The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Germany’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot, dry summer with low Rhine water
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. A-01

    How would a hot, dry summer with low Rhine water travel through freight, industrial supply, power, forests and health at the same time?

    INI-DEU-HDR-01 · hot, dry Rhine summer; first output: dependency graph for the Rhine corridor.

  2. A-02

    Where are small, steep catchments most exposed to flash floods like those of 2021, and how much warning do they get?

    INI-DEU-FLD-02 · flash-flood exposure; first output: exposure register by district.

  3. A-03

    How would wider natural-hazard insurance change who carries flood and heavy-rain losses?

    INI-DEU-FIN-03 · cover and fiscal backstop; first output: loss-sharing table, 2002–2025.

  4. A-04

    How much grid flexibility remains as coal exits and heating and transport electrify?

    INI-DEU-ENE-04 · grid flexibility; first output: flexibility margin analysis.

  5. A-05

    What heat surge capacity exists for older people at home and in care?

    INI-DEU-HLT-05 · heat surge readiness; first output: surge baseline for five Länder.

  6. A-06

    How are forests recovering after 2018–2021, and what does that mean for water and carbon?

    With GS-11 Biodiversity; first output: forest condition note.

  7. A-07

    How do insect declines affect pollination and yields?

    To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. A-08

    Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

    National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-DEU-HDR-01Hot, dry Rhine summer dependency modelInitiativeA-01PROPOSED
INI-DEU-FLD-02Flash-flood exposureInitiativeA-02PROPOSED
INI-DEU-FIN-03Natural-hazard cover and fiscal backstopInitiativeA-03PROPOSED
INI-DEU-ENE-04Grid flexibilityInitiativeA-04PROPOSED
INI-DEU-HLT-05Heat surge readinessInitiativeA-05PROPOSED
MSN-DEU-2027-01Hot, dry Rhine summer Universe missionMissionA-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

Germany is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run from 2027, across the federation and the sixteen Länder. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

  1. 01

    One National Agenda

    bounded national questions for the year

    DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

  2. 02

    National Desk

    coordination, records, routing and continuity

    DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

  3. 03

    National Model

    the country as a system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

  4. 04

    National Portfolio

    risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

    7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

  5. 05

    Foundry

    continuous computational environment

    PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-DEU-2027-Q1

  6. 06

    Reports

    quarterly and annual publication

    BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

  7. 07

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

  8. 08

    Evidence and correction

    after-action, correction and renewal

    OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNEDQ4 2027 annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-DEU-2027-01 · hot, dry Rhine summer
Role spine
Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
CLI-001 · emissionspublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
WAT-004 · 2021 floodsINI-DEU-FLD-02flash-flood exposurePUBLIC
FIN-005 · insurance coverINI-DEU-FIN-03 · key F reviewloss sharingPUBLIC
ENE-006 · renewablesINI-DEU-ENE-04 · GS-02grid flexibilityPUBLIC
HLT-008 · heat deathsINI-DEU-HLT-05heat surge readinessPUBLIC
WAT-009 · Rhine low waterINI-DEU-HDR-01 · GS-01hot, dry Rhine summerPUBLIC
BIO-010 · insectsGS-11 Biodiversity editioncondition baselinePUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-DEU-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the national pathwayconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Weather warningsDWDreal timeearly-warning rung
Flood forecastsLand flood centresreal timeRSK-DEU-CLI-001
Waterway levels (Kaub and others)federal waterways administrationreal timeRSK-DEU-WAT-002
Heat-health warningsDWDdaily in seasonRSK-DEU-CLI-003
Electricity data (SMARD)Bundesnetzagenturreal timeENE findings
Gas storage levelsBundesnetzagenturdailyENE-007
Forest fire danger indexDWDdaily in seasonRSK-DEU-BIO-004

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • quarterly publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-DEU-001Recurrent low summer water on the Rhine24CORROBORATEDWAT · TRDinitiative A-01
SIG-DEU-002Flash-flood exposure in small catchments14CORROBORATEDWAT · INFinitiative A-02
SIG-DEU-003Continued forest damage after 2018–202121CORROBORATEDBIO · WATresearch question A-06

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 24Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (ed.), Das Niedrigwasser 2018 und 2022 an Rhein und Elbe. BfG, Koblenz.back
  2. 14Bundesministerium des Innern und für Heimat (ed.), Bericht zur Hochwasserkatastrophe 2021: Katastrophenhilfe, Wiederaufbau und Evaluierungsprozesse. BMI, Berlin, 2022.back
  3. 21Bundesministerium für Ernährung und Landwirtschaft (ed.), Ergebnisse der Waldzustandserhebung 2024. BMEL, Berlin, 2025.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Germany Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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