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Nexus Reports · The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation · Baseline Edition 2026
Nexus Country Systems Risk & Resilience Report
The state of the United States’ interdependent systems, water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, and the national risk portfolio at the 2026 baseline
The record
About this edition
The first annual edition of the United States report. It fixes the 2026 reference state, the model, the voice and the positions against which every quarterly edition from Q1 2027 will be measured.
What this edition is
A baseline: the state of the United States’ water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies between them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets the questions the operational series will answer.
What it is not
Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any agency, state, utility or company. Competent federal, state, tribal and local authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership is unaffected.
What comes next
Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.
Abstract and decision surface
Abstract
The United States enters 2027 as the country carrying the largest share of the world’s recorded disaster losses. North America accounted for US$133 billion of the US$224 billion in global natural-disaster losses in 2025, about 70% of it insured, led by the Los Angeles wildfires at about US$53 billion [2]. There were 27 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2024 [15], and the contiguous United States has warmed about 1.4 °C since 1970, faster than the global average [3]. Gross greenhouse-gas emissions were 6,343 Mt CO₂e in 2022; net emissions were about 17% below 2005 [1]. Data centres used about 4.4% of US electricity in 2023, with 6.7–12% projected for 2028 [6], and heat-related deaths reached a record 2,325 in 2023 [9]. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for the five core systems, maps the dependencies through which shocks travel between them, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer in Q1 2027. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.
Headline finding
North America carried US$133 billion of the US$224 billion in global natural-disaster losses in 2025; about US$93 billion, roughly 70%, was insured.
Source: Munich Re NatCatSERVICE 2025 [2]; uninsured = overall − insured.
Implication
High insured shares can hide a growing gap at the margins. Where premiums rise and insurers withdraw, uninsured losses concentrate among households least able to bear them and shift onto state and federal budgets [21] [40].
At a glance
Six readings that frame the baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
Where do emissions stand?
Gross emissions were 6,343 Mt CO₂e in 2022; net emissions about 17% below 2005. [1]
REPORTED
Are disaster losses rising?
27 billion-dollar disasters in 2024; the 2025 Los Angeles fires were the costliest wildfire on record. [2] [15]
REPORTED
Who carries the losses?
About 70% of 2025 North American losses were insured, but cover is retreating where risk is highest. [2] [21]
REPORTED
Which hazard couples the most systems?
Heat with drought and fire, through grids, water, health and insurance. [3] [9] [31]
INFERRED
How exposed is the grid?
Winter Storm Uri in 2021 showed cold can fail power, water and health together; summer peaks now add data-centre load. [6] [16] [31]
REPORTED
Where is water tightest?
The Colorado River basin, under its first shortage since 2021, and the depleting High Plains aquifer. [8] [7]
REPORTED
How is nature faring?
About 40% of animal species and 34% of plants are at risk of extinction. [10]
REPORTED
What will Q1 2027 test first?
The Western heat–fire–grid pathway into health, water and insurance. SCN-USA-HFG-01
EXPERT INPUT
Systems dashboard
WATWater
Total freshwater and saline withdrawals
322bn gal/day
Thermoelectric power took 41% and irrigation 37%.
REPORTED2015USGS [7]
ENEEnergy
Data centres’ share of US electricity
4.4%
6.7–12% projected for 2028.
REPORTED2023LBNL [6]
FOOFood
Households food insecure
13.5%
about 18 million households in 2023.
REPORTED2023USDA ERS [11]
HLTHealth
Heat-related deaths
2,325deaths
a record; heat deaths rose sharply after 2016.
REPORTED2023JAMA [9]
BIOBiodiversity
Animal species at risk of extinction
40%
and 34% of plant species.
REPORTED2023NatureServe [10]
SYSCross-system
North American disaster losses · insured
133 · 93US$ bn
led by the Los Angeles wildfires at about US$53 billion.
REPORTED2025Munich Re [2]
Place · The contiguous United States
A live context map of satellite and model layers for the territory. Context for the findings, never a value the edition asserts; where the layers cannot load, the base map and its note stay.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Hazards and exposure
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Flood water, active fires and surface heat beside population and night-time lights, framed on the contiguous United States.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.
Layers and dates
Static base: the live map shows here when its map library and satellite tiles can load. Natural Earth land at 110m with the editions marked; filled marks are drafted editions, rings are editions in preparation.
Key findings
Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.
