Brazil Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Brazil baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. 2,145 Mt CO₂e gross in 2024, 16.7% below 2023; 1.49 Gt net.⁹

   Where do emissions stand?Reported

2. A net cut of 59 to 67% below 2005, or 0.85 to 1.05 Gt CO₂e.⁸

   What is the 2035 target?Reported

3. PRODES estimate 5,796 km², 11.08% below the year before; fire burned 12.7 million hectares nationally in 2025.¹¹¹⁴

   How is the Amazon changing?Reported

4. 86.8% renewable, but hydropower is about half of generation and fell 4.8% in 2025.¹⁰

   How secure is power?Reported

5. About 2.4 million people affected and R$88.9 billion in estimated effects in one state.¹⁵¹⁶

   What did the 2024 floods show?Reported

6. Harvest estimate of 360.8 Mt, 2.4% above the previous crop year; Brazil outside the FAO Hunger Map.⁷²⁴

   How secure is food?Reported

7. Dengue is bound; heat-attributable deaths were not bound at evidence close. Ministry of Health

   Is heat now a health hazard?Not bound

8. A strong El Niño drought across Amazon rivers, hydropower and fire. SCN-BRA-DRT-01

   What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007

The 2024 Rio Grande do Sul floods affected about 2.4 million people in 478 of the state’s 497 municipalities, and the joint assessment estimates their effects at R$88.9 billion, 69% of it in productive sectors.

Floods in one state hit production, housing and lifelines at once. The assessment reports that visible damage is only about half of the economic effect, with the rest in lost output and cascading losses to small firms and farms¹⁵. The state’s civil defence recorded 185 confirmed deaths, 23 people missing and a peak of 581,638 displaced people¹⁶.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Estimativas da população residente no Brasil e unidades da federação com data de referência em 1º de julho de 2026 (SIDRA table 6579). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 28 August 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
2. 10Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (ed.), Balanço Energético Nacional 2026: Relatório Síntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Ministério de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
3. 8Federative Republic of Brazil (ed.), Brazil’s Nationally Determined Contribution: National determination to contribute and transform (second NDC). Submission to the UNFCCC, Brasília, November 2024. Observation year: 2024 (2005 reference; target year 2035).back
4. 9Observatório do Clima (ed.), SEEG 13: Análise das emissões brasileiras de gases de efeito estufa e suas implicações para as metas climáticas do Brasil, 1970 a 2024. Observatório do Clima, São Paulo, November 2025, read from press reports and search excerpts of the release because the report PDF returned HTTP 403. Observation year: 2024.back
5. 11Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), Estimativa de desmatamento na Amazônia Legal para 2025 é de 5.796 km², Nota técnica, Programa BiomasBR (PRODES). INPE, São José dos Campos, October 2025. Observation year: 2025 (August 2024 to July 2025).back
6. 21Serviço Geológico do Brasil (ed.), Negro River gauge at the port of Manaus, level of 12.66 m on 4 October 2024, as reported by the Associated Press, “Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years,” October 2024. SGB, Manaus. Observation year: 2024.back
7. 44J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., “The new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,” Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back
8. 13MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2024: primeiro Relatório Anual do Fogo. MapBiomas, São Paulo, 24 June 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
9. 15World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and ECLAC (eds.), “BID, CEPAL e Grupo Banco Mundial estimam que atuação tempestiva evitou impacto de 1,1 ponto percentual do PIB no Rio Grande do Sul,” press release on the joint Damage and Loss Assessment of the 2024 floods. World Bank, Brasília, 28 November 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
10. 16Governo do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, Defesa Civil (ed.), “Situação nos municípios,” SOS Rio Grande do Sul, state portal, last updated 19 August 2025. Porto Alegre. Observation year: 2024 (event of April and May 2024).back
11. 7FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026. FAO, Rome, 21 July 2026, Brazil results as reported by the Federal Government on 30 July 2026. Observation year: 2023 to 2025.back
12. 4Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Síntese de Indicadores Sociais 2025. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 December 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.back
13. 17Ministério da Saúde (ed.), Painel de Monitoramento das Arboviroses, data to 28 December 2024, as reported by Agência Brasil, “Casos de dengue em 2024 passam de 6,4 milhões; mortes somam 5,9 mil,” January 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
14. 14MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2025: segunda edição do Relatório Anual do Fogo no Brasil, released 21 July 2026, as reported by Correio Braziliense, “Área queimada no Brasil cai para 12,7 milhões de hectares em 2025, aponta MapBiomas,” July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
15. 24Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (ed.), 11º Levantamento da Safra de Grãos 2025/26, released 13 August 2026, as reported by Agência Brasil. CONAB, Brasília. Observation year: 2025/26 (agency estimate).back
16. 2Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Censo Demográfico 2022: população residente por sexo e idade (SIDRA table 9514). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro. Observation year: 2022.back
17. 3Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), “PIB cresce 2,3% em 2025 e fecha o ano em R$ 12,7 trilhões,” Contas Nacionais Trimestrais. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 March 2026. Observation year: 2025.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is Brazil’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
• Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
• Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
• What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Five system chapters
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Brazil matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   CLI → WAT → ENE

