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Nexus Reports · The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation · Baseline Edition 2026
Nexus Strategic Systems Report · SR-01
How crises become entangled, common causes, domino effects and feedbacks across climate, food, energy, finance, health and conflict, at the 2026 baseline
The record
About this edition
The first annual edition of the polycrisis report. It fixes the 2026 reference state of entangled global risk, and the model, voice and positions, against which the 2027 edition and every strategic report will be read.
What this edition is
A question-led baseline: how crises in climate, food, energy, finance, health and conflict become entangled through common causes, domino effects and feedbacks. It reads the same global evidence as the global edition, through the mechanisms that connect it.
What it is not
Not a list of crises, a prediction of collapse, a ranking of threats or countries, or a policy recommendation. It states where the scientific community disagrees before stating what this edition concludes.
What comes next
National, regional and sector evidence binds each mechanism in 2027. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.
Abstract and decision surface
Abstract
The world in 2026 faces crises that are entangled rather than additive. Researchers identify three causal mechanisms: common causes that stress several systems at once, domino effects that carry a shock from one system to the next, and feedbacks between systems that amplify both [24]. The 2026 evidence shows all three. Warming at 1.43 °C in 2025, after a record 1.55 °C in 2024, is a common cause across water, food, health and nature [1]. Natural-disaster losses of US$224 billion in 2025, half of them uninsured, move through household balance sheets and public budgets [2], where 3.4 billion people already live in countries that spend more on interest than on health or education [13]. About 673 million people faced hunger in 2024 [7] and 123.2 million were forcibly displaced [12]. Six of nine planetary boundaries are transgressed [20]. This Baseline Edition maps the mechanisms, fixes the reference state, and sets the questions the 2027 edition will test. It forecasts no collapse and ranks no threat.
Headline finding
Insurers covered about 48% of the US$224 billion in natural-disaster losses in 2025, about 70% in North America, about half in Europe, about 12% in Asia and under a fifth in Africa.
Source: Munich Re NatCatSERVICE 2025 [2]; the uninsured share is the difference between overall and insured losses.
Implication
The protection gap is widest where exposure is growing fastest and fiscal space is thinnest. Uninsured losses become household debt, delayed reconstruction and pressure on public budgets, which feed back into vulnerability before the next event [2] [13] [18].
At a glance
Six readings that frame the global baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
How warm is the world?
1.43 °C above 1850–1900 in 2025, after a record 1.55 °C in 2024; 2023–2025 averaged 1.48 °C. [1] [40]
REPORTED
Are disaster losses rising?
Insured losses exceeded US$100 billion for the sixth year running; 2025 losses were driven by floods, storms and wildfires. [2]
REPORTED
Who carries the losses?
Half of 2025 losses were uninsured; in Asia almost nine-tenths were. [2]
REPORTED
Are emissions falling?
No: energy CO₂ set a record in 2024, although clean power supplied about 41% of electricity. [4] [6]
REPORTED
Is the food system stable?
673 million people faced hunger in 2024; concurrent breadbasket failure is a rising tail risk. [7] [23]
REPORTED
How fast is nature changing?
Wildlife populations fell by 73% on average from 1970 to 2020; six of nine planetary boundaries are transgressed. [9] [20]
REPORTED
What constrains the response?
Debt service: 3.4 billion people live where interest outweighs health or education spending. [13]
REPORTED
What will 2027 test first?
A concurrent breadbasket shortfall coinciding with an energy and fertiliser price shock. SCN-SR01-BBF-01
EXPERT INPUT
Systems dashboard
WATWater
People without safely managed drinking water
2.2billion
3.5 billion lacked safely managed sanitation in the same year.
REPORTED2022WHO/UNICEF JMP [8]
ENEEnergy
Energy-related CO₂ emissions
37.8Gt CO₂
A record high, up 0.8% on 2023, as demand grew faster than clean supply.
REPORTED2024IEA [4]
FOOFood
People facing hunger
673million
About 8.2% of the world population; 2.3 billion were moderately or severely food insecure.
REPORTED2024SOFI 2025 [7]
HLTHealth
Deaths each year from ambient and household air pollution
6.7million
Air pollution couples energy, cities and health more directly than any other pathway.
