Lenses and readings

The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.

10 min read0 figures6 tables37 notesNR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents

6.1Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports an entangled reading of global risk. Warming and losses set records in the same years; frequency, not one peak event, drives losses; and the five core systems share dependence on water, energy and land. Evidence is strongest for climate and losses, and weakest for digital dependencies and tipping proximity.

CLI-001 · FIN-002 · CLI-010 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people global risk arrives as a price rise, a heat wave or a flood, and its burden depends on where they live. The baseline asks that public debate weigh the couplings and the distribution of losses, not a list of separate threats.

FIN-003 · FOO-006 · HLT-008

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. About half of disaster losses are uninsured, debt service crowds out adaptation, and climate disclosure standards are spreading³³. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.

FIN-002 · FIN-003 · FIN-011

NEXUS

Synthesis

The world’s crises share causes and channels. The 2027 programme should test the mechanisms rather than list the crises: bind the common causes, trace the dominoes through fiscal and food channels, and measure the feedbacks that make recovery slower than the next shock.

SYS-012 · P-01 · P-02

6.2GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.3Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

In 2025 no major hurricane reached the United States mainland, and insured losses still passed US$100 billion for the sixth year running. Floods, hail, storms and wildfires, individually “medium”, now add up to totals that once required a single great catastrophe. Global resilience has to be measured against many events in close succession, not one event of record size.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

Medium events are the new catastrophe

About half of 2025’s disaster losses were uninsured, and almost nine-tenths in Asia. Where cover is thin, a flood becomes household debt and a fiscal shock, and recovery competes with interest payments. Closing the gap is less a question of insurance products than of fiscal space, data and risk reduction.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

The protection gap is a development gap

Data centres used about 415 TWh of electricity in 2024, and refining of the minerals behind batteries and chips is concentrated in very few places. The digital transition is also an energy, water and minerals transition, and its risks sit in substations, cooling towers and refineries as much as in software.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

Frontier technology is physical

A small number of regions grow most of the world’s traded grain. A season in which several of them fail together, more likely as the world warms, would travel through prices to every import-dependent household. The world tracks harvests one country at a time; the risk lives in their concurrence.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

Breadbaskets are a shared exposure

6.4Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 polycrisis readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.12027 polycrisis readiness pack
Item	Register	State at baseline	First 2027 entry
E1	Global risk state delta	baseline set by this edition	changes against the baseline
E2	WEFH+B state delta	five global system readings set	indicator updates and freshness
E3	Agenda and Portfolio movement	eight agenda items · seven proposed objects	admission decisions
E4	Federation delivery register	Canada issued; 85 editions in programme	regional and sector baselines
E5	Consortium capability register	national consortia forming	first contributions
E6	Leadership questions and challenges	none yet	first challenge log
E7	Foundry technical state	national environments prepared	first federation cut
E8	Publication candidates	twelve findings carried forward	PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9	Universe readiness	one candidate mission	admission and role spine
E10	Correction register	none	first federation-wide cycle

Publication dispositions

Publish
Hold
Needs evidence
Restricted
Superseded

6.5Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

International instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

IN FORCE
ADOPTED
ADOPTED · OPEN FOR SIGNATURE
PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

Table 6.2Standards and regulatory watch
Instrument	Body	Scope	Status	Relevance
Paris Agreement²⁹	UNFCCC	global	IN FORCE	emissions, adaptation
Kunming-Montreal Framework³⁰	CBD	global	ADOPTED 2022	30% by 2030
Sendai Framework 2015–2030³¹	UNDRR	global	ADOPTED 2015	disaster risk reduction
High Seas (BBNJ) Agreement³²	United Nations	ocean beyond national jurisdiction	ADOPTED 2023	marine biodiversity
International Health Regulations, 2024 amendments²⁸	WHO	global	ADOPTED 2024	pandemic preparedness
WHO Pandemic Agreement²⁷	WHO	global	ADOPTED · OPEN FOR SIGNATURE	prevention, access
IFRS S1 and S2³³	ISSB	jurisdictions adopting	PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY	climate disclosure
Regulation (EU) 2024/1689³⁴	EU	European Union	IN FORCE · PHASED	AI governance

Changed since 2024

The World Health Assembly adopted the Pandemic Agreement in May 2025²⁷
Amendments to the International Health Regulations were adopted in 2024²⁸
Jurisdictions began adopting the ISSB climate disclosure standard³³

To watch in 2027

Updated nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement²⁹
Implementation of the High Seas Agreement³²
National biodiversity strategies against the 2030 targets³⁰

6.6Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers global assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question: What does the published evidence establish about the world’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?
Sources searched: global assessments; UN and multilateral statistics; peer-reviewed literature; industry loss data
Window: releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection: sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step: systematic reviews for agenda items P-01 to P-06 in 2027

Table 6.3Assessments and peer-reviewed science
Reference	Type	Year	Role	Used for
Lee and Romero (eds.)¹⁵	assessment	2023	supports	forcing and risk
McElwee et al. (eds.)¹⁶	assessment	2024	framework	nexus interlinkages
O’Brien et al. (eds.)¹⁷	assessment	2024	context	transformative change
Richardson et al.²⁰	journal article	2023	supports	planetary boundaries
Rockström et al.⁴⁷	journal article	2023	framework	safe and just boundaries
Lenton et al. (eds.)²¹	report	2023	supports	tipping systems
Zscheischler et al.²²	journal article	2018	framework	compound events
Gaupp et al.²³	journal article	2020	supports	breadbasket risk
Lawrence et al.²⁴	journal article	2024	framework	polycrisis mechanisms
Romanello et al.²⁶	journal article	2024	supports	heat and health

