Systems and sectors at baseline

5 min read0 figures2 tables16 notesNR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

People without safely managed drinking water

2.2billion

3.5 billion lacked safely managed sanitation in the same year.

Reported2022WHO/UNICEF JMP⁸

ENE · Energy

Energy-related CO₂ emissions

37.8Gt CO₂

A record high, up 0.8% on 2023, as demand grew faster than clean supply.

Reported2024IEA⁴

FOO · Food

People facing hunger

673million

About 8.2% of the world population; 2.3 billion were moderately or severely food insecure.

Reported2024SOFI 2025⁷

HLT · Health

Deaths each year from ambient and household air pollution

6.7million

Air pollution couples energy, cities and health more directly than any other pathway.

Reported2019–2020WHO¹⁴

BIO · Biodiversity

Average decline of monitored wildlife populations

−73%

1970–2020. 17.6% of land and 8.4% of the ocean are protected, against 30% by 2030.

Reported1970–2020WWF⁹ ·¹⁰

SYS · Cross-system

Natural-disaster losses · insured

224 · 108US$ bn

The sixth year above US$100 billion insured; floods, storms and fires dominated.

Reported2025Munich Re²

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The reading states where the global evidence points; the coupling column names the dependency that carries risk across systems and borders.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
Domain	Posture at baseline	Coupling	Status
WAT	2.2 billion people without safely managed drinking water; basin stress concentrated in arid and fast-growing regions.	WAT → FOO irrigation · WAT → ENE cooling	Reported EQL 4
ENE	Record energy CO₂ in 2024; clean power at about 41% of electricity; demand rising with cooling and compute.	ENE ↔ WAT · ENE → FOO inputs	Reported EQL 5
FOO	673 million people facing hunger; production concentrated in a few breadbaskets and exporters.	FOO ← WAT, ENE · FOO → TRD	Reported EQL 4
HLT	Air pollution and heat are the leading environmental health burdens; One Health risks persist.	HLT ← CLI, ENE, BIO	Reported EQL 4
BIO	Wildlife populations down 73% since 1970; protection below 30% targets on land and sea.	BIO → WAT, FOO · BIO ← land use	Reported EQL 4
CLI	1.43 °C in 2025 after a record 1.55 °C; energy imbalance at a record high.	forcing on all five systems	Reported EQL 5
INF	Chokepoints in shipping, power and data networks concentrate exposure.	INF → TRD, ENE, FOO	Inferred EQL 3
FIN	Insured losses above US$100 billion for six years; about half of losses uninsured; debt constrains response.	FIN ← CLI · FIN → sovereigns	Reported EQL 4
DAT	Cloud, cable and satellite dependencies are concentrated and only partly mapped.	DAT → ENE, FIN, HLT	Expert input EQL 2
AIC	Data centres used about 415 TWh in 2024; use projected to roughly double by 2030.	AIC → ENE, WAT, MIN	Reported EQL 3
MIN	Refining of key energy minerals concentrated: the top three refiners average about 86%.	MIN → ENE transition, AIC	Reported EQL 3
TRD	Trade fragmentation and export restrictions raise transmission risk for food and minerals.	TRD → all systems	Inferred EQL 3

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen global sectors are screened on the same grammar as every national edition, so later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
Code	Sector	Baseline evidence	Exposure to watch	Evidence coverage
GS-00	Cross-system	entangled crises; six of nine boundaries transgressed²⁰	compound and cascading shocks	PARTIAL
GS-01	Water	2.2 billion without safely managed water⁸	drought and flood extremes	GOOD
GS-02	Energy	record CO₂; about 41% clean power⁴⁶	heat demand; mineral concentration	GOOD
GS-03	Food and agrifood	673 million facing hunger⁷	concurrent breadbasket failure	GOOD
GS-04	Health	6.7 million air-pollution deaths a year¹⁴	heat, pandemics, antimicrobial resistance	PARTIAL
GS-05	Finance and economy	US$102 trillion public debt¹³	debt distress after disasters	GOOD
GS-06	Development	123.2 million forcibly displaced¹²	conflict–climate compounding	PARTIAL
GS-07	Climate	1.43 °C in 2025¹	extremes and tipping risk	GOOD
GS-08	Disaster	US$224 billion losses in 2025²	frequency of medium events	GOOD
GS-09	Infrastructure	chokepoint concentration	shipping, power and cable outages	PARTIAL
GS-10	Cities	most people now live in cities¹¹	urban heat and flooding	PARTIAL
GS-11	Biodiversity	−73% wildlife populations⁹	land-use change and fire	GOOD
GS-12	Earth observation	strong global observing systems	continuity of key missions	PARTIAL
GS-13	Cyber and digital	concentrated cloud and network dependence	systemic outages	THIN
GS-14	Policy and institutions	new pandemic and ocean agreements²⁷³²	implementation and finance gaps	PARTIAL
GS-15	Science and engineering	deep research base; AI adoption rising³⁷	translation and dual use	THIN

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

8WHO and UNICEF (eds.), Progress on Household Drinking Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 2000–2022. Joint Monitoring Programme, New York and Geneva, 2023.back
4International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
7FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025.back
14World Health Organization (ed.), “Ambient (outdoor) air pollution” and “Household air pollution” fact sheets. WHO, Geneva, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
9WWF (ed.), Living Planet Report 2024: A System in Peril. WWF, Gland, 2024.back
10UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet Report 2024. UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, Cambridge and Gland, 2024.back
2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back
20K. Richardson, W. Steffen, W. Lucht et al., “Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries,” Science Advances, vol. 9, eadh2458, 2023.back
6Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2025. Ember, London, 2025.back
13UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2025: It Is Time for Reform. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025.back
12UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2024. UNHCR, Copenhagen, June 2025.back
1WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, March 2026.back
11UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results. United Nations, New York, 2024.back
27World Health Assembly (ed.), WHO Pandemic Agreement, resolution WHA78.1. WHO, Geneva, May 2025.back
32United Nations (ed.), Agreement under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea on the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Marine Biological Diversity of Areas beyond National Jurisdiction. United Nations, New York, 2023.back
37Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (ed.), Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2025. Stanford HAI, Stanford, 2025.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

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