REPORTED2019–2020WHO [14]
BIOBiodiversity
Average decline of monitored wildlife populations
−73%
1970–2020. 17.6% of land and 8.4% of the ocean are protected, against 30% by 2030.
SYSCross-system
Natural-disaster losses · insured
224 · 108US$ bn
The sixth year above US$100 billion insured; floods, storms and fires dominated.
REPORTED2025Munich Re [2]
Key findings
Twelve findings carry the global baseline. They are grouped by system and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.
CLIClimate forcing
FINFinance
Natural disasters caused US$224 billion in losses in 2025, of which US$108 billion (48%) was insured. [2]
Insured shares differ sharply by region: about 70% in North America, about half in Europe, about 12% in Asia and under a fifth in Africa (2025). [2]
Public debt reached US$102 trillion in 2024; 3.4 billion people live in countries that spend more on interest than on health or education. [13]
ENEEnergy
FOOFood
About 673 million people faced hunger in 2024, and 2.3 billion were moderately or severely food insecure. [7]
WATWater
2.2 billion people lacked safely managed drinking water and 3.5 billion lacked safely managed sanitation in 2022. [8]
HLTHealth
Ambient and household air pollution together cause about 6.7 million deaths a year. [14]
BIOBiodiversity
SYSSystemic
The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a concurrent breadbasket shortfall coinciding with an energy and fertiliser price shock. § scenario
Part I · lead chapter
Polycrisis is often used as a mood. This edition uses it as a model. Lawrence and co-authors define three mechanisms through which crises become entangled: common causes that stress several systems at once, domino effects that carry a shock from one system to the next, and inter-systemic feedbacks that amplify both [24]. Each can be observed, and each can be tested.
The forcing layer is moving fast. 2024 was the warmest year on record at 1.55 °C above the late nineteenth century, and 2025 the second or third warmest at 1.43 °C; the eleven years 2015–2025 are the eleven warmest observed. Earth’s energy imbalance and ocean heat content reached record highs in 2025, which means the system is still gaining heat [1].
Losses follow, but unevenly. Natural disasters caused US$224 billion in losses in 2025, and insured losses exceeded US$100 billion for the sixth year running. No major hurricane struck the United States mainland; the total was driven by floods, severe storms and wildfires, led by the Los Angeles fires at about US$53 billion [2]. Frequency, not one peak event, now sets the global loss record.
Who pays depends on where the hazard lands. Insurers covered about 70% of losses in North America but about 12% in Asia and under a fifth in Africa [2]. Where cover is thin, losses fall on households and on public budgets that are already stretched: 3.4 billion people live in countries that spend more on interest than on health or education [13].
Beneath the losses, the core systems are already under strain. About 673 million people faced hunger in 2024 [7], 2.2 billion lacked safely managed drinking water [8], air pollution kills about 6.7 million people a year [14], and monitored wildlife populations have fallen by 73% on average since 1970 [9]. Each of these is coupled to the others through land, water and energy [16].
New couplings are forming at the frontier. Data centres used about 415 TWh of electricity in 2024, about 1.5% of the world total, and their use is projected to roughly double by 2030 [5]. The minerals behind batteries, grids and chips are refined in very few places: the top three refining countries hold, on average, about 86% of supply for key energy minerals [36]. Technology risk is therefore also energy, water and supply-chain risk.
Capabilities have grown, but unevenly. 108 countries reported multi-hazard early-warning systems in 2024, more than twice as many as in 2015 [35], and just over half of the world’s people are now covered by at least one social-protection benefit [44]. Adaptation finance, however, falls short of need by an estimated US$187–359 billion a year [42].
This edition therefore reads global risk as a property of couplings rather than a ranking of threats. The dependency matrix, the risk objects, the capability ladder and the compound scenario that follow all ask the same two questions: where does a shock travel next, and who holds the capability to stop it?
North America, including Central America and the Caribbean, carried the largest losses, and about 70% of them were insured. Asia’s losses were more than half as large, but only about US$9 billion was insured. Africa’s recorded losses were small in money terms but almost entirely uninsured [2].
