Italy Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

The eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. 363 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 30% below 1990, but transport keeps rising and the 2030 effort-sharing target is off track.¹³

   Where do emissions stand?Reported

2. 2024 was the warmest year in the Italian record; the national adaptation plan was approved in December 2023.²¹⁹

   Is the climate already changing?Reported

3. Italy recorded 18,010 heat-related deaths in summer 2022 and 12,743 in 2023, mostly among older people.⁴⁵

   Who is most exposed to heat?Reported

4. About 94% of municipalities face landslide, flood or erosion hazard; 6.8 million people live in medium flood-hazard areas.¹¹

   How exposed is the territory?Reported

5. Only 7.3% of homes are insured against earthquake and flood; the State has acted as insurer of last resort.¹³

   Who carries disaster losses?Reported

6. Russian gas fell from about 40% of imports to under 5%; renewables met 41.2% of demand in 2024.⁷⁸

   How did energy cope with 2022?Reported

7. 42.4% of the water fed into municipal networks was lost in 2022.¹²

   How secure is water supply?Reported

8. A drought-to-flood year: a hot, dry summer on the Po followed by autumn cloudbursts on dried soils. SCN-ITA-DFL-01

   What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-HLT-004

Italy recorded 18,010 heat-related deaths in the summer of 2022, the highest number of any European country, and a further 12,743 in 2023.

Heat falls hardest on older people, and Italy has one of the oldest populations in Europe. Heat is therefore as much a question of care, housing and isolation as of meteorology, and it coincides with drought and peak power demand⁴⁶.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1ISPRA (ed.), Italian Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2024: National Inventory Document 2026. ISPRA, Rome, April 2026.back
2. 3ISPRA (ed.), Le emissioni di gas serra in Italia: obiettivi di riduzione e scenari emissivi. ISPRA, Rome, 2026.back
3. 7Terna (ed.), Consumi elettrici in Italia nel 2024: dati provvisori. Terna, Rome, January 2025.back
4. 8Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Relazione sulla situazione energetica nazionale nel 2023. MASE, Rome, 2024.back
5. 21ISPRA and SNPA (eds.), Gli indicatori del clima in Italia nel 2024. ISPRA, Rome, 2025.back
6. 4J. Ballester, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022,” Nature Medicine, vol. 29, pp. 1857–1866, 2023.back
7. 11ISPRA (ed.), Dissesto idrogeologico in Italia: pericolosità e indicatori di rischio, Edizione 2021, Rapporti 356/2021. ISPRA, Rome, 2021.back
8. 14Regione Emilia-Romagna (ed.), Alluvione di maggio 2023: rapporto sugli eventi e stima dei danni. Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, 2023.back
9. 13ANIA (ed.), L’assicurazione italiana 2024–2025 and Relazione del Presidente all’Assemblea annuale. ANIA, Rome, July 2025.back
10. 9Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Piano Nazionale di Adattamento ai Cambiamenti Climatici (PNACC). MASE, Rome, December 2023.back
11. 5E. Gallo, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health,” Nature Medicine, vol. 30, pp. 3101–3105, 2024.back
12. 12ISTAT (ed.), Le statistiche dell’Istat sull’acqua, anni 2020–2023. ISTAT, Rome, March 2024.back
13. 6ISTAT (ed.), Indicatori demografici, anno 2024. ISTAT, Rome, March 2025.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is Canada’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
• Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
• Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
• What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Italy matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   CLI → WAT → FOO

   Drought on the Po cuts irrigation and harvests.

   Reported 2022²³²⁴

2. 02

   CLI → WAT → INF

   Cloudbursts on dried soils trigger floods and landslides.

   Reported May 2023¹⁴

3. 03

   CLI → HLT

   Heatwaves raise deaths among older people.

   Reported 2022⁴

4. 04

   ENE → FIN

   A gas supply shock raises costs for industry and households.

   Reported 2022⁸

5. 05

   BIO → FOO

   Xylella kills olive groves in Apulia.

