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Baseline Edition 2026
Complete edition

United States Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026

The State of the United States’ Interdependent Systems

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Country Systems Risk and Resilience

United States 2026

The State of the United States’ Interdependent Systems

Baseline Edition 2026NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Imprint

Editor: Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Publisher of record: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto
Report number: NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE
Evidence close: 30 September 2026, cut NQ-USA-2026-Q0-1
Status: Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
DOI and UNI: Issued at deposit
Licence: CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence
Cite as: Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). United States Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United States’ Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/usa/

Contents

·
Executive summary
1
Chapter 1. America’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
2
Chapter 2. Key findings
3
Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline
4
Chapter 4. Risks and capability
5
Chapter 5. Western heat, fire and grid summer
6
Chapter 6. Lenses and readings
7
Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda
8
Chapter 8. Systems in depth
A
Annex A. Methodology
B
Annex B. Data appendix
C
Annex C. References and record

United States 2026
Executive summary

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

5 min read1 figure0 tables16 notesNR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE

S.1Abstract

The United States enters 2027 as the country carrying the largest share of the world’s recorded disaster losses. North America accounted for US$133 billion of the US$224 billion in global natural-disaster losses in 2025, about 70% of it insured, led by the Los Angeles wildfires at about US$53 billion². There were 27 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2024¹⁵, and the contiguous United States has warmed about 1.4 °C since 1970, faster than the global average³. Gross greenhouse-gas emissions were 6,343 Mt CO₂e in 2022; net emissions were about 17% below 2005¹. Data centres used about 4.4% of US electricity in 2023, with 6.7–12% projected for 2028⁶, and heat-related deaths reached a record 2,325 in 2023⁹. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for the five core systems, maps the dependencies through which shocks travel between them, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer in Q1 2027. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.

S.2Key messages

The eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

Gross emissions were 6,343 Mt CO₂e in 2022; net emissions about 17% below 2005.¹
Where do emissions stand?Reported
27 billion-dollar disasters in 2024; the 2025 Los Angeles fires were the costliest wildfire on record.²¹⁵
Are disaster losses rising?Reported
About 70% of 2025 North American losses were insured, but cover is retreating where risk is highest.²²¹
Who carries the losses?Reported
Heat with drought and fire, through grids, water, health and insurance.³⁹³¹
Which hazard couples the most systems?Inferred
Winter Storm Uri in 2021 showed cold can fail power, water and health together; summer peaks now add data-centre load.⁶¹⁶³¹
How exposed is the grid?Reported
The Colorado River basin, under its first shortage since 2021, and the depleting High Plains aquifer.⁸⁷
Where is water tightest?Reported
About 40% of animal species and 34% of plants are at risk of extinction.¹⁰
How is nature faring?Reported
The Western heat–fire–grid pathway into health, water and insurance. SCN-USA-HFG-01
What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002

North America carried US$133 billion of the US$224 billion in global natural-disaster losses in 2025; about US$93 billion, roughly 70%, was insured.

Figure S.1North American disaster losses, 2025 (US$ billion)

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
Insured		93
Uninsured		40

Source: Munich Re NatCatSERVICE 2025²; uninsured = overall − insured.

High insured shares can hide a growing gap at the margins. Where premiums rise and insurers withdraw, uninsured losses concentrate among households least able to bear them and shift onto state and federal budgets²¹⁴⁰.

S.4At a glance

340.1million

population, 2024⁴

1.4°C

warming since 1970³

6,343Mt CO₂e

gross emissions, 2022¹

≈43%

electricity from natural gas⁵

50minerals

on the critical list¹²

27events

billion-dollar disasters, 2024¹⁵

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of American risk.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most Americans risk arrives as a smoke-filled summer, a power cut in a heat wave or a non-renewed home policy.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. The world’s largest insured losses, a retreating homeowners market and large flood exposure outside private cover show where finance-readiness evidence will matter.

NEXUS

Synthesis

The United States is deeply observed and unevenly protected.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of the United States’ water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies between them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any agency, state, utility or company. Competent federal, state, tribal and local authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership is unaffected.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back
15NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (ed.), U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters, 1980–2024. NOAA NCEI, Asheville, NC, January 2025.back
3A. R. Crimmins, C. W. Avery, D. R. Easterling, K. E. Kunkel, B. C. Stewart and T. K. Maycock (eds.), Fifth National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 2023.back
1U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2022. EPA, Washington, DC, April 2024.back
6A. Shehabi, S. J. Smith, A. Hubbard et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, December 2024.back
9J. T. Howard, N. Androne, K. C. Alcover and A. R. Santos-Lozada, “Trends of heat-related deaths in the US, 1999–2023,” JAMA, vol. 332, no. 14, pp. 1203–1204, 2024.back
21Federal Insurance Office (ed.), Analyses of U.S. Homeowners Insurance Markets, 2018–2022: Climate-Related Risks and Other Factors. U.S. Department of the Treasury, Washington, DC, January 2025.back
31Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and North American Electric Reliability Corporation (eds.), February 2021 Cold Weather Outages in Texas and the South Central United States. FERC and NERC, Washington, DC, 2021.back
16Texas Department of State Health Services (ed.), February 2021 Winter Storm-Related Deaths, Texas. DSHS, Austin, TX, 2021.back
8U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), “Reclamation announces 2022 operating conditions for Lake Powell and Lake Mead.” News release, Washington, DC, August 2021.back
7C. A. Dieter, M. A. Maupin, R. R. Caldwell et al., Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2015, Circular 1441. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 2018.back
10NatureServe (ed.), Biodiversity in Focus: United States Edition. NatureServe, Arlington, VA, 2023.back
40Federal Emergency Management Agency (ed.), National Flood Insurance Program: program description and policy statistics. FEMA, Washington, DC, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
4U.S. Census Bureau (ed.), Vintage 2024 national population estimates. Census Bureau, Washington, DC, December 2024.back
5U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), “Electricity in the United States” and Electric Power Monthly. EIA, Washington, DC, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
12U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), “2022 Final List of Critical Minerals.” Federal Register, vol. 87, 24 February 2022.back

United States 2026
Chapter 1

America’s risk is coupled, not cumulative

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no state or territory.

6 min read2 figures2 tables13 notesNR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

Where is Canada’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

Narrative
Headline finding
Lead figure
Twelve-domain reading
Sector screens
Dependency matrix
Risk objects
Capability ladder
Scenario
Three lenses
Portfolio

1.2The argument

The United States records more disaster losses than any other country, and it usually reports them one event at a time. This baseline reads the record as a coupled system. In 2025 North America carried US$133 billion of the world’s US$224 billion in natural-disaster losses; the Los Angeles wildfires alone caused about US$53 billion, the costliest wildfire disaster on record².

Frequency now drives the record. There were 27 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2024, after a record 28 in 2023¹⁵. The Fifth National Climate Assessment found that such events, once roughly one every four months in the 1980s, now occur about every three weeks, and that the contiguous United States has warmed about 1.4 °C since 1970, faster than the global average³.

Insurance has absorbed most of these losses, about 70% in North America in 2025², but cover is retreating where risk is highest. Premiums and non-renewals have risen fastest in the most exposed ZIP codes²¹, and flood risk remains largely outside private cover⁴⁰. Where insurance withdraws, losses move onto households, states and federal assistance.

The energy system couples most of the others. Winter Storm Uri in February 2021 failed large parts of the Texas grid; water systems lost pressure and the state recorded 246 storm-related deaths¹⁶³¹. Summer peaks now add data-centre load: data centres used about 4.4% of US electricity in 2023, with 6.7–12% projected for 2028⁶.

Water is tight where growth is fastest. The first-ever shortage on the Colorado River was declared in 2021⁸, thermoelectric power and irrigation take most withdrawals⁷, and heat-related deaths reached a record 2,325 in 2023⁹. About 40% of the country’s animal species are at risk of extinction¹⁰.

This edition therefore treats American risk as a property of couplings, between heat, grids, water, health and insurance, rather than a list of separate hazards. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask where a shock travels next and who holds the capability to stop it.

Figure 1.1Where does America’s water go? Withdrawals by use, 2015 (% of total)

Power plants and farms take almost four-fifths of withdrawals. Drought and heat therefore reach electricity and food before they reach household taps⁷.

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
Thermoelectric power		41
Irrigation		37
Public supply		12
Self-supplied industry		5
All other uses		5

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2015.