Dependency network
The global matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited assessments and analogue events; they set the starting graph that federation evidence will test in 2027.
Select a system
Each line is one coupling, weighted by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.
| WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT Water | · | STRONGhydro · thermal cooling | STRONGirrigation · rain-fed yield | STRONGsafe water · sanitation | STRONGflows · wetlands |
| ENE Energy | MODERATEpumping · desalination | · | STRONGfuel · fertiliser · cold chain | STRONGair pollution · cooling | MODERATEland use · mining |
| FOO Food | STRONG≈70% of withdrawals | WEAKbioenergy feedstock | · | STRONGnutrition · food safety | STRONGland conversion |
| HLT Health | WEAKworkforce | WEAKworkforce | MODERATElabour · disease | · | WEAKresidues |
| BIO Biodiversity | STRONGregulation · filtration | MODERATEbiomass · hydrology | STRONGpollination · soils | MODERATEzoonoses · medicines | · |
Transmission paths
Reinforcing loops · both directions rated strong
A shock entering either system of a loop returns amplified through the other. A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.
Domain posture
Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The reading states where the global evidence points; the coupling column names the dependency that carries risk across systems and borders.
| Domain | Posture at baseline | Coupling | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | 2.2 billion people without safely managed drinking water; basin stress concentrated in arid and fast-growing regions. | WAT → FOO irrigation · WAT → ENE cooling | REPORTEDEQL 4 |
| ENE | Record energy CO₂ in 2024; clean power at about 41% of electricity; demand rising with cooling and compute. | ENE ↔ WAT · ENE → FOO inputs | REPORTEDEQL 5 |
| FOO | 673 million people facing hunger; production concentrated in a few breadbaskets and exporters. | FOO ← WAT, ENE · FOO → TRD | REPORTEDEQL 4 |
| HLT | Air pollution and heat are the leading environmental health burdens; One Health risks persist. | HLT ← CLI, ENE, BIO | REPORTEDEQL 4 |
| BIO | Wildlife populations down 73% since 1970; protection below 30% targets on land and sea. | BIO → WAT, FOO · BIO ← land use | REPORTEDEQL 4 |
| CLI | 1.43 °C in 2025 after a record 1.55 °C; energy imbalance at a record high. | forcing on all five systems | REPORTEDEQL 5 |
| INF | Chokepoints in shipping, power and data networks concentrate exposure. | INF → TRD, ENE, FOO | INFERREDEQL 3 |
| FIN | Insured losses above US$100 billion for six years; about half of losses uninsured; debt constrains response. | FIN ← CLI · FIN → sovereigns | REPORTEDEQL 4 |
| DAT | Cloud, cable and satellite dependencies are concentrated and only partly mapped. | DAT → ENE, FIN, HLT | EXPERT INPUTEQL 2 |
| AIC | Data centres used about 415 TWh in 2024; use projected to roughly double by 2030. | AIC → ENE, WAT, MIN | REPORTEDEQL 3 |
| MIN | Refining of key energy minerals concentrated: the top three refiners average about 86%. | MIN → ENE transition, AIC | REPORTEDEQL 3 |
| TRD | Trade fragmentation and export restrictions raise transmission risk for food and minerals. | TRD → all systems | INFERREDEQL 3 |
Sector screens
All sixteen global sectors are screened on the same grammar as every national edition, so later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.