   Reported since 2013¹⁹

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 24Autorità di bacino distrettuale del fiume Po (ed.), Osservatorio permanente sugli utilizzi idrici: bollettini di severità idrica 2022. AdBPo, Parma, 2022.back
2. 26A. Bondesan and R. G. Francese, “The climate-driven disaster of the Marmolada Glacier (Italy),” Geomorphology, vol. 431, 108687, 2023.back
3. 4J. Ballester, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022,” Nature Medicine, vol. 29, pp. 1857–1866, 2023.back
4. 14Regione Emilia-Romagna (ed.), Alluvione di maggio 2023: rapporto sugli eventi e stima dei danni. Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, 2023.back
5. 21ISPRA and SNPA (eds.), Gli indicatori del clima in Italia nel 2024. ISPRA, Rome, 2025.back
6. 5E. Gallo, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health,” Nature Medicine, vol. 30, pp. 3101–3105, 2024.back
7. 9Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Piano Nazionale di Adattamento ai Cambiamenti Climatici (PNACC). MASE, Rome, December 2023.back
8. 11ISPRA (ed.), Dissesto idrogeologico in Italia: pericolosità e indicatori di rischio, Edizione 2021, Rapporti 356/2021. ISPRA, Rome, 2021.back
9. 13ANIA (ed.), L’assicurazione italiana 2024–2025 and Relazione del Presidente all’Assemblea annuale. ANIA, Rome, July 2025.back
10. 15Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (ed.), Sequenza sismica del Centro Italia 2016–2017: bilancio e attività. DPC, Rome, 2017.back
11. 16INGV (ed.), Campi Flegrei: bollettini di sorveglianza 2024–2025. Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
12. 12ISTAT (ed.), Le statistiche dell’Istat sull’acqua, anni 2020–2023. ISTAT, Rome, March 2024.back
13. 7Terna (ed.), Consumi elettrici in Italia nel 2024: dati provvisori. Terna, Rome, January 2025.back
14. 8Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Relazione sulla situazione energetica nazionale nel 2023. MASE, Rome, 2024.back
15. 1ISPRA (ed.), Italian Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2024: National Inventory Document 2026. ISPRA, Rome, April 2026.back
16. 10Parlamento (ed.), Legge 30 dicembre 2023, n. 213, art. 1, commi 101–111: obbligo di copertura assicurativa contro i rischi catastrofali per le imprese. Gazzetta Ufficiale, Rome, 2023.back
17. 40Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Piano Nazionale Integrato per l’Energia e il Clima (PNIEC), final version. MASE, Rome, June 2024.back
18. 23CREA (ed.), Annuario dell’agricoltura italiana 2022. CREA, Rome, 2023.back
19. 19K. Schneider, W. van der Werf, M. Cendoya et al., “Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117, pp. 9250–9259, 2020.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-HLT-004

Italy recorded 18,010 heat-related deaths in the summer of 2022, the highest number of any European country, and a further 12,743 in 2023.

Implication

Heat falls hardest on older people, and Italy has one of the oldest populations in Europe. Heat is therefore as much a question of care, housing and isolation as of meteorology, and it coincides with drought and peak power demand⁴⁶.

What would move it

Heat-health alerts each summer, cooling in care homes and attributable-death estimates for 2024 and 2025 would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

   Greenhouse-gas emissions were 363 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 3.6% below 2023 and 30.2% below 1990.¹

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

   Transport emissions are about 11% above 1990, and the 2030 effort-sharing target of −43.7% against 2005 is off track on current policies.¹³

3. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

   2024 was the warmest year in the Italian record.²¹

2.3Health

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-HLT-004

   Italy recorded 18,010 heat-related deaths in summer 2022, the highest number of any European country.⁴

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-HLT-005

   A further 12,743 heat-related deaths were estimated in 2023.⁵

2.4Water

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006

   The May 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna killed 17 people and caused damage of about €8.5 billion.¹⁴

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007

   About 94% of municipalities are exposed to landslides, floods or coastal erosion; 6.8 million people live in medium flood-hazard areas and 1.3 million in high landslide-hazard areas.¹¹

3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-WAT-008

   42.4% of the water fed into municipal networks was lost in 2022.¹²

2.5Energy

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-ENE-009

   Renewables met 41.2% of electricity demand in 2024; Russian gas fell from about 40% of imports in 2021 to under 5% by 2023.⁷⁸

2.6Geopolitics

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-GEO-010

   About 40% of buildings stand in medium-high seismic zones; the 2016 earthquake killed 299 people, and the Campi Flegrei produced M4.4 and M4.6 earthquakes in 2024–2025.¹³¹⁵¹⁶

2.7Finance

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011

   Only 7.3% of homes are insured against earthquake and flood, and about 16% of firms complied with the business insurance mandate a year after it began.¹⁰¹³

