Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

9 min read0 figures12 tables7 notesNR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE

Contents

A.1Methods

The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.	Derivation	Calculation	Result
(1)	Change in emissions, 2023 to 2024	363 ÷ 377 − 1	≈ −3.6%
(2)	1990 emissions implied by a 30.2% fall	363 ÷ 0.698	≈ 520 Mt
(3)	Water delivered from each 100 litres fed into networks	100 − 42.4	≈ 58 litres
(4)	Homes without earthquake and flood cover	100 − 7.3	≈ 93%

Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
Strength	Definition
STRONG	a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season
MODERATE	an effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAK	an effect is plausible but not documented at national scale

Table A.3Status grammar
Label	Rule
Reported	value as issued by its source, with year
Inferred	reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
Estimated	Nexus analytical value with stated method
Scenario	conditional on stated assumptions
Expert input	structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card, National Model v0

Model ID: MDL-ITA-NATIONAL · v0.1
Purpose: represent Italy as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing, geohazard and transmission layers
Family: graph-based system of systems
Inputs: the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method: expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events
Validation: none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence
Uncertainty: qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity: national scale; not for regional, municipal or asset-level use
Reproducibility: strength table and sources published in this edition

20couplings

typed in v0

9strong

documented within one season

7moderate

documented, buffered

4weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.

Cut ID: NQ-ITA-2026-Q0-1
Type: baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy: pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned: 40 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references
Model runs: none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest: computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes: nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by: NQ-ITA-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

01
source edition
02
pinned citation
03
finding
04
page
05
publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the first Foundry cut
Element	Baseline 2026	Q1 2027
Sources	cited publications, pinned by edition	qualified source bindings with versions
Analysis	stated methods and editorial estimates	typed analysis specifications
Models	National Model v0 specification	model runs with receipts
Findings	twelve baseline findings	findings re-bound to the cut
Review	five passes scheduled	five passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
Indicator	Observed	Released	Cadence	Next release
Greenhouse-gas emissions	2024	Apr 2026	annual	Apr 2027
Warmest year on record	2024	2025	annual	annual
Heat-related deaths	2022 · 2023	2023 · 2024	annual	new estimates
Renewable share of demand	2024	Jan 2025	annual	annual
Water network losses	2022	Mar 2024	periodic	next census
Hydrogeological exposure	2021	2021	three-yearly	2024 edition
Natural-catastrophe cover	2025	Jul 2025	annual	annual
Emilia-Romagna flood damage	2023	2023	one-off	,
Population	1 Jan 2025	Mar 2025	annual	annual
Burned area	2021	2022	annual	annual

Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
System	Coverage	Thinnest dimension
Climate forcing	GOOD	local cloudburst extremes
Energy	GOOD	hydro exposure in dry years
Water	GOOD	storage and losses by region
Food	PARTIAL	drought losses by region
Health	GOOD	surge capacity
Biodiversity	PARTIAL	ecosystem condition
Geohazards	GOOD	building vulnerability
Digital and cyber	THIN	dependency mapping

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Issued by ISPRA under the UNFCCC and EU governance rules. Coverage 1990–2024, with sector detail and projections. Role: binds CLI-001 and CLI-002.

EVD-ITA-001

National Inventory Document 2026¹

Issued by ISPRA from national mosaics of landslide and flood hazard, combined with census data. Role: binds WAT-007 and the hydrogeological risk object.

EVD-ITA-002

Hydrogeological hazard and risk report¹¹

Table A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
Dimension	EVD-CAN-001	EVD-CAN-002
Completeness	all sectors and gases	national hazard mosaics
Timeliness	about 16 months after the year	updated about every three years
Revision	annual back-revision	mosaics updated by basin authorities
Method transparency	methods published	methods published
External validation	UNFCCC and EU review	basin authority plans

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

Heat-mortality estimates⁴⁵, attribution method
Insurance yearbook¹³, cover rates
Water statistics¹², network losses
Volcano bulletins¹⁶, monitoring method

