Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

13 min read0 figures5 tables40 notesNR-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Neurotechnology is clinical hardware and a new class of personal data
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Consumer neural data outside medical rules
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Interface hardware and decoding platforms
    2. 8.2 Power, heat and data of implants
    3. 8.3 Materials, durability and fabrication
    4. 8.4 Economy, investment and workforce
    5. 8.5 Neural data, security and governance watch
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Interface hardware and decoding platforms

Interfaces record from implanted electrodes, from the brain surface or from inside a blood vessel, and decode with trained models. Evidence is strongest where peer review exists, and weakest where claims rest on company statements.

256electrodes

intracortical arrays in the accuracy study3

16channels

endovascular array in the one-year study8

1year

stable operation of a fully implanted brain-spine interface7

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Intracortical arraysspeech decoded at 62 to 78 words per minute and 97.5% accuracy beyond eight months in single participants12346Reported
Endovascular arraysfive participants recorded for one year, preprint8Reported
Cortical-surface arraysa company reported clearance for up to 30 days; another reported an IDE for a two-participant early feasibility study in 2025, from company material1527Reported
Closed-loop stimulation and wearablesan adaptive deep brain stimulation system was reported in 2025; a wearable wrist interface paper and a visual prosthesis designation are from memory or trade summaries283244Inferred

Couplings

  • INF → HLT clinical benefit
  • INF → DAT neural signals as data
  • BIO ↔ INF tissue response

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • claims on a common basis
  • participants beyond single studies

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
  • XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
  • XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
  • XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

8.2Power, heat and data of implants

An implant must be powered, kept cool enough for tissue and moved off the body as data. No power or heat budget was bound in this edition.

256electrodes

channels recorded in the accuracy study3

16channels

endovascular array8

10USD million

FTC study authorisation in the MIND Act11

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Power and chargingno budget bound; guidance asks for non-clinical testing of implanted interfaces9NOT BOUND
Heatno limit or measurement bound; an implantable neurostimulator standard exists, from memory40NOT BOUND
Data volume and radio linkschannel counts known for two studies; data rates not bound38Inferred
Cooling waterno documented coupling9Expert input

Couplings

  • ENE → INF implant power
  • INF → BIO heat and tissue
  • INF → DAT data off the body

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • power and heat budgets by platform
  • data rates and radio limits

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
  • XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
  • XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
  • XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

8.3Materials, durability and fabrication

Electrodes sit in tissue for years. Signal loss, drift and biocompatibility are open problems in the literature, and fabrication dependence is not bound here.

1year

one-year stability reported for two interfaces78

2018roadmap

materials roadmap for neural interfaces23

2026review

biocompatibility named as a main challenge24

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Electrode materialsa materials roadmap for neural interfaces exists23Reported
Biocompatibilitylong-term biocompatibility and signal resolution remain to be improved24Reported
Decoder driftaccuracy falls as neurons turn over; methods correct for it22Reported
Fabricationcapacity by country not bound; policy targets name electrodes and chips16Inferred

Couplings

  • BIO ↔ INF biocompatibility
  • MIN → INF materials
  • TRD → INF industrial policy

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • device failure rates
  • materials dependence by platform

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
  • XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
  • XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
  • XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

8.4Economy, investment and workforce

Company rounds are large and rest on company statements. Market size depends on definition, and workforce numbers are not bound.

650USD million

company round, 202520

15participants

estimated enrolment, PRIME registry entry13

2030target year

Chinese industry targets16

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Company fundinga USD 650 million round in June 2025 with a press-reported pre-money valuation of about USD 9 billion; other rounds are reported in trade summaries2030Reported
Trial scaleregistry estimate of 15; company statement of 5 in June 2025; a January 2026 report of 21 is secondhand132026Reported
Market sizetrade sources differ widely by definition; none bound29NOT BOUND
Industry policytwo to three cluster zones by 2027 and two to three leading enterprises by 203016Reported

Couplings

  • FIN → INF scale-up
  • GOV → FIN industrial policy
  • HLT → INF clinical workforce

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • market size on a common definition
  • workforce size and skills gaps

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
  • XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
  • XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
  • XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

8.5Neural data, security and governance watch

The nearest effect of neurotechnology on other systems is on privacy law. Rules differ by place, and several apply only to data used for identification.