Figure ID FIG-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-01-003

322bn gal/day

total withdrawals, 2015⁷

4.4%

electricity used by data centres, 2023⁶

13.5%

households food insecure, 2023¹¹

2021first

Colorado River shortage⁸

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The United States matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

Strong
Moderate
Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, to	WAT	ENE	FOO	HLT	BIO
WAT Water	·	STRONG thermoelectric cooling · hydro	STRONG irrigation · rain-fed yield	MODERATE drinking water	STRONG flows · wetlands
ENE Energy	MODERATE pumping · treatment	·	STRONG fuel · fertiliser · cold chain	STRONG facility power · cooling	MODERATE reservoirs · land use
FOO Food	MODERATE withdrawals · nutrients	WEAK biofuel feedstock	·	STRONG nutrition · food safety	STRONG land conversion
HLT Health	WEAK workforce	WEAK workforce	MODERATE labour · disease	·	WEAK residues
BIO Biodiversity	STRONG regulation · filtration	MODERATE fire on lines · biomass	STRONG pollination · soils	MODERATE zoonoses · smoke	·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

01
ENE → WAT → HLT
Cold or heat fails the grid; water pressure and care settings fail with it.
Reported Winter Storm Uri, 2021¹⁶
02
CLI → BIO → HLT
Wildfire smoke loads health services far from the fire.
Reported 2023 smoke events
03
CLI → FIN
Wildfire and hurricane losses drive insurance retreat.
Reported 2025 Los Angeles fires²
04
WAT → FOO
Aquifer decline and drought cut irrigated production.
Inferred High Plains aquifer
05
AIC → ENE
Data-centre load narrows reliability margins in extremes.
Inferred growth to 2028⁶

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Table 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
Loop	First direction	Second direction
WAT and BIO	Water to biodiversity: flows · wetlands	Biodiversity to water: regulation · filtration
FOO and BIO	Food to biodiversity: land conversion	Biodiversity to food: pollination · soils
A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back
15NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (ed.), U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters, 1980–2024. NOAA NCEI, Asheville, NC, January 2025.back
3A. R. Crimmins, C. W. Avery, D. R. Easterling, K. E. Kunkel, B. C. Stewart and T. K. Maycock (eds.), Fifth National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 2023.back
21Federal Insurance Office (ed.), Analyses of U.S. Homeowners Insurance Markets, 2018–2022: Climate-Related Risks and Other Factors. U.S. Department of the Treasury, Washington, DC, January 2025.back
40Federal Emergency Management Agency (ed.), National Flood Insurance Program: program description and policy statistics. FEMA, Washington, DC, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
16Texas Department of State Health Services (ed.), February 2021 Winter Storm-Related Deaths, Texas. DSHS, Austin, TX, 2021.back
31Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and North American Electric Reliability Corporation (eds.), February 2021 Cold Weather Outages in Texas and the South Central United States. FERC and NERC, Washington, DC, 2021.back
6A. Shehabi, S. J. Smith, A. Hubbard et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, December 2024.back
8U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), “Reclamation announces 2022 operating conditions for Lake Powell and Lake Mead.” News release, Washington, DC, August 2021.back
7C. A. Dieter, M. A. Maupin, R. R. Caldwell et al., Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2015, Circular 1441. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 2018.back
9J. T. Howard, N. Androne, K. C. Alcover and A. R. Santos-Lozada, “Trends of heat-related deaths in the US, 1999–2023,” JAMA, vol. 332, no. 14, pp. 1203–1204, 2024.back
10NatureServe (ed.), Biodiversity in Focus: United States Edition. NatureServe, Arlington, VA, 2023.back
11USDA Economic Research Service (ed.), Household Food Security in the United States in 2023. USDA ERS, Washington, DC, December 2024.back

United States 2026
Chapter 2

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

3 min read1 figure0 tables12 notesNR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002

North America carried US$133 billion of the US$224 billion in global natural-disaster losses in 2025; about US$93 billion, roughly 70%, was insured.

Figure 2.1North American disaster losses, 2025 (US$ billion)

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
Insured		93
Uninsured		40

Source: Munich Re NatCatSERVICE 2025²; uninsured = overall − insured.

Implication

What would move it

Non-renewal rates in high-risk states, reforms of residual-market insurers, and the 2026 and 2027 loss years would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001
Gross greenhouse-gas emissions were 6,343 Mt CO₂e in 2022; net emissions were about 17% below 2005.¹
ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-004
The contiguous United States has warmed about 1.4 °C since 1970, faster than the global average.³
ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005
There were 27 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2024, after a record 28 in 2023.¹⁵

2.3Finance

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002
North America carried US$133 billion of 2025’s US$224 billion in global disaster losses; about US$93 billion was insured.²
ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003
The January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires caused about US$53 billion in losses, US$40 billion insured, the costliest wildfire disaster on record.²

2.4Energy

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-ENE-006
Data centres used about 4.4% of US electricity in 2023, with 6.7–12% projected for 2028.⁶

2.5Water

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007
Water withdrawals were about 322 billion gallons a day in 2015; thermoelectric power took 41% and irrigation 37%.⁷
ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-WAT-008
The first-ever shortage on the Colorado River was declared in August 2021 for the lower basin.⁸

2.6Health

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-HLT-009
Heat-related deaths reached a record 2,325 in 2023.⁹

2.7Food

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-FOO-010
13.5% of US households were food insecure in 2023.¹¹

2.8Biodiversity

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011
About 40% of animal species and 34% of plant species in the United States are at risk of extinction.¹⁰

2.9Systemic

Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012
The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing runs from Western heat and drought through wildfire and grid stress into health, water and insurance availability. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back
21Federal Insurance Office (ed.), Analyses of U.S. Homeowners Insurance Markets, 2018–2022: Climate-Related Risks and Other Factors. U.S. Department of the Treasury, Washington, DC, January 2025.back
40Federal Emergency Management Agency (ed.), National Flood Insurance Program: program description and policy statistics. FEMA, Washington, DC, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
1U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2022. EPA, Washington, DC, April 2024.back
3A. R. Crimmins, C. W. Avery, D. R. Easterling, K. E. Kunkel, B. C. Stewart and T. K. Maycock (eds.), Fifth National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 2023.back
15NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (ed.), U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters, 1980–2024. NOAA NCEI, Asheville, NC, January 2025.back
6A. Shehabi, S. J. Smith, A. Hubbard et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, December 2024.back
7C. A. Dieter, M. A. Maupin, R. R. Caldwell et al., Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2015, Circular 1441. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 2018.back
8U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), “Reclamation announces 2022 operating conditions for Lake Powell and Lake Mead.” News release, Washington, DC, August 2021.back
9J. T. Howard, N. Androne, K. C. Alcover and A. R. Santos-Lozada, “Trends of heat-related deaths in the US, 1999–2023,” JAMA, vol. 332, no. 14, pp. 1203–1204, 2024.back
11USDA Economic Research Service (ed.), Household Food Security in the United States in 2023. USDA ERS, Washington, DC, December 2024.back
10NatureServe (ed.), Biodiversity in Focus: United States Edition. NatureServe, Arlington, VA, 2023.back

United States 2026
Chapter 3

Systems and sectors at baseline

5 min read0 figures2 tables16 notesNR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

Total freshwater and saline withdrawals

322bn gal/day

Thermoelectric power took 41% and irrigation 37%.

Reported2015USGS⁷

ENE · Energy

Data centres’ share of US electricity

4.4%

6.7–12% projected for 2028.

Reported2023LBNL⁶

FOO · Food

Households food insecure

13.5%

about 18 million households in 2023.

Reported2023USDA ERS¹¹

HLT · Health

Heat-related deaths

2,325deaths

a record; heat deaths rose sharply after 2016.

Reported2023JAMA⁹

BIO · Biodiversity

Animal species at risk of extinction

40%

and 34% of plant species.

Reported2023NatureServe¹⁰

SYS · Cross-system

North American disaster losses · insured

133 · 93US$ bn

led by the Los Angeles wildfires at about US$53 billion.

Reported2025Munich Re²

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
Domain	Posture at baseline	Coupling	Status
WAT	Ample in the East, tight in the West; Colorado River under shortage; major aquifers depleting.	WAT → ENE cooling · WAT → FOO irrigation	Reported EQL 4
ENE	Gas-led power with growing renewables; reliability stressed in extremes; data-centre load rising.	ENE ↔ WAT · ENE → HLT	Reported EQL 4
FOO	A leading producer and exporter; 13.5% of households food insecure in 2023.	FOO ← WAT, ENE · FOO → TRD	Reported EQL 4
HLT	Record heat deaths in 2023; smoke and storms load health services.	HLT ← CLI, ENE	Reported EQL 4
BIO	About 40% of animal species at risk; wildfire and land use the fastest pressures.	BIO → WAT · BIO ← fire	Reported EQL 3
CLI	Warming faster than the global average; billion-dollar disasters every three weeks.	forcing on all five systems	Reported EQL 5
INF	Ageing grids, water systems and roads; critical functions defined nationally.	INF → ENE, WAT, HLT	Inferred EQL 3
FIN	Largest insured losses in the world; cover retreating in high-risk areas.	FIN ← CLI · FIN → households, states	Reported EQL 4
DAT	Cloud and data-centre hub of the world economy; cyber exposure of utilities.	DAT → ENE, HLT, FIN	Inferred EQL 3
AIC	Data centres about 4.4% of electricity in 2023 and rising.	AIC → ENE, WAT	Reported EQL 4
MIN	50 minerals on the critical list; import reliance for many.	MIN → ENE, AIC	Reported EQL 3
TRD	Tariff changes in 2025 reshape supply chains and prices.	TRD → all sectors	Inferred EQL 3

