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Key findings

Twelve findings carry the neurotechnology baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

7 min read1 figure0 tables17 notesNR-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Neurotechnology is clinical hardware and a new class of personal data
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Infrastructure
    3. 2.3 Health
    4. 2.4 Governance
    5. 2.5 Data and digital
    6. 2.6 Finance
    7. 2.7 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Consumer neural data outside medical rules
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-001

Two Nature papers of August 2023 reported speech decoding at 62 and 78 words per minute in single participants with paralysis.

Figure 2.1Speech decoding rates and natural conversation (words per minute)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Willett 2023, 125,000-word vocabulary62
Metzger 2023, median rate78
Natural conversation, as stated in the first paper160

Sources: Nature 620 (2023)12. The 160 figure is the approximate rate of natural conversation as stated in1.

Implication

Decoding of attempted speech into text is now fast enough to support conversation in a laboratory setting for a few people. The first study reported a 23.8% word error rate on a large vocabulary and the second a median of 25%; a later study in one participant reported 97.5% accuracy beyond eight months3. Each result rests on one participant and a research system.

What would move it

Results in more participants, peer-reviewed long-term outcomes and home use would each move this finding.

2.2Infrastructure

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-001

    Two Nature papers of 2023 reported speech decoding at 62 words per minute on a 125,000-word vocabulary with a 23.8% word error rate, and at a median of 78 words per minute with a median word error rate of 25%, each in one participant.12

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-002

    A speech neuroprosthesis in one participant reached 97.5% accuracy on a 125,000-word vocabulary beyond eight months after implantation, using 256 intracortical electrodes.3

  3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-004

    A preprint of five participants with an endovascular 16-channel array reports movement-related signals recorded over one year, with no significant change in impedance for most channels.8

2.3Health

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-003

    A fully implanted brain-spine interface in one man with chronic tetraplegia stayed reliable for over one year and supported walking overground with crutches even when switched off.7

2.4Governance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-005

    Seven Chinese bodies led by the industry ministry issued an implementation opinion on 23 July 2025 that sets targets for 2027 and 2030, including two to three industrial cluster zones by 2027 and two to three globally influential enterprises by 2030.16

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-007

    Colorado extended its privacy act to neural data in a bill signed on 17 April 2024 and in force on 7 August 2024; Chile amended its constitution in 2021 and its Supreme Court ordered deletion of one user headset data in August 2023.141718

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-008

    UNESCO adopted a Recommendation on the Ethics of Neurotechnology at the 43rd session of its General Conference in November 2025, as a framework of values, principles and policy actions.10

  4. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-009

    The MIND Act of 2025 (S. 2925) would direct the FTC to study neural data and report to Congress within one year of enactment, and authorises USD 10 million for the study; it was referred to committee.1112

  5. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-010

    The FDA issued final guidance in May 2021 on non-clinical testing and study design for implanted interfaces, and a company reported in April 2025 a 510(k) clearance for a cortical-surface array for up to 30 days of implantation.915

2.5Data and digital

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DAT-006

    A 2025 study in four participants decoded imagined sentences in real time from motor cortex, found a separate neural dimension that distinguishes inner speech from attempted speech, and proposed methods to prevent unintended decoding of private inner speech.5

2.6Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011

    Neuralink stated in a blog post that five people with severe paralysis had been implanted and closed a USD 650 million round in June 2025; a registry entry for its PRIME study shows an estimated enrolment of 15 and a start date of 9 January 2024.1320

