Germany’s risk is coupled, not cumulative

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no Land or region.

6 min read2 figures2 tables18 notesNR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Germany’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
    1. 1.1 The questions this part answers
    2. 1.2 The argument
    3. 1.3 Twenty couplings between five systems
    4. 1.4 Reinforcing loops
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot, dry summer with low Rhine water
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

  • Where is Canada’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
  • Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
  • Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
  • What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

  • Narrative
  • Headline finding
  • Lead figure
  • Twelve-domain reading
  • Sector screens
  • Dependency matrix
  • Risk objects
  • Capability ladder
  • Scenario
  • Three lenses
  • Portfolio

1.2The argument

Germany’s climate risks are usually discussed one at a time: a flood, a drought, a heatwave, a gas crisis. This baseline reads them as one coupled system. In July 2021 a few days of extreme rain turned small valleys into torrents; more than 180 people died in Germany, 135 in the Ahr valley alone, and damage reached about €40 billion1415. Attribution studies found the rainfall made more likely and more intense by climate change39.

The forcing is measurable. 2024 was the warmest year in a record that begins in 18818, and about 4,500 heat-related deaths were estimated in 20224. The first federal climate adaptation law took effect in July 2024, and the federal government adopted a precautionary adaptation strategy in December 2024910.

Water couples drought to the economy. In the dry summers of 2018 and 2022 low water on the Rhine, the country’s main freight artery, forced barges to sail part-loaded and restricted supplies to chemical and steel plants24. Power-plant cooling remains the largest single use of abstracted water12. The national water strategy of 2023 sets out how supply is to be secured to 205026.

The energy system has been rebuilt under pressure. Renewables supplied about 54% of gross electricity consumption in 20247; the last nuclear reactors closed in April 202316; and when Russian pipeline gas stopped in 2022, storage, new LNG terminals and demand cuts kept supply secure17. Emissions fell to 649 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 48% below 19901, but the 2030 target still requires about 35 Mt of cuts a year3.

Losses and nature carry slower but deeper exposures. Only about 54% of homes carry natural-hazard insurance13, so flood losses fall heavily on households and public reconstruction funds. About 500,000 hectares of forest were damaged by drought, heat and bark beetles between 2018 and 202120, and flying-insect biomass fell by more than 75% over 27 years in protected areas18.

This edition therefore treats German risk as a property of couplings, between rain, rivers, freight, power, forests and health, rather than a list of separate hazards. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask where a shock travels next and who holds the capability to stop it.

Figure 1.1Who abstracts Germany’s water? Share of water abstraction, by sector (%)

Power-plant cooling is the largest use of abstracted water, followed by public supply and industry. Agriculture uses little water today, but irrigation demand rises in dry summers12.

ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Energy supply (cooling)44
Public water supply27
Mining and manufacturing27
Agriculture2

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2019.

Figure ID FIG-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-01-003

≈54%

renewable electricity, 20247

2023April

last nuclear reactors closed16

2023strategy

national water strategy26

2018 · 2022low water

on the Rhine24

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Germany matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, toWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT Water·STRONG
nuclear cooling · hydro		STRONG
irrigation · rain-fed yield		MODERATE
drinking water		STRONG
flows · wetlands
ENE EnergyMODERATE
pumping · treatment		·STRONG
fuel · fertiliser · cold chain		STRONG
facility power · cooling		MODERATE
reservoirs · land use
FOO FoodMODERATE
withdrawals · nutrients		WEAK
biofuel feedstock		·STRONG
nutrition · food safety		STRONG
land conversion
HLT HealthWEAK
workforce		WEAK
workforce		MODERATE
labour · disease		·WEAK
residues
BIO BiodiversitySTRONG
regulation · filtration		MODERATE
fire on lines · biomass		STRONG
pollination · soils		MODERATE
zoonoses · smoke		·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

  1. 01

    CLI → WAT → INF

    Extreme rain in small valleys destroys roads, rail and homes.