   Drought lowers river flows and hydropower, and thermal dispatch rises.

   Inferred hydro −4.8%, gas +22.7%, 2025¹⁰

2. 02

   CLI → WAT → INF

   Record river lows interrupt river transport.

   Reported Negro River, 2023 and 2024²¹⁴⁴

3. 03

   CLI → BIO → HLT

   Drought and fire raise smoke and heat load on health services.

   Inferred ≈30 million ha burned, 2024¹³

4. 04

   CLI → INF → FIN

   Floods destroy assets and output, and fall on public budgets.

   Reported Rio Grande do Sul, 2024¹⁵

5. 05

   BIO → CLI → FOO

   Forest loss weakens regional moisture recycling that supports crops.

   Inferred literature³⁹⁴⁰⁴³

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Estimativas da população residente no Brasil e unidades da federação com data de referência em 1º de julho de 2026 (SIDRA table 6579). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 28 August 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
2. 21Serviço Geológico do Brasil (ed.), Negro River gauge at the port of Manaus, level of 12.66 m on 4 October 2024, as reported by the Associated Press, “Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years,” October 2024. SGB, Manaus. Observation year: 2024.back
3. 44J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., “The new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,” Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back
4. 15World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and ECLAC (eds.), “BID, CEPAL e Grupo Banco Mundial estimam que atuação tempestiva evitou impacto de 1,1 ponto percentual do PIB no Rio Grande do Sul,” press release on the joint Damage and Loss Assessment of the 2024 floods. World Bank, Brasília, 28 November 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
5. 16Governo do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, Defesa Civil (ed.), “Situação nos municípios,” SOS Rio Grande do Sul, state portal, last updated 19 August 2025. Porto Alegre. Observation year: 2024 (event of April and May 2024).back
6. 18World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2025. WMO, Geneva, 18 May 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
7. 11Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), Estimativa de desmatamento na Amazônia Legal para 2025 é de 5.796 km², Nota técnica, Programa BiomasBR (PRODES). INPE, São José dos Campos, October 2025. Observation year: 2025 (August 2024 to July 2025).back
8. 12MapBiomas Alerta (ed.), Relatório Anual do Desmatamento no Brasil, RAD 2025: Destaques (factsheet, version of 26 May 2026). MapBiomas, São Paulo, 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
9. 13MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2024: primeiro Relatório Anual do Fogo. MapBiomas, São Paulo, 24 June 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
10. 14MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2025: segunda edição do Relatório Anual do Fogo no Brasil, released 21 July 2026, as reported by Correio Braziliense, “Área queimada no Brasil cai para 12,7 milhões de hectares em 2025, aponta MapBiomas,” July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
11. 8Federative Republic of Brazil (ed.), Brazil’s Nationally Determined Contribution: National determination to contribute and transform (second NDC). Submission to the UNFCCC, Brasília, November 2024. Observation year: 2024 (2005 reference; target year 2035).back
12. 9Observatório do Clima (ed.), SEEG 13: Análise das emissões brasileiras de gases de efeito estufa e suas implicações para as metas climáticas do Brasil, 1970 a 2024. Observatório do Clima, São Paulo, November 2025, read from press reports and search excerpts of the release because the report PDF returned HTTP 403. Observation year: 2024.back
13. 10Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (ed.), Balanço Energético Nacional 2026: Relatório Síntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Ministério de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
14. 24Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (ed.), 11º Levantamento da Safra de Grãos 2025/26, released 13 August 2026, as reported by Agência Brasil. CONAB, Brasília. Observation year: 2025/26 (agency estimate).back
15. 7FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026. FAO, Rome, 21 July 2026, Brazil results as reported by the Federal Government on 30 July 2026. Observation year: 2023 to 2025.back
16. 2Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Censo Demográfico 2022: população residente por sexo e idade (SIDRA table 9514). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro. Observation year: 2022.back
17. 5Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Tábuas Completas de Mortalidade 2024. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 28 November 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.back
18. 46International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Brazil,” Press Release No. 26/257, with staff projections. IMF, Washington DC, 23 July 2026. Observation year: 2025 (staff estimates) and 2026.back
19. 39T. E. Lovejoy and C. Nobre, “Amazon tipping point,” Science Advances, vol. 4, no. 2, eaat2340, 2018. Observation year: 2018.back
20. 40B. M. Flores, A. Montoya, I. Staal et al., “Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system,” Nature, vol. 626, pp. 555–564, 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
21. 43R. Rajão, B. Soares-Filho, F. Nunes et al., “The rotten apples of Brazil’s agribusiness,” Science, vol. 369, pp. 246–248, 2020. Observation year: 2020.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007