2.8Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a drought-to-flood year: a hot, dry summer on the Po followed by autumn cloudbursts on dried soils. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 4J. Ballester, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022,” Nature Medicine, vol. 29, pp. 1857–1866, 2023.back
2. 5E. Gallo, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health,” Nature Medicine, vol. 30, pp. 3101–3105, 2024.back
3. 6ISTAT (ed.), Indicatori demografici, anno 2024. ISTAT, Rome, March 2025.back
4. 1ISPRA (ed.), Italian Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2024: National Inventory Document 2026. ISPRA, Rome, April 2026.back
5. 3ISPRA (ed.), Le emissioni di gas serra in Italia: obiettivi di riduzione e scenari emissivi. ISPRA, Rome, 2026.back
6. 21ISPRA and SNPA (eds.), Gli indicatori del clima in Italia nel 2024. ISPRA, Rome, 2025.back
7. 14Regione Emilia-Romagna (ed.), Alluvione di maggio 2023: rapporto sugli eventi e stima dei danni. Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, 2023.back
8. 11ISPRA (ed.), Dissesto idrogeologico in Italia: pericolosità e indicatori di rischio, Edizione 2021, Rapporti 356/2021. ISPRA, Rome, 2021.back
9. 12ISTAT (ed.), Le statistiche dell’Istat sull’acqua, anni 2020–2023. ISTAT, Rome, March 2024.back
10. 7Terna (ed.), Consumi elettrici in Italia nel 2024: dati provvisori. Terna, Rome, January 2025.back
11. 8Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Relazione sulla situazione energetica nazionale nel 2023. MASE, Rome, 2024.back
12. 13ANIA (ed.), L’assicurazione italiana 2024–2025 and Relazione del Presidente all’Assemblea annuale. ANIA, Rome, July 2025.back
13. 15Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (ed.), Sequenza sismica del Centro Italia 2016–2017: bilancio e attività. DPC, Rome, 2017.back
14. 16INGV (ed.), Campi Flegrei: bollettini di sorveglianza 2024–2025. Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
15. 10Parlamento (ed.), Legge 30 dicembre 2023, n. 213, art. 1, commi 101–111: obbligo di copertura assicurativa contro i rischi catastrofali per le imprese. Gazzetta Ufficiale, Rome, 2023.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 12ISTAT (ed.), Le statistiche dell’Istat sull’acqua, anni 2020–2023. ISTAT, Rome, March 2024.back
2. 7Terna (ed.), Consumi elettrici in Italia nel 2024: dati provvisori. Terna, Rome, January 2025.back
3. 8Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Relazione sulla situazione energetica nazionale nel 2023. MASE, Rome, 2024.back
4. 22Eurostat (ed.), Economic accounts for agriculture: agricultural output by Member State, 2024. Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025.back
5. 4J. Ballester, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022,” Nature Medicine, vol. 29, pp. 1857–1866, 2023.back
6. 20J. San-Miguel-Ayanz et al. (eds.), Forest Fires in Europe, Middle East and North Africa 2021. Joint Research Centre, Ispra, 2022.back
7. 13ANIA (ed.), L’assicurazione italiana 2024–2025 and Relazione del Presidente all’Assemblea annuale. ANIA, Rome, July 2025.back
8. 11ISPRA (ed.), Dissesto idrogeologico in Italia: pericolosità e indicatori di rischio, Edizione 2021, Rapporti 356/2021. ISPRA, Rome, 2021.back
9. 14Regione Emilia-Romagna (ed.), Alluvione di maggio 2023: rapporto sugli eventi e stima dei danni. Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, 2023.back
10. 24Autorità di bacino distrettuale del fiume Po (ed.), Osservatorio permanente sugli utilizzi idrici: bollettini di severità idrica 2022. AdBPo, Parma, 2022.back
11. 21ISPRA and SNPA (eds.), Gli indicatori del clima in Italia nel 2024. ISPRA, Rome, 2025.back
12. 15Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (ed.), Sequenza sismica del Centro Italia 2016–2017: bilancio e attività. DPC, Rome, 2017.back
13. 18ISPRA (ed.), Annuario dei dati ambientali 2024. ISPRA, Rome, 2025.back
14. 16INGV (ed.), Campi Flegrei: bollettini di sorveglianza 2024–2025. Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
15. 9Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Piano Nazionale di Adattamento ai Cambiamenti Climatici (PNACC). MASE, Rome, December 2023.back
16. 10Parlamento (ed.), Legge 30 dicembre 2023, n. 213, art. 1, commi 101–111: obbligo di copertura assicurativa contro i rischi catastrofali per le imprese. Gazzetta Ufficiale, Rome, 2023.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-ITA-CLI-001

