Risks and capability

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

2 min read0 figures1 table7 notesNR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Germany’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Hot, dry summer with low Rhine water
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-DEU-CLI-001

    Flash floods in small, steep catchments

    Driver
    stationary storms with extreme rainfall
    Exposure
    valley towns in upland regions
    Vulnerability
    short warning times; uninsured homes13
    Capacity
    flood forecasting; civil protection; reconstruction funds
    Cascade
    CLI → WAT → INF, HLT, FIN
    Horizon
    annual

  2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-DEU-WAT-002

    Low water on the Rhine

    Driver
    dry summers; low snowmelt from the Alps
    Exposure
    freight, chemical and steel supply chains
    Vulnerability
    reliance on one waterway for bulk freight
    Capacity
    part-loading; rail and road diversion
    Cascade
    WAT → TRD → industry, ENE
    Horizon
    seasonal

  3. ReportedEQL 4RSK-DEU-CLI-003

    Extreme heat

    Driver
    heatwaves and tropical nights
    Exposure
    older people; dense cities
    Vulnerability
    housing without cooling; isolation
    Capacity
    heat-health warnings; heat action plans
    Cascade
    CLI → HLT · CLI → ENE
    Horizon
    seasonal

  4. ReportedEQL 4RSK-DEU-BIO-004

    Forest dieback under drought and pests

    Driver
    drought, heat and bark beetles
    Exposure
    spruce-dominated forests
    Vulnerability
    monocultures planted for cooler climates
    Capacity
    forest conversion programmes
    Cascade
    CLI → BIO → WAT, carbon
    Horizon
    5–30 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSflood protection and planning rules; adaptation law in force10
Monitoring and observationDEMONSTRATEDDWD and federal monitoring in continuous use
Early warningEXISTSwarning gaps in small catchments shown in 202114
Preparedness and planningEXISTSadaptation strategy9; resilience strategy25
Redundancy and reservesDEMONSTRATEDgas storage and LNG used in the 2022 supply crisis17
ResponseDEMONSTRATEDcivil-protection and federal relief in 2021
Continuity of critical servicesEXISTScritical-infrastructure rules under development
RecoveryEXISTSfederal and Land reconstruction funds after 202114
AdaptationEXISTSfirst federal adaptation law, 202410
Social protectionEXISTSenergy-price relief in 2022–2023
Finance and insuranceEXISTSnatural-hazard cover on about 54% of homes13
Institutional coordinationEXISTSfederal–Land crisis structures, tested in 2021
Technical infrastructureEXISTSinfrastructure and climate fund created 202540
WorkforceEXISTSvolunteer-based civil protection; staffing pressures
Research capacityADEQUATEstrong climate, water and engineering science
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 13Gesamtverband der Deutschen Versicherungswirtschaft (ed.), Naturgefahrenreport 2024. GDV, Berlin, 2024.back
  2. 10Bundestag (ed.), Bundes-Klimaanpassungsgesetz (KAnG). Bundesgesetzblatt, Berlin, 2023; in force 1 July 2024.back
  3. 14Bundesministerium des Innern und für Heimat (ed.), Bericht zur Hochwasserkatastrophe 2021: Katastrophenhilfe, Wiederaufbau und Evaluierungsprozesse. BMI, Berlin, 2022.back
  4. 9Bundesregierung (ed.), Vorsorgende Klimaanpassungsstrategie der Bundesregierung. Berlin, December 2024.back
  5. 25Bundesamt für Bevölkerungsschutz und Katastrophenhilfe (ed.), Deutsche Strategie zur Stärkung der Resilienz gegenüber Katastrophen. BBK, Bonn, 2022.back
  6. 17Bundesnetzagentur (ed.), Lageberichte zur Gasversorgung 2022–2023. BNetzA, Bonn.back
  7. 40Bundestag (ed.), Gesetz zur Errichtung eines Sondervermögens Infrastruktur und Klimaneutralität. Bundesgesetzblatt, Berlin, 2025.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Germany Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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