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Nexus Reports · The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation · Baseline Edition 2026
Nexus Country Systems Risk & Resilience Report
The state of Italy’s interdependent systems, water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, and the national risk portfolio at the 2026 baseline
The record
About this edition
The first annual edition of the Italy report. It fixes the 2026 reference state, the model, the voice and the positions against which every quarterly edition from Q1 2027 will be measured.
What this edition is
A baseline: the state of Italy’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies between them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets the questions the operational series will answer.
What it is not
Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any ministry, region, municipality, operator or company. Competent authorities at national, regional and local level keep every mandate they hold.
What comes next
Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.
Abstract and decision surface
Abstract
Italy enters 2027 having cut its greenhouse-gas emissions to 363 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 3.6% below 2023 and 30% below 1990, but with transport emissions still above their 1990 level and the 2030 effort-sharing target out of reach on current policies [1] [3]. Renewables met 41.2% of electricity demand in 2024 [7], and Russian gas fell from about 40% of imports in 2021 to under 5% by 2023 [8]. 2024 was the warmest year in the national record [21]; Italy recorded 18,010 heat-related deaths in the summer of 2022, more than any other European country [4]. About 94% of municipalities are exposed to landslides, floods or coastal erosion [11]; the May 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna caused damage of about €8.5 billion [14]; and 40% of buildings stand in zones of medium to high seismic hazard, yet only 7.3% of homes are insured against earthquake and flood [13]. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for the five core systems, maps the dependencies through which shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer in Q1 2027. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.
Headline finding
Italy recorded 18,010 heat-related deaths in the summer of 2022, the highest number of any European country, and a further 12,743 in 2023.
Implication
Heat falls hardest on older people, and Italy has one of the oldest populations in Europe. Heat is therefore as much a question of care, housing and isolation as of meteorology, and it coincides with drought and peak power demand [4] [6].
At a glance
Six readings that frame the baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
Where do emissions stand?
363 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 30% below 1990, but transport keeps rising and the 2030 effort-sharing target is off track. [1] [3]
REPORTED
Is the climate already changing?
2024 was the warmest year in the Italian record; the national adaptation plan was approved in December 2023. [21] [9]
REPORTED
Who is most exposed to heat?
Italy recorded 18,010 heat-related deaths in summer 2022 and 12,743 in 2023, mostly among older people. [4] [5]
REPORTED
How exposed is the territory?
About 94% of municipalities face landslide, flood or erosion hazard; 6.8 million people live in medium flood-hazard areas. [11]
REPORTED
Who carries disaster losses?
Only 7.3% of homes are insured against earthquake and flood; the State has acted as insurer of last resort. [13]
REPORTED
How did energy cope with 2022?
Russian gas fell from about 40% of imports to under 5%; renewables met 41.2% of demand in 2024. [7] [8]
REPORTED
How secure is water supply?
42.4% of the water fed into municipal networks was lost in 2022. [12]
REPORTED
What will Q1 2027 test first?
A drought-to-flood year: a hot, dry summer on the Po followed by autumn cloudbursts on dried soils. SCN-ITA-DFL-01
EXPERT INPUT
Systems dashboard
WATWater
Water lost in municipal distribution networks
42.4%
of the water fed into networks, one of the highest loss rates in the EU.
REPORTED2022ISTAT [12]
ENEEnergy
Renewable share of electricity demand
41.2%
Russian gas fell from about 40% of imports in 2021 to under 5% by 2023.
FOOFood
Share of EU agricultural output
≈14%
among the largest producers in the EU.
REPORTED2024Eurostat [22]
HLTHealth
Heat-related deaths, summer
18,010deaths
the highest number of any European country in 2022.
REPORTED2022Ballester et al. [4]
BIOBiodiversity
Area burned by wildfire
≈160khectares
in 2021, concentrated in Sicily, Sardinia and Calabria.
REPORTED2021JRC [20]
SYSCross-system
Homes insured against earthquake and flood
7.3%
while 94% of municipalities face hydrogeological hazard.
Place · Italy
A live context map of satellite and model layers for the territory. Context for the findings, never a value the edition asserts; where the layers cannot load, the base map and its note stay.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Hazards and exposure
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Flood water, active fires and surface heat beside population and night-time lights, framed on Italy.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.
Layers and dates
Static base: the live map shows here when its map library and satellite tiles can load. Natural Earth land at 110m with the editions marked; filled marks are drafted editions, rings are editions in preparation.
Key findings
Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.