   Extreme heat

   Driver

   heatwaves and tropical nights

   Exposure

   older people; dense cities

   Vulnerability

   one of Europe’s oldest populations; housing without cooling

   Capacity

   heat-health alert system; summer plans

   Cascade

   CLI → HLT · CLI → ENE

   Horizon

   seasonal

2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-ITA-WAT-002

   Drought in the Po basin and the South

   Driver

   dry winters; low Alpine snowpack; hot summers

   Exposure

   irrigation, hydropower, drinking water

   Vulnerability

   network losses of 42.4%¹²

   Capacity

   basin water-severity observatories²⁴

   Cascade

   WAT → FOO, ENE, HLT

   Horizon

   seasonal · 5 years

3. ReportedEQL 4RSK-ITA-CLI-003

   Floods and landslides

   Driver

   cloudbursts; autumn storms

   Exposure

   6.8 million in medium flood hazard; 1.3 million in high landslide hazard¹¹

   Vulnerability

   building on unstable slopes and floodplains

   Capacity

   regional alert centres; civil protection

   Cascade

   CLI → WAT → INF, HLT, FIN

   Horizon

   annual

4. ReportedEQL 4RSK-ITA-GEO-004

   Earthquakes and volcanic unrest

   Driver

   active faults; Campi Flegrei uplift¹⁶

   Exposure

   about 40% of buildings in medium-high seismic zones¹³

   Vulnerability

   older building stock; dense settlement

   Capacity

   seismic monitoring; civil protection; evacuation plans

   Cascade

   GEO → INF, HLT, FIN

   Horizon

   any time

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 12ISTAT (ed.), Le statistiche dell’Istat sull’acqua, anni 2020–2023. ISTAT, Rome, March 2024.back
2. 24Autorità di bacino distrettuale del fiume Po (ed.), Osservatorio permanente sugli utilizzi idrici: bollettini di severità idrica 2022. AdBPo, Parma, 2022.back
3. 11ISPRA (ed.), Dissesto idrogeologico in Italia: pericolosità e indicatori di rischio, Edizione 2021, Rapporti 356/2021. ISPRA, Rome, 2021.back
4. 16INGV (ed.), Campi Flegrei: bollettini di sorveglianza 2024–2025. Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
5. 13ANIA (ed.), L’assicurazione italiana 2024–2025 and Relazione del Presidente all’Assemblea annuale. ANIA, Rome, July 2025.back
6. 25Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (ed.), National Risk Assessment: Overview of the Potential Major Disasters in Italy. DPC, Rome, 2018.back
7. 9Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Piano Nazionale di Adattamento ai Cambiamenti Climatici (PNACC). MASE, Rome, December 2023.back
8. 8Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Relazione sulla situazione energetica nazionale nel 2023. MASE, Rome, 2024.back
9. 15Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (ed.), Sequenza sismica del Centro Italia 2016–2017: bilancio e attività. DPC, Rome, 2017.back
10. 14Regione Emilia-Romagna (ed.), Alluvione di maggio 2023: rapporto sugli eventi e stima dei danni. Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, 2023.back
11. 10Parlamento (ed.), Legge 30 dicembre 2023, n. 213, art. 1, commi 101–111: obbligo di copertura assicurativa contro i rischi catastrofali per le imprese. Gazzetta Ufficiale, Rome, 2023.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-ITA-DFL-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

a dry winter with low Alpine snowpack; a hot summer with repeated heatwaves; intense autumn cloudbursts on dried, hardened soils

Analogues

the 2022 drought and heat⁴²⁴; the May 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods¹⁴

Interventions

none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   CLI → WAT

   low snowpack and heat cut the Po to record low flows

   2022²⁴

2. 2

   WAT → FOO

   irrigation cuts and heat reduce harvests

   2022²³

3. 3

   WAT → ENE

   hydro output falls; more gas generation

   2022¹

4. 4

   CLI → HLT

   heat deaths among older people rise

   2022⁴

5. 5

   CLI → BIO

   wildfires in the South and the islands

   2021²⁰

6. 6

   CLI → INF

   autumn cloudbursts on dried soils trigger floods and landslides

   2023¹⁴

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-ITA-DFL-01 would travel through Italy’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Italy 2026, scenario SCN-ITA-DFL-01 (2026); Italy 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 4J. Ballester, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022,” Nature Medicine, vol. 29, pp. 1857–1866, 2023.back
2. 24Autorità di bacino distrettuale del fiume Po (ed.), Osservatorio permanente sugli utilizzi idrici: bollettini di severità idrica 2022. AdBPo, Parma, 2022.back
3. 14Regione Emilia-Romagna (ed.), Alluvione di maggio 2023: rapporto sugli eventi e stima dei danni. Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, 2023.back
4. 23CREA (ed.), Annuario dell’agricoltura italiana 2022. CREA, Rome, 2023.back
5. 1ISPRA (ed.), Italian Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2024: National Inventory Document 2026. ISPRA, Rome, April 2026.back
6. 20J. San-Miguel-Ayanz et al. (eds.), Forest Fires in Europe, Middle East and North Africa 2021. Joint Research Centre, Ispra, 2022.back

6.1Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.2GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.3Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.4Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.5Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• PUBLISHED
• IN CONSULTATION

6.6Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers statutory assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in Q1 2027.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about Italy’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks and its geohazards?