    Reported July 202114

  2. 02

    CLI → WAT → TRD

    Low Rhine water restricts freight and industrial supply.

    Reported 2018 · 202224

  3. 03

    ENE → industry → FIN

    A gas supply shock raises costs across industry and households.

    Reported 202217

  4. 04

    CLI → BIO → WAT

    Drought and bark beetles kill forests that regulate water.

    Reported 2018–202120

  5. 05

    CLI → HLT

    Heatwaves raise deaths among older people.

    Reported 20224

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Table 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
LoopFirst directionSecond direction
WAT and BIOWater to biodiversity: flows · wetlandsBiodiversity to water: regulation · filtration
FOO and BIOFood to biodiversity: land conversionBiodiversity to food: pollination · soils
A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 14Bundesministerium des Innern und für Heimat (ed.), Bericht zur Hochwasserkatastrophe 2021: Katastrophenhilfe, Wiederaufbau und Evaluierungsprozesse. BMI, Berlin, 2022.back
  2. 15Prognos, IÖW and GWS (eds.), Kosten durch Klimawandelfolgen in Deutschland. Report for BMWK and BMUV, Berlin, 2022.back
  3. 39F. Kreienkamp, S. Y. Philip, J. S. Tradowsky et al., Rapid attribution of heavy rainfall events leading to the severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021. World Weather Attribution, 2021.back
  4. 8Deutscher Wetterdienst (ed.), Deutschlandwetter im Jahr 2024. DWD, Offenbach, December 2024.back
  5. 4Robert Koch-Institut (ed.), “Hitzebedingte Mortalität in Deutschland 2022,” Epidemiologisches Bulletin. RKI, Berlin, 2023.back
  6. 9Bundesregierung (ed.), Vorsorgende Klimaanpassungsstrategie der Bundesregierung. Berlin, December 2024.back
  7. 10Bundestag (ed.), Bundes-Klimaanpassungsgesetz (KAnG). Bundesgesetzblatt, Berlin, 2023; in force 1 July 2024.back
  8. 24Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (ed.), Das Niedrigwasser 2018 und 2022 an Rhein und Elbe. BfG, Koblenz.back
  9. 12Statistisches Bundesamt (ed.), Nichtöffentliche und öffentliche Wasserversorgung und Abwasserentsorgung 2019. Destatis, Wiesbaden, 2022.back
  10. 26Bundesregierung (ed.), Nationale Wasserstrategie. Berlin, March 2023.back
  11. 7Umweltbundesamt (ed.), Erneuerbare Energien in Zahlen 2024 (AGEE-Stat). UBA, Dessau-Roßlau, 2025.back
  12. 16Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz (ed.), “Abschaltung der letzten drei Kernkraftwerke am 15. April 2023.” BMWK, Berlin, 2023.back
  13. 17Bundesnetzagentur (ed.), Lageberichte zur Gasversorgung 2022–2023. BNetzA, Bonn.back
  14. 1Umweltbundesamt (ed.), Treibhausgas-Emissionen in Deutschland 2024: Vorjahresschätzung. UBA, Dessau-Roßlau, March 2025.back
  15. 3Expertenrat für Klimafragen (ed.), Prüfbericht zur Berechnung der deutschen Treibhausgasemissionen für das Jahr 2024. ERK, Berlin, 2025.back
  16. 13Gesamtverband der Deutschen Versicherungswirtschaft (ed.), Naturgefahrenreport 2024. GDV, Berlin, 2024.back
  17. 20Thünen-Institut (ed.), Satellitengestützte Erfassung der Waldschäden in Deutschland 2018–2021. Thünen-Institut, Braunschweig, 2022.back
  18. 18C. A. Hallmann, M. Sorg, E. Jongejans et al., “More than 75 percent decline over 27 years in total flying insect biomass in protected areas,” PLOS ONE, vol. 12, e0185809, 2017.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 1: Germany’s risk is coupled, not cumulative. In Germany Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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