CLIClimate forcing
HLTHealth
WATWater
The May 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna killed 17 people and caused damage of about €8.5 billion. [14]
About 94% of municipalities are exposed to landslides, floods or coastal erosion; 6.8 million people live in medium flood-hazard areas and 1.3 million in high landslide-hazard areas. [11]
42.4% of the water fed into municipal networks was lost in 2022. [12]
ENEEnergy
GEOGeopolitics
FINFinance
SYSSystemic
The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a drought-to-flood year: a hot, dry summer on the Po followed by autumn cloudbursts on dried soils. §9.3
Part I · lead chapter
Italy’s hazards are usually counted one at a time: an earthquake, a flood, a heatwave, a drought. This baseline reads them as one coupled system. In 2022 the Po fell to its lowest summer flows in about seventy years [24], the Marmolada glacier collapsed in the heat and killed eleven people [26], and Italy recorded 18,010 heat-related deaths, more than any other European country [4]. In May 2023 the rain returned on dried soils: floods in Emilia-Romagna killed 17 people and caused damage of about €8.5 billion [14].
The forcing is measurable. 2024 was the warmest year in the national record [21], and heat caused a further 12,743 deaths in 2023 [5]. A national adaptation plan was approved in December 2023 [9]. About 94% of municipalities are exposed to landslides, floods or coastal erosion; 6.8 million people live in areas of medium flood hazard and 1.3 million in areas of high landslide hazard [11].
The ground itself is a hazard. About 40% of buildings stand in zones of medium to high seismic hazard [13]; the earthquake of 24 August 2016 in central Italy killed 299 people [15]; and unrest at the Campi Flegrei, beneath a densely populated area west of Naples, produced earthquakes of magnitude 4.4 in May 2024 and 4.6 in March 2025 [16].
Water and energy couple drought to the economy. In dry summers the same rivers supply irrigation, hydropower and cities, while 42.4% of the water fed into municipal networks was lost in 2022 [12]. Renewables met 41.2% of electricity demand in 2024 [7], and Russian gas fell from about 40% of imports in 2021 to under 5% by 2023 [8]. Emissions fell to 363 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 30% below 1990, but transport is still above its 1990 level [1].
Losses fall mostly outside insurance. Only 7.3% of homes are insured against earthquake and flood [13]; recovery has relied on the State as insurer of last resort. Since 2025 businesses must insure against natural catastrophes, but about 16% were compliant a year after the mandate began [10] [13].
This edition therefore treats Italian risk as a property of couplings, between heat, rivers, slopes, faults, networks and health, rather than a list of separate hazards. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask where a shock travels next and who holds the capability to stop it.
Transport is the largest source and the only major sector still above its 1990 level; more than 90% of it is road transport. Energy production has cut its emissions most since 1990 [1].
Dependency network
The Italy matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
Select a system
Each line is one coupling, weighted by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.
| WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT Water | · | STRONGnuclear cooling · hydro | STRONGirrigation · rain-fed yield | MODERATEdrinking water | STRONGflows · wetlands |
| ENE Energy | MODERATEpumping · treatment | · | STRONGfuel · fertiliser · cold chain | STRONGfacility power · cooling | MODERATEreservoirs · land use |
| FOO Food | MODERATEwithdrawals · nutrients | WEAKbiofuel feedstock | · | STRONGnutrition · food safety | STRONGland conversion |
| HLT Health | WEAKworkforce | WEAKworkforce | MODERATElabour · disease | · | WEAKresidues |
| BIO Biodiversity | STRONGregulation · filtration | MODERATEfire on lines · biomass | STRONGpollination · soils | MODERATEzoonoses · smoke | · |
Transmission paths
Reinforcing loops · both directions rated strong
A shock entering either system of a loop returns amplified through the other. A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.
Domain posture
Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.