CLIClimate forcing
Gross greenhouse-gas emissions were 6,343 Mt CO₂e in 2022; net emissions were about 17% below 2005. [1]
The contiguous United States has warmed about 1.4 °C since 1970, faster than the global average. [3]
There were 27 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2024, after a record 28 in 2023. [15]
FINFinance
ENEEnergy
Data centres used about 4.4% of US electricity in 2023, with 6.7–12% projected for 2028. [6]
WATWater
HLTHealth
Heat-related deaths reached a record 2,325 in 2023. [9]
FOOFood
13.5% of US households were food insecure in 2023. [11]
BIOBiodiversity
About 40% of animal species and 34% of plant species in the United States are at risk of extinction. [10]
SYSSystemic
The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing runs from Western heat and drought through wildfire and grid stress into health, water and insurance availability. §9.3
Part I · lead chapter
The United States records more disaster losses than any other country, and it usually reports them one event at a time. This baseline reads the record as a coupled system. In 2025 North America carried US$133 billion of the world’s US$224 billion in natural-disaster losses; the Los Angeles wildfires alone caused about US$53 billion, the costliest wildfire disaster on record [2].
Frequency now drives the record. There were 27 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2024, after a record 28 in 2023 [15]. The Fifth National Climate Assessment found that such events, once roughly one every four months in the 1980s, now occur about every three weeks, and that the contiguous United States has warmed about 1.4 °C since 1970, faster than the global average [3].
Insurance has absorbed most of these losses, about 70% in North America in 2025 [2], but cover is retreating where risk is highest. Premiums and non-renewals have risen fastest in the most exposed ZIP codes [21], and flood risk remains largely outside private cover [40]. Where insurance withdraws, losses move onto households, states and federal assistance.
The energy system couples most of the others. Winter Storm Uri in February 2021 failed large parts of the Texas grid; water systems lost pressure and the state recorded 246 storm-related deaths [16] [31]. Summer peaks now add data-centre load: data centres used about 4.4% of US electricity in 2023, with 6.7–12% projected for 2028 [6].
Water is tight where growth is fastest. The first-ever shortage on the Colorado River was declared in 2021 [8], thermoelectric power and irrigation take most withdrawals [7], and heat-related deaths reached a record 2,325 in 2023 [9]. About 40% of the country’s animal species are at risk of extinction [10].
This edition therefore treats American risk as a property of couplings, between heat, grids, water, health and insurance, rather than a list of separate hazards. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask where a shock travels next and who holds the capability to stop it.
Power plants and farms take almost four-fifths of withdrawals. Drought and heat therefore reach electricity and food before they reach household taps [7].
Dependency network
The United States matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
Select a system
Each line is one coupling, weighted by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.
| WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT Water | · | STRONGthermoelectric cooling · hydro | STRONGirrigation · rain-fed yield | MODERATEdrinking water | STRONGflows · wetlands |
| ENE Energy | MODERATEpumping · treatment | · | STRONGfuel · fertiliser · cold chain | STRONGfacility power · cooling | MODERATEreservoirs · land use |
| FOO Food | MODERATEwithdrawals · nutrients | WEAKbiofuel feedstock | · | STRONGnutrition · food safety | STRONGland conversion |
| HLT Health | WEAKworkforce | WEAKworkforce | MODERATElabour · disease | · | WEAKresidues |
| BIO Biodiversity | STRONGregulation · filtration | MODERATEfire on lines · biomass | STRONGpollination · soils | MODERATEzoonoses · smoke | · |
Transmission paths
Reinforcing loops · both directions rated strong
A shock entering either system of a loop returns amplified through the other. A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.
Domain posture
Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.
