The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables2 notesNR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1America’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Western heat, fire and grid summer
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. A-01

    How would a Western summer of heat, drought and wildfire load the grid, water supply, health services and insurance at the same time?

    INI-USA-HFG-01 · Western heat–fire–grid; first output: dependency graph for three regions.

  2. A-02

    Where is homeowners insurance retreating under wildfire, hurricane and flood risk, and where do the uninsured losses land?

    INI-USA-FIN-02 · insurance availability; first output: state-by-peril availability table.

  3. A-03

    How much reliability margin remains when data-centre load grows during heat and cold extremes?

    INI-USA-ENE-03 · load and reliability; first output: margin analysis for five regions.

  4. A-04

    How much food production depends on the depleting High Plains and Central Valley aquifers?

    INI-USA-WAT-04 · aquifer dependence; first output: aquifer–crop dependence register.

  5. A-05

    What health-system surge capacity exists for record heat in large southern and western cities?

    INI-USA-HLT-05 · heat surge readiness; first output: surge baseline for ten metro areas.

  6. A-06

    How will Colorado River allocation after 2026 couple to cities, farms and hydropower?

    With GS-01 Water; first output: basin scenario note.

  7. A-07

    How exposed are coastal communities to compound hurricane, surge and inland flooding?

    To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. A-08

    Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

    National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-USA-HFG-01Western heat–fire–grid dependency modelInitiativeA-01PROPOSED
INI-USA-FIN-02Insurance availability by state and perilInitiativeA-02PROPOSED
INI-USA-ENE-03Load growth and reliability marginsInitiativeA-03PROPOSED
INI-USA-WAT-04Aquifer dependence of food productionInitiativeA-04PROPOSED
INI-USA-HLT-05Heat surge readiness in large metrosInitiativeA-05PROPOSED
MSN-USA-2027-01Western heat–fire–grid Universe missionMissionA-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

United States is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

  1. 01

    One National Agenda

    bounded national questions for the year

    DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

  2. 02

    National Desk

    coordination, records, routing and continuity

    DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

  3. 03

    National Model

    the country as a system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

  4. 04

    National Portfolio

    risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

    7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

  5. 05

    Foundry

    continuous computational environment

    PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-USA-2027-Q1

  6. 06

    Reports

    quarterly and annual publication

    BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

  7. 07

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

  8. 08

    Evidence and correction

    after-action, correction and renewal

    OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNEDQ4 2027 annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-USA-2027-01 · Western heat–fire–grid
Role spine
Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
CLI-001 · emissionspublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
FIN-002 · lossesfinance-readiness review (key F)insurance availability A-02PUBLIC
FIN-003 · Los Angeles firesINI-USA-FIN-02insurance retreatPUBLIC
ENE-006 · data centresINI-USA-ENE-03 · XT-01reliability marginsPUBLIC
WAT-008 · Colorado RiverGS-01 Water editionbasin scenarioPUBLIC
HLT-009 · heat deathsINI-USA-HLT-05surge readinessPUBLIC
BIO-011 · species at riskGS-11 Biodiversity editioncondition baselinePUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-USA-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the national pathwayconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
U.S. Drought MonitorNational Drought Mitigation CenterweeklyRSK-USA-WAT-003
National Weather Service alertsNOAAreal timeearly-warning rung
Fire weather and incidentsNational Interagency Fire Centerdaily in seasonRSK-USA-CLI-001
Electric Power MonthlyEIAmonthlyENE findings
Reliability assessmentsNERCseasonalRSK-USA-ENE-002
Catastrophe estimatesreinsurers and index providersper eventFIN findings
Heat-health dataCDC and state health departmentsweekly in seasonHLT-009
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-CAN-001Recurrent low water in western reservoirs and rivers, 2023–2025PARTIALWAT · ENEresearch question A-01
SIG-CAN-002H5N1 in poultry and wild birds; a domestically acquired human case in 202427CORROBORATEDHLT · FOO · BIOmonitoring
SIG-CAN-003Fire seasons starting earlier and lasting longer40CORROBORATEDCLI · BIO · HLTrisk object RSK-CAN-CLI-001

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • quarterly publication
  • signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 27International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
  2. 40Federal Emergency Management Agency (ed.), National Flood Insurance Program: program description and policy statistics. FEMA, Washington, DC, retrieved 2026-09-30.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In United States Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United States’ Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on United States.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

GCRICountry Systems Risk and Resilience

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Support our work

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.