4states

named by Senate sponsors as having neural data laws12

2025adopted

UNESCO Recommendation10

2021amended

Chilean constitution, Law 21.3831718

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Global ethicsUNESCO Recommendation adopted November 2025; OECD Recommendation of 2019 from memory1031Reported
United States federalFDA guidance of 2021; MIND Act bill in committee91112Reported
United States statesColorado in force 7 August 2024; California in force 1 January 2025 per search summaries; Montana and Connecticut named by sponsors142541Reported
Chile and othersconstitutional rule, 2023 deletion order, pending neurorights bill; inferred data a grey zone; EU rules from memory1718423943Reported
Advocacy and ethicsproposals for a moratorium on non-medical implants and a mental privacy framework; a 2024 consumer report named from memory1921333435Reported

Couplings

  • INF → DAT neural data
  • GOV → DAT rules
  • GOV → FIN compliance cost

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • text of national laws
  • consumer practices by company

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
  • XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
  • XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
  • XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 3Card, N.S. et al., An accurate and rapidly calibrating speech neuroprosthesis, medRxiv preprint, 26 December 2023 (preprint record read: 99.6% on 50 words on day 1; 90.2% on 125,000 words on day 2; 97.5% beyond eight months; 256 electrodes; the record notes the New England Journal of Medicine version 391(7), 609 to 618, August 2024). Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 8Chetty, N. et al., Signal properties and stability of a chronically implanted endovascular brain computer interface, medRxiv preprint, 25 September 2025 (preprint record read: five participants; 16-channel array; one year; not peer reviewed). Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 7Lorach, H. et al., Walking naturally after spinal cord injury using a brain-spine interface, Nature 618(7963), 126 to 133, published online 24 May 2023 (reference record read: fully implanted; stable for over one year; one man with chronic tetraplegia). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 1Willett, F.R. et al., A high-performance speech neuroprosthesis, Nature 620(7976), 1031 to 1036, published online 23 August 2023 (reference record read: 62 words per minute; 23.8% word error rate on 125,000 words; 9.1% on 50 words). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 2Metzger, S.L. et al., A high-performance neuroprosthesis for speech decoding and avatar control, Nature 620(7976), 1037 to 1046, published online 23 August 2023 (reference record read: median 78 words per minute; median word error rate 25%). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 4Wairagkar, M. et al., An instantaneous voice synthesis neuroprosthesis, bioRxiv preprint, 19 August 2024 (preprint record read: 256 microelectrodes, one participant with ALS; no quantitative scores in the abstract; the record notes Nature 644(8075), 145 to 152, 2025). Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 6Willett, F.R., Avansino, D.T., Hochberg, L.R., Henderson, J.M. and Shenoy, K.V., High-performance brain-to-text communication via handwriting, Nature 593(7858), 249 to 254, published online 12 May 2021 (reference record read: 90 characters per minute; 94.1% raw online accuracy). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 15Precision Neuroscience (ed.), company release on FDA 510(k) clearance of the Layer 7 Cortical Interface, 17 April 2025 (release read; vendor announcement, weak evidence: up to 30 days of implantation; 37 patients tested). Precision Neuroscience, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Paradromics (ed.), company statements on an FDA investigational device exemption for the Connect-One early feasibility study (November 2025, two initial participants) and a first implant at a university hospital, taken from search-result summaries of vendor announcements; weak evidence. Paradromics, Austin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Medtronic (ed.), FDA approval of the BrainSense adaptive deep brain stimulation system for Parkinson disease, February 2025, taken from search-result summaries of trade coverage and a company announcement; weak evidence. Medtronic, Dublin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Meta Reality Labs research team, paper on a wrist-worn electromyography interface for generic human-computer interaction, Nature 2025, cited from memory; the Nature page redirected to an access check. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Neuralink company announcement of an FDA breakthrough device designation for a visual prosthesis, 2024, cited from memory; vendor announcement, weak evidence. Neuralink, Fremont. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 11United States Senate (ed.), Management of Individuals Neural Data Act of 2025 (MIND Act), S. 2925, 119th Congress, introduced text (text read: FTC study and report within one year of enactment; USD 10 million authorised; referred to committee). US Government Publishing Office, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 9US Food and Drug Administration (ed.), Implanted Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) Devices for Patients with Paralysis or Amputation: Non-clinical Testing and Clinical Considerations, final guidance, May 2021 (guidance page read). Center for Devices and Radiological Health, Silver Spring. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO (ed.), ISO 14708-3, Implants for surgery: active implantable medical devices, part 3, implantable neurostimulators, cited from memory without figures. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 23Wellman, S.M. et al., A materials roadmap to functional neural interface design, Advanced Functional Materials 28(12), 2018 (reference record read; no figures in the abstract). Wiley, Weinheim. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 24Feng, Y. et al., Brain-computer interfaces: the dawn of a new era in disease treatment, Exploration 6(3), 2026 (reference record read: electrode biocompatibility and signal resolution named as challenges). Wiley, Beijing. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 22Ma, X. et al., Using adversarial networks to extend brain computer interface decoding accuracy over time, eLife 12, e84296, 2023 (reference record read). eLife Sciences, Cambridge. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 16Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other bodies (eds.), Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Innovation and Development of the Brain-Computer Interface Industry, MIIT (2025) No. 164, 23 July 2025, English translation by the Center for Security and Emerging Technology, 18 December 2025 (translation page read). Georgetown University, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 20Zeff, M., Elon Musk Neuralink closes a USD 650 million Series E (trade report, 2 June 2025; page read; vendor statement as reported: five people implanted; valuation of about USD 9 billion pre-money from an earlier press report). TechCrunch, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 13ClinicalTrials.gov (ed.), PRIME: An Early Feasibility Study of a Precise Robotically Implanted Brain-Computer Interface for the Control of External Devices, NCT06429735 (record read: recruiting; start 9 January 2024; estimated enrolment 15; updated January 2026; sponsor-supplied entry). National Library of Medicine, Bethesda. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: trade reports of other company funding rounds in 2025 including a Series D for an endovascular interface company and a seed round for a new interface company, taken from search-result summaries; weak evidence and no figure used. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: report of January 2026 that Neuralink was enrolling 21 participants worldwide, taken from a search-result summary of a secondhand news item citing people familiar with the matter; weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  24. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: market-research reports on the neurotechnology and brain-computer interface markets for 2025 (several firms; figures differ by a large factor depending on definition), taken from search-result summaries; weak evidence and no figure used. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  25. 12US Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation (ed.), release on the introduction of the MIND Act, 24 September 2025 (release read: names Colorado, California, Montana and Connecticut as states with neural data laws). US Senate, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  26. 10UNESCO (ed.), Recommendation on the Ethics of Neurotechnology (page read: adopted November 2025 at the 43rd session of the General Conference; mandate entrusted by 194 Member States in 2023; the page states no neural data provisions). United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  27. 17Cornejo-Plaza, M.I., Cippitani, R. and Pasquino, V., Chilean Supreme Court ruling on the protection of brain activity: neurorights, personal data protection, and neurodata, Frontiers in Psychology 15, 27 February 2024 (reference record read). Frontiers Media, Lausanne. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  28. 18Lee, B.H., Even Chile neurorights leave inferred mental data in a gray zone, Stanford Law School Law and Biosciences Blog, 27 April 2026 (blog page read; commentary, not a legal text). Stanford University, Stanford. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  29. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Recommendation of the Council on Responsible Innovation in Neurotechnology, 2019, cited from memory. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  30. 14Colorado General Assembly (ed.), HB24-1058 Protect Privacy of Biological Data (bill page read: signed 17 April 2024; effective 7 August 2024). Colorado General Assembly, Denver. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  31. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: California Senate Bill 1223 (Becker), consumer privacy: sensitive personal information: neural data, signed 27 September 2024, in force 1 January 2025, taken from search-result summaries; the legislature page returned an access error. California Legislature, Sacramento. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  32. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Montana and Connecticut state laws on neural data, named in the Senate release [12] and in search-result summaries; texts not opened. State legislatures, Helena and Hartford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  33. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Republic of Chile, Law 21.383 amending Article 19 of the Constitution on scientific and technological development and brain activity, 2021, reported in references 17 and 18; text not opened. Biblioteca del Congreso Nacional, Santiago. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  34. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Union, Regulation (EU) 2017/745 on medical devices, Annex XVI on products without an intended medical purpose (includes equipment for brain stimulation), cited from memory. Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  35. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Union, Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 (Artificial Intelligence Act), Article 5 on prohibited practices including emotion recognition in workplaces and education, cited from memory. Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  36. 19Szoszkiewicz, L. and Yuste, R., Mental privacy: navigating risks, rights and regulation, EMBO Reports 26(14), 3469 to 3473, published online 25 June 2025 (reference record read; no abstract beyond the subtitle). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  37. 21Bublitz, C. et al., A moratorium on implantable non-medical neurotech until effects on the mind are properly understood, Neuroethics 18(3), article 46, 2025 (reference record read: proposes a mental impact assessment, a moratorium and a ban for children). Springer, Dordrecht. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  38. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Neurorights Foundation (ed.), report on privacy practices of consumer neurotechnology companies, 2024, cited from memory without figures; the foundation page returned not found. Neurorights Foundation, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  39. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Yuste, R. et al., Four ethical priorities for neurotechnologies and AI, Nature 551, 159 to 163, 2017, cited from memory. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  40. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ienca, M. and Andorno, R., Towards new human rights in the age of neuroscience and neurotechnology, Life Sciences, Society and Policy 13, 5, 2017, cited from memory. Springer, Berlin. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Neurotechnology and Human–Machine Interfaces (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

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