Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Global Science and Engineering Frontier Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Science and Engineering Frontier.

The first annual edition of the science and engineering report. It fixes the 2026 reference state of the world’s science and engineering enterprise, and the model, voice and positions, against which the 2027 edition will be read.

Read the executive summaryStart with chapter 1Cite this report
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi
Desk
GCRI Systems Evidence
Publisher of record
GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Status
Draft in stewardship review; not yet released
ReportsGS-15

Global Sector Risk and Resilience

Global Science and Engineering Frontier 2026

Baseline Edition 2026NR-SECTOR-SCIENCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Findings12each with its status and source
Sources44numbered, editor first
Chapters and annexes11plus the executive summary
Indicators20in the data appendix, with CSV and JSON

01 · Status

Status and boundaries.

This edition governs nothing and confers no certification. It records where the global evidence stood at the 2026 baseline. Every value resolves to its source or to its stated method; where neither exists, the edition says so instead of filling the gap.

Publication ID
NR-SECTOR-SCIENCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Series alias
NR-SEC-GS-15-2026-BL
Identifier status
Series alias and evidence cut are provisional until the owner confirms them. No UNI is minted.
Family · class
Global Sector Report GS-15 Science and Engineering Frontier · Baseline Edition (inaugural annual)
Lifecycle state
Global Sector Report GS-15 Science and Engineering Frontier · Baseline Edition (inaugural annual)
Publication date
October 2026
Evidence close
30 September 2026 · cut DC-SECTOR-SCIENCE-GLOBAL-2026-B0
Reproducibility
sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Access class
PUBLIC-SAFE DERIVATIVE
Review
five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Designed for
strategic planning · research-system screening · portfolio discussion · research · public communication
Not for
government assessment · official warning · rating · certification · investment advice · underwriting · procurement · operational authorisation
Registry
record NR-SECTOR-SCIENCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE · current-version pointer at release
Corrections
registry correction pathway · history in Annex C
AI use
disclosed in Annex C
Next edition
NR-SECTOR-SCIENCE-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0 · 2027 annual
Licence
text CC BY 4.0 · data on the terms of each source
Desk identifier
Collection

02 · Key messages

What the edition finds.

Five of the questions the edition answers, each with its status. The executive summary has all of them, with their sources.

  1. About USD 3.48 trillion in 2024; the share of GDP depends on the issuer.

    How much does the world spend on research?Reported

  2. China and the United States together perform more than half of spending; researcher density differs widely across regions.

    Who does the research?Reported

  3. Yes. 3.5 million articles in 2024 and 284,486 arXiv submissions in 2025.

    Is the literature growing?Reported

  4. Retractions and paper-mill fraud are rising pressures; the share of the record affected is not known.

    Can the record be trusted?Reported

  5. It is a growing part of output, but agents reach about half of expert scores on research tasks.

    What is AI doing in science?Reported

All key messages and the headline finding

03 · Contents

Eight chapters and three annexes.

  1. ·

    Executive summary

    The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

  2. 1

    Chapter 1. Science is where the frontier is made

    Part I describes systems and their couplings.

  3. 2

    Chapter 2. Key findings

    Twelve findings carry the science and engineering baseline.

  4. 3

    Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline

  5. 4

    Chapter 4. Risks and capability

    Four science and engineering risk objects open the portfolio.

  6. 5

    Chapter 5. Loss of trust in the research record during a fast-moving emergency

    A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

  7. 6

    Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks

    The science and engineering baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole.

  8. 7

    Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda

    Eight bounded questions open the 2027 science and engineering agenda.

  9. 8

    Chapter 8. Systems in depth

    One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

  10. A

    Annex A. Methodology

    How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

  11. B

    Annex B. Data appendix

    The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

  12. C

    Annex C. References and record

    Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

List of figures (4)
  1. S.1Researchers per million inhabitants (FTE), 2023
  2. 1.1How unevenly is research capacity spread? Researchers per million inhabitants (FTE), 2023
  3. 1.2Couplings between the five systems
  4. 2.1Researchers per million inhabitants (FTE), 2023
List of tables (46)
  1. 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
  2. 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
  3. 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
  4. 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
  5. 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
  6. 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
  7. 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
  8. 6.32027 science and engineering readiness pack
  9. 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
  10. 6.5Peer-reviewed science and assessments
  11. 6.6Institutional flagships
  12. 6.7Statistics, preprints and data services
  13. 6.8Instruments, governance and standards
  14. 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
  15. 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the science and engineering candidate mission
  16. 7.3Handoffs and routing
  17. 7.4Routing rules by publication class
  18. 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
  19. 7.6Signals at baseline
  20. 8.1State at baseline
  21. 8.2State at baseline
  22. 8.3State at baseline
  23. 8.4State at baseline
  24. 8.5State at baseline
  25. A.1Methods
  26. A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
  27. A.3Status grammar
  28. A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
  29. A.5Evidence age and coverage
  30. A.6Coverage by system at baseline
  31. A.7Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why
  32. A.8Quality dimensions at baseline
  33. A.9Publication acceptance record
  34. A.10The status every value carries
  35. A.11Series terms
  36. A.12Abbreviations used in this edition
  37. A.13Technical annex
  38. B.1Global baseline indicator set
  39. B.2Global baseline indicator set
  40. B.3Global source register
  41. B.4Regional reading: science and engineering across ten clusters
  42. B.5How countries appear in the science and engineering edition
  43. B.6National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme
  44. B.7Licences of each kind of material
  45. B.8This edition in every format
  46. C.1Release path for this version

04 · GCRI reading

How GCRI reads this edition.