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
Code	Sector	Baseline evidence	Exposure to watch	Evidence coverage
GS-00	Cross-system	coupled losses across perils²¹⁵	compound heat–fire–grid summers	PARTIAL
GS-01	Water	Western shortage; aquifer depletion⁷⁸	drought; allocation conflict	PARTIAL
GS-02	Energy	gas-led mix; new load from data centres⁵⁶	heat and cold extremes	GOOD
GS-03	Food	leading producer²²	drought; aquifer decline	GOOD
GS-04	Health	record heat deaths, 2023⁹	heat and smoke surges	PARTIAL
GS-05	Finance	largest insured losses²	insurance retreat²¹	GOOD
GS-06	Development	food insecurity 13.5% of households¹¹	uneven recovery capacity	PARTIAL
GS-07	Climate	warming faster than global average³	extremes of heat, rain and fire	GOOD
GS-08	Disaster	27 billion-dollar events, 2024¹⁵	frequency of medium events	GOOD
GS-09	Infrastructure	critical functions defined¹⁸	ageing assets	PARTIAL
GS-10	Cities	growth in hot and dry metros	heat and water stress	PARTIAL
GS-11	Biodiversity	40% of animal species at risk¹⁰	fire and land use	PARTIAL
GS-12	Earth observation	strong federal observation programmes	continuity of missions	PARTIAL
GS-13	Cyber and digital	critical-infrastructure guidance¹⁹	attacks on utilities	PARTIAL
GS-14	Policy	major infrastructure and energy laws²⁸²⁹	policy change since 2025	PARTIAL
GS-15	Science	deep research base	translation into operations	THIN

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

7C. A. Dieter, M. A. Maupin, R. R. Caldwell et al., Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2015, Circular 1441. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 2018.back
6A. Shehabi, S. J. Smith, A. Hubbard et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, December 2024.back
11USDA Economic Research Service (ed.), Household Food Security in the United States in 2023. USDA ERS, Washington, DC, December 2024.back
9J. T. Howard, N. Androne, K. C. Alcover and A. R. Santos-Lozada, “Trends of heat-related deaths in the US, 1999–2023,” JAMA, vol. 332, no. 14, pp. 1203–1204, 2024.back
10NatureServe (ed.), Biodiversity in Focus: United States Edition. NatureServe, Arlington, VA, 2023.back
2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back
15NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (ed.), U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters, 1980–2024. NOAA NCEI, Asheville, NC, January 2025.back
8U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), “Reclamation announces 2022 operating conditions for Lake Powell and Lake Mead.” News release, Washington, DC, August 2021.back
5U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), “Electricity in the United States” and Electric Power Monthly. EIA, Washington, DC, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
22USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (ed.), 2022 Census of Agriculture. USDA NASS, Washington, DC, 2024.back
21Federal Insurance Office (ed.), Analyses of U.S. Homeowners Insurance Markets, 2018–2022: Climate-Related Risks and Other Factors. U.S. Department of the Treasury, Washington, DC, January 2025.back
3A. R. Crimmins, C. W. Avery, D. R. Easterling, K. E. Kunkel, B. C. Stewart and T. K. Maycock (eds.), Fifth National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 2023.back
18Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (ed.), National Critical Functions: An Evolved Lens for Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience. CISA, Washington, DC, 2019.back
19The White House (ed.), National Security Memorandum on Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience (NSM-22). Washington, DC, April 2024.back
28U.S. Congress (ed.), Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, Public Law 117-58. Washington, DC, 2021.back
29U.S. Congress (ed.), Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, Public Law 117-169, as amended by Public Law 119-21 (2025). Washington, DC.back

United States 2026
Chapter 4

Risks and capability

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

3 min read0 figures1 table8 notesNR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

ReportedEQL 4RSK-USA-CLI-001
Wildfire at the urban edge, with insurance retreat
Driver
heat, drought and wind; longer fire seasons
Exposure
wildland–urban interface communities
Vulnerability
rising premiums and non-renewals²¹
Capacity
fire services; building codes; residual insurers
Cascade
CLI → BIO → HLT · CLI → FIN
Horizon
seasonal · 1 and 5 years
ReportedEQL 4RSK-USA-ENE-002
Grid failure in heat or cold extremes
Driver
extreme heat and cold; new load growth
Exposure
regions with thin reserve margins³²
Vulnerability
winterisation gaps; gas–power interdependence³¹
Capacity
interconnection; demand response; storage
Cascade
ENE → WAT → HLT
Horizon
seasonal
ReportedEQL 4RSK-USA-WAT-003
Western drought and Colorado River shortage
Driver
low flows; heat; over-allocation
Exposure
cities, farms and hydropower of the Southwest
Vulnerability
reservoirs near minimum levels
Capacity
shortage rules; conservation; groundwater
Cascade
WAT → ENE, FOO, cities
Horizon
1–5 years
ReportedEQL 3RSK-USA-CLI-004
Compound hurricane, surge and inland flooding
Driver
warmer oceans; heavier rainfall
Exposure
Gulf and Atlantic coasts; inland river valleys
Vulnerability
low flood-insurance take-up⁴⁰
Capacity
forecasting and evacuation; flood insurance
Cascade
CLI → INF → ENE, HLT, FIN
Horizon
annual

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
Function	Level	Strongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigation	EXISTS	building codes and land-use rules vary by state and locality
Monitoring and observation	DEMONSTRATED	national weather, water and Earth-observation programmes in continuous use
Early warning	DEMONSTRATED	National Weather Service warnings and wireless alerts in real events
Preparedness and planning	EXISTS	national preparedness reporting²⁰; national risk index¹⁴
Redundancy and reserves	EXISTS	strategic reserves for some commodities; grid reserve margins thin in places³²
Response	DEMONSTRATED	federal, state and local response in major disasters
Continuity of critical services	EXISTS	critical functions defined¹⁸; 2021 grid failure showed gaps³¹
Recovery	EXISTS	federal disaster assistance and state programmes
Adaptation	EXISTS	infrastructure investment law of 2021²⁸
Social protection	EXISTS	income and food assistance programmes
Finance and insurance	EXISTS	deep private markets; flood cover largely public⁴⁰
Institutional coordination	EXISTS	federal–state–tribal frameworks, tested event by event
Technical infrastructure	EXISTS	ageing assets across water, power and transport
Workforce	EXISTS	emergency and health workforce pressures documented
Research capacity	ADEQUATE	national laboratories and universities; translation uneven
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

21Federal Insurance Office (ed.), Analyses of U.S. Homeowners Insurance Markets, 2018–2022: Climate-Related Risks and Other Factors. U.S. Department of the Treasury, Washington, DC, January 2025.back
32North American Electric Reliability Corporation (ed.), 2025 Summer Reliability Assessment. NERC, Atlanta, GA, 2025.back
31Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and North American Electric Reliability Corporation (eds.), February 2021 Cold Weather Outages in Texas and the South Central United States. FERC and NERC, Washington, DC, 2021.back
40Federal Emergency Management Agency (ed.), National Flood Insurance Program: program description and policy statistics. FEMA, Washington, DC, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
20Federal Emergency Management Agency (ed.), 2024 National Preparedness Report. FEMA, Washington, DC, 2024.back
14Federal Emergency Management Agency (ed.), National Risk Index: Technical Documentation. FEMA, Washington, DC, 2023.back
18Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (ed.), National Critical Functions: An Evolved Lens for Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience. CISA, Washington, DC, 2019.back
28U.S. Congress (ed.), Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, Public Law 117-58. Washington, DC, 2021.back

United States 2026
Chapter 5

Western heat, fire and grid summer

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables1 noteNR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-USA-HFG-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline: the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers: a second dry winter in the West; a multi-day heat dome; an early and intense fire season during peak demand
Analogues: 2020 California rotating outages; 2021 Pacific Northwest heat dome; 2025 Los Angeles fires
Interventions: none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state: narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1
CLI → WAT
heat and low flows cut reservoir and hydro output
2021–2022
2
CLI → ENE
peak demand meets thin reserves; emergency alerts
2020 California
3
CLI → HLT
heat deaths and emergency visits rise
2021 heat dome
4
BIO → HLT
wildfire smoke over large cities
2020 · 2023
5
ENE → INF
public-safety power shut-offs to prevent ignition
California
6
CLI → FIN
insured losses and further non-renewals
2025²

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-USA-HFG-01 would travel through United States’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Climate to water	Heat and low flows cut reservoir and hydro output. Analogue or source: 2021–2022.	Edition USA, scenario SCN-USA-HFG-01, step 1
02 Climate to energy	Peak demand meets thin reserves; emergency alerts. Analogue or source: 2020 California.	Edition USA, scenario SCN-USA-HFG-01, step 2
03 Climate to health	Heat deaths and emergency visits rise. Analogue or source: 2021 heat dome.	Edition USA, scenario SCN-USA-HFG-01, step 3
04 Biodiversity to health	Wildfire smoke over large cities. Analogue or source: 2020 · 2023.	Edition USA, scenario SCN-USA-HFG-01, step 4
05 Energy to infrastructure	Public-safety power shut-offs to prevent ignition. Analogue or source: California.	Edition USA, scenario SCN-USA-HFG-01, step 5
06 Climate to finance	Insured losses and further non-renewals. Analogue or source: 2025 [2].	Edition USA, scenario SCN-USA-HFG-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: United States 2026, scenario SCN-USA-HFG-01 (2026); United States 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back

United States 2026
Chapter 6

Lenses and readings

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.

