsinner speech
Willett et al.6journal article2021contexthandwriting decoding
Lorach et al.7journal article2023supportsbrain-spine interface
Chetty et al.8preprint2025supportsendovascular stability
Table 6.6Foundational and field literature
ReferenceIssuerYearRoleUsed for
Ma et al.22journal article2023supportsdecoder drift
Wellman et al.23journal article2018contextelectrode materials
Feng et al.24journal article2026contextbiocompatibility review
Bublitz et al.21journal article2025contextmoratorium proposal
Szoszkiewicz and Yuste19journal article2025contextmental privacy
Hochberg et al.36journal article2006frameworkearly implanted interface
Collinger et al.37journal article2013contextarm control
Moses et al.38journal article2021contextspeech decoding
Yuste et al.34journal article2017frameworkethical priorities
Ienca and Andorno35journal article2017frameworknew rights
Table 6.7Law, policy and guidance
ReferenceIssuerYearRoleUsed for
FDA guidance on implanted interfaces9FDA2021supportstesting and study design
UNESCO Recommendation page10UNESCO2025supportsglobal ethics
MIND Act text11US Senate2025supportsfederal study bill
Colorado HB24-105814Colorado legislature2024supportsstate law
Chinese implementation opinion16seven Chinese bodies, translated2025supportsindustrial targets
Table 6.8Industry, trade and company sources
ReferenceIssuerYearRoleUsed for
Cleared cortical-surface array15Precision Neuroscience2025contextvendor release
Neuralink funding report20trade outlet2025contextvendor statement
Neurotechnology reports29market-research firms2025contextmarket size, weak
Funding rounds30trade reports2025contextvendor statements
Consumer neurotechnology report33Neurorights Foundation2024contextprivacy practices

Where the evidence agrees

  • Single-participant results show speech and movement can be decoded or restored127
  • Neural data need specific privacy attention101419
  • Long-term signal stability is a technical challenge2224

Where it is unsettled

  • How well single-participant results generalise13
  • How far privacy law reaches inferred mental data1819
  • How large the market is, on any common definition29

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 20Zeff, M., Elon Musk Neuralink closes a USD 650 million Series E (trade report, 2 June 2025; page read; vendor statement as reported: five people implanted; valuation of about USD 9 billion pre-money from an earlier press report). TechCrunch, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: market-research reports on the neurotechnology and brain-computer interface markets for 2025 (several firms; figures differ by a large factor depending on definition), taken from search-result summaries; weak evidence and no figure used. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 9US Food and Drug Administration (ed.), Implanted Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) Devices for Patients with Paralysis or Amputation: Non-clinical Testing and Clinical Considerations, final guidance, May 2021 (guidance page read). Center for Devices and Radiological Health, Silver Spring. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 10UNESCO (ed.), Recommendation on the Ethics of Neurotechnology (page read: adopted November 2025 at the 43rd session of the General Conference; mandate entrusted by 194 Member States in 2023; the page states no neural data provisions). United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 11United States Senate (ed.), Management of Individuals Neural Data Act of 2025 (MIND Act), S. 2925, 119th Congress, introduced text (text read: FTC study and report within one year of enactment; USD 10 million authorised; referred to committee). US Government Publishing Office, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 14Colorado General Assembly (ed.), HB24-1058 Protect Privacy of Biological Data (bill page read: signed 17 April 2024; effective 7 August 2024). Colorado General Assembly, Denver. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: California Senate Bill 1223 (Becker), consumer privacy: sensitive personal information: neural data, signed 27 September 2024, in force 1 January 2025, taken from search-result summaries; the legislature page returned an access error. California Legislature, Sacramento. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Montana and Connecticut state laws on neural data, named in the Senate release [12] and in search-result summaries; texts not opened. State legislatures, Helena and Hartford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Republic of Chile, Law 21.383 amending Article 19 of the Constitution on scientific and technological development and brain activity, 2021, reported in references 17 and 18; text not opened. Biblioteca del Congreso Nacional, Santiago. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Recommendation of the Council on Responsible Innovation in Neurotechnology, 2019, cited from memory. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Union, Regulation (EU) 2017/745 on medical devices, Annex XVI on products without an intended medical purpose (includes equipment for brain stimulation), cited from memory. Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO (ed.), ISO 14708-3, Implants for surgery: active implantable medical devices, part 3, implantable neurostimulators, cited from memory without figures. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 12US Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation (ed.), release on the introduction of the MIND Act, 24 September 2025 (release read: names Colorado, California, Montana and Connecticut as states with neural data laws). US Senate, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 16Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other bodies (eds.), Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Innovation and Development of the Brain-Computer Interface Industry, MIIT (2025) No. 164, 23 July 2025, English translation by the Center for Security and Emerging Technology, 18 December 2025 (translation page read). Georgetown University, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 18Lee, B.H., Even Chile neurorights leave inferred mental data in a gray zone, Stanford Law School Law and Biosciences Blog, 27 April 2026 (blog page read; commentary, not a legal text). Stanford University, Stanford. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Union, Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 (Artificial Intelligence Act), Article 5 on prohibited practices including emotion recognition in workplaces and education, cited from memory. Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 1Willett, F.R. et al., A high-performance speech neuroprosthesis, Nature 620(7976), 1031 to 1036, published online 23 August 2023 (reference record read: 62 words per minute; 23.8% word error rate on 125,000 words; 9.1% on 50 words). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 2Metzger, S.L. et al., A high-performance neuroprosthesis for speech decoding and avatar control, Nature 620(7976), 1037 to 1046, published online 23 August 2023 (reference record read: median 78 words per minute; median word error rate 25%). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 3Card, N.S. et al., An accurate and rapidly calibrating speech neuroprosthesis, medRxiv preprint, 26 December 2023 (preprint record read: 99.6% on 50 words on day 1; 90.2% on 125,000 words on day 2; 97.5% beyond eight months; 256 electrodes; the record notes the New England Journal of Medicine version 391(7), 609 to 618, August 2024). Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 4Wairagkar, M. et al., An instantaneous voice synthesis neuroprosthesis, bioRxiv preprint, 19 August 2024 (preprint record read: 256 microelectrodes, one participant with ALS; no quantitative scores in the abstract; the record notes Nature 644(8075), 145 to 152, 2025). Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 5Kunz, E.M. et al., Inner speech in motor cortex and implications for speech neuroprostheses, Cell 188(17), 4658 to 4673, published online 14 August 2025 (reference record read: four participants). Cell Press, Cambridge MA. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 6Willett, F.R., Avansino, D.T., Hochberg, L.R., Henderson, J.M. and Shenoy, K.V., High-performance brain-to-text communication via handwriting, Nature 593(7858), 249 to 254, published online 12 May 2021 (reference record read: 90 characters per minute; 94.1% raw online accuracy). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 7Lorach, H. et al., Walking naturally after spinal cord injury using a brain-spine interface, Nature 618(7963), 126 to 133, published online 24 May 2023 (reference record read: fully implanted; stable for over one year; one man with chronic tetraplegia). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  24. 8Chetty, N. et al., Signal properties and stability of a chronically implanted endovascular brain computer interface, medRxiv preprint, 25 September 2025 (preprint record read: five participants; 16-channel array; one year; not peer reviewed). Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  25. 22Ma, X. et al., Using adversarial networks to extend brain computer interface decoding accuracy over time, eLife 12, e84296, 2023 (reference record read). eLife Sciences, Cambridge. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  26. 23Wellman, S.M. et al., A materials roadmap to functional neural interface design, Advanced Functional Materials 28(12), 2018 (reference record read; no figures in the abstract). Wiley, Weinheim. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  27. 24Feng, Y. et al., Brain-computer interfaces: the dawn of a new era in disease treatment, Exploration 6(3), 2026 (reference record read: electrode biocompatibility and signal resolution named as challenges). Wiley, Beijing. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  28. 21Bublitz, C. et al., A moratorium on implantable non-medical neurotech until effects on the mind are properly understood, Neuroethics 18(3), article 46, 2025 (reference record read: proposes a mental impact assessment, a moratorium and a ban for children). Springer, Dordrecht. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  29. 19Szoszkiewicz, L. and Yuste, R., Mental privacy: navigating risks, rights and regulation, EMBO Reports 26(14), 3469 to 3473, published online 25 June 2025 (reference record read; no abstract beyond the subtitle). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  30. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hochberg, L.R. et al., Neuronal ensemble control of prosthetic devices by a human with tetraplegia, Nature 442, 164 to 171, 2006, cited from memory. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2006. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  31. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Collinger, J.L. et al., High-performance neuroprosthetic control by an individual with tetraplegia, The Lancet 381, 557 to 564, 2013, cited from memory. Elsevier, London. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  32. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Moses, D.A. et al., Neuroprosthesis for decoding speech in a paralyzed person with anarthria, New England Journal of Medicine 385, 217 to 227, 2021, cited from memory. Massachusetts Medical Society, Waltham. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  33. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Yuste, R. et al., Four ethical priorities for neurotechnologies and AI, Nature 551, 159 to 163, 2017, cited from memory. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  34. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ienca, M. and Andorno, R., Towards new human rights in the age of neuroscience and neurotechnology, Life Sciences, Society and Policy 13, 5, 2017, cited from memory. Springer, Berlin. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  35. 15Precision Neuroscience (ed.), company release on FDA 510(k) clearance of the Layer 7 Cortical Interface, 17 April 2025 (release read; vendor announcement, weak evidence: up to 30 days of implantation; 37 patients tested). Precision Neuroscience, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  36. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: trade reports of other company funding rounds in 2025 including a Series D for an endovascular interface company and a seed round for a new interface company, taken from search-result summaries; weak evidence and no figure used. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  37. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Neurorights Foundation (ed.), report on privacy practices of consumer neurotechnology companies, 2024, cited from memory without figures; the foundation page returned not found. Neurorights Foundation, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  38. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: report of January 2026 that Neuralink was enrolling 21 participants worldwide, taken from a search-result summary of a secondhand news item citing people familiar with the matter; weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 neurotechnology agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 neurotechnology edition.