| Domain | Posture at baseline | Coupling | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | Ample in the East, tight in the West; Colorado River under shortage; major aquifers depleting. | WAT → ENE cooling · WAT → FOO irrigation | REPORTEDEQL 4 |
| ENE | Gas-led power with growing renewables; reliability stressed in extremes; data-centre load rising. | ENE ↔ WAT · ENE → HLT | REPORTEDEQL 4 |
| FOO | A leading producer and exporter; 13.5% of households food insecure in 2023. | FOO ← WAT, ENE · FOO → TRD | REPORTEDEQL 4 |
| HLT | Record heat deaths in 2023; smoke and storms load health services. | HLT ← CLI, ENE | REPORTEDEQL 4 |
| BIO | About 40% of animal species at risk; wildfire and land use the fastest pressures. | BIO → WAT · BIO ← fire | REPORTEDEQL 3 |
| CLI | Warming faster than the global average; billion-dollar disasters every three weeks. | forcing on all five systems | REPORTEDEQL 5 |
| INF | Ageing grids, water systems and roads; critical functions defined nationally. | INF → ENE, WAT, HLT | INFERREDEQL 3 |
| FIN | Largest insured losses in the world; cover retreating in high-risk areas. | FIN ← CLI · FIN → households, states | REPORTEDEQL 4 |
| DAT | Cloud and data-centre hub of the world economy; cyber exposure of utilities. | DAT → ENE, HLT, FIN | INFERREDEQL 3 |
| AIC | Data centres about 4.4% of electricity in 2023 and rising. | AIC → ENE, WAT | REPORTEDEQL 4 |
| MIN | 50 minerals on the critical list; import reliance for many. | MIN → ENE, AIC | REPORTEDEQL 3 |
| TRD | Tariff changes in 2025 reshape supply chains and prices. | TRD → all sectors | INFERREDEQL 3 |
Sector screens
All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.
| Code | Sector | Baseline evidence | Exposure to watch | Evidence coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS-00 | Cross-system | coupled losses across perils [2] [15] | compound heat–fire–grid summers | PARTIAL |
| GS-01 | Water | Western shortage; aquifer depletion [7] [8] | drought; allocation conflict | PARTIAL |
| GS-02 | Energy | gas-led mix; new load from data centres [5] [6] | heat and cold extremes | GOOD |
| GS-03 | Food | leading producer [22] | drought; aquifer decline | GOOD |
| GS-04 | Health | record heat deaths, 2023 [9] | heat and smoke surges | PARTIAL |
| GS-05 | Finance | largest insured losses [2] | insurance retreat [21] | GOOD |
| GS-06 | Development | food insecurity 13.5% of households [11] | uneven recovery capacity | PARTIAL |
| GS-07 | Climate | warming faster than global average [3] | extremes of heat, rain and fire | GOOD |
| GS-08 | Disaster | 27 billion-dollar events, 2024 [15] | frequency of medium events | GOOD |
| GS-09 | Infrastructure | critical functions defined [18] | ageing assets | PARTIAL |
| GS-10 | Cities | growth in hot and dry metros | heat and water stress | PARTIAL |
| GS-11 | Biodiversity | 40% of animal species at risk [10] | fire and land use | PARTIAL |
| GS-12 | Earth observation | strong federal observation programmes | continuity of missions | PARTIAL |
| GS-13 | Cyber and digital | critical-infrastructure guidance [19] | attacks on utilities | PARTIAL |
| GS-14 | Policy | major infrastructure and energy laws [28] [29] | policy change since 2025 | PARTIAL |
| GS-15 | Science | deep research base | translation into operations | THIN |
Risk portfolio
Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.
Capability ladder
Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.
Ladder: LISTED, EXISTS, DEMONSTRATED, TESTED. A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.
Scenario · SCN-USA-HFG-01
A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.
Assumptions
Cascade, step by step
How the shock in scenario SCN-USA-HFG-01 would travel through United States's coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.
Heat and low flows cut reservoir and hydro output. Analogue or source: 2021–2022. Edition USA, scenario SCN-USA-HFG-01, step 1
The cascade of scenario SCN-USA-HFG-01 as a playable chain of couplings, one step at a time.
A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition's stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning.
Sources: United States 2026, scenario SCN-USA-HFG-01 (2026); United States 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).
Three lenses
The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.
GCRI · KEY T
The evidence supports a coupled reading of American risk. Losses are rising with frequency; the grid couples heat and cold to water and health; and insurance is retreating where risk is highest. Evidence is strongest for losses and emissions, and weakest for state-level insurance availability and cross-system dependencies.
FIN-002 · FIN-003 · ENE-006 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
For most Americans risk arrives as a smoke-filled summer, a power cut in a heat wave or a non-renewed home policy. The baseline asks that these be read as one system, and that public debate weigh who carries the losses insurance no longer covers.
HLT-009 · FIN-003 · CLI-005
GRA · KEY F
Readiness implications only. The world’s largest insured losses, a retreating homeowners market [21] and large flood exposure outside private cover [40] show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.
FIN-002 · FIN-003
NEXUS
The United States is deeply observed and unevenly protected. The 2027 programme should test the Western heat–fire–grid pathway, map insurance availability by state and peril, and measure reliability margins as data-centre load grows.
SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02 · A-03
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation reading
2027 agenda
Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.
How would a Western summer of heat, drought and wildfire load the grid, water supply, health services and insurance at the same time?