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.8Publication acceptance record
Group	Area	Items	Pass	N/A	Pending
D1	Identity and scope	8	8	0	0
D2	Source and data	12	9	1	2
D3	Analysis and models	12	3	8	1
D4	Findings and claims	9	8	0	1
D5	Figures, tables, maps	10	6	2	2
D6	Editorial and citations	10	8	0	2
D7	Review and approval	13	0	0	13
D8	Artefact and design	12	7	0	5
D9	Registry and release	9	0	0	9

Publication gate

Conditions met: 14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems: none recorded
Open conditions: reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs: first runs in Q1 2027
Maps: plates in Q2 2027
Waivers: none

A.7Status words

Table A.9The status every value carries
Status	What it means
Observed	Measured directly and published by the source.
Reported	Published statistics of an official or institutional source.
Declared	Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
Estimated	A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
Modelled	Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.
Inferred	Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
Forecast	A projection by the cited source.
Simulated	A simulation result under stated assumptions.
Scenario	A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert input	Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.
Candidate	Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Evidence arrives from the pillars	Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealed	On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembled	The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turn	At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opens	A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and deposited	The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on five sites	Only then do the five Reports sites show the edition as published, each reading it through its own lens.
08 Corrections go to Standards	Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.10Series terms
Term	Meaning
Baseline Edition	the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+B	water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Coupling	a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gap	the share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladder	LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQL	evidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cut	a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWG	National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups

Table A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
Abbreviation	Expansion
AdBPo	Po river basin district authority
ANIA	Italian national association of insurers
CREA	Council for agricultural research and economics
DPC	Civil Protection Department
EIOPA	European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority
INGV	National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology
ISPRA	Institute for Environmental Protection and Research
ISTAT	National Institute of Statistics
MASE	Ministry of the Environment and Energy Security
NTC	technical standards for construction, including seismic design
PNACC	national climate adaptation plan
PNIEC	national energy and climate plan
SNPA	national system for environmental protection
Terna	electricity transmission system operator

A.10Technical annex

Table A.12Technical annex
Item	Annex	Contents	Status
A.1	Indicator definitions	the baseline indicator set, with units and sources	IN THIS EDITION
A.2	Coupling strengths	the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale	IN THIS EDITION
A.3	Scenario specification	SCN-ITA-DFL-01 assumptions and signposts	IN THIS EDITION
A.4	Capability placements	rung evidence for fifteen functions	IN THIS EDITION
A.5	Model diagnostics	first runs and validation	Q1 2027
A.6	Sensitivity analyses	influence of coupling strengths	Q2 2027
A.7	Regional notes	atlas cards for the twenty regions	Q2 2027
A.8	Review statements	pass-by-pass review record	AT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition, greenhouse-gas emissions

Construct: annual greenhouse-gas emissions in Italy, excluding land use
Unit: Mt CO₂e
Scope: national inventory perimeter
Source: ISPRA National Inventory Document 2026¹
Revision: back-revised each edition
Known limits: excludes emissions embodied in imports

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1ISPRA (ed.), Italian Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2024: National Inventory Document 2026. ISPRA, Rome, April 2026.back
11ISPRA (ed.), Dissesto idrogeologico in Italia: pericolosità e indicatori di rischio, Edizione 2021, Rapporti 356/2021. ISPRA, Rome, 2021.back
4J. Ballester, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022,” Nature Medicine, vol. 29, pp. 1857–1866, 2023.back
5E. Gallo, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health,” Nature Medicine, vol. 30, pp. 3101–3105, 2024.back
13ANIA (ed.), L’assicurazione italiana 2024–2025 and Relazione del Presidente all’Assemblea annuale. ANIA, Rome, July 2025.back
12ISTAT (ed.), Le statistiche dell’Istat sull’acqua, anni 2020–2023. ISTAT, Rome, March 2024.back
16INGV (ed.), Campi Flegrei: bollettini di sorveglianza 2024–2025. Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples, retrieved 2026-09-30.back

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex A: Methodology. In Italy Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Italy’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report