5 min read0 figures6 tables4 notesNR-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. N-01

    Where does neural data from consumer devices sit outside medical-device and privacy rules, and which laws reach inferred data?

    INI-XT20-NDT-01 · neural data map; first output: jurisdiction overlay.

  2. N-02

    What power and heat budgets do implanted interfaces work within, and how do they limit channel counts?

    INI-XT20-PWR-02 · power and heat footprint; first output: budget table by platform.

  3. N-03

    Which materials and fabrication steps are single points of failure for electrodes and implants?

    INI-XT20-MAT-03 · materials and fabrication; first output: dependence map.

  4. N-04

    How can long-term device failure and signal loss be reported on a common basis?

    INI-XT20-DUR-04 · durability on a common basis; first output: failure table.

  5. N-05

    How can trial outcomes and company claims be compared on a common basis?

    INI-XT20-CLM-05 · claims on a common basis; first output: claims table.

  6. N-06

    Which national rules cover neural data, and how do they differ?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: rule overlay.

  7. N-07

    What clinical workforce exists for implantation, programming and follow-up?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. N-08

    Which readiness capabilities have been tested in real cases, and which are only planned?

    Readiness capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 neurotechnology portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-XT20-NDT-01Neural data mapInitiativeN-01PROPOSED
INI-XT20-PWR-02Power and heat footprintInitiativeN-02PROPOSED
INI-XT20-MAT-03Materials and fabricationInitiativeN-03PROPOSED
INI-XT20-DUR-04Durability on a common basisInitiativeN-04PROPOSED
INI-XT20-CLM-05Claims on a common basisInitiativeN-05PROPOSED
MSN-XT20-2027-01Consumer neural data Universe missionMissionN-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

The neurotechnology edition reads national readiness chapters, the coupled sector reports on health and cyber systems, and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the global health and cyber editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

  1. 01

    National readiness chapters

    neurotechnology and neural data readiness in each national edition

    IN PREPARATION · national baselines

  2. 02

    Sector couplings

    GS-04 health · GS-13 cyber and digital · XT-10 cryptography

    GS-04 DRAFTED · sector baselines

  3. 03

    Technology system model

    devices, power, materials, workforce, governance

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

  4. 04

    Strategic links

    SR-02 lifeline systems · SR-13 strategic technology

    PLANNED · strategic baselines

  5. 05

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

  6. 06

    XT-20 report

    this series

    BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

  7. 07

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the neurotechnology candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the neurotechnology candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 global annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-XT20-2027-01 · Consumer neural data Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
INF-001 · speech decodingINI-XT20-CLM-05claims on a common basisPUBLIC
INF-002 · accuracy over timeINI-XT20-DUR-04durability on a common basisPUBLIC
DAT-006 · inner speechINI-XT20-NDT-01neural data mapPUBLIC
GOV-007 · state and Chilean lawINI-XT20-NDT-01neural data mapPUBLIC
GOV-009 · MIND Actregional consortiarule overlayPUBLIC
GOV-010 · guidance and clearanceINI-XT20-PWR-02 · key F reviewpower and heat footprintPUBLIC
FIN-011 · funding and enrolmentINI-XT20-MAT-03materials and fabricationPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-XT20-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Preprint servers and journals on interface resultspeer review and preprintscontinuousINF-001
ClinicalTrials.gov entries for implanted interface studiesregistryper updateFIN-011
FDA guidance and clearance announcementsUS FDA and companiesper releaseGOV-010
State and federal neural data billslegislaturesper sessionGOV-009
UNESCO and OECD neurotechnology pagesintergovernmental bodiesper releaseGOV-008
Chinese industrial policy textsministriesper releaseGOV-005
Company announcements and funding reportscompanies and trade pressper eventFIN-011

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • annual publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-XT20-001Inner speech decoded in four participants5CORROBORATEDINF · DATresearch question N-01
SIG-XT20-002UNESCO Recommendation adopted in November 202510CORROBORATEDGOVinitiative N-01
SIG-XT20-003Company statements on participants and clearance1520PARTIALFIN · INFresearch question N-05

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5Kunz, E.M. et al., Inner speech in motor cortex and implications for speech neuroprostheses, Cell 188(17), 4658 to 4673, published online 14 August 2025 (reference record read: four participants). Cell Press, Cambridge MA. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 10UNESCO (ed.), Recommendation on the Ethics of Neurotechnology (page read: adopted November 2025 at the 43rd session of the General Conference; mandate entrusted by 194 Member States in 2023; the page states no neural data provisions). United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 15Precision Neuroscience (ed.), company release on FDA 510(k) clearance of the Layer 7 Cortical Interface, 17 April 2025 (release read; vendor announcement, weak evidence: up to 30 days of implantation; 37 patients tested). Precision Neuroscience, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 20Zeff, M., Elon Musk Neuralink closes a USD 650 million Series E (trade report, 2 June 2025; page read; vendor statement as reported: five people implanted; valuation of about USD 9 billion pre-money from an earlier press report). TechCrunch, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

13 min read0 figures5 tables40 notesNR-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

8.1Interface hardware and decoding platforms

Interfaces record from implanted electrodes, from the brain surface or from inside a blood vessel, and decode with trained models. Evidence is strongest where peer review exists, and weakest where claims rest on company statements.