| Domain | Posture at baseline | Coupling | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | Network losses of 42.4%; drought on the Po in 2022; floods on dried soils in 2023. | WAT → FOO · WAT → ENE | REPORTEDEQL 4 |
| ENE | Renewables met 41.2% of demand in 2024; Russian gas replaced after 2022. | ENE ← WAT · ENE → HLT | REPORTEDEQL 4 |
| FOO | A leading EU producer; drought and Xylella stress the South. | FOO ← WAT, BIO | REPORTEDEQL 3 |
| HLT | 18,010 heat deaths in 2022; one of Europe’s oldest populations. | HLT ← CLI, ENE | REPORTEDEQL 4 |
| BIO | Rich biodiversity; about a fifth of land in Natura 2000; wildfire in the South and islands. | BIO → WAT, FOO | REPORTEDEQL 3 |
| CLI | 2024 the warmest year on record; Alpine glaciers retreating. | forcing on all five systems | REPORTEDEQL 5 |
| INF | Roads, rail and buildings exposed to landslides, floods and earthquakes. | INF ← CLI, GEO | REPORTEDEQL 4 |
| FIN | Only 7.3% of homes insured against earthquake and flood. | FIN ← CLI, GEO · FIN → households, State | REPORTEDEQL 4 |
| DAT | Data-centre growth around Milan adds grid demand. | DAT ← ENE | INFERREDEQL 2 |
| AIC | Compute growth not yet consolidated in national statistics. | AIC → ENE | EXPERT INPUTEQL 2 |
| MIN | Manufacturing depends on imported raw materials and energy. | MIN → industry | INFERREDEQL 3 |
| TRD | Export-led manufacturing and agri-food exposed to energy and freight shocks. | TRD ↔ ENE, FOO | INFERREDEQL 3 |
Sector screens
All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.
| Code | Sector | Baseline evidence | Exposure to watch | Evidence coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS-00 | Cross-system | coupled drought, heat and floods [4] [14] [24] | drought-to-flood years | PARTIAL |
| GS-01 | Water | 42.4% network losses [12] | drought; floods | GOOD |
| GS-02 | Energy | 41.2% renewables in demand [7] | hydro in dry years; gas supply | GOOD |
| GS-03 | Food | ≈14% of EU output [22] | drought; Xylella | PARTIAL |
| GS-04 | Health | 18,010 heat deaths, 2022 [4] | heat among older people | GOOD |
| GS-05 | Finance | 7.3% of homes insured [13] | uninsured disaster losses | GOOD |
| GS-06 | Development | gaps between North and South | services after disasters | THIN |
| GS-07 | Climate | warmest year 2024 [21] | heat, drought, cloudbursts | GOOD |
| GS-08 | Disaster | 2016 earthquake; 2023 floods [14] [15] | earthquakes; floods; landslides | GOOD |
| GS-09 | Infrastructure | networks on unstable slopes [11] | landslides; seismic damage | PARTIAL |
| GS-10 | Cities | urban heat; flash floods | heat in dense cities | PARTIAL |
| GS-11 | Biodiversity | about a fifth of land in Natura 2000 [18] | wildfire; Xylella | PARTIAL |
| GS-12 | Earth observation | strong seismic and volcanic monitoring [16] | data integration | GOOD |
| GS-13 | Cyber and digital | data-centre growth | outages and attacks | THIN |
| GS-14 | Policy | adaptation plan; insurance mandate [9] [10] | implementation | GOOD |
| GS-15 | Science | strong geoscience base | translation into operations | THIN |
Risk portfolio
Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.
Capability ladder
Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.
Ladder: LISTED, EXISTS, DEMONSTRATED, TESTED. A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.
Scenario · SCN-ITA-DFL-01
A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.
Assumptions
Cascade, step by step
How the shock in scenario SCN-ITA-DFL-01 would travel through Italy's coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.
Low snowpack and heat cut the Po to record low flows. Analogue or source: 2022 [24]. Edition ITA, scenario SCN-ITA-DFL-01, step 1
The cascade of scenario SCN-ITA-DFL-01 as a playable chain of couplings, one step at a time.
A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition's stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning.
Sources: Italy 2026, scenario SCN-ITA-DFL-01 (2026); Italy 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).
Three lenses
The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.
GCRI · KEY T
The evidence supports a coupled reading of Italian risk. Heat, drought, cloudbursts, landslides and earthquakes are already recorded, and their losses fall mostly outside insurance. Evidence is strongest for emissions, heat mortality and hydrogeological exposure, and weakest for cross-system dependencies.
CLI-001 · HLT-004 · WAT-007 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
For most people risk arrives as a heatwave, a flooded street or a crack after an earthquake. The baseline asks that these be read as one system, and that public debate weigh who carries the losses when fewer than one home in ten is insured.
HLT-004 · FIN-011 · GEO-010
GRA · KEY F
Readiness implications only. Very low insurance take-up [13], a new business insurance mandate [10] and an effort-sharing gap [3] show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.