Sources searched

peer-reviewed literature; statutory plans and assessments; official statistics; agency and insurance data

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 13ANIA (ed.), L’assicurazione italiana 2024–2025 and Relazione del Presidente all’Assemblea annuale. ANIA, Rome, July 2025.back
2. 10Parlamento (ed.), Legge 30 dicembre 2023, n. 213, art. 1, commi 101–111: obbligo di copertura assicurativa contro i rischi catastrofali per le imprese. Gazzetta Ufficiale, Rome, 2023.back
3. 3ISPRA (ed.), Le emissioni di gas serra in Italia: obiettivi di riduzione e scenari emissivi. ISPRA, Rome, 2026.back
4. 38European Parliament and Council of the European Union (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality (European Climate Law). Official Journal L 243, 9 July 2021.back
5. 40Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Piano Nazionale Integrato per l’Energia e il Clima (PNIEC), final version. MASE, Rome, June 2024.back
6. 9Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Piano Nazionale di Adattamento ai Cambiamenti Climatici (PNACC). MASE, Rome, December 2023.back
7. 25Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (ed.), National Risk Assessment: Overview of the Potential Major Disasters in Italy. DPC, Rome, 2018.back
8. 16INGV (ed.), Campi Flegrei: bollettini di sorveglianza 2024–2025. Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
9. 4J. Ballester, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022,” Nature Medicine, vol. 29, pp. 1857–1866, 2023.back
10. 5E. Gallo, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health,” Nature Medicine, vol. 30, pp. 3101–3105, 2024.back
11. 19K. Schneider, W. van der Werf, M. Cendoya et al., “Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117, pp. 9250–9259, 2020.back
12. 26A. Bondesan and R. G. Francese, “The climate-driven disaster of the Marmolada Glacier (Italy),” Geomorphology, vol. 431, 108687, 2023.back
13. 27H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.back
14. 28J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018.back
15. 30P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054back
16. 11ISPRA (ed.), Dissesto idrogeologico in Italia: pericolosità e indicatori di rischio, Edizione 2021, Rapporti 356/2021. ISPRA, Rome, 2021.back
17. 1ISPRA (ed.), Italian Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2024: National Inventory Document 2026. ISPRA, Rome, April 2026.back
18. 7Terna (ed.), Consumi elettrici in Italia nel 2024: dati provvisori. Terna, Rome, January 2025.back
19. 8Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Relazione sulla situazione energetica nazionale nel 2023. MASE, Rome, 2024.back
20. 21ISPRA and SNPA (eds.), Gli indicatori del clima in Italia nel 2024. ISPRA, Rome, 2025.back
21. 12ISTAT (ed.), Le statistiche dell’Istat sull’acqua, anni 2020–2023. ISTAT, Rome, March 2024.back
22. 6ISTAT (ed.), Indicatori demografici, anno 2024. ISTAT, Rome, March 2025.back
23. 24Autorità di bacino distrettuale del fiume Po (ed.), Osservatorio permanente sugli utilizzi idrici: bollettini di severità idrica 2022. AdBPo, Parma, 2022.back
24. 39EIOPA (ed.), Dashboard on insurance protection gap for natural catastrophes. EIOPA, Frankfurt, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
25. 15Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (ed.), Sequenza sismica del Centro Italia 2016–2017: bilancio e attività. DPC, Rome, 2017.back
26. 14Regione Emilia-Romagna (ed.), Alluvione di maggio 2023: rapporto sugli eventi e stima dei danni. Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, 2023.back
27. 20J. San-Miguel-Ayanz et al. (eds.), Forest Fires in Europe, Middle East and North Africa 2021. Joint Research Centre, Ispra, 2022.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. A-01

   How would a drought-to-flood year travel through agriculture, hydropower, health and slopes, a hot, dry summer on the Po followed by autumn cloudbursts on dried soils?

   INI-ITA-DFL-01 · drought-to-flood year; first output: dependency graph for the Po basin and Romagna.

2. A-02

   Which homes, schools and lifelines sit in high flood and landslide hazard areas, municipality by municipality?

   INI-ITA-HGR-02 · hydrogeological exposure; first output: exposure register by municipality.

3. A-03

   Where does the uninsured share of earthquake, flood and landslide losses land, and how would wider cover change it?

   INI-ITA-FIN-03 · protection gap and fiscal backstop; first output: loss-sharing table, 2009–2025.

4. A-04

   How prepared are the communities around the Campi Flegrei for a further escalation of unrest?