256electrodes

intracortical arrays in the accuracy study3

16channels

endovascular array in the one-year study8

1year

stable operation of a fully implanted brain-spine interface7

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Intracortical arraysspeech decoded at 62 to 78 words per minute and 97.5% accuracy beyond eight months in single participants12346Reported
Endovascular arraysfive participants recorded for one year, preprint8Reported
Cortical-surface arraysa company reported clearance for up to 30 days; another reported an IDE for a two-participant early feasibility study in 2025, from company material1527Reported
Closed-loop stimulation and wearablesan adaptive deep brain stimulation system was reported in 2025; a wearable wrist interface paper and a visual prosthesis designation are from memory or trade summaries283244Inferred

Couplings

  • INF → HLT clinical benefit
  • INF → DAT neural signals as data
  • BIO ↔ INF tissue response

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • claims on a common basis
  • participants beyond single studies

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
  • XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
  • XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
  • XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

8.2Power, heat and data of implants

An implant must be powered, kept cool enough for tissue and moved off the body as data. No power or heat budget was bound in this edition.

256electrodes

channels recorded in the accuracy study3

16channels

endovascular array8

10USD million

FTC study authorisation in the MIND Act11

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Power and chargingno budget bound; guidance asks for non-clinical testing of implanted interfaces9NOT BOUND
Heatno limit or measurement bound; an implantable neurostimulator standard exists, from memory40NOT BOUND
Data volume and radio linkschannel counts known for two studies; data rates not bound38Inferred
Cooling waterno documented coupling9Expert input

Couplings

  • ENE → INF implant power
  • INF → BIO heat and tissue
  • INF → DAT data off the body

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • power and heat budgets by platform
  • data rates and radio limits

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
  • XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
  • XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
  • XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

8.3Materials, durability and fabrication

Electrodes sit in tissue for years. Signal loss, drift and biocompatibility are open problems in the literature, and fabrication dependence is not bound here.

1year

one-year stability reported for two interfaces78

2018roadmap

materials roadmap for neural interfaces23

2026review

biocompatibility named as a main challenge24

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Electrode materialsa materials roadmap for neural interfaces exists23Reported
Biocompatibilitylong-term biocompatibility and signal resolution remain to be improved24Reported
Decoder driftaccuracy falls as neurons turn over; methods correct for it22Reported
Fabricationcapacity by country not bound; policy targets name electrodes and chips16Inferred

Couplings

  • BIO ↔ INF biocompatibility
  • MIN → INF materials
  • TRD → INF industrial policy

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • device failure rates
  • materials dependence by platform

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
  • XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
  • XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
  • XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

8.4Economy, investment and workforce

Company rounds are large and rest on company statements. Market size depends on definition, and workforce numbers are not bound.

650USD million

company round, 202520

15participants

estimated enrolment, PRIME registry entry13

2030target year

Chinese industry targets16

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Company fundinga USD 650 million round in June 2025 with a press-reported pre-money valuation of about USD 9 billion; other rounds are reported in trade summaries2030Reported
Trial scaleregistry estimate of 15; company statement of 5 in June 2025; a January 2026 report of 21 is secondhand132026Reported
Market sizetrade sources differ widely by definition; none bound29NOT BOUND
Industry policytwo to three cluster zones by 2027 and two to three leading enterprises by 203016Reported

Couplings

  • FIN → INF scale-up
  • GOV → FIN industrial policy
  • HLT → INF clinical workforce

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • market size on a common definition
  • workforce size and skills gaps

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
  • XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
  • XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
  • XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

8.5Neural data, security and governance watch

The nearest effect of neurotechnology on other systems is on privacy law. Rules differ by place, and several apply only to data used for identification.

4states

named by Senate sponsors as having neural data laws12

2025adopted

UNESCO Recommendation10

2021amended

Chilean constitution, Law 21.3831718

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Global ethicsUNESCO Recommendation adopted November 2025; OECD Recommendation of 2019 from memory1031Reported
United States federalFDA guidance of 2021; MIND Act bill in committee91112Reported
United States statesColorado in force 7 August 2024; California in force 1 January 2025 per search summaries; Montana and Connecticut named by sponsors142541Reported
Chile and othersconstitutional rule, 2023 deletion order, pending neurorights bill; inferred data a grey zone; EU rules from memory1718423943Reported
Advocacy and ethicsproposals for a moratorium on non-medical implants and a mental privacy framework; a 2024 consumer report named from memory1921333435Reported

Couplings

  • INF → DAT neural data
  • GOV → DAT rules
  • GOV → FIN compliance cost

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • text of national laws
  • consumer practices by company