FIN-011 · CLI-002
NEXUS
Italy observes its hazards well, its seismic and volcanic monitoring is among the strongest anywhere, but its territory, buildings and networks carry deep exposure that is mostly uninsured. The 2027 programme should test the drought-to-flood year, map hydrogeological exposure and measure who carries the losses.
SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02 · A-03
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation reading
2027 agenda
Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.
How would a drought-to-flood year travel through agriculture, hydropower, health and slopes, a hot, dry summer on the Po followed by autumn cloudbursts on dried soils?
Which homes, schools and lifelines sit in high flood and landslide hazard areas, municipality by municipality?
Where does the uninsured share of earthquake, flood and landslide losses land, and how would wider cover change it?
How prepared are the communities around the Campi Flegrei for a further escalation of unrest?
What heat surge capacity exists for older people at home and in care in the largest cities?
How much drought resilience would cutting network losses and adding storage buy in the South and the islands?
How are Xylella, drought and wildfire changing olive groves and Mediterranean ecosystems?
Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?
Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.
| ID | Object | Kind | Question | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INI-ITA-DFL-01 | Drought-to-flood year dependency model | Initiative | A-01 | PROPOSED |
| INI-ITA-HGR-02 | Hydrogeological exposure register | Initiative | A-02 | PROPOSED |
| INI-ITA-FIN-03 | Protection gap and fiscal backstop | Initiative | A-03 | PROPOSED |
| INI-ITA-GEO-04 | Seismic and volcanic readiness | Initiative | A-04 | PROPOSED |
| INI-ITA-HLT-05 | Heat surge readiness | Initiative | A-05 | PROPOSED |
| MSN-ITA-2027-01 | Drought-to-flood year Universe mission | Mission | A-01 | CANDIDATE |
The pathway
Nexus Italy is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run from 2027, across the twenty regions. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.
One National Agenda
bounded national questions for the year
National Desk
coordination, records, routing and continuity
National Model
the country as a system of systems
National Portfolio
risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions
Nexus Foundry
continuous computational environment
Nexus Reports
quarterly and annual publication
Nexus Universe
annual proving environment
Evidence and correction
after-action, correction and renewal
System chapter
Italy’s water risk runs at both extremes, drought on the Po and in the South, floods and landslides on dried soils, while two-fifths of network supply is lost.
State at baseline
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Losses | 42.4% of water fed into networks lost | [12] | REPORTED |
| Drought | Po at its lowest summer flows in about seventy years in 2022 | [24] | REPORTED |
| Floods | Emilia-Romagna, May 2023: 17 deaths, about €8.5 billion | [14] | REPORTED |
| Exposure | 6.8 million residents in medium flood-hazard areas | [11] | REPORTED |
Couplings into other systems
Evidence to bind in 2027
System chapter
Italy replaced most Russian gas within two years and met 41.2% of electricity demand from renewables in 2024; hydro output still swings with drought.
State at baseline
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Renewables | 41.2% of electricity demand in 2024 | [7] | REPORTED |
| Gas | Russian share cut from about 40% to under 5% | [8] | REPORTED |
| Hydro | output falls in drought years | [1] [24] | INFERRED |
| Emissions | 363 Mt CO₂e in 2024 | [1] | REPORTED |
Couplings into other systems
Evidence to bind in 2027
System chapter
Italy is one of the EU’s largest agricultural producers. Drought, heat and Xylella stress the most valuable crops.
State at baseline
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Production | among the EU’s largest producers | [22] | REPORTED |
| Drought | harvest losses in 2022 | [23] | REPORTED |
| Pests | Xylella fastidiosa in Apulian olive groves | [19] | REPORTED |
| Water | irrigation depends on Po and southern reservoirs | [24] | REPORTED |
Couplings into other systems
Evidence to bind in 2027
System chapter
Heat is Italy’s deadliest climate hazard, and an ageing population raises exposure year by year.
State at baseline
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heat 2022 | 18,010 heat-related deaths | [4] | REPORTED |
| Heat 2023 | 12,743 heat-related deaths | [5] | REPORTED |
| Disasters | deaths and injuries in earthquakes and floods | [14] [15] | REPORTED |
| Surge capacity | not consolidated nationally | , | EXPERT INPUT |
Couplings into other systems
Evidence to bind in 2027
System chapter
Italy holds some of Europe’s richest biodiversity. Wildfire, drought, pests and glacier loss are reshaping its ecosystems.