9 min read0 figures6 tables30 notesNR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE

6.1Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of American risk. Losses are rising with frequency; the grid couples heat and cold to water and health; and insurance is retreating where risk is highest. Evidence is strongest for losses and emissions, and weakest for state-level insurance availability and cross-system dependencies.

FIN-002 · FIN-003 · ENE-006 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most Americans risk arrives as a smoke-filled summer, a power cut in a heat wave or a non-renewed home policy. The baseline asks that these be read as one system, and that public debate weigh who carries the losses insurance no longer covers.

HLT-009 · FIN-003 · CLI-005

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. The world’s largest insured losses, a retreating homeowners market²¹ and large flood exposure outside private cover⁴⁰ show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.

FIN-002 · FIN-003

NEXUS

Synthesis

The United States is deeply observed and unevenly protected. The 2027 programme should test the Western heat–fire–grid pathway, map insurance availability by state and peril, and measure reliability margins as data-centre load grows.

SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02 · A-03

6.2GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.3Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

Insurance has absorbed most American disaster losses. Where it now withdraws, on the wildfire edge, on hurricane coasts, it is reporting what its models see. The retreat of cover is the clearest market signal of rising risk, and it shifts losses onto households and public budgets before any law does.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

The retreat of cover is the signal

Winter Storm Uri showed that when the grid fails, water, heat, health and communications fail with it. As data centres add load and extremes intensify, reliability is no longer an energy question alone; it is the coupling that holds the other systems together.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

The grid is the coupling

Heat-related deaths reached a record in 2023, mostly out of sight, in homes without cooling. Heat rarely appears in loss tables, yet it couples power demand, health services and work. It deserves the planning attention given to storms.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

Heat is the quiet disaster

The Colorado River was divided in wetter decades than these. Its first shortage in 2021 marked the point where allocation met hydrology. The same mismatch is quietly playing out in the aquifers beneath the country’s farms.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

Water was allocated for a wetter century

6.4Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.1Q1 2027 readiness pack
Item	Register	State at baseline	First Q1 2027 entry
E1	National risk state delta	baseline set by this edition	changes against the baseline
E2	WEFH+B state delta	five system readings set	indicator updates and freshness
E3	Agenda and Portfolio movement	eight agenda items · six proposed objects	admission decisions
E4	NWG delivery register	no groups yet	first monthly outputs
E5	NNC capability register	membership opens in Q1 2027	first contributions
E6	NLC questions and challenges	none yet	first challenge log
E7	Foundry technical state	environment prepared	first sealed cut
E8	Publication candidates	twelve findings carried forward	PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9	Universe readiness	one candidate mission	admission and role spine
E10	Correction register	none	first correction cycle

Publication dispositions

Publish
Hold
Needs evidence
Restricted
Superseded

6.5Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

IN FORCE
ADOPTED
SUBMITTED
UNDER REVIEW
PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

Table 6.2Standards and regulatory watch
Instrument	Body	Scope	Status	Relevance
Paris Agreement, United States withdrawal³⁰	UNFCCC	international	WITHDRAWN · JAN 2026	emissions framework
Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act²⁸	U.S. Congress	federal	IN FORCE	infrastructure resilience
Inflation Reduction Act, as amended in 2025²⁹	U.S. Congress	federal	IN FORCE · AMENDED	clean-energy credits
NSM-22 on critical infrastructure¹⁹	The White House	federal	ISSUED 2024	resilience roles
National Critical Functions¹⁸	CISA	federal	PUBLISHED	critical infrastructure
Export controls on advanced computing³⁴	BIS	federal	IN FORCE · UPDATED	chips and AI
Critical minerals list¹²	USGS	federal	PUBLISHED 2022	supply security
Sendai Framework 2015–2030	UNDRR	international	ADOPTED 2015	disaster risk reduction

Changed since 2024

The US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement took effect in January 2026³⁰
Clean-energy tax credits were amended in 2025²⁹
NOAA retired its billion-dollar disaster series in 2025¹⁵

To watch in 2027

Colorado River operating guidelines after 2026
State reforms of residual-market insurers
NERC reliability standards for extreme weather

6.6Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question: What does the published evidence establish about the United States’ coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?
Sources searched: peer-reviewed literature; federal assessments and statistics; state and industry data; loss records
Window: releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection: sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step: systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Table 6.3Peer-reviewed science and assessments
Reference	Type	Year	Role	Used for
Crimmins et al. (eds.)³	assessment	2023	supports	warming, disaster frequency
Howard et al.⁹	journal article	2024	supports	heat deaths
Lee and Romero (eds.)²³	assessment	2023	context	global forcing
Zscheischler et al.²⁴	journal article	2018	framework	compound events
Buldyrev et al.²⁵	journal article	2010	framework	cascades
McElwee et al. (eds.)²⁶	assessment	2024	context	nexus interlinkages

Table 6.4Institutional reports
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
GHG Inventory¹	EPA	2024	supports	emissions
Cold weather outages³¹	FERC · NERC	2021	supports	grid failure
Homeowners insurance markets²¹	Treasury FIO	2025	supports	insurance retreat
National Risk Index¹⁴	FEMA	2023	context	hazard exposure
National Preparedness Report²⁰	FEMA	2024	context	capability

Table 6.5Industry and loss data
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Annual catastrophe figures²	Munich Re	2026	supports	losses
Billion-dollar disasters¹⁵	NOAA NCEI	2025	supports	frequency
Data-centre energy⁶	LBNL	2024	supports	electricity
Summer reliability³²	NERC	2025	supports	grid margins
Energy and AI²⁷	IEA	2025	context	load growth

Table 6.6Standards, regulation and national official sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Water use 2015⁷	USGS	2018	supports	withdrawals
Colorado shortage⁸	Bureau of Reclamation	2021	supports	water
Food security¹¹	USDA ERS	2024	supports	food
Census of Agriculture²²	USDA NASS	2024	supports	production
Biodiversity in Focus¹⁰	NatureServe	2023	supports	species at risk
Critical minerals¹²¹³	USGS	2022–25	supports	minerals

Where the evidence agrees

Disaster frequency and losses are rising³¹⁵
Heat is a growing and under-counted health risk⁹
The West faces structural water shortage⁸

Where it is unsettled

How fast data-centre load will grow⁶
How insurance markets will adjust in high-risk states²¹
How much warming is attributable in individual events

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

21Federal Insurance Office (ed.), Analyses of U.S. Homeowners Insurance Markets, 2018–2022: Climate-Related Risks and Other Factors. U.S. Department of the Treasury, Washington, DC, January 2025.back
40Federal Emergency Management Agency (ed.), National Flood Insurance Program: program description and policy statistics. FEMA, Washington, DC, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
30UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement, and notification of withdrawal by the United States of America (effective January 2026). United Nations, New York.back
28U.S. Congress (ed.), Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, Public Law 117-58. Washington, DC, 2021.back
29U.S. Congress (ed.), Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, Public Law 117-169, as amended by Public Law 119-21 (2025). Washington, DC.back
19The White House (ed.), National Security Memorandum on Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience (NSM-22). Washington, DC, April 2024.back
18Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (ed.), National Critical Functions: An Evolved Lens for Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience. CISA, Washington, DC, 2019.back
34U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), export controls on advanced computing and semiconductor manufacturing items. Federal Register, October 2022, as updated.back
12U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), “2022 Final List of Critical Minerals.” Federal Register, vol. 87, 24 February 2022.back
15NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (ed.), U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters, 1980–2024. NOAA NCEI, Asheville, NC, January 2025.back
3A. R. Crimmins, C. W. Avery, D. R. Easterling, K. E. Kunkel, B. C. Stewart and T. K. Maycock (eds.), Fifth National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 2023.back
9J. T. Howard, N. Androne, K. C. Alcover and A. R. Santos-Lozada, “Trends of heat-related deaths in the US, 1999–2023,” JAMA, vol. 332, no. 14, pp. 1203–1204, 2024.back
23H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.back
24J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018.back
25S. V. Buldyrev, R. Parshani, G. Paul, H. E. Stanley and S. Havlin, “Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks,” Nature, vol. 464, pp. 1025–1028, 2010.back
26P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 back
1U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2022. EPA, Washington, DC, April 2024.back
31Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and North American Electric Reliability Corporation (eds.), February 2021 Cold Weather Outages in Texas and the South Central United States. FERC and NERC, Washington, DC, 2021.back
14Federal Emergency Management Agency (ed.), National Risk Index: Technical Documentation. FEMA, Washington, DC, 2023.back
20Federal Emergency Management Agency (ed.), 2024 National Preparedness Report. FEMA, Washington, DC, 2024.back
2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back
6A. Shehabi, S. J. Smith, A. Hubbard et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, December 2024.back
32North American Electric Reliability Corporation (ed.), 2025 Summer Reliability Assessment. NERC, Atlanta, GA, 2025.back
27International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
7C. A. Dieter, M. A. Maupin, R. R. Caldwell et al., Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2015, Circular 1441. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 2018.back
8U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), “Reclamation announces 2022 operating conditions for Lake Powell and Lake Mead.” News release, Washington, DC, August 2021.back
11USDA Economic Research Service (ed.), Household Food Security in the United States in 2023. USDA ERS, Washington, DC, December 2024.back
22USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (ed.), 2022 Census of Agriculture. USDA NASS, Washington, DC, 2024.back
10NatureServe (ed.), Biodiversity in Focus: United States Edition. NatureServe, Arlington, VA, 2023.back
13U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025. USGS, Reston, VA, 2025.back