   INI-ITA-GEO-04 · seismic and volcanic readiness; first output: readiness note with evidence grades.

5. A-05

   What heat surge capacity exists for older people at home and in care in the largest cities?

   INI-ITA-HLT-05 · heat surge readiness; first output: surge baseline for five cities.

6. A-06

   How much drought resilience would cutting network losses and adding storage buy in the South and the islands?

   With GS-01 Water; first output: loss and storage note.

7. A-07

   How are Xylella, drought and wildfire changing olive groves and Mediterranean ecosystems?

   To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

   National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

Italy is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run from 2027, across the twenty regions. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

1. 01

   One National Agenda

   bounded national questions for the year

   DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

2. 02

   National Desk

   coordination, records, routing and continuity

   DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

3. 03

   National Model

   the country as a system of systems

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

4. 04

   National Portfolio

   risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

   7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

5. 05

   Foundry

   continuous computational environment

   PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-ITA-2027-Q1

6. 06

   Reports

   quarterly and annual publication

   BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

7. 07

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

8. 08

   Evidence and correction

   after-action, correction and renewal

   OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-ITA-2027-01 · drought-to-flood year

Role spine

Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• quarterly publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 14Regione Emilia-Romagna (ed.), Alluvione di maggio 2023: rapporto sugli eventi e stima dei danni. Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, 2023.back
2. 24Autorità di bacino distrettuale del fiume Po (ed.), Osservatorio permanente sugli utilizzi idrici: bollettini di severità idrica 2022. AdBPo, Parma, 2022.back
3. 16INGV (ed.), Campi Flegrei: bollettini di sorveglianza 2024–2025. Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
4. 13ANIA (ed.), L’assicurazione italiana 2024–2025 and Relazione del Presidente all’Assemblea annuale. ANIA, Rome, July 2025.back

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Italy’s water risk runs at both extremes, drought on the Po and in the South, floods and landslides on dried soils, while two-fifths of network supply is lost.

Related editions

• REG-EUR Europe
• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-04 Health
• GS-05 Finance
• GS-08 Disaster

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Italy replaced most Russian gas within two years and met 41.2% of electricity demand from renewables in 2024; hydro output still swings with drought.

Related editions

• REG-EUR Europe
• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-04 Health
• GS-05 Finance
• GS-08 Disaster

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Italy is one of the EU’s largest agricultural producers. Drought, heat and Xylella stress the most valuable crops.

Related editions

• REG-EUR Europe
• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-04 Health
• GS-05 Finance
• GS-08 Disaster

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Heat is Italy’s deadliest climate hazard, and an ageing population raises exposure year by year.

Related editions

• REG-EUR Europe
• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-04 Health
• GS-05 Finance
• GS-08 Disaster

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Italy holds some of Europe’s richest biodiversity. Wildfire, drought, pests and glacier loss are reshaping its ecosystems.

Related editions

• REG-EUR Europe
• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-04 Health
• GS-05 Finance
• GS-08 Disaster

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 12ISTAT (ed.), Le statistiche dell’Istat sull’acqua, anni 2020–2023. ISTAT, Rome, March 2024.back
2. 11ISPRA (ed.), Dissesto idrogeologico in Italia: pericolosità e indicatori di rischio, Edizione 2021, Rapporti 356/2021. ISPRA, Rome, 2021.back
3. 24Autorità di bacino distrettuale del fiume Po (ed.), Osservatorio permanente sugli utilizzi idrici: bollettini di severità idrica 2022. AdBPo, Parma, 2022.back
4. 14Regione Emilia-Romagna (ed.), Alluvione di maggio 2023: rapporto sugli eventi e stima dei danni. Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, 2023.back
5. 7Terna (ed.), Consumi elettrici in Italia nel 2024: dati provvisori. Terna, Rome, January 2025.back
6. 8Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Relazione sulla situazione energetica nazionale nel 2023. MASE, Rome, 2024.back
7. 1ISPRA (ed.), Italian Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2024: National Inventory Document 2026. ISPRA, Rome, April 2026.back
8. 22Eurostat (ed.), Economic accounts for agriculture: agricultural output by Member State, 2024. Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025.back
9. 23CREA (ed.), Annuario dell’agricoltura italiana 2022. CREA, Rome, 2023.back
10. 19K. Schneider, W. van der Werf, M. Cendoya et al., “Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117, pp. 9250–9259, 2020.back
11. 4J. Ballester, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022,” Nature Medicine, vol. 29, pp. 1857–1866, 2023.back
12. 5E. Gallo, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health,” Nature Medicine, vol. 30, pp. 3101–3105, 2024.back
13. 21ISPRA and SNPA (eds.), Gli indicatori del clima in Italia nel 2024. ISPRA, Rome, 2025.back
14. 15Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (ed.), Sequenza sismica del Centro Italia 2016–2017: bilancio e attività. DPC, Rome, 2017.back
15. 20J. San-Miguel-Ayanz et al. (eds.), Forest Fires in Europe, Middle East and North Africa 2021. Joint Research Centre, Ispra, 2022.back
16. 18ISPRA (ed.), Annuario dei dati ambientali 2024. ISPRA, Rome, 2025.back
17. 26A. Bondesan and R. G. Francese, “The climate-driven disaster of the Marmolada Glacier (Italy),” Geomorphology, vol. 431, 108687, 2023.back
18. 17Comitato Italiano IUCN and MASE (eds.), Liste Rosse Italiane. Rome, retrieved 2026-09-30.back