State at baseline
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | about 160,000 ha burned in 2021 | [20] | REPORTED |
| Protection | about a fifth of land in Natura 2000 | [18] | REPORTED |
| Pests | Xylella in olive groves | [19] | REPORTED |
| Glaciers | Marmolada collapse, 11 deaths, July 2022 | [26] | REPORTED |
Couplings into other systems
Evidence to bind in 2027
Process
Press play to run the release step by step in the five pillar lanes; select a step to read it.
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
Nexus Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Nexus Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site's.
The quarterly release in the five pillar lanes: what Foundry and Universe hand to Reports, what Reports seals, reviews, signs, deposits and publishes, and what returns to Standards.
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record.
Sources: Nexus Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Nexus Reports deposits (2026).
How a contribution reaches this edition, step by step, is on the contribute page and the front page of this site. Contribute
Open science
Identifiers, licences and the bundle at deposit; credit by ORCID, ROR and CRediT; the open indexes; and a deposit prefilled for a contribution to this edition.
Search the open indexes for Italy; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.
The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.
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What is on this site now, what ships with the signed bundle at release, and what is not recorded for this edition; then the chain the outputs come from and how to cite each one.
| Format | State | What it is | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Web editionHTML | On this site | Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source. | NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| Print editionPDF | At release | A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release. | NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| Indicator dataCSV · JSON | On this site | 16 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release. | NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE data release v1 |
| FiguresSVG · PNG | On this site | 4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder. | FIG-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-* |
| SlidesPDF | Not recorded | No slide deck is recorded for this edition. | |
| Evidence briefHTML · PDF | Not recorded | No evidence brief is recorded for this edition. | |
| Dataset with DOIDataCite | At release | Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet. |
Provenance
Cite it
Indicator data
| Indicator | Value | Unit | Year | State | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greenhouse-gas emissions | 363 | Mt CO₂e | 2024 | REPORTED | [1] |
| Change since 1990 | −30.2 | % | 2024 | REPORTED | [1] |
| Transport share of emissions | 31.2 | % | 2024 | REPORTED | [1] |
| 2030 effort-sharing target | −43.7 | % vs 2005 | 2030 | REPORTED | [40] |
| Renewable share of electricity demand | 41.2 | % | 2024 | REPORTED | [7] |
| Russian share of gas imports | <5 | % | 2023 | REPORTED | [8] |
| Heat-related deaths | 18,010 | deaths | 2022 | REPORTED | [4] |
| Heat-related deaths | 12,743 | deaths | 2023 | REPORTED | [5] |
| Emilia-Romagna flood deaths | 17 | deaths | 2023 | REPORTED | [14] |
| Emilia-Romagna flood damage | ≈8.5 | € billion | 2023 | REPORTED | [14] |
| Municipalities exposed to hydrogeological hazard | ≈94 | % | 2021 | REPORTED | [11] |
| Residents in medium flood-hazard areas | 6.8 | million | 2021 | REPORTED | [11] |
| Water lost in networks | 42.4 | % | 2022 | REPORTED | [12] |
| Homes insured against earthquake and flood | 7.3 | % | 2025 | REPORTED | [13] |
| Population | 58.9 | million | 1 Jan 2025 | REPORTED | [6] |
| Area burned | ≈160,000 | hectares | 2021 | REPORTED | [20] |
Six pillars
Nexus Foundry seals the evidence and Nexus Universe tests it; Nexus Reports publishes it; Nexus Standards takes its corrections and Risk Academy teaches from it.
| Handoff | Between | What crosses, and when |
|---|---|---|
| F03 | Nexus Foundry to Nexus Reports | Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout). |
| F04 | Nexus Universe to Nexus Reports | After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review). |
| F05 | Nexus Foundry to Nexus Reports | National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review). |
| Ring | Nexus Standards to Nexus Reports | Nexus Standards: applied in editions. |
| F06 | Nexus Reports to Nexus Standards | Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction). |
| F12 | Nexus Reports to Nexus Universe | Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal). |
| Ring | Nexus Reports to Risk Academy | Risk Academy: taught in the open. |
Corrections log
A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.
0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition's current version.
| Edition | Version | Date | State | Change | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITA | NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | Draft | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition | None |
Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.
References · NR-CIT-1
Publication record
Publication
Publisher
Colophon
Release path for this version
Release path for this version
| Step | What happens | When |
|---|---|---|
| Draft | editorial self-check complete at evidence close | October 2026 |
| Steward review | five passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N) | Q4 2026 |
| Approval | publication authority approves the exact digest | before release |
| Deposit | concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set | at release |
| Succession | the Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baseline | Q1 2027 |