| Code | Sector | Baseline evidence | Exposure to watch | Evidence coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS-00 | Cross-system | entangled crises; six of nine boundaries transgressed [20] | compound and cascading shocks | PARTIAL |
| GS-01 | Water | 2.2 billion without safely managed water [8] | drought and flood extremes | GOOD |
| GS-02 | Energy | record CO₂; about 41% clean power [4] [6] | heat demand; mineral concentration | GOOD |
| GS-03 | Food and agrifood | 673 million facing hunger [7] | concurrent breadbasket failure | GOOD |
| GS-04 | Health | 6.7 million air-pollution deaths a year [14] | heat, pandemics, antimicrobial resistance | PARTIAL |
| GS-05 | Finance and economy | US$102 trillion public debt [13] | debt distress after disasters | GOOD |
| GS-06 | Development | 123.2 million forcibly displaced [12] | conflict–climate compounding | PARTIAL |
| GS-07 | Climate | 1.43 °C in 2025 [1] | extremes and tipping risk | GOOD |
| GS-08 | Disaster | US$224 billion losses in 2025 [2] | frequency of medium events | GOOD |
| GS-09 | Infrastructure | chokepoint concentration | shipping, power and cable outages | PARTIAL |
| GS-10 | Cities | most people now live in cities [11] | urban heat and flooding | PARTIAL |
| GS-11 | Biodiversity | −73% wildlife populations [9] | land-use change and fire | GOOD |
| GS-12 | Earth observation | strong global observing systems | continuity of key missions | PARTIAL |
| GS-13 | Cyber and digital | concentrated cloud and network dependence | systemic outages | THIN |
| GS-14 | Policy and institutions | new pandemic and ocean agreements [27] [32] | implementation and finance gaps | PARTIAL |
| GS-15 | Science and engineering | deep research base; AI adoption rising [37] | translation and dual use | THIN |
Risk portfolio
Four global risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence; loss metrics are added only where they can be modelled.
Capability ladder
Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the global level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.
Ladder: LISTED, EXISTS, DEMONSTRATED, TESTED. A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.
Scenario · SCN-SR01-BBF-01
A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.
Assumptions
Cascade, step by step
How the shock in scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01 would travel through Global Polycrisis's coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.
Heat and drought cut yields in several exporters at once. Analogue or source: 2010 · 2012. Edition SR-01, scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01, step 1
The cascade of scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01 as a playable chain of couplings, one step at a time.
A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition's stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning.
Sources: Global Polycrisis 2026, scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01 (2026); Global Polycrisis 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).
Three lenses
The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.
GCRI · KEY T
The evidence supports an entangled reading of global risk. Warming and losses set records in the same years; frequency, not one peak event, drives losses; and the five core systems share dependence on water, energy and land. Evidence is strongest for climate and losses, and weakest for digital dependencies and tipping proximity.
CLI-001 · FIN-002 · CLI-010 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
For most people global risk arrives as a price rise, a heat wave or a flood, and its burden depends on where they live. The baseline asks that public debate weigh the couplings and the distribution of losses, not a list of separate threats.
FIN-003 · FOO-006 · HLT-008
GRA · KEY F
Readiness implications only. About half of disaster losses are uninsured, debt service crowds out adaptation, and climate disclosure standards are spreading [33]. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.
FIN-002 · FIN-003 · FIN-011
NEXUS
The world’s crises share causes and channels. The 2027 programme should test the mechanisms rather than list the crises: bind the common causes, trace the dominoes through fiscal and food channels, and measure the feedbacks that make recovery slower than the next shock.
SYS-012 · P-01 · P-02
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation reading
2027 agenda
Eight bounded questions open the 2027 polycrisis agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 polycrisis edition.
How likely is a simultaneous shortfall across major breadbaskets at 1.5–2 °C, and which import-dependent countries are most exposed?
Where does the uninsured share of disaster losses land, by region, peril and income group?
How do AI compute demand, power systems, water and critical-mineral refining constrain one another?
Which tipping systems are closest, and which indicators would give early warning?
How does debt service constrain adaptation and recovery where hazard is highest?
How do heat and water stress couple through health, labour and food in the tropics?
Where do early-warning gaps coincide with high hazard and thin insurance?
How do conflict, displacement and climate hazards compound in fragile settings?
Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
Six initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 global portfolio. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.
| ID | Object | Kind | Question | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INI-SR01-FOO-01 | Breadbasket concurrency model | Initiative | P-01 | PROPOSED |
| INI-SR01-FIN-02 | Global protection-gap atlas | Initiative | P-02 | PROPOSED |
| INI-SR01-TEC-03 | Compute–power–minerals nexus | Initiative | P-03 | PROPOSED |
| INI-SR01-CLI-04 | Tipping indicators register | Initiative | P-04 | PROPOSED |
| INI-SR01-FIN-05 | Debt–adaptation constraint | Initiative | P-05 | PROPOSED |
| INI-SR01-HLT-06 | Heat–water–labour exposure | Initiative | P-06 | PROPOSED |
| MSN-SR01-2027-01 | Breadbasket–energy compound Universe mission | Mission | P-01 | CANDIDATE |
The pathway
The global edition is the top of the Nexus federation. It does not collect its own evidence. It reads national, regional and sector editions through one governed evidence graph, so a correction made anywhere travels everywhere. At baseline the federation is designed and its first edition is issued.