United States 2026
Chapter 7

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables2 notesNR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE

7.1Questions for the operational series

A-01
How would a Western summer of heat, drought and wildfire load the grid, water supply, health services and insurance at the same time?
INI-USA-HFG-01 · Western heat–fire–grid; first output: dependency graph for three regions.
A-02
Where is homeowners insurance retreating under wildfire, hurricane and flood risk, and where do the uninsured losses land?
INI-USA-FIN-02 · insurance availability; first output: state-by-peril availability table.
A-03
How much reliability margin remains when data-centre load grows during heat and cold extremes?
INI-USA-ENE-03 · load and reliability; first output: margin analysis for five regions.
A-04
How much food production depends on the depleting High Plains and Central Valley aquifers?
INI-USA-WAT-04 · aquifer dependence; first output: aquifer–crop dependence register.
A-05
What health-system surge capacity exists for record heat in large southern and western cities?
INI-USA-HLT-05 · heat surge readiness; first output: surge baseline for ten metro areas.
A-06
How will Colorado River allocation after 2026 couple to cities, farms and hydropower?
With GS-01 Water; first output: basin scenario note.
A-07
How exposed are coastal communities to compound hurricane, surge and inland flooding?
To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.
A-08
Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?
National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
ID	Object	Kind	Question	State
INI-USA-HFG-01	Western heat–fire–grid dependency model	Initiative	A-01	PROPOSED
INI-USA-FIN-02	Insurance availability by state and peril	Initiative	A-02	PROPOSED
INI-USA-ENE-03	Load growth and reliability margins	Initiative	A-03	PROPOSED
INI-USA-WAT-04	Aquifer dependence of food production	Initiative	A-04	PROPOSED
INI-USA-HLT-05	Heat surge readiness in large metros	Initiative	A-05	PROPOSED
MSN-USA-2027-01	Western heat–fire–grid Universe mission	Mission	A-01	Candidate

7.3The pathway

United States is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

01
One National Agenda
bounded national questions for the year
DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment
02
National Desk
coordination, records, routing and continuity
DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027
03
National Model
the country as a system of systems
v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut
04
National Portfolio
risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions
7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment
05
Foundry
continuous computational environment
PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-USA-2027-Q1
06
Reports
quarterly and annual publication
BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda
07
Universe
annual proving environment
CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027
08
Evidence and correction
after-action, correction and renewal
OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

01
Mandate
02
Core Build · 1 month
03
Action · 1 week
04
Evidence seal
05
Portfolio correction
06
Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
Item	Record	State	Timing
F1	Annual mandate record	PLANNED	after the Q2 2027 alignment
F2	Core Build record	PLANNED	one month before the exercise
F3	Exercise evidence	PLANNED	during the Action week
F4	Decision packets	PLANNED	exercise state only
F5	Proof receipts	PLANNED	scoped to each recorded check
F6	After-action report	PLANNED	within one quarter
F7	Upgrade docket	PLANNED	routed to the Portfolio
F8	Portfolio renewal	PLANNED	Q4 2027 annual edition
F9	Public synthesis	PLANNED	public-safe extracts only

Mission

ID: MSN-USA-2027-01 · Western heat–fire–grid
Role spine: Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors: to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
Finding	Routed to	Purpose	Class
CLI-001 · emissions	public record	reference for the 2027 series	PUBLIC
FIN-002 · losses	finance-readiness review (key F)	insurance availability A-02	PUBLIC
FIN-003 · Los Angeles fires	INI-USA-FIN-02	insurance retreat	PUBLIC
ENE-006 · data centres	INI-USA-ENE-03 · XT-01	reliability margins	PUBLIC
WAT-008 · Colorado River	GS-01 Water edition	basin scenario	PUBLIC
HLT-009 · heat deaths	INI-USA-HLT-05	surge readiness	PUBLIC
BIO-011 · species at risk	GS-11 Biodiversity edition	condition baseline	PUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathway	MSN-USA-2027-01	Universe candidate	CONSORTIUM

Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
Class	Where it goes	Who can see it
PUBLIC	the published edition and its evidence bundle	anyone
CONSORTIUM	governed rooms of the national pathway	consortium members under agreement
CONTROLLED	need-to-know channels	named competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
Feed	Producer	Latency	Feeds into
U.S. Drought Monitor	National Drought Mitigation Center	weekly	RSK-USA-WAT-003
National Weather Service alerts	NOAA	real time	early-warning rung
Fire weather and incidents	National Interagency Fire Center	daily in season	RSK-USA-CLI-001
Electric Power Monthly	EIA	monthly	ENE findings
Reliability assessments	NERC	seasonal	RSK-USA-ENE-002
Catastrophe estimates	reinsurers and index providers	per event	FIN findings
Heat-health data	CDC and state health departments	weekly in season	HLT-009

Table 7.6Signals at baseline
ID	Signal	Corroboration	Systems	Route
SIG-CAN-001	Recurrent low water in western reservoirs and rivers, 2023–2025	PARTIAL	WAT · ENE	research question A-01
SIG-CAN-002	H5N1 in poultry and wild birds; a domestically acquired human case in 2024²⁷	CORROBORATED	HLT · FOO · BIO	monitoring
SIG-CAN-003	Fire seasons starting earlier and lasting longer⁴⁰	CORROBORATED	CLI · BIO · HLT	risk object RSK-CAN-CLI-001

Escalation routes

none · keep monitoring
research question
project
risk object
quarterly publication
signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

27International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
40Federal Emergency Management Agency (ed.), National Flood Insurance Program: program description and policy statistics. FEMA, Washington, DC, retrieved 2026-09-30.back

United States 2026
Chapter 8

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

6 min read0 figures5 tables16 notesNR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

America’s water is ample in total and tight where growth is fastest. Power plants and farms take most withdrawals, and the West is in structural shortage.

322bn gal/day

withdrawals, 2015⁷

41%

for thermoelectric power⁷

2021first

Colorado River shortage⁸

Table 8.1State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Withdrawals	thermoelectric 41%, irrigation 37%, public supply 12%	⁷	Reported
Western shortage	first Colorado River shortage declared in 2021	⁸	Reported
Groundwater	High Plains and Central Valley depletion	⁷	Inferred
Drought	tracked weekly nationwide	¹⁷	Reported
Service access	tribal and rural gaps not consolidated	,	Expert input

Couplings into other systems

WAT → ENE cooling and hydro
WAT → FOO irrigation
WAT → HLT drinking water
BIO → WAT watershed regulation

Evidence to bind in 2027

aquifer levels and recharge
post-2026 Colorado allocation
tribal water access

Related editions

REG-NAM North America
GLB Global Systems
GS-01 Water
GS-02 Energy
GS-05 Finance
XT-01 AI

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

A gas-led electricity system with growing renewables faces two pressures at once: extremes of heat and cold, and fast new load from data centres.

≈43%

electricity from natural gas⁵

4.4%

used by data centres, 2023⁶

246deaths

Winter Storm Uri, Texas¹⁶

Table 8.2State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Generation mix	gas about 43%, nuclear about 18%, growing renewables	⁵	Reported
Reliability	reserve margins thin in some regions	³²	Reported
Extremes	2021 cold-weather failures across Texas and the South Central US	³¹	Reported
New load	data centres 4.4% in 2023, 6.7–12% projected for 2028	⁶	Reported
Policy	clean-energy credits amended in 2025	²⁹	Reported

Couplings into other systems

ENE → WAT pumping and treatment
ENE → HLT cooling and care
AIC → ENE data-centre load

Evidence to bind in 2027

reliability margins under compound heat
gas–power interdependence in winter

Related editions

REG-NAM North America
GLB Global Systems
GS-01 Water
GS-02 Energy
GS-05 Finance
XT-01 AI

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

The United States is one of the world’s largest food producers and exporters, yet 13.5% of its households were food insecure in 2023.

13.5%

households food insecure, 2023¹¹

37%

of withdrawals for irrigation⁷

2022census

of agriculture²²

Table 8.3State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Production	large grain, oilseed and livestock output	²²	Reported
Irrigation	depends on depleting aquifers in key regions	⁷	Inferred
Access	13.5% of households food insecure	¹¹	Reported
Trade	export markets exposed to tariff changes	,	Inferred
Drought	Plains and Western production exposed	¹⁷	Reported

Couplings into other systems

WAT → FOO irrigation
ENE → FOO inputs and cold chain
FOO → TRD exports
FOO → HLT nutrition

Evidence to bind in 2027

aquifer dependence of production
food access after disasters

Related editions

REG-NAM North America
GLB Global Systems
GS-01 Water
GS-02 Energy
GS-05 Finance
XT-01 AI

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Heat is the fastest-growing climate–health risk. Grid failures turn weather into health emergencies, and smoke reaches cities far from fire.