Table 6.4Institutional flagships
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
State of the Global Climate¹⁴¹	WMO	2025–26	supports	temperature, ocean heat
GAR 2025¹⁸	UNDRR	2025	supports	disaster risk
Emissions and Adaptation Gap³⁴²	UNEP	2024	supports	emissions, finance gap
Global Energy Review⁴	IEA	2025	supports	energy emissions

Table 6.5UN and multilateral statistics
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
SOFI 2025⁷	FAO and partners	2025	supports	hunger
JMP 2023⁸	WHO · UNICEF	2023	supports	water and sanitation
World Population Prospects¹¹	UN DESA	2024	supports	population
Global Trends¹²	UNHCR	2025	supports	displacement
A World of Debt¹³	UNCTAD	2025	supports	debt service
Air-quality fact sheets¹⁴	WHO	2024	supports	air-pollution deaths
World Social Protection Report⁴⁴	ILO	2024	supports	social protection

Table 6.6Industry, energy and nature data
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
NatCatSERVICE 2025²	Munich Re	2026	supports	losses
Global Electricity Review⁶	Ember	2025	supports	clean power share
Energy and AI⁵	IEA	2025	supports	data-centre demand
Critical Minerals Outlook³⁶	IEA	2025	supports	refining concentration
Living Planet Report⁹	WWF	2024	supports	wildlife trends
Protected Planet¹⁰	UNEP-WCMC · IUCN	2024	supports	protected areas

Where the evidence agrees

The world is warming at a historic rate, with record ocean heat¹¹⁵
Losses are rising in trend and driven by frequency across perils²¹⁸
The five core systems are tightly interlinked¹⁶

Where it is unsettled

How close individual tipping systems are to their thresholds²¹
How often concurrent breadbasket failures will occur at each warming level²³
How fast AI-driven electricity demand will grow⁵

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

33International Sustainability Standards Board (ed.), IFRS S1 General Requirements and IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures. IFRS Foundation, London, 2023.back
29UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015.back
30Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
31UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015.back
32United Nations (ed.), Agreement under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea on the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Marine Biological Diversity of Areas beyond National Jurisdiction. United Nations, New York, 2023.back
28World Health Assembly (ed.), Amendments to the International Health Regulations (2005), resolution WHA77.17. WHO, Geneva, June 2024.back
27World Health Assembly (ed.), WHO Pandemic Agreement, resolution WHA78.1. WHO, Geneva, May 2025.back
34European Parliament and Council of the European Union (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 (Artificial Intelligence Act). Official Journal L, 12 July 2024, as amended.back
15H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.back
16P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 back
17K. O’Brien, L. Garibaldi and A. Agrawal (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Underlying Causes of Biodiversity Loss and the Determinants of Transformative Change. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024.back
20K. Richardson, W. Steffen, W. Lucht et al., “Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries,” Science Advances, vol. 9, eadh2458, 2023.back
47J. Rockström, J. Gupta, D. Qin et al., “Safe and just Earth system boundaries,” Nature, vol. 619, pp. 102–111, 2023.back
21T. M. Lenton, D. I. Armstrong McKay, S. Loriani et al. (eds.), The Global Tipping Points Report 2023. University of Exeter, Exeter, 2023.back
22J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018.back
23F. Gaupp, J. Hall, S. Hochrainer-Stigler and S. Dadson, “Changing risks of simultaneous global breadbasket failure,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 10, pp. 54–57, 2020.back
24M. Lawrence, T. Homer-Dixon, S. Janzwood, J. Rockström, O. Renn and J. F. Donges, “Global polycrisis: the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement,” Global Sustainability, vol. 7, e6, 2024.back
26M. Romanello et al., “The 2024 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change,” The Lancet, vol. 404, pp. 1847–1896, 2024.back
1WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, March 2026.back
41WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2024, WMO-No. 1368. WMO, Geneva, 2025.back
18UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays. UNDRR, Geneva, 2025.back
3UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please! UNEP, Nairobi, 2024.back
42UNEP (ed.), Adaptation Gap Report 2024: Come Hell and High Water. UNEP, Nairobi, 2024.back
4International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
7FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025.back
8WHO and UNICEF (eds.), Progress on Household Drinking Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 2000–2022. Joint Monitoring Programme, New York and Geneva, 2023.back
11UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results. United Nations, New York, 2024.back
12UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2024. UNHCR, Copenhagen, June 2025.back
13UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2025: It Is Time for Reform. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025.back
14World Health Organization (ed.), “Ambient (outdoor) air pollution” and “Household air pollution” fact sheets. WHO, Geneva, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
44International Labour Organization (ed.), World Social Protection Report 2024–26: Universal Social Protection for Climate Action and a Just Transition. ILO, Geneva, 2024.back
2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back
6Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2025. Ember, London, 2025.back
5International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
36International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
9WWF (ed.), Living Planet Report 2024: A System in Peril. WWF, Gland, 2024.back
10UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet Report 2024. UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, Cambridge and Gland, 2024.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 6: Lenses and readings. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report