Where is homeowners insurance retreating under wildfire, hurricane and flood risk, and where do the uninsured losses land?
How much reliability margin remains when data-centre load grows during heat and cold extremes?
How much food production depends on the depleting High Plains and Central Valley aquifers?
What health-system surge capacity exists for record heat in large southern and western cities?
How will Colorado River allocation after 2026 couple to cities, farms and hydropower?
How exposed are coastal communities to compound hurricane, surge and inland flooding?
Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?
Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.
| ID | Object | Kind | Question | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INI-USA-HFG-01 | Western heat–fire–grid dependency model | Initiative | A-01 | PROPOSED |
| INI-USA-FIN-02 | Insurance availability by state and peril | Initiative | A-02 | PROPOSED |
| INI-USA-ENE-03 | Load growth and reliability margins | Initiative | A-03 | PROPOSED |
| INI-USA-WAT-04 | Aquifer dependence of food production | Initiative | A-04 | PROPOSED |
| INI-USA-HLT-05 | Heat surge readiness in large metros | Initiative | A-05 | PROPOSED |
| MSN-USA-2027-01 | Western heat–fire–grid Universe mission | Mission | A-01 | CANDIDATE |
The pathway
Nexus United States is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.
One National Agenda
bounded national questions for the year
National Desk
coordination, records, routing and continuity
National Model
the country as a system of systems
National Portfolio
risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions
Nexus Foundry
continuous computational environment
Nexus Reports
quarterly and annual publication
Nexus Universe
annual proving environment
Evidence and correction
after-action, correction and renewal
System chapter
America’s water is ample in total and tight where growth is fastest. Power plants and farms take most withdrawals, and the West is in structural shortage.
State at baseline
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Withdrawals | thermoelectric 41%, irrigation 37%, public supply 12% | [7] | REPORTED |
| Western shortage | first Colorado River shortage declared in 2021 | [8] | REPORTED |
| Groundwater | High Plains and Central Valley depletion | [7] | INFERRED |
| Drought | tracked weekly nationwide | [17] | REPORTED |
| Service access | tribal and rural gaps not consolidated | , | EXPERT INPUT |
Couplings into other systems
Evidence to bind in 2027
System chapter
A gas-led electricity system with growing renewables faces two pressures at once: extremes of heat and cold, and fast new load from data centres.
State at baseline
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Generation mix | gas about 43%, nuclear about 18%, growing renewables | [5] | REPORTED |
| Reliability | reserve margins thin in some regions | [32] | REPORTED |
| Extremes | 2021 cold-weather failures across Texas and the South Central US | [31] | REPORTED |
| New load | data centres 4.4% in 2023, 6.7–12% projected for 2028 | [6] | REPORTED |
| Policy | clean-energy credits amended in 2025 | [29] | REPORTED |
Couplings into other systems
Evidence to bind in 2027
System chapter
The United States is one of the world’s largest food producers and exporters, yet 13.5% of its households were food insecure in 2023.
State at baseline
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Production | large grain, oilseed and livestock output | [22] | REPORTED |
| Irrigation | depends on depleting aquifers in key regions | [7] | INFERRED |
| Access | 13.5% of households food insecure | [11] | REPORTED |
| Trade | export markets exposed to tariff changes | , | INFERRED |
| Drought | Plains and Western production exposed | [17] | REPORTED |
Couplings into other systems
Evidence to bind in 2027
System chapter
Heat is the fastest-growing climate–health risk. Grid failures turn weather into health emergencies, and smoke reaches cities far from fire.
State at baseline
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heat | record heat deaths in 2023 | [9] | REPORTED |
| Cold and outages | deaths in the 2021 Texas grid failure | [16] | REPORTED |
| Smoke | wildfire smoke over large cities | [3] | REPORTED |
| Surge capacity | not consolidated nationally | , | EXPERT INPUT |
| One Health | zoonotic risks tracked by federal agencies | [3] | INFERRED |
Couplings into other systems
Evidence to bind in 2027
System chapter
Many of the country’s species are at risk, and wildfire, land use and water stress are the fastest-changing pressures.
State at baseline
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Species | about 40% of animal species at risk of extinction | [10] | REPORTED |
| Plants | about 34% of plant species at risk | [10] | REPORTED |
| Fire | larger and more destructive fires in the West | [3] | REPORTED |
| Freshwater | river and wetland ecosystems under water stress | [3] | INFERRED |
| Services | watershed regulation, pollination, carbon storage | [26] | INFERRED |
Couplings into other systems
Evidence to bind in 2027
Process
Press play to run the release step by step in the five pillar lanes; select a step to read it.