2,325deaths

heat-related, 2023⁹

246deaths

Winter Storm Uri, Texas, 2021¹⁶

2023record

heat mortality year⁹

Table 8.4State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Heat	record heat deaths in 2023	⁹	Reported
Cold and outages	deaths in the 2021 Texas grid failure	¹⁶	Reported
Smoke	wildfire smoke over large cities	³	Reported
Surge capacity	not consolidated nationally	,	Expert input
One Health	zoonotic risks tracked by federal agencies	³	Inferred

Couplings into other systems

CLI → HLT heat and smoke
ENE → HLT power for care and cooling
FOO → HLT nutrition

Evidence to bind in 2027

heat surge capacity in large metros
cooling access for at-risk households

Related editions

REG-NAM North America
GLB Global Systems
GS-01 Water
GS-02 Energy
GS-05 Finance
XT-01 AI

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Many of the country’s species are at risk, and wildfire, land use and water stress are the fastest-changing pressures.

40%

of animal species at risk¹⁰

34%

of plant species at risk¹⁰

2025record

costliest wildfire disaster²

Table 8.5State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Species	about 40% of animal species at risk of extinction	¹⁰	Reported
Plants	about 34% of plant species at risk	¹⁰	Reported
Fire	larger and more destructive fires in the West	³	Reported
Freshwater	river and wetland ecosystems under water stress	³	Inferred
Services	watershed regulation, pollination, carbon storage	²⁶	Inferred

Couplings into other systems

BIO → WAT watershed regulation
BIO → FOO pollination
CLI → BIO fire and heat

Evidence to bind in 2027

ecosystem condition indicators
species trends by region

Related editions

REG-NAM North America
GLB Global Systems
GS-01 Water
GS-02 Energy
GS-05 Finance
XT-01 AI

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

7C. A. Dieter, M. A. Maupin, R. R. Caldwell et al., Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2015, Circular 1441. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 2018.back
8U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), “Reclamation announces 2022 operating conditions for Lake Powell and Lake Mead.” News release, Washington, DC, August 2021.back
17National Drought Mitigation Center (ed.), U.S. Drought Monitor. University of Nebraska–Lincoln, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
5U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), “Electricity in the United States” and Electric Power Monthly. EIA, Washington, DC, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
6A. Shehabi, S. J. Smith, A. Hubbard et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, December 2024.back
16Texas Department of State Health Services (ed.), February 2021 Winter Storm-Related Deaths, Texas. DSHS, Austin, TX, 2021.back
32North American Electric Reliability Corporation (ed.), 2025 Summer Reliability Assessment. NERC, Atlanta, GA, 2025.back
31Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and North American Electric Reliability Corporation (eds.), February 2021 Cold Weather Outages in Texas and the South Central United States. FERC and NERC, Washington, DC, 2021.back
29U.S. Congress (ed.), Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, Public Law 117-169, as amended by Public Law 119-21 (2025). Washington, DC.back
11USDA Economic Research Service (ed.), Household Food Security in the United States in 2023. USDA ERS, Washington, DC, December 2024.back
22USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (ed.), 2022 Census of Agriculture. USDA NASS, Washington, DC, 2024.back
9J. T. Howard, N. Androne, K. C. Alcover and A. R. Santos-Lozada, “Trends of heat-related deaths in the US, 1999–2023,” JAMA, vol. 332, no. 14, pp. 1203–1204, 2024.back
3A. R. Crimmins, C. W. Avery, D. R. Easterling, K. E. Kunkel, B. C. Stewart and T. K. Maycock (eds.), Fifth National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 2023.back
10NatureServe (ed.), Biodiversity in Focus: United States Edition. NatureServe, Arlington, VA, 2023.back
2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back
26P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 back

United States 2026
Annex A

Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

9 min read0 figures12 tables6 notesNR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE

A.1Methods

The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.	Derivation	Calculation	Result
(1)	Insured share of North American losses, 2025	93 ÷ 133	≈ 70%
(2)	Uninsured North American losses, 2025	133 − 93	US$40 bn
(3)	Share of withdrawals for power and irrigation	41 + 37	≈ 78%
(4)	Insured share of the Los Angeles wildfires	40 ÷ 53	≈ 75%

Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
Strength	Definition
STRONG	a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season
MODERATE	an effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAK	an effect is plausible but not documented at national scale

Table A.3Status grammar
Label	Rule
Reported	value as issued by its source, with year
Inferred	reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
Estimated	Nexus analytical value with stated method
Scenario	conditional on stated assumptions
Expert input	structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card, National Model v0

Model ID: MDL-USA-NATIONAL · v0.1
Purpose: represent the United States as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers
Family: graph-based system of systems
Inputs: the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method: expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events
Validation: none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence
Uncertainty: qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity: national scale; not for state or asset-level use
Reproducibility: strength table and sources published in this edition

20couplings

typed in v0

9strong

documented within one season

7moderate

documented, buffered

4weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.

Cut ID: NQ-USA-2026-Q0-1
Type: baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy: pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned: 40 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references
Model runs: none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest: computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes: nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by: NQ-USA-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

01
source edition
02
pinned citation
03
finding
04
page
05
publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the first Foundry cut
Element	Baseline 2026	Q1 2027
Sources	cited publications, pinned by edition	qualified source bindings with versions
Analysis	stated methods and editorial estimates	typed analysis specifications
Models	National Model v0 specification	model runs with receipts
Findings	twelve baseline findings	findings re-bound to the cut
Review	five passes scheduled	five passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
Indicator	Observed	Released	Cadence	Next release
Gross GHG emissions	2022	Apr 2024	annual	next inventory
Disaster losses	2025	Jan 2026	annual	Jan 2027
Billion-dollar disasters	2024	Jan 2025	retired	,
Population	2024	Dec 2024	annual	annual
Data-centre electricity share	2023	Dec 2024	periodic	next report
Water withdrawals	2015	2018	five-yearly	next national estimate
Heat-related deaths	2023	Aug 2024	periodic	new studies
Household food insecurity	2023	Dec 2024	annual	annual
Species at risk	2023	2023	periodic	next edition
Warming since 1970	to 2023	Nov 2023	periodic	next assessment

Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
System	Coverage	Thinnest dimension
Climate forcing	GOOD	state-level downscaling
Energy	GOOD	reliability margins under new load
Finance	GOOD	insurance availability by state
Food	GOOD	aquifer dependence
Water	PARTIAL	water-use data last compiled for 2015
Health	PARTIAL	heat surge capacity
Biodiversity	PARTIAL	ecosystem condition
Digital and cyber	THIN	dependency mapping

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Issued by the Environmental Protection Agency under the UNFCCC. National coverage 1990–2022 with IPCC methods; each edition revises earlier years. Role: binds CLI-001.

EVD-USA-001

Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks¹

Issued by the U.S. Geological Survey from state and federal data, compiled every five years. Role: binds WAT-007 and the withdrawal figure.

EVD-USA-002

Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2015⁷

Table A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
Dimension	EVD-CAN-001	EVD-CAN-002
Completeness	all sectors and gases	all categories; some modelled
Timeliness	about 16 months after the year	about three years after the year
Revision	annual back-revision	revised between compilations
Method transparency	published annexes	published methods
External validation	UNFCCC expert review	state agency review

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

Fifth National Climate Assessment³, warming and frequency findings
Heat-mortality study⁹, death-certificate method
Homeowners insurance analysis²¹, ZIP-level method
Data-centre report⁶, scenario method

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.8Publication acceptance record
Group	Area	Items	Pass	N/A	Pending
D1	Identity and scope	8	8	0	0
D2	Source and data	12	9	1	2
D3	Analysis and models	12	3	8	1
D4	Findings and claims	9	8	0	1
D5	Figures, tables, maps	10	6	2	2
D6	Editorial and citations	10	8	0	2
D7	Review and approval	13	0	0	13
D8	Artefact and design	12	7	0	5
D9	Registry and release	9	0	0	9

Publication gate

Conditions met: 14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems: none recorded
Open conditions: reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs: first runs in Q1 2027
Maps: plates in Q2 2027
Waivers: none

A.7Status words

Table A.9The status every value carries
Status	What it means
Observed	Measured directly and published by the source.
Reported	Published statistics of an official or institutional source.
Declared	Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
Estimated	A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
Modelled	Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.
Inferred	Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
Forecast	A projection by the cited source.
Simulated	A simulation result under stated assumptions.
Scenario	A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert input	Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.
Candidate	Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Evidence arrives from the pillars	Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealed	On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembled	The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turn	At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opens	A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and deposited	The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on five sites	Only then do the five Reports sites show the edition as published, each reading it through its own lens.
08 Corrections go to Standards	Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.10Series terms
Term	Meaning
Baseline Edition	the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+B	water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Coupling	a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gap	the share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladder	LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQL	evidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cut	a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWG	National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups

Table A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
Abbreviation	Expansion
BIS	Bureau of Industry and Security
CISA	Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency
EIA	Energy Information Administration
EPA	Environmental Protection Agency
ERS	USDA Economic Research Service
FEMA	Federal Emergency Management Agency
FERC	Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
FIO	Federal Insurance Office
LBNL	Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
NCA5	Fifth National Climate Assessment
NERC	North American Electric Reliability Corporation
NOAA	National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NSM-22	National Security Memorandum on Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience
USGS	U.S. Geological Survey

A.10Technical annex

Table A.12Technical annex
Item	Annex	Contents	Status
A.1	Indicator definitions	the baseline indicator set, with units and sources	IN THIS EDITION
A.2	Coupling strengths	the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale	IN THIS EDITION
A.3	Scenario specification	SCN-USA-HFG-01 assumptions and signposts	IN THIS EDITION
A.4	Capability placements	rung evidence for fifteen functions	IN THIS EDITION
A.5	Model diagnostics	first runs and validation	Q1 2027
A.6	Sensitivity analyses	influence of coupling strengths	Q2 2027
A.7	State notes	atlas cards for every state and territory	Q2 2027
A.8	Review statements	pass-by-pass review record	AT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition, gross greenhouse-gas emissions

Construct: annual anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions before land-sector removals
Unit: Mt CO₂e, 100-year global warming potentials
Scope: gross total; net total includes land use, land-use change and forestry
Source: EPA Inventory 1990–2022¹
Revision: back-revised each edition
Known limits: about 16 months’ lag at release

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2022. EPA, Washington, DC, April 2024.back
7C. A. Dieter, M. A. Maupin, R. R. Caldwell et al., Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2015, Circular 1441. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 2018.back
3A. R. Crimmins, C. W. Avery, D. R. Easterling, K. E. Kunkel, B. C. Stewart and T. K. Maycock (eds.), Fifth National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 2023.back
9J. T. Howard, N. Androne, K. C. Alcover and A. R. Santos-Lozada, “Trends of heat-related deaths in the US, 1999–2023,” JAMA, vol. 332, no. 14, pp. 1203–1204, 2024.back
21Federal Insurance Office (ed.), Analyses of U.S. Homeowners Insurance Markets, 2018–2022: Climate-Related Risks and Other Factors. U.S. Department of the Treasury, Washington, DC, January 2025.back
6A. Shehabi, S. J. Smith, A. Hubbard et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, December 2024.back

United States 2026
Annex B

Data appendix

The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

8 min read0 figures7 tables15 notesNR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE

B.1The indicator set

Table B.1Baseline indicator set
Indicator	Value	Unit	Year	State	Source
Gross GHG emissions	6,343	Mt CO₂e	2022	Reported	¹
Net emissions against 2005	≈ −17	%	2022	Reported	¹
North American disaster losses	133	US$ billion	2025	Reported	²
Insured North American losses	93	US$ billion	2025	Reported	²
Los Angeles wildfires, overall	53	US$ billion	2025	Reported	²
Billion-dollar disasters	27	events	2024	Reported	¹⁵
Warming of the contiguous US since 1970	≈1.4	°C	to 2023	Reported	³
Population	340.1	million	2024	Reported	⁴
Data-centre share of electricity	4.4	%	2023	Reported	⁶
Projected data-centre share	6.7–12	%	2028	Scenario	⁶
Water withdrawals	322	bn gal/day	2015	Reported	⁷
Thermoelectric share of withdrawals	41	%	2015	Reported	⁷
Irrigation share of withdrawals	37	%	2015	Reported	⁷
Heat-related deaths	2,325	deaths	2023	Reported	⁹
Winter Storm Uri deaths, Texas	246	deaths	2021	Reported	¹⁶
Households food insecure	13.5	%	2023	Reported	¹¹
Animal species at risk	40	%	2023	Reported	¹⁰
Critical minerals listed	50	minerals	2022	Reported	¹²

Indicators, CSV Indicators, JSON

B.2National source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Table B.3National source register
Source	Category	Coverage	Period	Cadence	Role
GHG Inventory¹	national technical authority	national · state	1990–2022	annual	CLI · ENE
Fifth National Climate Assessment³	scientific assessment	national	to 2023	periodic	CLI
Population estimates⁴	national statistics	national · state	2024	annual	profile
Electricity statistics⁵	national statistics	national · state	monthly	monthly	ENE
Data-centre report⁶	national laboratory	national	2023	periodic	ENE
Water use⁷	national technical authority	national · state	2015	five-yearly	WAT
Heat mortality⁹	peer-reviewed	national	1999–2023	one-off	HLT
Food security¹¹	national statistics	national	2023	annual	FOO
Biodiversity in Focus¹⁰	civil society	national	2023	periodic	BIO
Billion-dollar disasters¹⁵	national technical authority	national	1980–2024	retired 2025	FIN
Catastrophe figures²	industry	regional	2025	annual	FIN
Insurance markets²¹	federal office	national · ZIP	2018–2022	one-off	FIN

Domains bound by the register

B.3Regional reading, the United States by climate region

Map plates for every state and territory follow in Q2 2027. This page gives the regional reading in table form, using the regions of the national climate assessment, and ranks no region.

Table B.4Regional reading, the United States by climate region
Region	Principal hazards	Systems most exposed	Baseline evidence
Northeast	heat, extreme rainfall, coastal flooding	cities, transit, health	NCA5³
Southeast	hurricanes, heat, inland flooding	power, housing, insurance	NCA5³
Midwest	floods, heat, drought	agriculture, rivers, rail	NCA5³
Great Plains	drought, hail, winter storms	agriculture, grid, aquifers	Uri 2021¹⁶
Southwest	drought, heat, wildfire	water, power, health	Colorado shortage⁸
Northwest	heat domes, wildfire, low snowpack	hydro, health, forests	NCA5³
Alaska	permafrost thaw, coastal erosion, wildfire	communities, infrastructure	NCA5³
Hawai‘i and Pacific islands	wildfire, drought, sea-level rise	water supply, communities	NCA5³
US Caribbean	hurricanes, flooding, heat	power, water, health	NCA5³

The leading compound pathway runs through the West: low snowpack, heat domes, wildfire smoke and grid peaks in the same summer, with insurance retreating at the fire edge.

WEST

Heat, water and fire

Winter Storm Uri showed how cold can fail power, gas and water together; the Plains also hold the depleting High Plains aquifer.

GREAT PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL

Cold, drought and the grid

Warmer oceans bring heavier rain far inland, where flood-insurance take-up is low.

SOUTHEAST AND GULF

Hurricanes and inland flooding

B.4Atlas card, California

state
basin
grid region
wildland–urban interface

Systems in view: water, energy, health, insurance
Defining events: January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires, about US$53 billion in losses²; 2020 rotating outages; recurrent drought
Couplings: CLI → BIO → HLT smoke; CLI → FIN insurance; WAT → ENE hydro
Capability evidence: fire services and alerts used in real events; residual-market insurance under strain²¹
Gaps: insurance availability by area; grid margins under heat; groundwater
Agenda items: A-01 · A-02 · A-04

California holds the costliest wildfire disaster on record. Rising premiums and non-renewals in high-risk areas move losses onto households and public budgets [2] [21].

INSURANCE

Where cover retreats

Heat waves push demand to its peak as hydro output falls in dry years, as in the rotating outages of 2020.

ENERGY

Peak demand in heat

In drought, farms in the Central Valley lean on groundwater, deepening a depletion that shapes the next drought.

WATER

Groundwater as buffer

B.5United States system card

The card through which the United States appears in the North America regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Table B.5United States system card
System	Baseline state	Coupling to watch	Coverage
Water	ample in the East; Western shortage	drought into power, food and cities	PARTIAL
Energy	gas-led mix; growing new load	extremes and data centres	GOOD
Food	leading producer and exporter	aquifers and drought	GOOD
Health	record heat deaths	heat, smoke, storms	PARTIAL
Biodiversity	many species at risk	fire and land use	PARTIAL

The United States card sits beside those of Canada and Mexico; shared basins, grids, rail and supply chains are read as one regional system.

NORTH AMERICA REGIONAL EDITION

One regional system

American evidence enters the water, energy, food, finance and climate sector reports through the same finding identifiers, so a correction travels everywhere at once.

GLOBAL SECTOR SERIES

Same findings, same IDs

In the global edition the United States is read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.

GLOBAL FLAGSHIP

Peers, not ranks

Context

Archetype: high-income federal republic with a continental climate range
Population: 340.1 million (2024)⁴
Losses: largest recorded disaster losses in the world²
Energy: natural gas about 43% of electricity⁵

B.6Licences

Table B.6Licences of each kind of material
Material	Licence
Text	CC BY 4.0
Data	on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0
Figures	Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited
Maps	boundary source and licence printed on each plate
Metadata	CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it
Third-party data, figures and text	The source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed
Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.

