GCRI · Reports
Exponential Technology
Exponential Technology assesses technologies whose capability is changing fast (AI, quantum, biotechnology, robotics, space) for the risks they create and the risks they could reduce.
The order things happen in.
- 01Draftsources cited, labels attached
- 02Evidence checkevery value traced
- 03Independent reviewconflicts declared
- 04Editionpublished with its limits
- 05Correctiona new version, never a silent edit
Platforms that contribute.
- ReportsInstitutionGCRI
- Artificial Intelligence and Autonomous SystemsInstitutionGCRI
- Data and ComputeInstitutionGCRI
- Quantum TechnologiesInstitutionGCRI
- Space and Earth ObservationInstitutionGCRI
- Biotechnology and BiosecurityInstitutionGCRI
- Advanced Industry and RoboticsInstitutionGCRI
- Digital Public InfrastructureInstitutionGCRI
- Innovation NexusInstitutionGRF
- AI and Digital GovernanceInstitutionGRF
- Fintech NexusInstitutionGRA
- AI and Financial Model RiskInstitutionGRA
What the series covers and at what unit.
An edition separates demonstrated capability from roadmap claims, maps the dependencies of the technology, and sets out the governance instruments that apply.
| Element | In this series |
|---|---|
| Unit of analysis | A technology or technology cluster |
| Method | Capability evidence review, technology readiness assessment, dependency mapping, review of risk frameworks (NIST AI RMF, ISO/IEC 42001 and others) |
What an edition of this series does not do.
- Recommend products or vendors.
- Publish dual-use technical detail; biotechnology content stays at capacity and oversight level.
- Predict dates for capability milestones.
The Foundry systems an edition draws on.
What each system is designed to supply to Exponential Technology; an edition cites a record only once it exists and has passed review.
| System | Rooms | Designed to supply |
|---|---|---|
| NXS-NXQ (software, models and capability lifecycle) | Capabilities, Competence | The capability catalogue and fitness assessments of machine capabilities |
| NXS-LAB (research, experiments and simulations) | Benchmarks, Experiments | Benchmark comparisons and experiment records for fast-changing technologies |
20 editions in the Baseline programme.
Drafted editions are in stewardship review and open their landing page; planned ones have no outputs yet. None is released before it is deposited with its DOI.
| Code | Edition | Wave | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| XT-01 | Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems Report 2026 · Baseline Edition | W0 | Drafted, in review |
| XT-02 | Technology 2, subject set at commissioning | W6 | Planned |
| XT-03 | Technology 3, subject set at commissioning | W6 | Planned |
| XT-04 | Technology 4, subject set at commissioning | W6 | Planned |
| XT-05 | Technology 5, subject set at commissioning | W6 | Planned |
| XT-06 | Semiconductors | W6 | Planned |
| XT-07 | Technology 7, subject set at commissioning | W6 | Planned |
| XT-08 | Technology 8, subject set at commissioning | W6 | Planned |
| XT-09 | Technology 9, subject set at commissioning | W6 | Planned |
| XT-10 | Technology 10, subject set at commissioning | W6 | Planned |
| XT-11 | Technology 11, subject set at commissioning | W6 | Planned |
| XT-12 | Technology 12, subject set at commissioning | W6 | Planned |
| XT-13 | Technology 13, subject set at commissioning | W6 | Planned |
| XT-14 | Technology 14, subject set at commissioning | W6 | Planned |
| XT-15 | Technology 15, subject set at commissioning | W6 | Planned |
| XT-16 | Technology 16, subject set at commissioning | W6 | Planned |
| XT-17 | Technology 17, subject set at commissioning | W6 | Planned |
| XT-18 | Technology 18, subject set at commissioning | W6 | Planned |
| XT-19 | Technology 19, subject set at commissioning | W6 | Planned |
| XT-20 | Technology 20, subject set at commissioning | W6 | Planned |
Where the series’ subjects are taught.
Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium, teaches the subjects of Exponential Technology in these disciplines; the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) links to the Academy as a partner and does not provide its courses.
Where this page’s references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
Questions and answers.
Who decides what is published?
Bring a method, a dataset or a question.
Information and enquiries are open today. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.
Legal documents.
Maps, data and figures on this site are shown for context and general information. They are not advice, forecasts or warnings; the limits of the information are set out in the Disclaimers and Data Notices.