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
  • XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
  • XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
  • XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 3Card, N.S. et al., An accurate and rapidly calibrating speech neuroprosthesis, medRxiv preprint, 26 December 2023 (preprint record read: 99.6% on 50 words on day 1; 90.2% on 125,000 words on day 2; 97.5% beyond eight months; 256 electrodes; the record notes the New England Journal of Medicine version 391(7), 609 to 618, August 2024). Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 8Chetty, N. et al., Signal properties and stability of a chronically implanted endovascular brain computer interface, medRxiv preprint, 25 September 2025 (preprint record read: five participants; 16-channel array; one year; not peer reviewed). Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 7Lorach, H. et al., Walking naturally after spinal cord injury using a brain-spine interface, Nature 618(7963), 126 to 133, published online 24 May 2023 (reference record read: fully implanted; stable for over one year; one man with chronic tetraplegia). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 1Willett, F.R. et al., A high-performance speech neuroprosthesis, Nature 620(7976), 1031 to 1036, published online 23 August 2023 (reference record read: 62 words per minute; 23.8% word error rate on 125,000 words; 9.1% on 50 words). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 2Metzger, S.L. et al., A high-performance neuroprosthesis for speech decoding and avatar control, Nature 620(7976), 1037 to 1046, published online 23 August 2023 (reference record read: median 78 words per minute; median word error rate 25%). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 4Wairagkar, M. et al., An instantaneous voice synthesis neuroprosthesis, bioRxiv preprint, 19 August 2024 (preprint record read: 256 microelectrodes, one participant with ALS; no quantitative scores in the abstract; the record notes Nature 644(8075), 145 to 152, 2025). Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 6Willett, F.R., Avansino, D.T., Hochberg, L.R., Henderson, J.M. and Shenoy, K.V., High-performance brain-to-text communication via handwriting, Nature 593(7858), 249 to 254, published online 12 May 2021 (reference record read: 90 characters per minute; 94.1% raw online accuracy). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 15Precision Neuroscience (ed.), company release on FDA 510(k) clearance of the Layer 7 Cortical Interface, 17 April 2025 (release read; vendor announcement, weak evidence: up to 30 days of implantation; 37 patients tested). Precision Neuroscience, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Paradromics (ed.), company statements on an FDA investigational device exemption for the Connect-One early feasibility study (November 2025, two initial participants) and a first implant at a university hospital, taken from search-result summaries of vendor announcements; weak evidence. Paradromics, Austin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Medtronic (ed.), FDA approval of the BrainSense adaptive deep brain stimulation system for Parkinson disease, February 2025, taken from search-result summaries of trade coverage and a company announcement; weak evidence. Medtronic, Dublin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Meta Reality Labs research team, paper on a wrist-worn electromyography interface for generic human-computer interaction, Nature 2025, cited from memory; the Nature page redirected to an access check. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Neuralink company announcement of an FDA breakthrough device designation for a visual prosthesis, 2024, cited from memory; vendor announcement, weak evidence. Neuralink, Fremont. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 11United States Senate (ed.), Management of Individuals Neural Data Act of 2025 (MIND Act), S. 2925, 119th Congress, introduced text (text read: FTC study and report within one year of enactment; USD 10 million authorised; referred to committee). US Government Publishing Office, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 9US Food and Drug Administration (ed.), Implanted Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) Devices for Patients with Paralysis or Amputation: Non-clinical Testing and Clinical Considerations, final guidance, May 2021 (guidance page read). Center for Devices and Radiological Health, Silver Spring. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO (ed.), ISO 14708-3, Implants for surgery: active implantable medical devices, part 3, implantable neurostimulators, cited from memory without figures. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 23Wellman, S.M. et al., A materials roadmap to functional neural interface design, Advanced Functional Materials 28(12), 2018 (reference record read; no figures in the abstract). Wiley, Weinheim. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 24Feng, Y. et al., Brain-computer interfaces: the dawn of a new era in disease treatment, Exploration 6(3), 2026 (reference record read: electrode biocompatibility and signal resolution named as challenges). Wiley, Beijing. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 22Ma, X. et al., Using adversarial networks to extend brain computer interface decoding accuracy over time, eLife 12, e84296, 2023 (reference record read). eLife Sciences, Cambridge. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 16Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other bodies (eds.), Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Innovation and Development of the Brain-Computer Interface Industry, MIIT (2025) No. 164, 23 July 2025, English translation by the Center for Security and Emerging Technology, 18 December 2025 (translation page read). Georgetown University, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 20Zeff, M., Elon Musk Neuralink closes a USD 650 million Series E (trade report, 2 June 2025; page read; vendor statement as reported: five people implanted; valuation of about USD 9 billion pre-money from an earlier press report). TechCrunch, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 13ClinicalTrials.gov (ed.), PRIME: An Early Feasibility Study of a Precise Robotically Implanted Brain-Computer Interface for the Control of External Devices, NCT06429735 (record read: recruiting; start 9 January 2024; estimated enrolment 15; updated January 2026; sponsor-supplied entry). National Library of Medicine, Bethesda. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: trade reports of other company funding rounds in 2025 including a Series D for an endovascular interface company and a seed round for a new interface company, taken from search-result summaries; weak evidence and no figure used. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: report of January 2026 that Neuralink was enrolling 21 participants worldwide, taken from a search-result summary of a secondhand news item citing people familiar with the matter; weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  24. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: market-research reports on the neurotechnology and brain-computer interface markets for 2025 (several firms; figures differ by a large factor depending on definition), taken from search-result summaries; weak evidence and no figure used. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  25. 12US Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation (ed.), release on the introduction of the MIND Act, 24 September 2025 (release read: names Colorado, California, Montana and Connecticut as states with neural data laws). US Senate, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  26. 10UNESCO (ed.), Recommendation on the Ethics of Neurotechnology (page read: adopted November 2025 at the 43rd session of the General Conference; mandate entrusted by 194 Member States in 2023; the page states no neural data provisions). United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  27. 17Cornejo-Plaza, M.I., Cippitani, R. and Pasquino, V., Chilean Supreme Court ruling on the protection of brain activity: neurorights, personal data protection, and neurodata, Frontiers in Psychology 15, 27 February 2024 (reference record read). Frontiers Media, Lausanne. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  28. 18Lee, B.H., Even Chile neurorights leave inferred mental data in a gray zone, Stanford Law School Law and Biosciences Blog, 27 April 2026 (blog page read; commentary, not a legal text). Stanford University, Stanford. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  29. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Recommendation of the Council on Responsible Innovation in Neurotechnology, 2019, cited from memory. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  30. 14Colorado General Assembly (ed.), HB24-1058 Protect Privacy of Biological Data (bill page read: signed 17 April 2024; effective 7 August 2024). Colorado General Assembly, Denver. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  31. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: California Senate Bill 1223 (Becker), consumer privacy: sensitive personal information: neural data, signed 27 September 2024, in force 1 January 2025, taken from search-result summaries; the legislature page returned an access error. California Legislature, Sacramento. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  32. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Montana and Connecticut state laws on neural data, named in the Senate release [12] and in search-result summaries; texts not opened. State legislatures, Helena and Hartford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  33. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Republic of Chile, Law 21.383 amending Article 19 of the Constitution on scientific and technological development and brain activity, 2021, reported in references 17 and 18; text not opened. Biblioteca del Congreso Nacional, Santiago. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  34. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Union, Regulation (EU) 2017/745 on medical devices, Annex XVI on products without an intended medical purpose (includes equipment for brain stimulation), cited from memory. Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  35. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Union, Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 (Artificial Intelligence Act), Article 5 on prohibited practices including emotion recognition in workplaces and education, cited from memory. Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  36. 19Szoszkiewicz, L. and Yuste, R., Mental privacy: navigating risks, rights and regulation, EMBO Reports 26(14), 3469 to 3473, published online 25 June 2025 (reference record read; no abstract beyond the subtitle). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  37. 21Bublitz, C. et al., A moratorium on implantable non-medical neurotech until effects on the mind are properly understood, Neuroethics 18(3), article 46, 2025 (reference record read: proposes a mental impact assessment, a moratorium and a ban for children). Springer, Dordrecht. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  38. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Neurorights Foundation (ed.), report on privacy practices of consumer neurotechnology companies, 2024, cited from memory without figures; the foundation page returned not found. Neurorights Foundation, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  39. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Yuste, R. et al., Four ethical priorities for neurotechnologies and AI, Nature 551, 159 to 163, 2017, cited from memory. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  40. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ienca, M. and Andorno, R., Towards new human rights in the age of neuroscience and neurotechnology, Life Sciences, Society and Policy 13, 5, 2017, cited from memory. Springer, Berlin. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

13 min read0 figures13 tables17 notesNR-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.DerivationCalculationResult
(1)Ratio of median rate in2 to rate in178 ÷ 62about 1.3 times
(2)Gap between1 and natural conversation as stated in1160 ÷ 62about 2.6 times
(3)Months from preprint to journal version of the accuracy study3December 2023 to August 20248 months
(4)Share of the 2025 round in the reported pre-money valuation20650 ÷ 9,000about 7%
Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
StrengthDefinition
STRONGa disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region
MODERATEan effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAKan effect is plausible but not documented at global scale
Table A.3Status grammar
LabelRule
Reportedvalue as issued by its source, with year
Inferredreasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
EstimatedNexus analytical value with stated method
Scenarioconditional on stated assumptions
Expert inputstructured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card, Neurotechnology System Model v0

Model ID
MDL-XT20-NEURO · v0.1
Purpose
represent neurotechnology as clinical hardware and a source of neural data coupled to health, materials, finance, workforce and privacy
Family
graph-based system of systems
Inputs
the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method
expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
Validation
none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
Uncertainty
qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity
global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
Reproducibility
strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings

typed in v0

0strong

documented within one season

0moderate

documented, buffered

20weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID
DC-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-B0
Type
baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy
pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned
44 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
Model runs
none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest
computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes
nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by
the 2027 neurotechnology annual cut