B.7Formats and provenance

Table B.7This edition in every format
Format	Kind	State	What it is	Identifier
Web edition	HTML	On this site	Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.	NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Print edition	PDF	At release	A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.	NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Indicator data	CSV · JSON	On this site	18 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.	NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE data release v1
Figures	SVG · PNG	On this site	4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.	FIG-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-*
Slides	PDF	Not recorded	No slide deck is recorded for this edition.
Evidence brief	HTML · PDF	Not recorded	No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
Dataset with DOI	DataCite	At release	Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

Provenance

Edition pack: The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
Evidence cut: NQ-USA-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026
Reproducibility: sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Self-check: 14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
Review: five passes scheduled before release
Publisher of record: GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Corrections: Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2022. EPA, Washington, DC, April 2024.back
2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back
15NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (ed.), U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters, 1980–2024. NOAA NCEI, Asheville, NC, January 2025.back
3A. R. Crimmins, C. W. Avery, D. R. Easterling, K. E. Kunkel, B. C. Stewart and T. K. Maycock (eds.), Fifth National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 2023.back
4U.S. Census Bureau (ed.), Vintage 2024 national population estimates. Census Bureau, Washington, DC, December 2024.back
6A. Shehabi, S. J. Smith, A. Hubbard et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, December 2024.back
7C. A. Dieter, M. A. Maupin, R. R. Caldwell et al., Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2015, Circular 1441. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 2018.back
9J. T. Howard, N. Androne, K. C. Alcover and A. R. Santos-Lozada, “Trends of heat-related deaths in the US, 1999–2023,” JAMA, vol. 332, no. 14, pp. 1203–1204, 2024.back
16Texas Department of State Health Services (ed.), February 2021 Winter Storm-Related Deaths, Texas. DSHS, Austin, TX, 2021.back
11USDA Economic Research Service (ed.), Household Food Security in the United States in 2023. USDA ERS, Washington, DC, December 2024.back
10NatureServe (ed.), Biodiversity in Focus: United States Edition. NatureServe, Arlington, VA, 2023.back
12U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), “2022 Final List of Critical Minerals.” Federal Register, vol. 87, 24 February 2022.back
5U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), “Electricity in the United States” and Electric Power Monthly. EIA, Washington, DC, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
21Federal Insurance Office (ed.), Analyses of U.S. Homeowners Insurance Markets, 2018–2022: Climate-Related Risks and Other Factors. U.S. Department of the Treasury, Washington, DC, January 2025.back
8U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), “Reclamation announces 2022 operating conditions for Lake Powell and Lake Mead.” News release, Washington, DC, August 2021.back

United States 2026
Annex C

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

10 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE

C.140 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2022. EPA, Washington, DC, April 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
3A. R. Crimmins, C. W. Avery, D. R. Easterling, K. E. Kunkel, B. C. Stewart and T. K. Maycock (eds.), Fifth National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
4U.S. Census Bureau (ed.), Vintage 2024 national population estimates. Census Bureau, Washington, DC, December 2024. Cited in the summary
5U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), “Electricity in the United States” and Electric Power Monthly. EIA, Washington, DC, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 8
6A. Shehabi, S. J. Smith, A. Hubbard et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, December 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
7C. A. Dieter, M. A. Maupin, R. R. Caldwell et al., Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2015, Circular 1441. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 2018. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
8U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), “Reclamation announces 2022 operating conditions for Lake Powell and Lake Mead.” News release, Washington, DC, August 2021. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
9J. T. Howard, N. Androne, K. C. Alcover and A. R. Santos-Lozada, “Trends of heat-related deaths in the US, 1999–2023,” JAMA, vol. 332, no. 14, pp. 1203–1204, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
10NatureServe (ed.), Biodiversity in Focus: United States Edition. NatureServe, Arlington, VA, 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
11USDA Economic Research Service (ed.), Household Food Security in the United States in 2023. USDA ERS, Washington, DC, December 2024. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
12U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), “2022 Final List of Critical Minerals.” Federal Register, vol. 87, 24 February 2022. Cited in the summary, chapter 6
13U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025. USGS, Reston, VA, 2025. Cited in chapter 6
14Federal Emergency Management Agency (ed.), National Risk Index: Technical Documentation. FEMA, Washington, DC, 2023. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
15NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (ed.), U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters, 1980–2024. NOAA NCEI, Asheville, NC, January 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
16Texas Department of State Health Services (ed.), February 2021 Winter Storm-Related Deaths, Texas. DSHS, Austin, TX, 2021. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 8
17National Drought Mitigation Center (ed.), U.S. Drought Monitor. University of Nebraska–Lincoln, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in chapter 8
18Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (ed.), National Critical Functions: An Evolved Lens for Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience. CISA, Washington, DC, 2019. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
19The White House (ed.), National Security Memorandum on Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience (NSM-22). Washington, DC, April 2024. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
20Federal Emergency Management Agency (ed.), 2024 National Preparedness Report. FEMA, Washington, DC, 2024. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
21Federal Insurance Office (ed.), Analyses of U.S. Homeowners Insurance Markets, 2018–2022: Climate-Related Risks and Other Factors. U.S. Department of the Treasury, Washington, DC, January 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
22USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (ed.), 2022 Census of Agriculture. USDA NASS, Washington, DC, 2024. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
23H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
24J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Cited in chapter 6
25S. V. Buldyrev, R. Parshani, G. Paul, H. E. Stanley and S. Havlin, “Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks,” Nature, vol. 464, pp. 1025–1028, 2010. Cited in chapter 6
26P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
27International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 7
28U.S. Congress (ed.), Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, Public Law 117-58. Washington, DC, 2021. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
29U.S. Congress (ed.), Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, Public Law 117-169, as amended by Public Law 119-21 (2025). Washington, DC. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
30UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement, and notification of withdrawal by the United States of America (effective January 2026). United Nations, New York. Cited in chapter 6
31Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and North American Electric Reliability Corporation (eds.), February 2021 Cold Weather Outages in Texas and the South Central United States. FERC and NERC, Washington, DC, 2021. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
32North American Electric Reliability Corporation (ed.), 2025 Summer Reliability Assessment. NERC, Atlanta, GA, 2025. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
33WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. WMO, Geneva, March 2026.
34U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), export controls on advanced computing and semiconductor manufacturing items. Federal Register, October 2022, as updated. Cited in chapter 6
35S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports, The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
36S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0.
37S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Canada Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0.
38S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Water Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
39S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Exponential Technology Report 2026, AI and Agentic Systems, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
40Federal Emergency Management Agency (ed.), National Flood Insurance Program: program description and policy statistics. FEMA, Washington, DC, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title: United States Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition
Series: Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition: Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version: v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID: NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close: 30 September 2026
Publication date: October 2026
DOI: concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place: Toronto
Editor: Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards: GCRI · technical truth · GRF · public meaning · GRA · capital meaning
Licence: text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Language: English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence: Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format: A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces: Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard: Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility: tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production: Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
Step	What happens	When
Draft	editorial self-check complete at evidence close	October 2026
Steward review	five passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)	Q4 2026
Approval	publication authority approves the exact digest	before release
Deposit	concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set	at release
Succession	the Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baseline	Q1 2027

Current version: v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition: none, first edition of the series
Next edition: NR-COUNTRY-USA-2027-Q1-v1.0.0

Latest version: resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route: Registry correction pathway
Notice types: erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

Edition	Version	Date	State	Change	Notice
USA	NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0	October 2026	Draft	Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,	None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID: NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Series alias: NR-NAT-USA-2026-BL
DOI: Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions: Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle: RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID: Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR: Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account: None needed to contribute; never a password

Find and follow

Search the open indexes for United States; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.

Mirrors and harvest

The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.

InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on United States, prefilled from this page

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
USA edition Reports United States 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; USA is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

Handoff	Between	What crosses, and when
F03	Foundry to Reports	Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04	Universe to Reports	After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05	Foundry to Reports	National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Ring	Nexus Standards to Reports	Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06	Reports to Nexus Standards	Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12	Reports to Universe	Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Ring	Reports to Risk Academy	Risk Academy: taught in the open.

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

S.3Headline finding

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

Technical Truth

Public Meaning

Capital Meaning

Synthesis

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

What it is not

What comes next

Notes

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

In this part

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

Transmission paths

1.4Reinforcing loops

Notes

2.1Headline finding

Implication

What would move it

2.2Climate forcing

2.3Finance

2.4Energy

2.5Water

2.6Health

2.7Food

2.8Biodiversity

2.9Systemic

Notes

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

Total freshwater and saline withdrawals

Data centres’ share of US electricity

Households food insecure

Heat-related deaths

Animal species at risk of extinction

North American disaster losses · insured

3.2Domain posture

3.3Sector screens

Notes

4.1Risk objects

Wildfire at the urban edge, with insurance retreat

Grid failure in heat or cold extremes

Western drought and Colorado River shortage

Compound hurricane, surge and inland flooding

4.2Capability ladder

Notes

5.1Assumptions

5.2The cascade, step by step

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

Notes

6.1Three lenses

Technical Truth

Public Meaning

Capital Meaning

Synthesis

6.2GCRI reading: the model card

6.3Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

6.4Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

Publication dispositions

6.5Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Changed since 2024

To watch in 2027

6.6Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

Review protocol

Where the evidence agrees

Where it is unsettled

Notes

7.1Questions for the operational series

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

7.3The pathway

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission