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Baseline Edition 2026
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Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk

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ReportsSR-01

Strategic Systems

Global Polycrisis 2026

Baseline Edition 2026NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Imprint

Editor: Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Publisher of record: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto
Report number: NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE
Evidence close: 30 September 2026, cut DC-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-B0
Status: Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
DOI and UNI: Issued at deposit
Licence: CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence
Cite as: Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/sr-01/

Contents

·
Executive summary
1
Chapter 1. Crises are entangled, not stacked
2
Chapter 2. Key findings
3
Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline
4
Chapter 4. Risks and capability
5
Chapter 5. Concurrent breadbasket shortfall and energy price shock
6
Chapter 6. Lenses and readings
7
Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda
8
Chapter 8. Systems in depth
A
Annex A. Methodology
B
Annex B. Data appendix
C
Annex C. References and record

Global Polycrisis 2026
Executive summary

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

5 min read1 figure0 tables16 notesNR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

S.1Abstract

The world in 2026 faces crises that are entangled rather than additive. Researchers identify three causal mechanisms: common causes that stress several systems at once, domino effects that carry a shock from one system to the next, and feedbacks between systems that amplify both²⁴. The 2026 evidence shows all three. Warming at 1.43 °C in 2025, after a record 1.55 °C in 2024, is a common cause across water, food, health and nature¹. Natural-disaster losses of US$224 billion in 2025, half of them uninsured, move through household balance sheets and public budgets², where 3.4 billion people already live in countries that spend more on interest than on health or education¹³. About 673 million people faced hunger in 2024⁷ and 123.2 million were forcibly displaced¹². Six of nine planetary boundaries are transgressed²⁰. This Baseline Edition maps the mechanisms, fixes the reference state, and sets the questions the 2027 edition will test. It forecasts no collapse and ranks no threat.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the global baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1.43 °C above 1850–1900 in 2025, after a record 1.55 °C in 2024; 2023–2025 averaged 1.48 °C.¹⁴⁰
How warm is the world?Reported
Insured losses exceeded US$100 billion for the sixth year running; 2025 losses were driven by floods, storms and wildfires.²
Are disaster losses rising?Reported
Half of 2025 losses were uninsured; in Asia almost nine-tenths were.²
Who carries the losses?Reported
No: energy CO₂ set a record in 2024, although clean power supplied about 41% of electricity.⁴⁶
Are emissions falling?Reported
673 million people faced hunger in 2024; concurrent breadbasket failure is a rising tail risk.⁷²³
Is the food system stable?Reported
Wildlife populations fell by 73% on average from 1970 to 2020; six of nine planetary boundaries are transgressed.⁹²⁰
How fast is nature changing?Reported
Debt service: 3.4 billion people live where interest outweighs health or education spending.¹³
What constrains the response?Reported
A concurrent breadbasket shortfall coinciding with an energy and fertiliser price shock. SCN-SR01-BBF-01
What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003

Insurers covered about 48% of the US$224 billion in natural-disaster losses in 2025, about 70% in North America, about half in Europe, about 12% in Asia and under a fifth in Africa.

Figure S.1Natural-disaster losses in 2025 (US$ billion)

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
Insured		108
Uninsured		116

Source: Munich Re NatCatSERVICE 2025²; the uninsured share is the difference between overall and insured losses.

The protection gap is widest where exposure is growing fastest and fiscal space is thinnest. Uninsured losses become household debt, delayed reconstruction and pressure on public budgets, which feed back into vulnerability before the next event²¹³¹⁸.

S.4At a glance

8.2billion

people, 2024¹¹

1.55°C

record year, 2024⁴¹

423.9ppm

CO₂ concentration, 2024¹

57.1Gt CO₂e

GHG emissions, 2023³

123.2million

forcibly displaced, end-2024¹²

102US$ tn

public debt, 2024¹³

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports an entangled reading of global risk.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people global risk arrives as a price rise, a heat wave or a flood, and its burden depends on where they live.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. About half of disaster losses are uninsured, debt service crowds out adaptation, and climate disclosure standards are spreading.

NEXUS

Synthesis

The world’s crises share causes and channels.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A question-led baseline: how crises in climate, food, energy, finance, health and conflict become entangled through common causes, domino effects and feedbacks. It reads the same global evidence as the global edition, through the mechanisms that connect it.

What it is not

Not a list of crises, a prediction of collapse, a ranking of threats or countries, or a policy recommendation. It states where the scientific community disagrees before stating what this edition concludes.

What comes next

National, regional and sector evidence binds each mechanism in 2027. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

24M. Lawrence, T. Homer-Dixon, S. Janzwood, J. Rockström, O. Renn and J. F. Donges, “Global polycrisis: the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement,” Global Sustainability, vol. 7, e6, 2024.back
1WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, March 2026.back
2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back
13UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2025: It Is Time for Reform. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025.back
7FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025.back
12UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2024. UNHCR, Copenhagen, June 2025.back
20K. Richardson, W. Steffen, W. Lucht et al., “Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries,” Science Advances, vol. 9, eadh2458, 2023.back
40WMO (ed.), “WMO confirms 2025 was one of warmest years on record.” Press release. WMO, Geneva, January 2026.back
4International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
6Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2025. Ember, London, 2025.back
23F. Gaupp, J. Hall, S. Hochrainer-Stigler and S. Dadson, “Changing risks of simultaneous global breadbasket failure,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 10, pp. 54–57, 2020.back
9WWF (ed.), Living Planet Report 2024: A System in Peril. WWF, Gland, 2024.back
18UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays. UNDRR, Geneva, 2025.back
11UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results. United Nations, New York, 2024.back
41WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2024, WMO-No. 1368. WMO, Geneva, 2025.back
3UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please! UNEP, Nairobi, 2024.back

Global Polycrisis 2026
Chapter 1

Crises are entangled, not stacked

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no country and assesses no government or organisation.

7 min read2 figures2 tables14 notesNR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

Where is global risk concentrated, and in which systems?
Which couplings carry shocks across sectors and borders?
Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
What must the federation measure first in 2027?

In this part

Narrative
Headline finding
Lead figure
Five mechanism chapters
Twelve-domain reading
Sector screens
Dependency matrix
Risk objects
Capability ladder
Scenario
Three lenses
Portfolio

1.2The argument

Polycrisis is often used as a mood. This edition uses it as a model. Lawrence and co-authors define three mechanisms through which crises become entangled: common causes that stress several systems at once, domino effects that carry a shock from one system to the next, and inter-systemic feedbacks that amplify both²⁴. Each can be observed, and each can be tested.

The forcing layer is moving fast. 2024 was the warmest year on record at 1.55 °C above the late nineteenth century, and 2025 the second or third warmest at 1.43 °C; the eleven years 2015–2025 are the eleven warmest observed. Earth’s energy imbalance and ocean heat content reached record highs in 2025, which means the system is still gaining heat¹.

Losses follow, but unevenly. Natural disasters caused US$224 billion in losses in 2025, and insured losses exceeded US$100 billion for the sixth year running. No major hurricane struck the United States mainland; the total was driven by floods, severe storms and wildfires, led by the Los Angeles fires at about US$53 billion². Frequency, not one peak event, now sets the global loss record.

Who pays depends on where the hazard lands. Insurers covered about 70% of losses in North America but about 12% in Asia and under a fifth in Africa². Where cover is thin, losses fall on households and on public budgets that are already stretched: 3.4 billion people live in countries that spend more on interest than on health or education¹³.

Beneath the losses, the core systems are already under strain. About 673 million people faced hunger in 2024⁷, 2.2 billion lacked safely managed drinking water⁸, air pollution kills about 6.7 million people a year¹⁴, and monitored wildlife populations have fallen by 73% on average since 1970⁹. Each of these is coupled to the others through land, water and energy¹⁶.

New couplings are forming at the frontier. Data centres used about 415 TWh of electricity in 2024, about 1.5% of the world total, and their use is projected to roughly double by 2030⁵. The minerals behind batteries, grids and chips are refined in very few places: the top three refining countries hold, on average, about 86% of supply for key energy minerals³⁶. Technology risk is therefore also energy, water and supply-chain risk.

Capabilities have grown, but unevenly. 108 countries reported multi-hazard early-warning systems in 2024, more than twice as many as in 2015³⁵, and just over half of the world’s people are now covered by at least one social-protection benefit⁴⁴. Adaptation finance, however, falls short of need by an estimated US$187–359 billion a year⁴².

This edition therefore reads global risk as a property of couplings rather than a ranking of threats. The dependency matrix, the risk objects, the capability ladder and the compound scenario that follow all ask the same two questions: where does a shock travel next, and who holds the capability to stop it?

Figure 1.1Where did 2025’s natural-disaster losses fall? Overall losses by region (US$ billion)

North America, including Central America and the Caribbean, carried the largest losses, and about 70% of them were insured. Asia’s losses were more than half as large, but only about US$9 billion was insured. Africa’s recorded losses were small in money terms but almost entirely uninsured².

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
North America		133
Asia		73
Europe		11
Africa		3

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2025.

Figure ID FIG-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003

93US$ bn

insured in North America²

9US$ bn

insured in Asia²

17,200deaths

in natural disasters, 2025²

166US$ bn

from floods, storms and wildfires²

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The global matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited assessments and analogue events; they set the starting graph that federation evidence will test in 2027.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

Strong
Moderate
Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, to	WAT	ENE	FOO	HLT	BIO
WAT Water	·	STRONG hydro · thermal cooling	STRONG irrigation · rain-fed yield	STRONG safe water · sanitation	STRONG flows · wetlands
ENE Energy	MODERATE pumping · desalination	·	STRONG fuel · fertiliser · cold chain	STRONG air pollution · cooling	MODERATE land use · mining
FOO Food	STRONG ≈70% of withdrawals	WEAK bioenergy feedstock	·	STRONG nutrition · food safety	STRONG land conversion
HLT Health	WEAK workforce	WEAK workforce	MODERATE labour · disease	·	WEAK residues
BIO Biodiversity	STRONG regulation · filtration	MODERATE biomass · hydrology	STRONG pollination · soils	MODERATE zoonoses · medicines	·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

01
CLI → FOO → TRD
Heat and drought in several breadbaskets at once cut exports and raise prices.
Inferred 2010–2011 price spike
02
ENE → FOO
Gas and fertiliser prices pass into food prices.
Reported 2022 price shock
03
CLI → WAT → ENE
Drought cuts hydro and cooling water for thermal plants.
Inferred 2022 European drought
04
BIO → HLT
Land-use change raises zoonotic spillover risk.
Inferred IPBES nexus¹⁶
05
FIN → all
Debt service crowds out adaptation and recovery.
Reported post-2022 debt stress¹³

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Table 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
Loop	First direction	Second direction
WAT and FOO	Water to food: irrigation · rain-fed yield	Food to water: ≈70% of withdrawals
WAT and BIO	Water to biodiversity: flows · wetlands	Biodiversity to water: regulation · filtration
FOO and BIO	Food to biodiversity: land conversion	Biodiversity to food: pollination · soils
A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

24M. Lawrence, T. Homer-Dixon, S. Janzwood, J. Rockström, O. Renn and J. F. Donges, “Global polycrisis: the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement,” Global Sustainability, vol. 7, e6, 2024.back
1WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, March 2026.back
2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back
13UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2025: It Is Time for Reform. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025.back
7FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025.back
8WHO and UNICEF (eds.), Progress on Household Drinking Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 2000–2022. Joint Monitoring Programme, New York and Geneva, 2023.back
14World Health Organization (ed.), “Ambient (outdoor) air pollution” and “Household air pollution” fact sheets. WHO, Geneva, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
9WWF (ed.), Living Planet Report 2024: A System in Peril. WWF, Gland, 2024.back
16P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 back
5International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
36International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
35WMO and UNDRR (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2024. WMO and UNDRR, Geneva, 2024.back
44International Labour Organization (ed.), World Social Protection Report 2024–26: Universal Social Protection for Climate Action and a Just Transition. ILO, Geneva, 2024.back
42UNEP (ed.), Adaptation Gap Report 2024: Come Hell and High Water. UNEP, Nairobi, 2024.back

Global Polycrisis 2026
Chapter 2

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the global baseline. They are grouped by system and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

3 min read1 figure0 tables14 notesNR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003

Insurers covered about 48% of the US$224 billion in natural-disaster losses in 2025, about 70% in North America, about half in Europe, about 12% in Asia and under a fifth in Africa.

Figure 2.1Natural-disaster losses in 2025 (US$ billion)

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
Insured		108
Uninsured		116

Source: Munich Re NatCatSERVICE 2025²; the uninsured share is the difference between overall and insured losses.

Implication

What would move it

Regional loss splits by peril (agenda item P-02), the growth of sovereign and parametric cover, and the 2026 and 2027 loss years would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

ReportedEQL 5NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001
Global temperature was 1.43 ± 0.13 °C above 1850–1900 in 2025, after a record 1.55 °C in 2024; 2015–2025 are the eleven warmest years.¹
ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-010
Six of nine planetary boundaries were assessed as transgressed in 2023, and five major tipping systems are at risk at current warming.²⁰²¹

2.3Finance

ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002
Natural disasters caused US$224 billion in losses in 2025, of which US$108 billion (48%) was insured.²
ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003
Insured shares differ sharply by region: about 70% in North America, about half in Europe, about 12% in Asia and under a fifth in Africa (2025).²
ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011
Public debt reached US$102 trillion in 2024; 3.4 billion people live in countries that spend more on interest than on health or education.¹³

2.4Energy

ReportedEQL 5NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004
Energy-related CO₂ emissions reached a record 37.8 Gt in 2024; total greenhouse-gas emissions were 57.1 Gt CO₂e in 2023.³⁴
ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005
Data centres used about 415 TWh of electricity in 2024, about 1.5% of the world total, with use projected to roughly double by 2030.⁵

2.5Food

ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-006
About 673 million people faced hunger in 2024, and 2.3 billion were moderately or severely food insecure.⁷

2.6Water

ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007
2.2 billion people lacked safely managed drinking water and 3.5 billion lacked safely managed sanitation in 2022.⁸

2.7Health

ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008
Ambient and household air pollution together cause about 6.7 million deaths a year.¹⁴

2.8Biodiversity

ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009
Monitored wildlife populations declined by 73% on average between 1970 and 2020; 17.6% of land and 8.4% of the ocean are protected.⁹¹⁰

2.9Systemic

Expert inputEQL 2NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012
The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a concurrent breadbasket shortfall coinciding with an energy and fertiliser price shock. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back
13UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2025: It Is Time for Reform. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025.back
18UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays. UNDRR, Geneva, 2025.back
1WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, March 2026.back
20K. Richardson, W. Steffen, W. Lucht et al., “Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries,” Science Advances, vol. 9, eadh2458, 2023.back
21T. M. Lenton, D. I. Armstrong McKay, S. Loriani et al. (eds.), The Global Tipping Points Report 2023. University of Exeter, Exeter, 2023.back
3UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please! UNEP, Nairobi, 2024.back
4International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
5International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
7FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025.back
8WHO and UNICEF (eds.), Progress on Household Drinking Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 2000–2022. Joint Monitoring Programme, New York and Geneva, 2023.back
14World Health Organization (ed.), “Ambient (outdoor) air pollution” and “Household air pollution” fact sheets. WHO, Geneva, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
9WWF (ed.), Living Planet Report 2024: A System in Peril. WWF, Gland, 2024.back
10UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet Report 2024. UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, Cambridge and Gland, 2024.back

Global Polycrisis 2026
Chapter 3

Systems and sectors at baseline

5 min read0 figures2 tables16 notesNR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

People without safely managed drinking water

2.2billion

3.5 billion lacked safely managed sanitation in the same year.

Reported2022WHO/UNICEF JMP⁸

ENE · Energy

Energy-related CO₂ emissions

37.8Gt CO₂

A record high, up 0.8% on 2023, as demand grew faster than clean supply.

Reported2024IEA⁴

FOO · Food

People facing hunger

673million

About 8.2% of the world population; 2.3 billion were moderately or severely food insecure.

Reported2024SOFI 2025⁷

HLT · Health

Deaths each year from ambient and household air pollution

6.7million

Air pollution couples energy, cities and health more directly than any other pathway.

Reported2019–2020WHO¹⁴

BIO · Biodiversity

Average decline of monitored wildlife populations

−73%

1970–2020. 17.6% of land and 8.4% of the ocean are protected, against 30% by 2030.

Reported1970–2020WWF⁹ ·¹⁰

SYS · Cross-system

Natural-disaster losses · insured

224 · 108US$ bn

The sixth year above US$100 billion insured; floods, storms and fires dominated.

Reported2025Munich Re²

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The reading states where the global evidence points; the coupling column names the dependency that carries risk across systems and borders.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
Domain	Posture at baseline	Coupling	Status
WAT	2.2 billion people without safely managed drinking water; basin stress concentrated in arid and fast-growing regions.	WAT → FOO irrigation · WAT → ENE cooling	Reported EQL 4
ENE	Record energy CO₂ in 2024; clean power at about 41% of electricity; demand rising with cooling and compute.	ENE ↔ WAT · ENE → FOO inputs	Reported EQL 5
FOO	673 million people facing hunger; production concentrated in a few breadbaskets and exporters.	FOO ← WAT, ENE · FOO → TRD	Reported EQL 4
HLT	Air pollution and heat are the leading environmental health burdens; One Health risks persist.	HLT ← CLI, ENE, BIO	Reported EQL 4
BIO	Wildlife populations down 73% since 1970; protection below 30% targets on land and sea.	BIO → WAT, FOO · BIO ← land use	Reported EQL 4
CLI	1.43 °C in 2025 after a record 1.55 °C; energy imbalance at a record high.	forcing on all five systems	Reported EQL 5
INF	Chokepoints in shipping, power and data networks concentrate exposure.	INF → TRD, ENE, FOO	Inferred EQL 3
FIN	Insured losses above US$100 billion for six years; about half of losses uninsured; debt constrains response.	FIN ← CLI · FIN → sovereigns	Reported EQL 4
DAT	Cloud, cable and satellite dependencies are concentrated and only partly mapped.	DAT → ENE, FIN, HLT	Expert input EQL 2
AIC	Data centres used about 415 TWh in 2024; use projected to roughly double by 2030.	AIC → ENE, WAT, MIN	Reported EQL 3
MIN	Refining of key energy minerals concentrated: the top three refiners average about 86%.	MIN → ENE transition, AIC	Reported EQL 3
TRD	Trade fragmentation and export restrictions raise transmission risk for food and minerals.	TRD → all systems	Inferred EQL 3

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen global sectors are screened on the same grammar as every national edition, so later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
Code	Sector	Baseline evidence	Exposure to watch	Evidence coverage
GS-00	Cross-system	entangled crises; six of nine boundaries transgressed²⁰	compound and cascading shocks	PARTIAL
GS-01	Water	2.2 billion without safely managed water⁸	drought and flood extremes	GOOD
GS-02	Energy	record CO₂; about 41% clean power⁴⁶	heat demand; mineral concentration	GOOD
GS-03	Food and agrifood	673 million facing hunger⁷	concurrent breadbasket failure	GOOD
GS-04	Health	6.7 million air-pollution deaths a year¹⁴	heat, pandemics, antimicrobial resistance	PARTIAL
GS-05	Finance and economy	US$102 trillion public debt¹³	debt distress after disasters	GOOD
GS-06	Development	123.2 million forcibly displaced¹²	conflict–climate compounding	PARTIAL
GS-07	Climate	1.43 °C in 2025¹	extremes and tipping risk	GOOD
GS-08	Disaster	US$224 billion losses in 2025²	frequency of medium events	GOOD
GS-09	Infrastructure	chokepoint concentration	shipping, power and cable outages	PARTIAL
GS-10	Cities	most people now live in cities¹¹	urban heat and flooding	PARTIAL
GS-11	Biodiversity	−73% wildlife populations⁹	land-use change and fire	GOOD
GS-12	Earth observation	strong global observing systems	continuity of key missions	PARTIAL
GS-13	Cyber and digital	concentrated cloud and network dependence	systemic outages	THIN
GS-14	Policy and institutions	new pandemic and ocean agreements²⁷³²	implementation and finance gaps	PARTIAL
GS-15	Science and engineering	deep research base; AI adoption rising³⁷	translation and dual use	THIN

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

8WHO and UNICEF (eds.), Progress on Household Drinking Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 2000–2022. Joint Monitoring Programme, New York and Geneva, 2023.back
4International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
7FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025.back
14World Health Organization (ed.), “Ambient (outdoor) air pollution” and “Household air pollution” fact sheets. WHO, Geneva, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
9WWF (ed.), Living Planet Report 2024: A System in Peril. WWF, Gland, 2024.back
10UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet Report 2024. UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, Cambridge and Gland, 2024.back
2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back
20K. Richardson, W. Steffen, W. Lucht et al., “Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries,” Science Advances, vol. 9, eadh2458, 2023.back
6Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2025. Ember, London, 2025.back
13UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2025: It Is Time for Reform. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025.back
12UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2024. UNHCR, Copenhagen, June 2025.back
1WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, March 2026.back
11UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results. United Nations, New York, 2024.back
27World Health Assembly (ed.), WHO Pandemic Agreement, resolution WHA78.1. WHO, Geneva, May 2025.back
32United Nations (ed.), Agreement under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea on the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Marine Biological Diversity of Areas beyond National Jurisdiction. United Nations, New York, 2023.back
37Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (ed.), Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2025. Stanford HAI, Stanford, 2025.back

Global Polycrisis 2026
Chapter 4

Risks and capability

Four global risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence; loss metrics are added only where they can be modelled.

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4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

InferredEQL 3RSK-SR01-FOO-001
Concurrent breadbasket shortfall
Driver
heat and drought in several producing regions in one season
Exposure
import-dependent countries; low-income households
Vulnerability
concentrated exports; thin stocks; price-sensitive diets
Capacity
trade openness; reserves; social protection
Cascade
CLI → FOO → TRD → HLT
Horizon
seasonal · 1 and 5 years
ReportedEQL 4RSK-SR01-FIN-002
Uninsured losses where cover is thin
Driver
rising frequency of floods, storms and fires
Exposure
Asia, Africa, small island states
Vulnerability
low insurance; limited fiscal space¹³
Capacity
sovereign and parametric cover; development finance
Cascade
CLI → FIN → households, sovereigns
Horizon
annual
ReportedEQL 3RSK-SR01-MIN-003
Concentration in critical-mineral refining
Driver
rising demand for transition and compute minerals
Exposure
battery, grid and chip supply chains
Vulnerability
top three refiners average about 86%³⁶
Capacity
stockpiles; recycling; diversification
Cascade
MIN → ENE, AIC → FIN
Horizon
1–5 years
InferredEQL 3RSK-SR01-CLI-004
Crossing of Earth-system tipping points
Driver
continued warming above 1.5 °C
Exposure
coasts, coral reefs, monsoon and polar systems
Vulnerability
irreversibility once thresholds are crossed
Capacity
emission cuts; monitoring; adaptation
Cascade
CLI → BIO, WAT → all
Horizon
10 years and beyond

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the global level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
Function	Level	Strongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigation	EXISTS	Paris and Sendai frameworks; emissions still rising³²⁹³¹
Monitoring and observation	DEMONSTRATED	global observing systems underpin WMO and C3S records¹³⁹
Early warning	EXISTS	108 countries reported multi-hazard early-warning systems in 2024³⁵
Preparedness and planning	EXISTS	national adaptation plans uneven; adaptation finance gap of US$187–359 billion a year⁴²
Redundancy and reserves	LISTED	no coordinated global food or mineral reserve
Response	DEMONSTRATED	international humanitarian response in real events; chronically underfunded
Continuity of critical services	EXISTS	sector-level plans; limited cross-border testing
Recovery	EXISTS	development finance and debt relief instruments
Adaptation	EXISTS	plans widespread; finance below need⁴²
Social protection	EXISTS	52.4% of people covered by at least one benefit⁴⁴
Finance and insurance	EXISTS	deep markets in some regions; about half of losses uninsured²
Institutional coordination	EXISTS	new pandemic agreement and IHR amendments²⁷²⁸
Technical infrastructure	EXISTS	global networks concentrated in few chokepoints
Workforce	LISTED	health and emergency workforce shortages widely reported
Research capacity	ADEQUATE	IPCC and IPBES assessments; translation uneven¹⁵¹⁶
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

13UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2025: It Is Time for Reform. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025.back
36International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
3UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please! UNEP, Nairobi, 2024.back
29UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015.back
31UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015.back
1WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, March 2026.back
39Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2024. ECMWF, Reading, January 2025.back
35WMO and UNDRR (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2024. WMO and UNDRR, Geneva, 2024.back
42UNEP (ed.), Adaptation Gap Report 2024: Come Hell and High Water. UNEP, Nairobi, 2024.back
44International Labour Organization (ed.), World Social Protection Report 2024–26: Universal Social Protection for Climate Action and a Just Transition. ILO, Geneva, 2024.back
2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back
27World Health Assembly (ed.), WHO Pandemic Agreement, resolution WHA78.1. WHO, Geneva, May 2025.back
28World Health Assembly (ed.), Amendments to the International Health Regulations (2005), resolution WHA77.17. WHO, Geneva, June 2024.back
15H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.back
16P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 back

Global Polycrisis 2026
Chapter 5

Concurrent breadbasket shortfall and energy price shock

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

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5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline: the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers: heat and drought across two or more major grain-exporting regions in one season, while gas and fertiliser prices spike
Analogues: 2007–2008 and 2010–2011 food price spikes; 2022 energy and fertiliser shock
Interventions: none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state: narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027²³

5.2The cascade, step by step

1
CLI → FOO
heat and drought cut yields in several exporters at once
2010 · 2012
2
ENE → FOO
fertiliser and fuel costs raise production costs
2022
3
FOO → TRD
export restrictions amplify the price rise
2008 · 2011
4
TRD → HLT
food-price rises cut diets in import-dependent households
2008
5
FIN → sovereigns
import bills and subsidies widen deficits
2022
6
HLT → development
hunger and displacement rise in fragile settings
2011

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01 would travel through Global Polycrisis‘s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Climate to food	Heat and drought cut yields in several exporters at once. Analogue or source: 2010 · 2012.	Edition SR-01, scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01, step 1
02 Energy to food	Fertiliser and fuel costs raise production costs. Analogue or source: 2022.	Edition SR-01, scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01, step 2
03 Food to trade	Export restrictions amplify the price rise. Analogue or source: 2008 · 2011.	Edition SR-01, scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01, step 3
04 Trade to health	Food-price rises cut diets in import-dependent households. Analogue or source: 2008.	Edition SR-01, scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01, step 4
05 Finance to sovereigns	Import bills and subsidies widen deficits. Analogue or source: 2022.	Edition SR-01, scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01, step 5
06 Health to development	Hunger and displacement rise in fragile settings. Analogue or source: 2011.	Edition SR-01, scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Global Polycrisis 2026, scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01 (2026); Global Polycrisis 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

23F. Gaupp, J. Hall, S. Hochrainer-Stigler and S. Dadson, “Changing risks of simultaneous global breadbasket failure,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 10, pp. 54–57, 2020.back

Global Polycrisis 2026
Chapter 6

Lenses and readings

The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.

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6.1Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports an entangled reading of global risk. Warming and losses set records in the same years; frequency, not one peak event, drives losses; and the five core systems share dependence on water, energy and land. Evidence is strongest for climate and losses, and weakest for digital dependencies and tipping proximity.

CLI-001 · FIN-002 · CLI-010 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people global risk arrives as a price rise, a heat wave or a flood, and its burden depends on where they live. The baseline asks that public debate weigh the couplings and the distribution of losses, not a list of separate threats.

FIN-003 · FOO-006 · HLT-008

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. About half of disaster losses are uninsured, debt service crowds out adaptation, and climate disclosure standards are spreading³³. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.

FIN-002 · FIN-003 · FIN-011

NEXUS

Synthesis

The world’s crises share causes and channels. The 2027 programme should test the mechanisms rather than list the crises: bind the common causes, trace the dominoes through fiscal and food channels, and measure the feedbacks that make recovery slower than the next shock.

SYS-012 · P-01 · P-02

6.2GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.3Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

In 2025 no major hurricane reached the United States mainland, and insured losses still passed US$100 billion for the sixth year running. Floods, hail, storms and wildfires, individually “medium”, now add up to totals that once required a single great catastrophe. Global resilience has to be measured against many events in close succession, not one event of record size.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

Medium events are the new catastrophe

About half of 2025’s disaster losses were uninsured, and almost nine-tenths in Asia. Where cover is thin, a flood becomes household debt and a fiscal shock, and recovery competes with interest payments. Closing the gap is less a question of insurance products than of fiscal space, data and risk reduction.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

The protection gap is a development gap

Data centres used about 415 TWh of electricity in 2024, and refining of the minerals behind batteries and chips is concentrated in very few places. The digital transition is also an energy, water and minerals transition, and its risks sit in substations, cooling towers and refineries as much as in software.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

Frontier technology is physical

A small number of regions grow most of the world’s traded grain. A season in which several of them fail together, more likely as the world warms, would travel through prices to every import-dependent household. The world tracks harvests one country at a time; the risk lives in their concurrence.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

Breadbaskets are a shared exposure

6.4Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 polycrisis readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.12027 polycrisis readiness pack
Item	Register	State at baseline	First 2027 entry
E1	Global risk state delta	baseline set by this edition	changes against the baseline
E2	WEFH+B state delta	five global system readings set	indicator updates and freshness
E3	Agenda and Portfolio movement	eight agenda items · seven proposed objects	admission decisions
E4	Federation delivery register	Canada issued; 85 editions in programme	regional and sector baselines
E5	Consortium capability register	national consortia forming	first contributions
E6	Leadership questions and challenges	none yet	first challenge log
E7	Foundry technical state	national environments prepared	first federation cut
E8	Publication candidates	twelve findings carried forward	PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9	Universe readiness	one candidate mission	admission and role spine
E10	Correction register	none	first federation-wide cycle

Publication dispositions

Publish
Hold
Needs evidence
Restricted
Superseded

6.5Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

International instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

IN FORCE
ADOPTED
ADOPTED · OPEN FOR SIGNATURE
PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

Table 6.2Standards and regulatory watch
Instrument	Body	Scope	Status	Relevance
Paris Agreement²⁹	UNFCCC	global	IN FORCE	emissions, adaptation
Kunming-Montreal Framework³⁰	CBD	global	ADOPTED 2022	30% by 2030
Sendai Framework 2015–2030³¹	UNDRR	global	ADOPTED 2015	disaster risk reduction
High Seas (BBNJ) Agreement³²	United Nations	ocean beyond national jurisdiction	ADOPTED 2023	marine biodiversity
International Health Regulations, 2024 amendments²⁸	WHO	global	ADOPTED 2024	pandemic preparedness
WHO Pandemic Agreement²⁷	WHO	global	ADOPTED · OPEN FOR SIGNATURE	prevention, access
IFRS S1 and S2³³	ISSB	jurisdictions adopting	PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY	climate disclosure
Regulation (EU) 2024/1689³⁴	EU	European Union	IN FORCE · PHASED	AI governance

Changed since 2024

The World Health Assembly adopted the Pandemic Agreement in May 2025²⁷
Amendments to the International Health Regulations were adopted in 2024²⁸
Jurisdictions began adopting the ISSB climate disclosure standard³³

To watch in 2027

Updated nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement²⁹
Implementation of the High Seas Agreement³²
National biodiversity strategies against the 2030 targets³⁰

6.6Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers global assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question: What does the published evidence establish about the world’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?
Sources searched: global assessments; UN and multilateral statistics; peer-reviewed literature; industry loss data
Window: releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection: sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step: systematic reviews for agenda items P-01 to P-06 in 2027

Table 6.3Assessments and peer-reviewed science
Reference	Type	Year	Role	Used for
Lee and Romero (eds.)¹⁵	assessment	2023	supports	forcing and risk
McElwee et al. (eds.)¹⁶	assessment	2024	framework	nexus interlinkages
O’Brien et al. (eds.)¹⁷	assessment	2024	context	transformative change
Richardson et al.²⁰	journal article	2023	supports	planetary boundaries
Rockström et al.⁴⁷	journal article	2023	framework	safe and just boundaries
Lenton et al. (eds.)²¹	report	2023	supports	tipping systems
Zscheischler et al.²²	journal article	2018	framework	compound events
Gaupp et al.²³	journal article	2020	supports	breadbasket risk
Lawrence et al.²⁴	journal article	2024	framework	polycrisis mechanisms
Romanello et al.²⁶	journal article	2024	supports	heat and health

Table 6.4Institutional flagships
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
State of the Global Climate¹⁴¹	WMO	2025–26	supports	temperature, ocean heat
GAR 2025¹⁸	UNDRR	2025	supports	disaster risk
Emissions and Adaptation Gap³⁴²	UNEP	2024	supports	emissions, finance gap
Global Energy Review⁴	IEA	2025	supports	energy emissions

Table 6.5UN and multilateral statistics
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
SOFI 2025⁷	FAO and partners	2025	supports	hunger
JMP 2023⁸	WHO · UNICEF	2023	supports	water and sanitation
World Population Prospects¹¹	UN DESA	2024	supports	population
Global Trends¹²	UNHCR	2025	supports	displacement
A World of Debt¹³	UNCTAD	2025	supports	debt service
Air-quality fact sheets¹⁴	WHO	2024	supports	air-pollution deaths
World Social Protection Report⁴⁴	ILO	2024	supports	social protection

Table 6.6Industry, energy and nature data
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
NatCatSERVICE 2025²	Munich Re	2026	supports	losses
Global Electricity Review⁶	Ember	2025	supports	clean power share
Energy and AI⁵	IEA	2025	supports	data-centre demand
Critical Minerals Outlook³⁶	IEA	2025	supports	refining concentration
Living Planet Report⁹	WWF	2024	supports	wildlife trends
Protected Planet¹⁰	UNEP-WCMC · IUCN	2024	supports	protected areas

Where the evidence agrees

The world is warming at a historic rate, with record ocean heat¹¹⁵
Losses are rising in trend and driven by frequency across perils²¹⁸
The five core systems are tightly interlinked¹⁶

Where it is unsettled

How close individual tipping systems are to their thresholds²¹
How often concurrent breadbasket failures will occur at each warming level²³
How fast AI-driven electricity demand will grow⁵

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

33International Sustainability Standards Board (ed.), IFRS S1 General Requirements and IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures. IFRS Foundation, London, 2023.back
29UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015.back
30Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
31UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015.back
32United Nations (ed.), Agreement under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea on the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Marine Biological Diversity of Areas beyond National Jurisdiction. United Nations, New York, 2023.back
28World Health Assembly (ed.), Amendments to the International Health Regulations (2005), resolution WHA77.17. WHO, Geneva, June 2024.back
27World Health Assembly (ed.), WHO Pandemic Agreement, resolution WHA78.1. WHO, Geneva, May 2025.back
34European Parliament and Council of the European Union (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 (Artificial Intelligence Act). Official Journal L, 12 July 2024, as amended.back
15H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.back
16P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 back
17K. O’Brien, L. Garibaldi and A. Agrawal (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Underlying Causes of Biodiversity Loss and the Determinants of Transformative Change. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024.back
20K. Richardson, W. Steffen, W. Lucht et al., “Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries,” Science Advances, vol. 9, eadh2458, 2023.back
47J. Rockström, J. Gupta, D. Qin et al., “Safe and just Earth system boundaries,” Nature, vol. 619, pp. 102–111, 2023.back
21T. M. Lenton, D. I. Armstrong McKay, S. Loriani et al. (eds.), The Global Tipping Points Report 2023. University of Exeter, Exeter, 2023.back
22J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018.back
23F. Gaupp, J. Hall, S. Hochrainer-Stigler and S. Dadson, “Changing risks of simultaneous global breadbasket failure,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 10, pp. 54–57, 2020.back
24M. Lawrence, T. Homer-Dixon, S. Janzwood, J. Rockström, O. Renn and J. F. Donges, “Global polycrisis: the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement,” Global Sustainability, vol. 7, e6, 2024.back
26M. Romanello et al., “The 2024 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change,” The Lancet, vol. 404, pp. 1847–1896, 2024.back
1WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, March 2026.back
41WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2024, WMO-No. 1368. WMO, Geneva, 2025.back
18UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays. UNDRR, Geneva, 2025.back
3UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please! UNEP, Nairobi, 2024.back
42UNEP (ed.), Adaptation Gap Report 2024: Come Hell and High Water. UNEP, Nairobi, 2024.back
4International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
7FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025.back
8WHO and UNICEF (eds.), Progress on Household Drinking Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 2000–2022. Joint Monitoring Programme, New York and Geneva, 2023.back
11UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results. United Nations, New York, 2024.back
12UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2024. UNHCR, Copenhagen, June 2025.back
13UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2025: It Is Time for Reform. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025.back
14World Health Organization (ed.), “Ambient (outdoor) air pollution” and “Household air pollution” fact sheets. WHO, Geneva, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
44International Labour Organization (ed.), World Social Protection Report 2024–26: Universal Social Protection for Climate Action and a Just Transition. ILO, Geneva, 2024.back
2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back
6Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2025. Ember, London, 2025.back
5International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
36International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
9WWF (ed.), Living Planet Report 2024: A System in Peril. WWF, Gland, 2024.back
10UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet Report 2024. UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, Cambridge and Gland, 2024.back