Lineage

  1. 01

    source edition

  2. 02

    pinned citation

  3. 03

    finding

  4. 04

    page

  5. 05

    publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
ElementBaseline 20262027 global annual
Sourcescited global publications, pinned by editionnational, regional and sector cuts through one graph
Analysisstated methods and editorial estimatestyped analysis specifications
ModelsNeurotechnology System Model v0 specificationmodel runs with receipts
Findingstwelve baseline findingsfindings re-bound to federation evidence
Reviewfive passes scheduledfive passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
IndicatorObservedReleasedCadenceNext release
Speech decoding papers2023Aug 2023one-offfollow-up papers
Speech accuracy over time2023 preprint · 2024 journalDec 2023 · Aug 2024one-offmore participants
Brain-spine interface2023May 2023one-offlonger follow-up
Endovascular study2025Sep 2025one-offpeer-reviewed version
PRIME registry entry2026Jan 2026continuousnext update
US neural data bill2025Sep 2025per sessioncommittee action
UNESCO Recommendation2025Nov 2025one-offnational uptake
Chinese implementation opinion2025Jul 2025periodic2027 milestones
Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
SystemCoverageThinnest dimension
HardwarePARTIALfailure rates on a common basis
ClinicPARTIALoutcomes beyond one year
Neural dataPARTIALconsumer practices
GovernancePARTIALtext of national laws
InvestmentTHINmarket size and public funding
Energy and heatTHINpower and heat budgets
SkillsTHINworkforce numbers
MaterialsTHINdependence by platform
Table A.7Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why
FieldSource that would fill itBlocker
Power and heat budgets of implanted interfacesdevice makers, regulators, peer-reviewed engineering papersno figure retrieved; the search for heating and power limits returned no quantitative source
Market size on a common definitionindustry statistics and audited company reports29trade sources give widely different figures by definition; none was opened
Clinical workforce for implantation, programming and follow-upnational statistics, professional bodiesnot retrieved; capability rung stays LISTED
Long-term failure and explant rates across platformstrial reports, registries, manufacturersonly one-year results read78; no common reporting
Number of participants implanted per companycompany reports and registry updates132026company statement of 5 in June 2025; a January 2026 report of 21 is secondhand and unverified
Peer-reviewed results for company-announced devicesjournals for each company claim1527company releases only; no paper located
Consumer neural data practices by companyregulators, advocacy and academic audits33report not opened; no figure used
Text of California, Montana and Connecticut neural data lawsstate legislature sites2541California page returned an access error; the others not retrieved
Public funding totals for neurotechnology programmesministries, research councilsthe national research programme budget page returned an access error
Electrode materials and fabrication dependence by platformindustry and trade statisticsonly a 2018 materials roadmap abstract read23
Status of the MIND Act after referral to committeecongressional recordstatus read from bill text and a release only
Reimbursement and access to implants by countryhealth ministries, insurersnot reviewed
Wearable and non-invasive interface deployment datacompanies, regulatorsone paper named from memory32; no figure used
Capability rungs beyond guidance and planningagencies, hospitals, laboratoriesnot reviewed

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Published in Nature 620 (2023) by a Stanford-led group. One-off study. Role: binds INF-001 and the speech tiles. Coverage: one participant with ALS and four intracortical arrays.

EVD-XT20-001

A high-performance speech neuroprosthesis1

Introduced in the US Senate in 2025 as S. 2925. One-off text. Role: binds GOV-009. Coverage: US federal study of neural data; status was committee referral.

EVD-XT20-002

MIND Act of 2025 bill text11

Table A.8Quality dimensions at baseline
DimensionEVD-XT20-001EVD-XT20-002
Completenessone participant; 50-word and 125,000-word vocabulariesfull bill text; later status not read
Timelinesspublished online 23 August 2023introduced 2025
Revisionsingle paper versionamendments possible in committee
Method transparencymethods and data in the papertext public
External validationpeer reviewlegislative process

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

  • Willett et al.1: replication in more participants
  • Chetty et al.8: peer-reviewed version
  • MIND Act11: committee action
  • Registry entry13: updated enrolment

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.9Publication acceptance record
GroupAreaItemsPassN/APending
D1Identity and scope8800
D2Source and data12912
D3Analysis and models12381
D4Findings and claims9801
D5Figures, tables, maps10622
D6Editorial and citations10802
D7Review and approval130013
D8Artefact and design12705
D9Registry and release9009

Publication gate

Conditions met
14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems
none recorded
Open conditions
reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs
first runs in Q1 2027
Maps
plates in Q2 2027
Waivers
none

A.7Status words

Table A.10The status every value carries
StatusWhat it means
ObservedMeasured directly and published by the source.
ReportedPublished statistics of an official or institutional source.
DeclaredStated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
EstimatedA Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
ModelledProduced by a stated model from cited inputs.
InferredReasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
ForecastA projection by the cited source.
SimulatedA simulation result under stated assumptions.
ScenarioA conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert inputExpert judgement, recorded with its basis.
CandidateProposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Evidence arrives from the pillarsFoundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealedOn the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembledThe edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turnAt the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opensA named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and depositedThe PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on its desk’s siteOnly then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.
08 Corrections go to StandardsMethod and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.11Series terms
TermMeaning
Baseline Editionthe inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+Bwater, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Couplinga typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gapthe share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladderLISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQLevidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cuta frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWGNational Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups
Table A.12Abbreviations used in this edition
AbbreviationExpansion
ALSamyotrophic lateral sclerosis
BCIbrain-computer interface
DBSdeep brain stimulation
EFSearly feasibility study
FDAUS Food and Drug Administration
FTCUS Federal Trade Commission
IDEinvestigational device exemption
MINDManagement of Individuals Neural Data
MIITMinistry of Industry and Information Technology of China
PRIMEPrecise Robotically Implanted Brain-Computer Interface study
UNESCOUnited Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
WERword error rate

A.10Technical annex

Table A.13Technical annex
ItemAnnexContentsStatus
A.1Indicator definitionsthe global indicator set, with units and sourcesIN THIS EDITION
A.2Coupling strengthsthe twenty-cell matrix and its rationaleIN THIS EDITION
A.3Scenario specificationSCN-XT20-NDT-01 assumptions and signpostsIN THIS EDITION
A.4Capability placementsrung evidence for fifteen functionsIN THIS EDITION
A.5Model diagnosticsfirst runs and validation2027
A.6Sensitivity analysesinfluence of coupling strengths2027
A.7Cluster notescards for the major clinical interface clusters2027
A.8Review statementspass-by-pass review recordAT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition: word error rate

Construct
share of decoded words that differ from the words the participant intended to say
Unit
percent
Method
attempted speech decoded by a trained model from implanted electrode signals, scored against the intended sentences
Source
Nature 620 (2023)12
Uncertainty
as reported by the authors; not restated here
Known limits
one participant per study; sentences and vocabulary set by the researchers