A.1Methods

The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, National Model v0

Model ID

MDL-ITA-NATIONAL · v0.1

Purpose

represent Italy as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing, geohazard and transmission layers

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

national scale; not for regional, municipal or asset-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.

Cut ID

NQ-ITA-2026-Q0-1

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

40 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

NQ-ITA-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

• Heat-mortality estimates⁴⁵, attribution method
• Insurance yearbook¹³, cover rates
• Water statistics¹², network losses
• Volcano bulletins¹⁶, monitoring method

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition, greenhouse-gas emissions

Construct

annual greenhouse-gas emissions in Italy, excluding land use

Unit

Mt CO₂e

Scope

national inventory perimeter

Source

ISPRA National Inventory Document 2026¹

Revision

back-revised each edition

Known limits

excludes emissions embodied in imports

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1ISPRA (ed.), Italian Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2024: National Inventory Document 2026. ISPRA, Rome, April 2026.back
2. 11ISPRA (ed.), Dissesto idrogeologico in Italia: pericolosità e indicatori di rischio, Edizione 2021, Rapporti 356/2021. ISPRA, Rome, 2021.back
3. 4J. Ballester, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022,” Nature Medicine, vol. 29, pp. 1857–1866, 2023.back
4. 5E. Gallo, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health,” Nature Medicine, vol. 30, pp. 3101–3105, 2024.back
5. 13ANIA (ed.), L’assicurazione italiana 2024–2025 and Relazione del Presidente all’Assemblea annuale. ANIA, Rome, July 2025.back
6. 12ISTAT (ed.), Le statistiche dell’Istat sull’acqua, anni 2020–2023. ISTAT, Rome, March 2024.back
7. 16INGV (ed.), Campi Flegrei: bollettini di sorveglianza 2024–2025. Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples, retrieved 2026-09-30.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2National source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• WAT
• ENE
• FOO
• HLT
• BIO
• CLI
• INF
• FIN
• TRD

B.3Regional reading, Italy by macro-region

Map plates for each region follow in Q2 2027. This page gives the regional reading in table form, and ranks no region.

B.4Atlas card, the Po basin and Romagna

• river basin
• irrigation district
• floodplain
• region

Systems in view

water, food, energy, health, infrastructure

Defining events

record low Po flows in summer 2022²⁴; May 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna, 17 deaths, about €8.5 billion¹⁴

Couplings

WAT → FOO irrigation; WAT → ENE hydro; CLI → INF floods on dried soils

Capability evidence

water-severity observatory and regional civil protection used in real events

Gaps

storage and allocation in drought; exposure of homes and lifelines

Agenda items

A-01 · A-02 · A-03

B.5Italy system card

The card through which Italy appears in the Europe regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Context