Global Polycrisis 2026
Chapter 7

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 polycrisis agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 polycrisis edition.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

7.1Questions for the operational series

P-01
How likely is a simultaneous shortfall across major breadbaskets at 1.5–2 °C, and which import-dependent countries are most exposed?
INI-SR01-FOO-01 · breadbasket concurrency; first output: concurrency model and exposure register.
P-02
Where does the uninsured share of disaster losses land, by region, peril and income group?
INI-SR01-FIN-02 · global protection-gap atlas; first output: region-by-peril loss table, 2015–2025.
P-03
How do AI compute demand, power systems, water and critical-mineral refining constrain one another?
INI-SR01-TEC-03 · compute–power–minerals nexus; first output: demand and concentration map.
P-04
Which tipping systems are closest, and which indicators would give early warning?
INI-SR01-CLI-04 · tipping indicators register; first output: indicator register with evidence grades.
P-05
How does debt service constrain adaptation and recovery where hazard is highest?
INI-SR01-FIN-05 · debt–adaptation constraint; first output: exposure–fiscal space matrix.
P-06
How do heat and water stress couple through health, labour and food in the tropics?
INI-SR01-HLT-06 · heat–water–labour; first output: regional heat–work exposure layer.
P-07
Where do early-warning gaps coincide with high hazard and thin insurance?
To be admitted in 2027; first output: gap overlay with WMO and UNDRR data.
P-08
How do conflict, displacement and climate hazards compound in fragile settings?
To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Six initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 global portfolio. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
ID	Object	Kind	Question	State
INI-SR01-FOO-01	Breadbasket concurrency model	Initiative	P-01	PROPOSED
INI-SR01-FIN-02	Global protection-gap atlas	Initiative	P-02	PROPOSED
INI-SR01-TEC-03	Compute–power–minerals nexus	Initiative	P-03	PROPOSED
INI-SR01-CLI-04	Tipping indicators register	Initiative	P-04	PROPOSED
INI-SR01-FIN-05	Debt–adaptation constraint	Initiative	P-05	PROPOSED
INI-SR01-HLT-06	Heat–water–labour exposure	Initiative	P-06	PROPOSED
MSN-SR01-2027-01	Breadbasket–energy compound Universe mission	Mission	P-01	Candidate

7.3The pathway

The global edition is the top of the federation. It does not collect its own evidence. It reads national, regional and sector editions through one governed evidence graph, so a correction made anywhere travels everywhere. At baseline the federation is designed and its first edition is issued.

01
National Foundries
continuous national evidence environments
PREPARED · first sealed cuts in Q1 2027
02
National Models and Portfolios
each country as a system of systems
CANADA v0 ISSUED · 25 further national baselines
03
Quarterly national reports
State & Agenda, Evidence, Stress Test, Annual
BASELINE STAGE · Q1 2027 opens the series
04
Regional aggregation
ten regional clusters
10 PLANNED · regional baselines in 2026–2027
05
Global sector and strategic models
GS-01…15 · SR-01…14 · XT-01…20
49 PLANNED · pilots: GS-01, SR-01, XT-01
06
Universe
annual proving environment
CANDIDATE MISSION · global mandate in 2027
07
Global Report
this series
BASELINE ISSUED · 2027 annual edition
08
Evidence and correction
one graph, many projections
OPEN · first federation-wide correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the polycrisis candidate mission

01
Mandate
02
Core Build · 1 month
03
Action · 1 week
04
Evidence seal
05
Portfolio correction
06
Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the polycrisis candidate mission
Item	Record	State	Timing
F1	Annual mandate record	PLANNED	after the Q2 2027 alignment
F2	Core Build record	PLANNED	one month before the exercise
F3	Exercise evidence	PLANNED	during the Action week
F4	Decision packets	PLANNED	exercise state only
F5	Proof receipts	PLANNED	scoped to each recorded check
F6	After-action report	PLANNED	within one quarter
F7	Upgrade docket	PLANNED	routed to the Portfolio
F8	Portfolio renewal	PLANNED	2027 polycrisis annual edition
F9	Public synthesis	PLANNED	public-safe extracts only

Mission

ID: MSN-SR01-2027-01 · breadbasket–energy compound shock
Role spine: Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead, drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors: to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
Finding	Routed to	Purpose	Class
CLI-001 · temperature	public record	reference for the 2027 series	PUBLIC
FIN-002 · losses	finance-readiness review (key F)	protection-gap atlas P-02	PUBLIC
FIN-003 · regional insured shares	regional consortia	regional loss splits	PUBLIC
ENE-005 · data-centre demand	INI-SR01-TEC-03	compute–power–minerals nexus	PUBLIC
FOO-006 · hunger	INI-SR01-FOO-01	breadbasket concurrency	PUBLIC
CLI-010 · boundaries and tipping	INI-SR01-CLI-04	tipping register	PUBLIC
FIN-011 · debt service	INI-SR01-FIN-05	debt–adaptation constraint	PUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathway	MSN-SR01-2027-01	Universe candidate	CONSORTIUM

Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
Class	Where it goes	Who can see it
PUBLIC	the published edition and its evidence bundle	anyone
CONSORTIUM	governed rooms of the federation	consortium members under agreement
CONTROLLED	need-to-know channels	named competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
Feed	Producer	Latency	Feeds into
Monthly climate bulletins	Copernicus Climate Change Service	monthly	CLI-001
ENSO outlooks	WMO and national centres	monthly	SCN-SR01-BBF-01
Global disaster alerts	GDACS (UN and European Commission)	near real time	FIN findings
Disease outbreak news	WHO	per event	health signals
Crop and market monitoring	FAO GIEWS · AMIS	monthly	RSK-SR01-FOO-001
Energy market reports	IEA	monthly	ENE findings
Catastrophe loss estimates	reinsurers and index providers	per event	FIN-002

Escalation routes

none · keep monitoring
research question
project
risk object
annual publication
signal report

Table 7.6Signals at baseline
ID	Signal	Corroboration	Systems	Route
SIG-SR01-001	Earth’s energy imbalance at a record high in 2025¹	CORROBORATED	CLI · all	tipping register P-04
SIG-SR01-002	Non-peak perils dominate insured losses²	CORROBORATED	FIN · CLI	protection-gap atlas P-02
SIG-SR01-003	Rapid growth in data-centre electricity demand⁵	PARTIAL	ENE · WAT · MIN	research question P-03

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, March 2026.back
2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back
5International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025.back

Global Polycrisis 2026
Chapter 8

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

6 min read0 figures5 tables18 notesNR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

8.1Common causes

A common cause stresses several systems at once. Warming is the clearest: one forcing that loads water, food, health and nature in the same years¹²⁴.

1.43°C

warming in 2025¹

6 of 9boundaries

transgressed²⁰

US$102trillion

public debt, 2024¹³

Table 8.1Evidence at baseline
Instance	Mechanism in action	Evidence	Status
Warming	1.43 °C in 2025 after a record 1.55 °C; stress on all five core systems	¹⁴¹	Reported
Energy prices	one price shock passes into food, fertiliser and household budgets	⁴	Inferred
Land-use change	drives biodiversity loss, emissions and zoonotic risk together	¹⁶¹⁷	Reported
Interest rates	a rise tightens every indebted budget at once	¹³	Inferred

Pathways in this mechanism

Warming loads water, food, health and nature together
One energy shock reaches food, fertiliser and budgets
Interest-rate rises tighten every indebted budget

Evidence to bind in 2027

Attribution of joint stress to each common cause
Timing of common shocks across regions

Related editions

GLB Global Systems
GS-01 Water
GS-03 Food
GS-05 Finance
SR-05 Fiscal resilience
SR-09 Planetary boundaries

8.2Domino effects

A domino effect carries a shock from one system to the next. Food and finance are the main channels at baseline.

673million

facing hunger, 2024⁷

123.2million

forcibly displaced, 2024¹²

116US$ bn

uninsured disaster losses, 2025²

Table 8.2Evidence at baseline
Instance	Mechanism in action	Evidence	Status
Drought → food → prices	breadbasket shortfalls transmitted through trade	²³	Reported
Disaster → budgets	uninsured losses become public and household debt	²¹³	Inferred
Prices → hunger	food-price rises cut diets in import-dependent households	⁷	Reported
Conflict → displacement	123.2 million forcibly displaced at the end of 2024	¹²	Reported

Pathways in this mechanism

Breadbasket shortfall → prices → hunger
Disaster → uninsured losses → public debt
Conflict → displacement → host-country strain

Evidence to bind in 2027

Speed of price transmission to households
Fiscal cost of disasters by country group

Related editions

GLB Global Systems
GS-01 Water
GS-03 Food
GS-05 Finance
SR-05 Fiscal resilience
SR-09 Planetary boundaries

8.3Inter-systemic feedbacks

Feedbacks make crises reinforce each other: debt slows recovery, slow recovery deepens vulnerability, and vulnerability raises the cost of the next shock.