2.7Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is neural data from consumer devices sitting outside medical-device rules while clinical interfaces advance. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Willett, F.R. et al., A high-performance speech neuroprosthesis, Nature 620(7976), 1031 to 1036, published online 23 August 2023 (reference record read: 62 words per minute; 23.8% word error rate on 125,000 words; 9.1% on 50 words). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2Metzger, S.L. et al., A high-performance neuroprosthesis for speech decoding and avatar control, Nature 620(7976), 1037 to 1046, published online 23 August 2023 (reference record read: median 78 words per minute; median word error rate 25%). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 3Card, N.S. et al., An accurate and rapidly calibrating speech neuroprosthesis, medRxiv preprint, 26 December 2023 (preprint record read: 99.6% on 50 words on day 1; 90.2% on 125,000 words on day 2; 97.5% beyond eight months; 256 electrodes; the record notes the New England Journal of Medicine version 391(7), 609 to 618, August 2024). Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 8Chetty, N. et al., Signal properties and stability of a chronically implanted endovascular brain computer interface, medRxiv preprint, 25 September 2025 (preprint record read: five participants; 16-channel array; one year; not peer reviewed). Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 7Lorach, H. et al., Walking naturally after spinal cord injury using a brain-spine interface, Nature 618(7963), 126 to 133, published online 24 May 2023 (reference record read: fully implanted; stable for over one year; one man with chronic tetraplegia). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 16Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other bodies (eds.), Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Innovation and Development of the Brain-Computer Interface Industry, MIIT (2025) No. 164, 23 July 2025, English translation by the Center for Security and Emerging Technology, 18 December 2025 (translation page read). Georgetown University, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 14Colorado General Assembly (ed.), HB24-1058 Protect Privacy of Biological Data (bill page read: signed 17 April 2024; effective 7 August 2024). Colorado General Assembly, Denver. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 17Cornejo-Plaza, M.I., Cippitani, R. and Pasquino, V., Chilean Supreme Court ruling on the protection of brain activity: neurorights, personal data protection, and neurodata, Frontiers in Psychology 15, 27 February 2024 (reference record read). Frontiers Media, Lausanne. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 18Lee, B.H., Even Chile neurorights leave inferred mental data in a gray zone, Stanford Law School Law and Biosciences Blog, 27 April 2026 (blog page read; commentary, not a legal text). Stanford University, Stanford. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 10UNESCO (ed.), Recommendation on the Ethics of Neurotechnology (page read: adopted November 2025 at the 43rd session of the General Conference; mandate entrusted by 194 Member States in 2023; the page states no neural data provisions). United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 11United States Senate (ed.), Management of Individuals Neural Data Act of 2025 (MIND Act), S. 2925, 119th Congress, introduced text (text read: FTC study and report within one year of enactment; USD 10 million authorised; referred to committee). US Government Publishing Office, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 12US Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation (ed.), release on the introduction of the MIND Act, 24 September 2025 (release read: names Colorado, California, Montana and Connecticut as states with neural data laws). US Senate, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 9US Food and Drug Administration (ed.), Implanted Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) Devices for Patients with Paralysis or Amputation: Non-clinical Testing and Clinical Considerations, final guidance, May 2021 (guidance page read). Center for Devices and Radiological Health, Silver Spring. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 15Precision Neuroscience (ed.), company release on FDA 510(k) clearance of the Layer 7 Cortical Interface, 17 April 2025 (release read; vendor announcement, weak evidence: up to 30 days of implantation; 37 patients tested). Precision Neuroscience, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 5Kunz, E.M. et al., Inner speech in motor cortex and implications for speech neuroprostheses, Cell 188(17), 4658 to 4673, published online 14 August 2025 (reference record read: four participants). Cell Press, Cambridge MA. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 13ClinicalTrials.gov (ed.), PRIME: An Early Feasibility Study of a Precise Robotically Implanted Brain-Computer Interface for the Control of External Devices, NCT06429735 (record read: recruiting; start 9 January 2024; estimated enrolment 15; updated January 2026; sponsor-supplied entry). National Library of Medicine, Bethesda. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 20Zeff, M., Elon Musk Neuralink closes a USD 650 million Series E (trade report, 2 June 2025; page read; vendor statement as reported: five people implanted; valuation of about USD 9 billion pre-money from an earlier press report). TechCrunch, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Neurotechnology and Human–Machine Interfaces (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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