National Foundries
continuous national evidence environments
National Models and Portfolios
each country as a system of systems
Quarterly national reports
State & Agenda, Evidence, Stress Test, Annual
Regional aggregation
ten regional clusters
Global sector and strategic models
GS-01…15 · SR-01…14 · XT-01…20
Nexus Universe
annual proving environment
Global Nexus Report
this series
Evidence and correction
one graph, many projections
Evidence at baseline
| Instance | Mechanism in action | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warming | 1.43 °C in 2025 after a record 1.55 °C; stress on all five core systems | [1] [41] | REPORTED |
| Energy prices | one price shock passes into food, fertiliser and household budgets | [4] | INFERRED |
| Land-use change | drives biodiversity loss, emissions and zoonotic risk together | [16] [17] | REPORTED |
| Interest rates | a rise tightens every indebted budget at once | [13] | INFERRED |
Pathways in this mechanism
Evidence to bind in 2027
System chapter
A domino effect carries a shock from one system to the next. Food and finance are the main channels at baseline.
Evidence at baseline
| Instance | Mechanism in action | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drought → food → prices | breadbasket shortfalls transmitted through trade | [23] | REPORTED |
| Disaster → budgets | uninsured losses become public and household debt | [2] [13] | INFERRED |
| Prices → hunger | food-price rises cut diets in import-dependent households | [7] | REPORTED |
| Conflict → displacement | 123.2 million forcibly displaced at the end of 2024 | [12] | REPORTED |
Pathways in this mechanism
Evidence to bind in 2027
System chapter
Feedbacks make crises reinforce each other: debt slows recovery, slow recovery deepens vulnerability, and vulnerability raises the cost of the next shock.
Evidence at baseline
| Instance | Mechanism in action | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt–disaster loop | interest costs crowd out adaptation, raising future losses | [13] [42] | INFERRED |
| Hunger–conflict loop | food insecurity and conflict reinforce each other | [7] [12] | INFERRED |
| Nature–climate loop | ecosystem loss weakens carbon and water regulation | [16] [20] | REPORTED |
| Heat–health–labour loop | heat cuts work capacity and income | [26] | REPORTED |
Pathways in this mechanism
Evidence to bind in 2027
System chapter
Entanglement is worst where buffers are thinnest. Fiscal space, insurance cover and social protection decide whether a shock stays contained.
Evidence at baseline
| Instance | Mechanism in action | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal space | 3.4 billion people where interest exceeds health or education spending | [13] | REPORTED |
| Insurance | about half of 2025 losses uninsured; about 12% insured in Asia | [2] | REPORTED |
| Social protection | 52.4% of people covered by at least one benefit | [44] | REPORTED |
| Early warning | 108 countries with multi-hazard systems in 2024 | [35] | REPORTED |
Pathways in this mechanism
Evidence to bind in 2027
System chapter
Some couplings change character past a threshold. Planetary boundaries and tipping systems mark where gradual stress can become abrupt change.
Evidence at baseline
| Instance | Mechanism in action | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Planetary boundaries | six of nine assessed as transgressed in 2023 | [20] | REPORTED |
| Tipping systems | five major systems at risk at current warming | [21] | REPORTED |
| Safe and just limits | boundaries defined for people as well as the planet | [47] | REPORTED |
| Energy imbalance | record high in 2025; the system is still gaining heat | [1] | REPORTED |
Pathways in this mechanism
Evidence to bind in 2027
Process
Press play to run the release step by step in the five pillar lanes; select a step to read it.
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
Nexus Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Nexus Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site's.
The quarterly release in the five pillar lanes: what Foundry and Universe hand to Reports, what Reports seals, reviews, signs, deposits and publishes, and what returns to Standards.
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record.
Sources: Nexus Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Nexus Reports deposits (2026).
How a contribution reaches this edition, step by step, is on the contribute page and the front page of this site. Contribute
Open science
Identifiers, licences and the bundle at deposit; credit by ORCID, ROR and CRediT; the open indexes; and a deposit prefilled for a contribution to this edition.
Search the open indexes for Global Polycrisis; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.
The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.
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What is on this site now, what ships with the signed bundle at release, and what is not recorded for this edition; then the chain the outputs come from and how to cite each one.
| Format | State | What it is | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Web editionHTML | On this site | Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source. | NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| Print editionPDF | At release | A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release. | NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| Indicator dataCSV · JSON | On this site | 19 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release. | NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1 |
| FiguresSVG · PNG | On this site | 4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder. | FIG-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-* |
| SlidesPDF | Not recorded | No slide deck is recorded for this edition. | |
| Evidence briefHTML · PDF | Not recorded | No evidence brief is recorded for this edition. | |
| Dataset with DOIDataCite | At release | Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet. |
Provenance
Cite it
Indicator data
| Indicator | Value | Unit | Year | State | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global mean temperature above 1850–1900 | 1.43 | °C | 2025 | REPORTED | [1] |
| Record year temperature | 1.55 | °C | 2024 | REPORTED | [41] |
| Three-year average temperature | 1.48 | °C | 2023–2025 | REPORTED | [40] |
| CO₂ concentration | 423.9 | ppm | 2024 | REPORTED | [1] |
| Total GHG emissions | 57.1 | Gt CO₂e | 2023 | REPORTED | [3] |
| Energy-related CO₂ | 37.8 | Gt CO₂ | 2024 | REPORTED | [4] |
| Data-centre electricity use | ≈415 | TWh | 2024 | REPORTED | [5] |
| Natural-disaster losses | 224 | US$ billion | 2025 | REPORTED | [2] |
| Insured disaster losses | 108 | US$ billion | 2025 | REPORTED | [2] |
| Disaster deaths | 17,200 | deaths | 2025 | REPORTED | [2] |
| People facing hunger | 673 | million | 2024 | REPORTED | [7] |
| Without safely managed water | 2.2 | billion | 2022 | REPORTED | [8] |
| Air-pollution deaths | 6.7 | million a year | 2019–2020 | REPORTED | [14] |
| Wildlife population change | −73 | % | 1970–2020 | REPORTED | [9] |
| Protected land · ocean | 17.6 · 8.4 | % | 2024 | REPORTED | [10] |
| Population | 8.2 | billion | 2024 | REPORTED | [11] |
| Forcibly displaced | 123.2 | million | 2024 | REPORTED | [12] |
| Public debt | 102 | US$ trillion | 2024 | REPORTED | [13] |
| Covered by social protection | 52.4 | % | 2023 | REPORTED | [44] |
Six pillars
Nexus Foundry seals the evidence and Nexus Universe tests it; Nexus Reports publishes it; Nexus Standards takes its corrections and Risk Academy teaches from it.
| Handoff | Between | What crosses, and when |
|---|---|---|
| F03 | Nexus Foundry to Nexus Reports | Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout). |
| F04 | Nexus Universe to Nexus Reports | After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review). |
| F05 | Nexus Foundry to Nexus Reports | National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review). |
| Ring | Nexus Standards to Nexus Reports | Nexus Standards: applied in editions. |
| F06 | Nexus Reports to Nexus Standards | Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction). |
| F12 | Nexus Reports to Nexus Universe | Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal). |
| Ring | Nexus Reports to Risk Academy | Risk Academy: taught in the open. |
Corrections log
A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.
0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition's current version.
| Edition | Version | Date | State | Change | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SR-01 | NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | Draft | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition | None |
Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.
References · NR-CIT-1
Publication record
Publication
Publisher
Colophon
Release path for this version
Release path for this version
| Step | What happens | When |
|---|---|---|
| Draft | editorial self-check complete at evidence close | October 2026 |
| Steward review | five passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N) | Q4 2026 |
| Approval | publication authority approves the exact digest | before release |
| Deposit | concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set | at release |
| Succession | the 2027 polycrisis edition reports changes against this baseline | 2027 |