Archetype

high-income republic with high seismic, volcanic and hydrogeological exposure

Population

58.9 million (1 January 2025)⁶

Emissions

30% below 1990 (2024)¹

Electricity

41.2% of demand met by renewables (2024)⁷

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

NQ-ITA-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1ISPRA (ed.), Italian Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2024: National Inventory Document 2026. ISPRA, Rome, April 2026.back
2. 40Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Piano Nazionale Integrato per l’Energia e il Clima (PNIEC), final version. MASE, Rome, June 2024.back
3. 7Terna (ed.), Consumi elettrici in Italia nel 2024: dati provvisori. Terna, Rome, January 2025.back
4. 8Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Relazione sulla situazione energetica nazionale nel 2023. MASE, Rome, 2024.back
5. 4J. Ballester, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022,” Nature Medicine, vol. 29, pp. 1857–1866, 2023.back
6. 5E. Gallo, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health,” Nature Medicine, vol. 30, pp. 3101–3105, 2024.back
7. 14Regione Emilia-Romagna (ed.), Alluvione di maggio 2023: rapporto sugli eventi e stima dei danni. Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, 2023.back
8. 11ISPRA (ed.), Dissesto idrogeologico in Italia: pericolosità e indicatori di rischio, Edizione 2021, Rapporti 356/2021. ISPRA, Rome, 2021.back
9. 12ISTAT (ed.), Le statistiche dell’Istat sull’acqua, anni 2020–2023. ISTAT, Rome, March 2024.back
10. 13ANIA (ed.), L’assicurazione italiana 2024–2025 and Relazione del Presidente all’Assemblea annuale. ANIA, Rome, July 2025.back
11. 6ISTAT (ed.), Indicatori demografici, anno 2024. ISTAT, Rome, March 2025.back
12. 20J. San-Miguel-Ayanz et al. (eds.), Forest Fires in Europe, Middle East and North Africa 2021. Joint Research Centre, Ispra, 2022.back
13. 3ISPRA (ed.), Le emissioni di gas serra in Italia: obiettivi di riduzione e scenari emissivi. ISPRA, Rome, 2026.back
14. 16INGV (ed.), Campi Flegrei: bollettini di sorveglianza 2024–2025. Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
15. 21ISPRA and SNPA (eds.), Gli indicatori del clima in Italia nel 2024. ISPRA, Rome, 2025.back
16. 26A. Bondesan and R. G. Francese, “The climate-driven disaster of the Marmolada Glacier (Italy),” Geomorphology, vol. 431, 108687, 2023.back
17. 24Autorità di bacino distrettuale del fiume Po (ed.), Osservatorio permanente sugli utilizzi idrici: bollettini di severità idrica 2022. AdBPo, Parma, 2022.back
18. 15Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (ed.), Sequenza sismica del Centro Italia 2016–2017: bilancio e attività. DPC, Rome, 2017.back
19. 19K. Schneider, W. van der Werf, M. Cendoya et al., “Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117, pp. 9250–9259, 2020.back

C.140 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1ISPRA (ed.), Italian Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2024: National Inventory Document 2026. ISPRA, Rome, April 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
2. 2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.
3. 3ISPRA (ed.), Le emissioni di gas serra in Italia: obiettivi di riduzione e scenari emissivi. ISPRA, Rome, 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
4. 4J. Ballester, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022,” Nature Medicine, vol. 29, pp. 1857–1866, 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
5. 5E. Gallo, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health,” Nature Medicine, vol. 30, pp. 3101–3105, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
6. 6ISTAT (ed.), Indicatori demografici, anno 2024. ISTAT, Rome, March 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
7. 7Terna (ed.), Consumi elettrici in Italia nel 2024: dati provvisori. Terna, Rome, January 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
8. 8Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Relazione sulla situazione energetica nazionale nel 2023. MASE, Rome, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
9. 9Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Piano Nazionale di Adattamento ai Cambiamenti Climatici (PNACC). MASE, Rome, December 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
10. 10Parlamento (ed.), Legge 30 dicembre 2023, n. 213, art. 1, commi 101–111: obbligo di copertura assicurativa contro i rischi catastrofali per le imprese. Gazzetta Ufficiale, Rome, 2023. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
11. 11ISPRA (ed.), Dissesto idrogeologico in Italia: pericolosità e indicatori di rischio, Edizione 2021, Rapporti 356/2021. ISPRA, Rome, 2021. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
12. 12ISTAT (ed.), Le statistiche dell’Istat sull’acqua, anni 2020–2023. ISTAT, Rome, March 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
13. 13ANIA (ed.), L’assicurazione italiana 2024–2025 and Relazione del Presidente all’Assemblea annuale. ANIA, Rome, July 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7
14. 14Regione Emilia-Romagna (ed.), Alluvione di maggio 2023: rapporto sugli eventi e stima dei danni. Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
15. 15Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (ed.), Sequenza sismica del Centro Italia 2016–2017: bilancio e attività. DPC, Rome, 2017. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
16. 16INGV (ed.), Campi Flegrei: bollettini di sorveglianza 2024–2025. Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7
17. 17Comitato Italiano IUCN and MASE (eds.), Liste Rosse Italiane. Rome, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in chapter 8
18. 18ISPRA (ed.), Annuario dei dati ambientali 2024. ISPRA, Rome, 2025. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
19. 19K. Schneider, W. van der Werf, M. Cendoya et al., “Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117, pp. 9250–9259, 2020. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
20. 20J. San-Miguel-Ayanz et al. (eds.), Forest Fires in Europe, Middle East and North Africa 2021. Joint Research Centre, Ispra, 2022. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
21. 21ISPRA and SNPA (eds.), Gli indicatori del clima in Italia nel 2024. ISPRA, Rome, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
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31. 31WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. WMO, Geneva, March 2026.
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