3.4billion

where interest exceeds health or education¹³

US$187–359bn a year

adaptation finance gap⁴²

+167%

heat deaths of over-65s vs 1990s²⁶

Table 8.3Evidence at baseline
Instance	Mechanism in action	Evidence	Status
Debt–disaster loop	interest costs crowd out adaptation, raising future losses	¹³⁴²	Inferred
Hunger–conflict loop	food insecurity and conflict reinforce each other	⁷¹²	Inferred
Nature–climate loop	ecosystem loss weakens carbon and water regulation	¹⁶²⁰	Reported
Heat–health–labour loop	heat cuts work capacity and income	²⁶	Reported

Pathways in this mechanism

Debt slows recovery; slow recovery raises the next loss
Hunger and conflict reinforce each other
Nature loss weakens climate and water regulation

Evidence to bind in 2027

Recovery times after major disasters
Strength of the debt–disaster loop by region

Related editions

GLB Global Systems
GS-01 Water
GS-03 Food
GS-05 Finance
SR-05 Fiscal resilience
SR-09 Planetary boundaries

8.4Shared vulnerabilities

Entanglement is worst where buffers are thinnest. Fiscal space, insurance cover and social protection decide whether a shock stays contained.

48%

of 2025 disaster losses insured²

52.4%

covered by social protection⁴⁴

108countries

with multi-hazard early warning³⁵

Table 8.4Evidence at baseline
Instance	Mechanism in action	Evidence	Status
Fiscal space	3.4 billion people where interest exceeds health or education spending	¹³	Reported
Insurance	about half of 2025 losses uninsured; about 12% insured in Asia	²	Reported
Social protection	52.4% of people covered by at least one benefit	⁴⁴	Reported
Early warning	108 countries with multi-hazard systems in 2024	³⁵	Reported

Pathways in this mechanism

Thin buffers turn shocks into crises
Where insurance, protection and warning are all thin, losses compound
Buffers bought before the shock cost least

Evidence to bind in 2027

Overlap of hazard, debt and thin cover
Tested performance of buffers in real events

Related editions

GLB Global Systems
GS-01 Water
GS-03 Food
GS-05 Finance
SR-05 Fiscal resilience
SR-09 Planetary boundaries

8.5Thresholds and tipping

Some couplings change character past a threshold. Planetary boundaries and tipping systems mark where gradual stress can become abrupt change.

6 of 9boundaries

transgressed, 2023²⁰

5systems

tipping at risk at current warming²¹

record2025

Earth energy imbalance¹

Table 8.5Evidence at baseline
Instance	Mechanism in action	Evidence	Status
Planetary boundaries	six of nine assessed as transgressed in 2023	²⁰	Reported
Tipping systems	five major systems at risk at current warming	²¹	Reported
Safe and just limits	boundaries defined for people as well as the planet	⁴⁷	Reported
Energy imbalance	record high in 2025; the system is still gaining heat	¹	Reported

Pathways in this mechanism

Gradual stress can become abrupt change
Some tipping systems interact and may cascade
Thresholds shrink the time available to respond

Evidence to bind in 2027

Early-warning indicators for each tipping system
Interactions between tipping systems

Related editions

GLB Global Systems
GS-01 Water
GS-03 Food
GS-05 Finance
SR-05 Fiscal resilience
SR-09 Planetary boundaries

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, March 2026.back
20K. Richardson, W. Steffen, W. Lucht et al., “Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries,” Science Advances, vol. 9, eadh2458, 2023.back
13UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2025: It Is Time for Reform. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025.back
41WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2024, WMO-No. 1368. WMO, Geneva, 2025.back
4International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
16P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 back
17K. O’Brien, L. Garibaldi and A. Agrawal (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Underlying Causes of Biodiversity Loss and the Determinants of Transformative Change. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024.back
24M. Lawrence, T. Homer-Dixon, S. Janzwood, J. Rockström, O. Renn and J. F. Donges, “Global polycrisis: the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement,” Global Sustainability, vol. 7, e6, 2024.back
7FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025.back
12UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2024. UNHCR, Copenhagen, June 2025.back
2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back
23F. Gaupp, J. Hall, S. Hochrainer-Stigler and S. Dadson, “Changing risks of simultaneous global breadbasket failure,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 10, pp. 54–57, 2020.back
42UNEP (ed.), Adaptation Gap Report 2024: Come Hell and High Water. UNEP, Nairobi, 2024.back
26M. Romanello et al., “The 2024 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change,” The Lancet, vol. 404, pp. 1847–1896, 2024.back
44International Labour Organization (ed.), World Social Protection Report 2024–26: Universal Social Protection for Climate Action and a Just Transition. ILO, Geneva, 2024.back
35WMO and UNDRR (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2024. WMO and UNDRR, Geneva, 2024.back
21T. M. Lenton, D. I. Armstrong McKay, S. Loriani et al. (eds.), The Global Tipping Points Report 2023. University of Exeter, Exeter, 2023.back
47J. Rockström, J. Gupta, D. Qin et al., “Safe and just Earth system boundaries,” Nature, vol. 619, pp. 102–111, 2023.back

Global Polycrisis 2026
Annex A

Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

9 min read0 figures12 tables6 notesNR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.	Derivation	Calculation	Result
(1)	Insured share of 2025 losses	108 ÷ 224	≈ 48%
(2)	Uninsured 2025 losses	224 − 108	US$116 bn
(3)	Insured share in Asia	9 ÷ 73	≈ 12%
(4)	Insured share in North America	93 ÷ 133	≈ 70%

Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
Strength	Definition
STRONG	a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region
MODERATE	an effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAK	an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale

Table A.3Status grammar
Label	Rule
Reported	value as issued by its source, with year
Inferred	reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
Estimated	Nexus analytical value with stated method
Scenario	conditional on stated assumptions
Expert input	structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card, Polycrisis System Model v0

Model ID: MDL-SR01-POLYCRISIS · v0.1
Purpose: represent the world as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers
Family: graph-based system of systems
Inputs: the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method: expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
Validation: none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
Uncertainty: qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity: global scale; not for country, regional or asset-level use
Reproducibility: strength table and sources published in this edition

20couplings

typed in v0

11strong

documented within one season

5moderate

documented, buffered

4weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID: DC-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-B0
Type: baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy: pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned: 47 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references
Model runs: none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest: computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes: nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by: the 2027 polycrisis annual cut

Lineage

01
source edition
02
pinned citation
03
finding
04
page
05
publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
Element	Baseline 2026	2027 global annual
Sources	cited global publications, pinned by edition	national, regional and sector cuts through one graph
Analysis	stated methods and editorial estimates	typed analysis specifications
Models	Polycrisis System Model v0 specification	model runs with receipts
Findings	twelve baseline findings	findings re-bound to federation evidence
Review	five passes scheduled	five passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
Indicator	Observed	Released	Cadence	Next release
Global mean temperature	2025	Mar 2026	annual	Mar 2027
Natural-disaster losses	2025	Jan 2026	annual	Jan 2027
Total GHG emissions	2023	Oct 2024	annual	annual
Energy-related CO₂	2024	Mar 2025	annual	annual
Hunger and food insecurity	2024	Jul 2025	annual	annual
Safely managed water	2022	Jul 2023	biennial	biennial
Air-pollution deaths	2019–2020	periodic	periodic	next WHO update
Wildlife population index	1970–2020	Oct 2024	biennial	2026 edition
Forced displacement	2024	Jun 2025	annual	annual
Public debt	2024	2025	annual	annual

Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
System	Coverage	Thinnest dimension
Climate forcing	GOOD	regional extremes and tipping proximity
Energy	GOOD	compute demand and water use
Finance	GOOD	losses in low-income regions
Food	GOOD	concurrency of shortfalls
Water	PARTIAL	groundwater and basin stress
Health	PARTIAL	heat mortality outside high-income regions
Biodiversity	PARTIAL	ecosystem condition beyond protected areas
Digital and cyber	THIN	dependency mapping

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Issued by the World Meteorological Organization from nine international temperature datasets and contributions from national meteorological services, regional climate centres and UN partners. Annual, released each March. Role: binds CLI-001 and the record ocean-heat and energy-imbalance signals.

EVD-SR01-001

State of the Global Climate 2025¹

Issued by Munich Re from its global natural-disaster loss database, maintained since 1980. Overall and insured losses with fatalities, by peril and region; 10- and 30-year inflation-adjusted averages. Role: binds FIN-002 and FIN-003.