The evidence supports reading science and engineering as the discovery layer of the WEFH+B system. Funding, people and compute are concentrated, output keeps rising and the record is under integrity pressure. Evidence is strongest for spending, output and capacity, and weakest for replication, open-access reuse and research security.

DAT-003 · GOV-005 · INF-008 · SYS-012

Chapter 6, lenses and readings

05 · Publication record

Version, dates and contributors.

The identity of this edition as its title pages record it. A review copy has no DOI; the DOI is issued at deposit.

Publication ID
NR-SECTOR-SCIENCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Version
1.0.0, review copy
Edition date
Evidence close
Status
Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi
Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Licence of the text
CC BY 4.0
DOI
Issued at deposit, on release
Previous edition
none: first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-SECTOR-SCIENCE-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0

Contributors

RoleContributionBy
ConceptualisationSeries architecture and the science and engineering modelS. Valadbaygi (ed.)
MethodologyBaseline method, dependency scoring and status grammarReports editorial team, GCRI
Investigation · data curationSource review of science and engineering releases, statistics and the peer-reviewed literature to evidence closeReports editorial team, GCRI
Writing, original draftAll chapters; AI-assisted drafting, disclosed belowEditor · editorial team
Writing, review and editingFive review passes before releaseSteward reviewers (scheduled)
VisualisationPages, figures and tables in the Nexus design standardReports editorial team, GCRI
SupervisionEdition governance, registry record and depositS. Valadbaygi (ed.)

Review before release

PassScopeByState
1Scientific and technicalGCRI · key TScheduled
2Reproducibility of analytical valuesGCRI · key TScheduled
3Public meaning and claimsThe Global Risks Forum (GRF) · key MScheduled
4Finance-readiness boundaryThe Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · key FScheduled
5Regional and sector context, safeguardsRegional consortia · key NScheduled

AI assistance was used for drafting, consistency checks and page composition. Every number, citation and status label was checked against its source by the editorial team before freeze. No AI system is recorded as an author or a reviewer, and no AI output is printed as fact without a source.

06 · Downloads

Read it in print, take the data.

FormatWhat it isStateGet it
Complete edition, print or PDFA4 or Letter, chosen in the print dialog: cover, contents, every chapter and annex, endnotes and running heads Review copyOpen for print
Indicators, CSV20 indicators with unit, year, status and source On this pageDownload
Indicators, JSONThe same indicators with the edition’s identity and licence On this pageDownload
Findings, CSV12 findings with status, evidence-quality level and references On this pageDownload
Citation, BibTeXFor LaTeX and reference managers On this pageDownload
Citation, RISFor Zotero, EndNote and Mendeley On this pageDownload
PDF, A4 and US LetterPrinted from the edition pack in the Reports print design, with the publication ID, the evidence cut and the pack hash in its metadata; signed with its DOI at release At releaseNot yet issued
Data packageEvery table of the edition as CSV and JSON, with the citation files (CSL-JSON, BibTeX, RIS), built with the site With the editionAnnex B, data

The print and the files are produced from the same edition pack as the web pages, so they always agree. Until release they are review copies.

07 · Cite

Cite this report.

This edition is a draft in stewardship review. Cite it as a draft; the DOI and the UNI are issued at deposit, and the citation then names them.
Catalogue keyNR-SECTOR-SCIENCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Standards applied to NR-SECTOR-SCIENCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Cite as

S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Science and Engineering Frontier Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Science and Engineering Frontier.. Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-SECTOR-SCIENCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.

Applied

NS-1 catalogue identity (a UNI is allocated at deposit and resolves to this record), NS-2 citation and attribution, NS-3b dataset metadata, NS-5 figures and maps, NS-12 software and AI disclosure.

Monitoring

Corrections are new versions with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.

An attestation is evidence, not a certificate. Nexus Standards parts are preparatory working drafts (2026).

APA 7
Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Nexus Global Science and Engineering Frontier Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Science and Engineering Frontier. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-SCIENCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/gs-15/
Chicago
Valadbaygi, Saeed, ed. Nexus Global Science and Engineering Frontier Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Science and Engineering Frontier.. Baseline Edition 2026. Nexus Reports NR-SECTOR-SCIENCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE. Draft under review. Toronto: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), 2026. https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/gs-15/.
BibTeX
@techreport{NR-SECTOR-SCIENCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE,
  editor      = {Valadbaygi, Saeed},
  title       = {{Nexus Global Science and Engineering Frontier Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Science and Engineering Frontier.}},
  institution = {The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)},
  address     = {Toronto},
  year        = {2026},
  type        = {Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026},
  number      = {NR-SECTOR-SCIENCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE},
  note        = {Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit},
  url         = {https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/gs-15/}
}
RIS
TY  - RPRT
ED  - Valadbaygi, Saeed
TI  - Nexus Global Science and Engineering Frontier Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Science and Engineering Frontier.
T3  - Nexus Reports
ET  - Baseline Edition 2026
PY  - 2026
PB  - The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
CY  - Toronto
SN  - NR-SECTOR-SCIENCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE
UR  - https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/gs-15/
N1  - Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit.
LA  - en
ER  -
NR-CIT-1 (house style)
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus Global Science and Engineering Frontier Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Science and Engineering Frontier.. Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-SECTOR-SCIENCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
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