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
Nexus Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Nexus Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site's.
The quarterly release in the five pillar lanes: what Foundry and Universe hand to Reports, what Reports seals, reviews, signs, deposits and publishes, and what returns to Standards.
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record.
Sources: Nexus Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Nexus Reports deposits (2026).
How a contribution reaches this edition, step by step, is on the contribute page and the front page of this site. Contribute
Open science
Identifiers, licences and the bundle at deposit; credit by ORCID, ROR and CRediT; the open indexes; and a deposit prefilled for a contribution to this edition.
Search the open indexes for United States; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.
The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.
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What is on this site now, what ships with the signed bundle at release, and what is not recorded for this edition; then the chain the outputs come from and how to cite each one.
| Format | State | What it is | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Web editionHTML | On this site | Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source. | NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| Print editionPDF | At release | A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release. | NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| Indicator dataCSV · JSON | On this site | 18 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release. | NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE data release v1 |
| FiguresSVG · PNG | On this site | 4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder. | FIG-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-* |
| SlidesPDF | Not recorded | No slide deck is recorded for this edition. | |
| Evidence briefHTML · PDF | Not recorded | No evidence brief is recorded for this edition. | |
| Dataset with DOIDataCite | At release | Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet. |
Provenance
Cite it
Indicator data
| Indicator | Value | Unit | Year | State | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross GHG emissions | 6,343 | Mt CO₂e | 2022 | REPORTED | [1] |
| Net emissions against 2005 | ≈ −17 | % | 2022 | REPORTED | [1] |
| North American disaster losses | 133 | US$ billion | 2025 | REPORTED | [2] |
| Insured North American losses | 93 | US$ billion | 2025 | REPORTED | [2] |
| Los Angeles wildfires, overall | 53 | US$ billion | 2025 | REPORTED | [2] |
| Billion-dollar disasters | 27 | events | 2024 | REPORTED | [15] |
| Warming of the contiguous US since 1970 | ≈1.4 | °C | to 2023 | REPORTED | [3] |
| Population | 340.1 | million | 2024 | REPORTED | [4] |
| Data-centre share of electricity | 4.4 | % | 2023 | REPORTED | [6] |
| Projected data-centre share | 6.7–12 | % | 2028 | SCENARIO | [6] |
| Water withdrawals | 322 | bn gal/day | 2015 | REPORTED | [7] |
| Thermoelectric share of withdrawals | 41 | % | 2015 | REPORTED | [7] |
| Irrigation share of withdrawals | 37 | % | 2015 | REPORTED | [7] |
| Heat-related deaths | 2,325 | deaths | 2023 | REPORTED | [9] |
| Winter Storm Uri deaths, Texas | 246 | deaths | 2021 | REPORTED | [16] |
| Households food insecure | 13.5 | % | 2023 | REPORTED | [11] |
| Animal species at risk | 40 | % | 2023 | REPORTED | [10] |
| Critical minerals listed | 50 | minerals | 2022 | REPORTED | [12] |
Six pillars
Nexus Foundry seals the evidence and Nexus Universe tests it; Nexus Reports publishes it; Nexus Standards takes its corrections and Risk Academy teaches from it.
| Handoff | Between | What crosses, and when |
|---|---|---|
| F03 | Nexus Foundry to Nexus Reports | Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout). |
| F04 | Nexus Universe to Nexus Reports | After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review). |
| F05 | Nexus Foundry to Nexus Reports | National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review). |
| Ring | Nexus Standards to Nexus Reports | Nexus Standards: applied in editions. |
| F06 | Nexus Reports to Nexus Standards | Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction). |
| F12 | Nexus Reports to Nexus Universe | Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal). |
| Ring | Nexus Reports to Risk Academy | Risk Academy: taught in the open. |
Corrections log
A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.
0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition's current version.
| Edition | Version | Date | State | Change | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | Draft | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition | None |
Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.
References · NR-CIT-1
Publication record
Publication
Publisher
Colophon
Release path for this version
Release path for this version
| Step | What happens | When |
|---|---|---|
| Draft | editorial self-check complete at evidence close | October 2026 |
| Steward review | five passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N) | Q4 2026 |
| Approval | publication authority approves the exact digest | before release |
| Deposit | concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set | at release |
| Succession | the Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baseline | Q1 2027 |