EVD-SR01-002

NatCatSERVICE 2025 full-year figures²

Table A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
Dimension	EVD-SR01-001	EVD-SR01-002
Completeness	near-global; gaps filled statistically	reported and estimated losses
Timeliness	about three months after the year	weeks after the year
Revision	datasets revised as records improve	event estimates revised
Method transparency	datasets and methods published	summary methodology published
External validation	multiple independent datasets	compared with other loss providers

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

SOFI 2025⁷, hunger estimation and uncertainty
JMP⁸, water and sanitation service ladders
Living Planet Index⁹, population trend method
A World of Debt¹³, interest and social spending comparisons

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.8Publication acceptance record
Group	Area	Items	Pass	N/A	Pending
D1	Identity and scope	8	8	0	0
D2	Source and data	12	9	1	2
D3	Analysis and models	12	3	8	1
D4	Findings and claims	9	8	0	1
D5	Figures, tables, maps	10	6	2	2
D6	Editorial and citations	10	8	0	2
D7	Review and approval	13	0	0	13
D8	Artefact and design	12	7	0	5
D9	Registry and release	9	0	0	9

Publication gate

Conditions met: 14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems: none recorded
Open conditions: reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs: first runs in Q1 2027
Maps: plates in Q2 2027
Waivers: none

A.7Status words

Table A.9The status every value carries
Status	What it means
Observed	Measured directly and published by the source.
Reported	Published statistics of an official or institutional source.
Declared	Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
Estimated	A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
Modelled	Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.
Inferred	Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
Forecast	A projection by the cited source.
Simulated	A simulation result under stated assumptions.
Scenario	A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert input	Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.
Candidate	Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Evidence arrives from the pillars	Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealed	On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembled	The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turn	At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opens	A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and deposited	The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on five sites	Only then do the five Reports sites show the edition as published, each reading it through its own lens.
08 Corrections go to Standards	Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.10Series terms
Term	Meaning
Baseline Edition	the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+B	water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Coupling	a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gap	the share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladder	LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQL	evidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cut	a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWG	National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups

Table A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
Abbreviation	Expansion
AMIS	Agricultural Market Information System
BBNJ	Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction (High Seas Agreement)
C3S	Copernicus Climate Change Service
ENSO	El Niño–Southern Oscillation
GAR	Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction
GDACS	Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System
GIEWS	Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture
IHR	International Health Regulations (2005)
IPBES	Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services
IPCC	Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
ISSB	International Sustainability Standards Board
JMP	WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme
SOFI	The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World
WMO	World Meteorological Organization

A.10Technical annex

Table A.12Technical annex
Item	Annex	Contents	Status
A.1	Indicator definitions	the global indicator set, with units and sources	IN THIS EDITION
A.2	Coupling strengths	the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale	IN THIS EDITION
A.3	Scenario specification	SCN-SR01-BBF-01 assumptions and signposts	IN THIS EDITION
A.4	Capability placements	rung evidence for fifteen functions	IN THIS EDITION
A.5	Model diagnostics	first runs and validation	2027
A.6	Sensitivity analyses	influence of coupling strengths	2027
A.7	Regional notes	regional baseline cards	WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS
A.8	Review statements	pass-by-pass review record	AT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition, global mean near-surface temperature

Construct: annual global mean near-surface air temperature anomaly
Unit: °C relative to 1850–1900
Method: synthesis of nine international datasets
Source: WMO State of the Global Climate 2025¹
Uncertainty: ±0.13 °C (90% range)
Known limits: a single year above 1.5 °C does not mean the Paris limit is passed

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, March 2026.back
2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back
7FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025.back
8WHO and UNICEF (eds.), Progress on Household Drinking Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 2000–2022. Joint Monitoring Programme, New York and Geneva, 2023.back
9WWF (ed.), Living Planet Report 2024: A System in Peril. WWF, Gland, 2024.back
13UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2025: It Is Time for Reform. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025.back

Global Polycrisis 2026
Annex B

Data appendix

The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

8 min read0 figures8 tables21 notesNR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

B.1The indicator set

Table B.1Global baseline indicator set
Indicator	Value	Unit	Year	State	Source
Global mean temperature above 1850–1900	1.43	°C	2025	Reported	¹
Record year temperature	1.55	°C	2024	Reported	⁴¹
Three-year average temperature	1.48	°C	2023–2025	Reported	⁴⁰
CO₂ concentration	423.9	ppm	2024	Reported	¹
Total GHG emissions	57.1	Gt CO₂e	2023	Reported	³
Energy-related CO₂	37.8	Gt CO₂	2024	Reported	⁴
Data-centre electricity use	≈415	TWh	2024	Reported	⁵
Natural-disaster losses	224	US$ billion	2025	Reported	²
Insured disaster losses	108	US$ billion	2025	Reported	²
Disaster deaths	17,200	deaths	2025	Reported	²
People facing hunger	673	million	2024	Reported	⁷
Without safely managed water	2.2	billion	2022	Reported	⁸
Air-pollution deaths	6.7	million a year	2019–2020	Reported	¹⁴
Wildlife population change	−73	%	1970–2020	Reported	⁹
Protected land · ocean	17.6 · 8.4	%	2024	Reported	¹⁰
Population	8.2	billion	2024	Reported	¹¹
Forcibly displaced	123.2	million	2024	Reported	¹²
Public debt	102	US$ trillion	2024	Reported	¹³
Covered by social protection	52.4	%	2023	Reported	⁴⁴

Indicators, CSV Indicators, JSON

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

Table B.3Global source register
Source	Category	Coverage	Period	Cadence	Role
State of the Global Climate¹	UN technical body	global	1850–2025	annual	CLI
NatCatSERVICE²	industry	global	1980–2025	annual	FIN
Emissions Gap Report³	UN programme	global	1990–2023	annual	CLI · ENE
Global Energy Review⁴	intergovernmental	global	2024	annual	ENE
SOFI 2025⁷	UN agencies	global	2024	annual	FOO
JMP⁸	UN agencies	global	2000–2022	biennial	WAT · HLT
Living Planet Report⁹	civil society	global	1970–2020	biennial	BIO
World Population Prospects¹¹	UN statistics	global	1950–2100	biennial	profile
Global Trends¹²	UN agency	global	2024	annual	development
A World of Debt¹³	UN agency	global	2024	annual	FIN
Air-quality data¹⁴	UN agency	global	2019–2020	periodic	HLT
Critical Minerals Outlook³⁶	intergovernmental	global	2024	annual	MIN

B.3Regional reading, ten regional clusters

Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form, and ranks no region.

Table B.4Regional reading, ten regional clusters
Region	Principal hazards	Systems most exposed	Baseline evidence
North America	wildfire, severe storms, hurricanes, heat	insurance, power, housing	2025 losses²
South America	drought, flood, fire	hydropower, agriculture, forests	regional assessments¹⁵
Europe	heat, flood, drought, wildfire	health, energy, agriculture	2025 losses²
Eurasia	heat, drought, permafrost thaw	agriculture, infrastructure	assessments¹⁵
Middle East and North Africa	extreme heat, water scarcity	water, food imports, health	water reports³⁸
Africa	drought, flood, heat	food, health, livelihoods	losses largely uninsured²
South Asia	heat, monsoon floods, cyclones	health, labour, agriculture	heat–health²⁶
East Asia	typhoons, floods, heat	manufacturing, cities, power	2025 losses²
ASEAN	typhoons, floods, sea-level rise	coasts, agriculture, supply chains	assessments¹⁵
Oceania-Pacific	cyclones, floods, sea-level rise	small islands, coasts, insurance	assessments¹⁵

B.4Regional card, South Asia

region
basin
monsoon system
corridor

Systems in view: health, labour, water, food, energy
Defining hazards: extreme heat before the monsoon; monsoon floods; cyclones on the Bay of Bengal
Couplings: CLI → HLT heat; WAT → FOO monsoon-fed agriculture; ENE → HLT cooling demand
Capability evidence: cyclone early warning credited with large falls in deaths over recent decades³⁵
Gaps: heat mortality and labour-loss data; groundwater depletion
Agenda items: P-06 · P-07

Pre-monsoon heat is the region’s leading climate–health exposure, falling hardest on outdoor workers and people without cooling [26].

HEALTH

Heat and work

Agriculture depends on monsoon timing and groundwater; a late or weak monsoon couples water, food prices and rural incomes [38].

WATER AND FOOD

The monsoon as infrastructure

Cyclone warning and evacuation along the Bay of Bengal is among the clearest cases of early warning saving lives at scale [35].

EARLY WARNING

A demonstrated capability

B.5How countries appear in the global edition

Countries enter the global edition through their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.

Table B.5How countries appear in the global edition
Card field	What it shows	Source
WEFH+B state	each core system against peer distribution bands	national edition
Couplings	the national dependency matrix	national edition
Risk objects	the national risk portfolio	national edition
Capability rungs	the national capability ladder	national edition
Evidence age	oldest and newest source dates	national source register

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

26national

countries and unions

10regional

clusters

16global

flagship and sector

14strategic

systems reports

20frontier

technology reports

How to read a country card

Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such

Table B.6National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme
Wave	Countries and unions	State
W0	Canada	ISSUED
W1	United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, Switzerland	PLANNED
W2	Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Türkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Australia	PLANNED

B.6Licences

Table B.7Licences of each kind of material
Material	Licence
Text	CC BY 4.0
Data	on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0
Figures	Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited
Maps	boundary source and licence printed on each plate
Metadata	CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it
Third-party data, figures and text	The source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed
Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.

B.7Formats and provenance

Table B.8This edition in every format
Format	Kind	State	What it is	Identifier
Web edition	HTML	On this site	Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.	NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Print edition	PDF	At release	A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.	NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Indicator data	CSV · JSON	On this site	19 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.	NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1
Figures	SVG · PNG	On this site	4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.	FIG-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-*
Slides	PDF	Not recorded	No slide deck is recorded for this edition.
Evidence brief	HTML · PDF	Not recorded	No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
Dataset with DOI	DataCite	At release	Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

Provenance

Edition pack: The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
Evidence cut: DC-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026
Reproducibility: sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Self-check: 14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
Review: five passes scheduled before release
Publisher of record: GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Corrections: Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, March 2026.back
41WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2024, WMO-No. 1368. WMO, Geneva, 2025.back
40WMO (ed.), “WMO confirms 2025 was one of warmest years on record.” Press release. WMO, Geneva, January 2026.back
3UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please! UNEP, Nairobi, 2024.back
4International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
5International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back
7FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025.back
8WHO and UNICEF (eds.), Progress on Household Drinking Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 2000–2022. Joint Monitoring Programme, New York and Geneva, 2023.back
14World Health Organization (ed.), “Ambient (outdoor) air pollution” and “Household air pollution” fact sheets. WHO, Geneva, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
9WWF (ed.), Living Planet Report 2024: A System in Peril. WWF, Gland, 2024.back
10UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet Report 2024. UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, Cambridge and Gland, 2024.back
11UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results. United Nations, New York, 2024.back
12UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2024. UNHCR, Copenhagen, June 2025.back
13UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2025: It Is Time for Reform. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025.back
44International Labour Organization (ed.), World Social Protection Report 2024–26: Universal Social Protection for Climate Action and a Just Transition. ILO, Geneva, 2024.back
36International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
15H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.back
38UNESCO World Water Assessment Programme (ed.), The United Nations World Water Development Report 2024: Water for Prosperity and Peace. UNESCO, Paris, 2024.back
26M. Romanello et al., “The 2024 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change,” The Lancet, vol. 404, pp. 1847–1896, 2024.back
35WMO and UNDRR (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2024. WMO and UNDRR, Geneva, 2024.back

Global Polycrisis 2026
Annex C

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

11 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

C.148 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, March 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
3UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please! UNEP, Nairobi, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
4International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
5International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 7
6Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2025. Ember, London, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 6
7FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
8WHO and UNICEF (eds.), Progress on Household Drinking Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 2000–2022. Joint Monitoring Programme, New York and Geneva, 2023. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
9WWF (ed.), Living Planet Report 2024: A System in Peril. WWF, Gland, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
10UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet Report 2024. UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, Cambridge and Gland, 2024. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
11UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results. United Nations, New York, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 6
12UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2024. UNHCR, Copenhagen, June 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
13UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2025: It Is Time for Reform. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
14World Health Organization (ed.), “Ambient (outdoor) air pollution” and “Household air pollution” fact sheets. WHO, Geneva, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
15H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
16P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
17K. O’Brien, L. Garibaldi and A. Agrawal (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Underlying Causes of Biodiversity Loss and the Determinants of Transformative Change. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
18UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays. UNDRR, Geneva, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
19World Economic Forum (ed.), Global Risks Report 2026, 21st edition. WEF, Cologny/Geneva, 2026.
20K. Richardson, W. Steffen, W. Lucht et al., “Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries,” Science Advances, vol. 9, eadh2458, 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
21T. M. Lenton, D. I. Armstrong McKay, S. Loriani et al. (eds.), The Global Tipping Points Report 2023. University of Exeter, Exeter, 2023. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
22J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Cited in chapter 6
23F. Gaupp, J. Hall, S. Hochrainer-Stigler and S. Dadson, “Changing risks of simultaneous global breadbasket failure,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 10, pp. 54–57, 2020. Cited in the summary, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
24M. Lawrence, T. Homer-Dixon, S. Janzwood, J. Rockström, O. Renn and J. F. Donges, “Global polycrisis: the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement,” Global Sustainability, vol. 7, e6, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
25S. V. Buldyrev, R. Parshani, G. Paul, H. E. Stanley and S. Havlin, “Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks,” Nature, vol. 464, pp. 1025–1028, 2010.
26M. Romanello et al., “The 2024 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change,” The Lancet, vol. 404, pp. 1847–1896, 2024. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
27World Health Assembly (ed.), WHO Pandemic Agreement, resolution WHA78.1. WHO, Geneva, May 2025. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
28World Health Assembly (ed.), Amendments to the International Health Regulations (2005), resolution WHA77.17. WHO, Geneva, June 2024. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
29UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
30Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
31UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
32United Nations (ed.), Agreement under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea on the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Marine Biological Diversity of Areas beyond National Jurisdiction. United Nations, New York, 2023. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
33International Sustainability Standards Board (ed.), IFRS S1 General Requirements and IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures. IFRS Foundation, London, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
34European Parliament and Council of the European Union (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 (Artificial Intelligence Act). Official Journal L, 12 July 2024, as amended. Cited in chapter 6
35WMO and UNDRR (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2024. WMO and UNDRR, Geneva, 2024. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 8
36International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6
37Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (ed.), Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2025. Stanford HAI, Stanford, 2025. Cited in chapter 3
38UNESCO World Water Assessment Programme (ed.), The United Nations World Water Development Report 2024: Water for Prosperity and Peace. UNESCO, Paris, 2024.
39Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2024. ECMWF, Reading, January 2025. Cited in chapter 4
40WMO (ed.), “WMO confirms 2025 was one of warmest years on record.” Press release. WMO, Geneva, January 2026. Cited in the summary
41WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2024, WMO-No. 1368. WMO, Geneva, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 6, chapter 8
42UNEP (ed.), Adaptation Gap Report 2024: Come Hell and High Water. UNEP, Nairobi, 2024. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
43World Bank Group (ed.), Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report 2024: Pathways Out of the Polycrisis. World Bank, Washington, DC, 2024.
44International Labour Organization (ed.), World Social Protection Report 2024–26: Universal Social Protection for Climate Action and a Just Transition. ILO, Geneva, 2024. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
45S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports, The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
46S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Canada Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0.
47J. Rockström, J. Gupta, D. Qin et al., “Safe and just Earth system boundaries,” Nature, vol. 619, pp. 102–111, 2023. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
48World Bank Group (ed.), Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report 2024: Pathways Out of the Polycrisis, extreme-poverty estimates. World Bank, Washington, DC, 2024.

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title: Strategic Systems Report 2026, Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk, Baseline Edition
Series: Reports · Strategic Systems Series SR-01
Edition: Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version: v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID: NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close: 30 September 2026
Publication date: October 2026
DOI: concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place: Toronto
Editor: Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards: GCRI · technical truth · GRF · public meaning · GRA · capital meaning
Licence: text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Language: English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence: Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format: A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces: Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard: Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility: tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production: Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
Step	What happens	When
Draft	editorial self-check complete at evidence close	October 2026
Steward review	five passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)	Q4 2026
Approval	publication authority approves the exact digest	before release
Deposit	concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set	at release
Succession	the 2027 polycrisis edition reports changes against this baseline	2027

Current version: v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition: none, first edition of the series
Next edition: NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0

Latest version: resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route: Registry correction pathway
Notice types: erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

Edition	Version	Date	State	Change	Notice
SR-01	NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0	October 2026	Draft	Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,	None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID: NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Series alias: NR-STR-SR-01-2026-BL
DOI: Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions: Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle: RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID: Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR: Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account: None needed to contribute; never a password

Find and follow

Search the open indexes for Global Polycrisis; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.

Mirrors and harvest

The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.

InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on Global Polycrisis, prefilled from this page

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
SR-01 edition Reports Global Polycrisis 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; SR-01 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

Handoff	Between	What crosses, and when
F03	Foundry to Reports	Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04	Universe to Reports	After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05	Foundry to Reports	National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Ring	Nexus Standards to Reports	Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06	Reports to Nexus Standards	Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12	Reports to Universe	Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Ring	Reports to Risk Academy	Risk Academy: taught in the open.

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

S.3Headline finding

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

Technical Truth

Public Meaning

Capital Meaning

Synthesis

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

What it is not

What comes next

Notes

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

In this part

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

Transmission paths

1.4Reinforcing loops

Notes

2.1Headline finding

Implication

What would move it

2.2Climate forcing

2.3Finance

2.4Energy

2.5Food

2.6Water

2.7Health

2.8Biodiversity

2.9Systemic

Notes

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

People without safely managed drinking water

Energy-related CO₂ emissions

People facing hunger

Deaths each year from ambient and household air pollution

Average decline of monitored wildlife populations

Natural-disaster losses · insured

3.2Domain posture

3.3Sector screens

Notes

4.1Risk objects

Concurrent breadbasket shortfall

Uninsured losses where cover is thin

Concentration in critical-mineral refining

Crossing of Earth-system tipping points

4.2Capability ladder

Notes

5.1Assumptions

5.2The cascade, step by step

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

Notes

6.1Three lenses

Technical Truth

Public Meaning

Capital Meaning

Synthesis

6.2GCRI reading: the model card

6.3Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

6.4Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 polycrisis readiness pack

Publication dispositions

6.5Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Changed since 2024

To watch in 2027

6.6Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

Review protocol

Where the evidence agrees

Where it is unsettled

Notes

7.1Questions for the operational series

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

7.3The pathway

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the polycrisis candidate mission