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 2Metzger, S.L. et al., A high-performance neuroprosthesis for speech decoding and avatar control, Nature 620(7976), 1037 to 1046, published online 23 August 2023 (reference record read: median 78 words per minute; median word error rate 25%). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 1Willett, F.R. et al., A high-performance speech neuroprosthesis, Nature 620(7976), 1031 to 1036, published online 23 August 2023 (reference record read: 62 words per minute; 23.8% word error rate on 125,000 words; 9.1% on 50 words). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 3Card, N.S. et al., An accurate and rapidly calibrating speech neuroprosthesis, medRxiv preprint, 26 December 2023 (preprint record read: 99.6% on 50 words on day 1; 90.2% on 125,000 words on day 2; 97.5% beyond eight months; 256 electrodes; the record notes the New England Journal of Medicine version 391(7), 609 to 618, August 2024). Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 20Zeff, M., Elon Musk Neuralink closes a USD 650 million Series E (trade report, 2 June 2025; page read; vendor statement as reported: five people implanted; valuation of about USD 9 billion pre-money from an earlier press report). TechCrunch, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: market-research reports on the neurotechnology and brain-computer interface markets for 2025 (several firms; figures differ by a large factor depending on definition), taken from search-result summaries; weak evidence and no figure used. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 7Lorach, H. et al., Walking naturally after spinal cord injury using a brain-spine interface, Nature 618(7963), 126 to 133, published online 24 May 2023 (reference record read: fully implanted; stable for over one year; one man with chronic tetraplegia). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 8Chetty, N. et al., Signal properties and stability of a chronically implanted endovascular brain computer interface, medRxiv preprint, 25 September 2025 (preprint record read: five participants; 16-channel array; one year; not peer reviewed). Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 13ClinicalTrials.gov (ed.), PRIME: An Early Feasibility Study of a Precise Robotically Implanted Brain-Computer Interface for the Control of External Devices, NCT06429735 (record read: recruiting; start 9 January 2024; estimated enrolment 15; updated January 2026; sponsor-supplied entry). National Library of Medicine, Bethesda. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: report of January 2026 that Neuralink was enrolling 21 participants worldwide, taken from a search-result summary of a secondhand news item citing people familiar with the matter; weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 15Precision Neuroscience (ed.), company release on FDA 510(k) clearance of the Layer 7 Cortical Interface, 17 April 2025 (release read; vendor announcement, weak evidence: up to 30 days of implantation; 37 patients tested). Precision Neuroscience, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Paradromics (ed.), company statements on an FDA investigational device exemption for the Connect-One early feasibility study (November 2025, two initial participants) and a first implant at a university hospital, taken from search-result summaries of vendor announcements; weak evidence. Paradromics, Austin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Neurorights Foundation (ed.), report on privacy practices of consumer neurotechnology companies, 2024, cited from memory without figures; the foundation page returned not found. Neurorights Foundation, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: California Senate Bill 1223 (Becker), consumer privacy: sensitive personal information: neural data, signed 27 September 2024, in force 1 January 2025, taken from search-result summaries; the legislature page returned an access error. California Legislature, Sacramento. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Montana and Connecticut state laws on neural data, named in the Senate release [12] and in search-result summaries; texts not opened. State legislatures, Helena and Hartford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 23Wellman, S.M. et al., A materials roadmap to functional neural interface design, Advanced Functional Materials 28(12), 2018 (reference record read; no figures in the abstract). Wiley, Weinheim. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Meta Reality Labs research team, paper on a wrist-worn electromyography interface for generic human-computer interaction, Nature 2025, cited from memory; the Nature page redirected to an access check. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 11United States Senate (ed.), Management of Individuals Neural Data Act of 2025 (MIND Act), S. 2925, 119th Congress, introduced text (text read: FTC study and report within one year of enactment; USD 10 million authorised; referred to committee). US Government Publishing Office, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Data appendix

The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

10 min read0 figures8 tables17 notesNR-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

B.1The indicator set

Table B.1Global baseline indicator set
IndicatorValueUnitYearStateSource
Speech decoding rate, large vocabulary62words per minute2023Reported1
Word error rate, 125,000 words23.8%2023Reported1
Word error rate, 50 words9.1%2023Reported1
Median speech decoding rate78words per minute2023Reported2
Median word error rate25%2023Reported2
Accuracy beyond eight months, 125,000 words97.5%2023Reported3
Electrodes in the accuracy study256electrodes2023Reported3
Handwriting decoding rate90characters per minute2021Reported6
Participants in the inner speech study4participants2025Reported5
Participants in the endovascular study5participants2025Reported8
Channels in the endovascular array16channels2025Reported8
Estimated enrolment in PRIME15participants2026Reported13
Participants implanted, company statement5participants2025Reported20
Neuralink round650USD million2025Reported20
FTC study authorisation in the MIND Act10USD million2025Reported11
Maximum implantation duration in the cleared array30days2025Reported15

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

  • INF
  • DAT
  • HLT
  • FIN
  • GOV
  • BIO
  • TRD
  • MIN
  • ENE
  • AIC
Table B.3Global source register
SourceCategoryCoveragePeriodCadenceRole
Willett et al. in Nature1peer-reviewed journalone participant2023one-offspeech decoding
Metzger et al. in Nature2peer-reviewed journalone participant2023one-offspeech and avatar
Card et al. record3preprint server recordone participant2023one-offaccuracy
Kunz et al. in Cell5peer-reviewed journalfour participants2025one-offinner speech
Lorach et al. in Nature7peer-reviewed journalone participant2023one-offbrain-spine interface
Chetty et al.8preprint serverfive participants2025one-offendovascular
FDA guidance9national regulatorUS2021one-offtesting
UNESCO page10intergovernmental bodyglobal2025one-offethics
Registry entry13trial registryone study2026continuousenrolment
Chinese implementation opinion, translated16translation of a ministry textChina2025one-offtargets

B.3Regional reading, neurotechnology across ten clusters

Regional plates follow with the regional editions. This page gives the regional reading of neurotechnology and neural data in table form and ranks no region.

Table B.4Regional reading, neurotechnology across ten clusters
RegionPrincipal hazardsSystems most exposedBaseline evidence
North Americaclinical trials; federal guidance; state neural data lawsdevices, data lawFDA9; Colorado14; Senate11
South Americaconstitutional neurorights in Chiledata lawChilean sources1718
Europemedical device rules and research programmesregulationregional evidence (not bound)
Eurasiaresearch programmesresearchregional evidence (not bound)
Middle East and North Africano evidence boundnot boundregional evidence (not bound)
Africaaccess and skillsworkforceregional evidence (not bound)
South Asiano evidence boundnot boundregional evidence (not bound)
East Asiaindustrial policy targets for 2027 and 2030industry policyChinese opinion16
ASEANno evidence boundnot boundregional evidence (not bound)
Oceania-Pacificno evidence boundnot boundregional evidence (not bound)

B.4Cluster card: speech neuroprosthesis research network

  • speech
  • intracortical arrays
  • single participants
  • inner speech
Systems in view
implanted arrays, decoders, clinical teams, participants with paralysis
Defining events
two Nature papers of August 202312
Couplings
INF → HLT clinical benefit; INF → DAT inner speech
Capability evidence
long-term accuracy and inner speech safeguards reported35
Gaps
participants beyond one or four; home use; durability
Agenda items
N-04 · N-05

Speech decoders reached 62 and 78 words per minute in single participants with paralysis [1] [2].

CLINIC

Speech from attempted speaking

Imagined sentences were decoded in four participants, and the authors propose safeguards against unintended decoding [5].

DATA

Inner speech

Accuracy of 97.5% beyond eight months was reported for one participant; drift remains a studied problem [3] [22].

DURABILITY

Months after implantation

B.5How countries appear in the neurotechnology edition

Countries enter the neurotechnology edition through the readiness chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ranked.

Table B.5How countries appear in the neurotechnology edition
Card fieldWhat it showsSource
WEFH+B stateeach core system against peer distribution bandsnational edition
Couplingsthe national dependency matrixnational edition
Risk objectsthe national risk portfolionational edition
Capability rungsthe national capability laddernational edition
Evidence ageoldest and newest source datesnational source register

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

26national

countries and unions

10regional

clusters

16global

flagship and sector

14strategic

systems reports

20frontier

technology reports

How to read a country card

  • Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
  • Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
  • Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
  • Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such
Table B.6National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme
WaveCountries and unionsState
W0CanadaISSUED
W1United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, SwitzerlandPLANNED
W2Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Türkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, AustraliaPLANNED

B.6Licences

Table B.7Licences of each kind of material
MaterialLicence
TextCC BY 4.0
Dataon the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0
FiguresNexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited
Mapsboundary source and licence printed on each plate
MetadataCC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it
Third-party data, figures and textThe source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed
Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.

B.7Formats and provenance

Table B.8This edition in every format
FormatKindStateWhat it isIdentifier
Web editionHTMLOn this siteDraft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.NR-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Print editionPDFAt releaseA4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.NR-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Indicator dataCSV · JSONOn this site16 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.NR-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1
FiguresSVG · PNGOn this site4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.FIG-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-*
SlidesPDFNot recordedNo slide deck is recorded for this edition.
Evidence briefHTML · PDFNot recordedNo evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
Dataset with DOIDataCiteAt releaseConcept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

Provenance

Edition pack
The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
Evidence cut
DC-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026
Reproducibility
sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Self-check
14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
Review
five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Publisher of record
GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Corrections
Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Willett, F.R. et al., A high-performance speech neuroprosthesis, Nature 620(7976), 1031 to 1036, published online 23 August 2023 (reference record read: 62 words per minute; 23.8% word error rate on 125,000 words; 9.1% on 50 words). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2Metzger, S.L. et al., A high-performance neuroprosthesis for speech decoding and avatar control, Nature 620(7976), 1037 to 1046, published online 23 August 2023 (reference record read: median 78 words per minute; median word error rate 25%). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 3Card, N.S. et al., An accurate and rapidly calibrating speech neuroprosthesis, medRxiv preprint, 26 December 2023 (preprint record read: 99.6% on 50 words on day 1; 90.2% on 125,000 words on day 2; 97.5% beyond eight months; 256 electrodes; the record notes the New England Journal of Medicine version 391(7), 609 to 618, August 2024). Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 6Willett, F.R., Avansino, D.T., Hochberg, L.R., Henderson, J.M. and Shenoy, K.V., High-performance brain-to-text communication via handwriting, Nature 593(7858), 249 to 254, published online 12 May 2021 (reference record read: 90 characters per minute; 94.1% raw online accuracy). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 5Kunz, E.M. et al., Inner speech in motor cortex and implications for speech neuroprostheses, Cell 188(17), 4658 to 4673, published online 14 August 2025 (reference record read: four participants). Cell Press, Cambridge MA. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 8Chetty, N. et al., Signal properties and stability of a chronically implanted endovascular brain computer interface, medRxiv preprint, 25 September 2025 (preprint record read: five participants; 16-channel array; one year; not peer reviewed). Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 13ClinicalTrials.gov (ed.), PRIME: An Early Feasibility Study of a Precise Robotically Implanted Brain-Computer Interface for the Control of External Devices, NCT06429735 (record read: recruiting; start 9 January 2024; estimated enrolment 15; updated January 2026; sponsor-supplied entry). National Library of Medicine, Bethesda. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 20Zeff, M., Elon Musk Neuralink closes a USD 650 million Series E (trade report, 2 June 2025; page read; vendor statement as reported: five people implanted; valuation of about USD 9 billion pre-money from an earlier press report). TechCrunch, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 11United States Senate (ed.), Management of Individuals Neural Data Act of 2025 (MIND Act), S. 2925, 119th Congress, introduced text (text read: FTC study and report within one year of enactment; USD 10 million authorised; referred to committee). US Government Publishing Office, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 15Precision Neuroscience (ed.), company release on FDA 510(k) clearance of the Layer 7 Cortical Interface, 17 April 2025 (release read; vendor announcement, weak evidence: up to 30 days of implantation; 37 patients tested). Precision Neuroscience, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 7Lorach, H. et al., Walking naturally after spinal cord injury using a brain-spine interface, Nature 618(7963), 126 to 133, published online 24 May 2023 (reference record read: fully implanted; stable for over one year; one man with chronic tetraplegia). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 9US Food and Drug Administration (ed.), Implanted Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) Devices for Patients with Paralysis or Amputation: Non-clinical Testing and Clinical Considerations, final guidance, May 2021 (guidance page read). Center for Devices and Radiological Health, Silver Spring. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 10UNESCO (ed.), Recommendation on the Ethics of Neurotechnology (page read: adopted November 2025 at the 43rd session of the General Conference; mandate entrusted by 194 Member States in 2023; the page states no neural data provisions). United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 16Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other bodies (eds.), Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Innovation and Development of the Brain-Computer Interface Industry, MIIT (2025) No. 164, 23 July 2025, English translation by the Center for Security and Emerging Technology, 18 December 2025 (translation page read). Georgetown University, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 14Colorado General Assembly (ed.), HB24-1058 Protect Privacy of Biological Data (bill page read: signed 17 April 2024; effective 7 August 2024). Colorado General Assembly, Denver. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 17Cornejo-Plaza, M.I., Cippitani, R. and Pasquino, V., Chilean Supreme Court ruling on the protection of brain activity: neurorights, personal data protection, and neurodata, Frontiers in Psychology 15, 27 February 2024 (reference record read). Frontiers Media, Lausanne. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 18Lee, B.H., Even Chile neurorights leave inferred mental data in a gray zone, Stanford Law School Law and Biosciences Blog, 27 April 2026 (blog page read; commentary, not a legal text). Stanford University, Stanford. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

15 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

C.144 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1Willett, F.R. et al., A high-performance speech neuroprosthesis, Nature 620(7976), 1031 to 1036, published online 23 August 2023 (reference record read: 62 words per minute; 23.8% word error rate on 125,000 words; 9.1% on 50 words). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  2. 2Metzger, S.L. et al., A high-performance neuroprosthesis for speech decoding and avatar control, Nature 620(7976), 1037 to 1046, published online 23 August 2023 (reference record read: median 78 words per minute; median word error rate 25%). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  3. 3Card, N.S. et al., An accurate and rapidly calibrating speech neuroprosthesis, medRxiv preprint, 26 December 2023 (preprint record read: 99.6% on 50 words on day 1; 90.2% on 125,000 words on day 2; 97.5% beyond eight months; 256 electrodes; the record notes the New England Journal of Medicine version 391(7), 609 to 618, August 2024). Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  4. 4Wairagkar, M. et al., An instantaneous voice synthesis neuroprosthesis, bioRxiv preprint, 19 August 2024 (preprint record read: 256 microelectrodes, one participant with ALS; no quantitative scores in the abstract; the record notes Nature 644(8075), 145 to 152, 2025). Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  5. 5Kunz, E.M. et al., Inner speech in motor cortex and implications for speech neuroprostheses, Cell 188(17), 4658 to 4673, published online 14 August 2025 (reference record read: four participants). Cell Press, Cambridge MA. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7
  6. 6Willett, F.R., Avansino, D.T., Hochberg, L.R., Henderson, J.M. and Shenoy, K.V., High-performance brain-to-text communication via handwriting, Nature 593(7858), 249 to 254, published online 12 May 2021 (reference record read: 90 characters per minute; 94.1% raw online accuracy). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  7. 7Lorach, H. et al., Walking naturally after spinal cord injury using a brain-spine interface, Nature 618(7963), 126 to 133, published online 24 May 2023 (reference record read: fully implanted; stable for over one year; one man with chronic tetraplegia). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  8. 8Chetty, N. et al., Signal properties and stability of a chronically implanted endovascular brain computer interface, medRxiv preprint, 25 September 2025 (preprint record read: five participants; 16-channel array; one year; not peer reviewed). Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  9. 9US Food and Drug Administration (ed.), Implanted Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) Devices for Patients with Paralysis or Amputation: Non-clinical Testing and Clinical Considerations, final guidance, May 2021 (guidance page read). Center for Devices and Radiological Health, Silver Spring. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  10. 10UNESCO (ed.), Recommendation on the Ethics of Neurotechnology (page read: adopted November 2025 at the 43rd session of the General Conference; mandate entrusted by 194 Member States in 2023; the page states no neural data provisions). United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  11. 11United States Senate (ed.), Management of Individuals Neural Data Act of 2025 (MIND Act), S. 2925, 119th Congress, introduced text (text read: FTC study and report within one year of enactment; USD 10 million authorised; referred to committee). US Government Publishing Office, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  12. 12US Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation (ed.), release on the introduction of the MIND Act, 24 September 2025 (release read: names Colorado, California, Montana and Connecticut as states with neural data laws). US Senate, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  13. 13ClinicalTrials.gov (ed.), PRIME: An Early Feasibility Study of a Precise Robotically Implanted Brain-Computer Interface for the Control of External Devices, NCT06429735 (record read: recruiting; start 9 January 2024; estimated enrolment 15; updated January 2026; sponsor-supplied entry). National Library of Medicine, Bethesda. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
  14. 14Colorado General Assembly (ed.), HB24-1058 Protect Privacy of Biological Data (bill page read: signed 17 April 2024; effective 7 August 2024). Colorado General Assembly, Denver. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  15. 15Precision Neuroscience (ed.), company release on FDA 510(k) clearance of the Layer 7 Cortical Interface, 17 April 2025 (release read; vendor announcement, weak evidence: up to 30 days of implantation; 37 patients tested). Precision Neuroscience, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  16. 16Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other bodies (eds.), Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Innovation and Development of the Brain-Computer Interface Industry, MIIT (2025) No. 164, 23 July 2025, English translation by the Center for Security and Emerging Technology, 18 December 2025 (translation page read). Georgetown University, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  17. 17Cornejo-Plaza, M.I., Cippitani, R. and Pasquino, V., Chilean Supreme Court ruling on the protection of brain activity: neurorights, personal data protection, and neurodata, Frontiers in Psychology 15, 27 February 2024 (reference record read). Frontiers Media, Lausanne. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 8
  18. 18Lee, B.H., Even Chile neurorights leave inferred mental data in a gray zone, Stanford Law School Law and Biosciences Blog, 27 April 2026 (blog page read; commentary, not a legal text). Stanford University, Stanford. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  19. 19Szoszkiewicz, L. and Yuste, R., Mental privacy: navigating risks, rights and regulation, EMBO Reports 26(14), 3469 to 3473, published online 25 June 2025 (reference record read; no abstract beyond the subtitle). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  20. 20Zeff, M., Elon Musk Neuralink closes a USD 650 million Series E (trade report, 2 June 2025; page read; vendor statement as reported: five people implanted; valuation of about USD 9 billion pre-money from an earlier press report). TechCrunch, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  21. 21Bublitz, C. et al., A moratorium on implantable non-medical neurotech until effects on the mind are properly understood, Neuroethics 18(3), article 46, 2025 (reference record read: proposes a mental impact assessment, a moratorium and a ban for children). Springer, Dordrecht. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  22. 22Ma, X. et al., Using adversarial networks to extend brain computer interface decoding accuracy over time, eLife 12, e84296, 2023 (reference record read). eLife Sciences, Cambridge. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  23. 23Wellman, S.M. et al., A materials roadmap to functional neural interface design, Advanced Functional Materials 28(12), 2018 (reference record read; no figures in the abstract). Wiley, Weinheim. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  24. 24Feng, Y. et al., Brain-computer interfaces: the dawn of a new era in disease treatment, Exploration 6(3), 2026 (reference record read: electrode biocompatibility and signal resolution named as challenges). Wiley, Beijing. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  25. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: California Senate Bill 1223 (Becker), consumer privacy: sensitive personal information: neural data, signed 27 September 2024, in force 1 January 2025, taken from search-result summaries; the legislature page returned an access error. California Legislature, Sacramento. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: report of January 2026 that Neuralink was enrolling 21 participants worldwide, taken from a search-result summary of a secondhand news item citing people familiar with the matter; weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Paradromics (ed.), company statements on an FDA investigational device exemption for the Connect-One early feasibility study (November 2025, two initial participants) and a first implant at a university hospital, taken from search-result summaries of vendor announcements; weak evidence. Paradromics, Austin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
  28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Medtronic (ed.), FDA approval of the BrainSense adaptive deep brain stimulation system for Parkinson disease, February 2025, taken from search-result summaries of trade coverage and a company announcement; weak evidence. Medtronic, Dublin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: market-research reports on the neurotechnology and brain-computer interface markets for 2025 (several firms; figures differ by a large factor depending on definition), taken from search-result summaries; weak evidence and no figure used. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
  30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: trade reports of other company funding rounds in 2025 including a Series D for an endovascular interface company and a seed round for a new interface company, taken from search-result summaries; weak evidence and no figure used. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Recommendation of the Council on Responsible Innovation in Neurotechnology, 2019, cited from memory. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Meta Reality Labs research team, paper on a wrist-worn electromyography interface for generic human-computer interaction, Nature 2025, cited from memory; the Nature page redirected to an access check. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Neurorights Foundation (ed.), report on privacy practices of consumer neurotechnology companies, 2024, cited from memory without figures; the foundation page returned not found. Neurorights Foundation, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Yuste, R. et al., Four ethical priorities for neurotechnologies and AI, Nature 551, 159 to 163, 2017, cited from memory. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ienca, M. and Andorno, R., Towards new human rights in the age of neuroscience and neurotechnology, Life Sciences, Society and Policy 13, 5, 2017, cited from memory. Springer, Berlin. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hochberg, L.R. et al., Neuronal ensemble control of prosthetic devices by a human with tetraplegia, Nature 442, 164 to 171, 2006, cited from memory. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2006. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Collinger, J.L. et al., High-performance neuroprosthetic control by an individual with tetraplegia, The Lancet 381, 557 to 564, 2013, cited from memory. Elsevier, London. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Moses, D.A. et al., Neuroprosthesis for decoding speech in a paralyzed person with anarthria, New England Journal of Medicine 385, 217 to 227, 2021, cited from memory. Massachusetts Medical Society, Waltham. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Union, Regulation (EU) 2017/745 on medical devices, Annex XVI on products without an intended medical purpose (includes equipment for brain stimulation), cited from memory. Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO (ed.), ISO 14708-3, Implants for surgery: active implantable medical devices, part 3, implantable neurostimulators, cited from memory without figures. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Montana and Connecticut state laws on neural data, named in the Senate release [12] and in search-result summaries; texts not opened. State legislatures, Helena and Hartford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Republic of Chile, Law 21.383 amending Article 19 of the Constitution on scientific and technological development and brain activity, 2021, reported in references 17 and 18; text not opened. Biblioteca del Congreso Nacional, Santiago. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Union, Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 (Artificial Intelligence Act), Article 5 on prohibited practices including emotion recognition in workplaces and education, cited from memory. Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Neuralink company announcement of an FDA breakthrough device designation for a visual prosthesis, 2024, cited from memory; vendor announcement, weak evidence. Neuralink, Fremont. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Exponential Technology Report 2026: Neurotechnology and Human–Machine Interfaces, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Exponential Technology Series XT-20
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · GRF · public meaning · GRA · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 neurotechnology edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
XT-20NR-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-XTC-XT-20-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

Find and follow

Search the open indexes for Neurotechnology and Human–Machine Interfaces; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.

Mirrors and harvest

The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. XT-20 edition Reports Neurotechnology and Human–Machine Interfaces 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; XT-20 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.
ReportsContribute

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