The 2024 Rio Grande do Sul floods affected about 2.4 million people in 478 of the state’s 497 municipalities, and the joint assessment estimates their effects at R$88.9 billion, 69% of it in productive sectors.

Implication

Floods in one state hit production, housing and lifelines at once. The assessment reports that visible damage is only about half of the economic effect, with the rest in lost output and cascading losses to small firms and farms¹⁵. The state’s civil defence recorded 185 confirmed deaths, 23 people missing and a peak of 581,638 displaced people¹⁶.

What would move it

Progress on levees and pumping, the next rainy season in the south, early warning coverage and updated master plans would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

   Gross greenhouse-gas emissions fell 16.7% in 2024 to 2,145 Mt CO₂e, led by lower land-use change; net emissions were 1.49 Gt CO₂e. SEEG is a civil-society estimate, not the official inventory.⁹

2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

   The 2035 target is a net reduction of 59 to 67% below 2005, equal to 0.85 to 1.05 Gt CO₂e on the latest inventory data.⁸

2.3Biodiversity

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-BIO-003

   The PRODES estimate for the Amazon was 5,796 km² for August 2024 to July 2025, 11.08% below the previous year; MapBiomas counted 984,794 hectares lost nationally in 2025, 20.6% fewer than in 2024.¹¹¹²

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-BIO-004

   About 30 million hectares burned in 2024 and about 12.7 million in 2025, against an annual mean of 18.4 million.¹³¹⁴

2.4Energy

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005

   Renewables supplied 86.8% of electricity in 2025. Hydropower fell 4.8% to 401.4 TWh while gas generation rose 22.7%, and wind and solar together supplied 26.4%.¹⁰

2.5Water

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006

   The Negro River at Manaus fell to 12.70 m in October 2023 and to 12.66 m in October 2024, record lows in a gauge record from 1902.²¹⁴⁴

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007

   The 2024 Rio Grande do Sul floods affected about 2.4 million people in 478 of 497 municipalities and caused 185 confirmed deaths; effects are estimated at R$88.9 billion.¹⁵¹⁶

2.6Food

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-FOO-008

   The 2025/26 grain harvest is estimated at 360.8 Mt on 83.5 million hectares, and agricultural value added grew 11.7% in 2025.³²⁴

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009

   Brazil stayed outside the FAO Hunger Map; moderate or severe food insecurity was 9.6% in 2023 to 2025, and 3.2% of households were in severe insecurity in 2024.⁶⁷

2.7Health

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-HLT-010

   Dengue caused 6,484,890 probable cases and 5,972 confirmed deaths in 2024; WHO had already counted 6.3 million suspected cases in Brazil by 30 April. Life expectancy reached 76.6 years.⁵¹⁷⁴⁵

2.8Finance

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011

   General government gross debt was 93.3% of GDP in 2025 on IMF definitions, with the policy rate at 14.0% at end-2025.⁴⁶

2.9Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a strong El Niño drought that lowers Amazon rivers and hydropower while fire and thermal dispatch rise together. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 15World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and ECLAC (eds.), “BID, CEPAL e Grupo Banco Mundial estimam que atuação tempestiva evitou impacto de 1,1 ponto percentual do PIB no Rio Grande do Sul,” press release on the joint Damage and Loss Assessment of the 2024 floods. World Bank, Brasília, 28 November 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
2. 16Governo do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, Defesa Civil (ed.), “Situação nos municípios,” SOS Rio Grande do Sul, state portal, last updated 19 August 2025. Porto Alegre. Observation year: 2024 (event of April and May 2024).back
3. 9Observatório do Clima (ed.), SEEG 13: Análise das emissões brasileiras de gases de efeito estufa e suas implicações para as metas climáticas do Brasil, 1970 a 2024. Observatório do Clima, São Paulo, November 2025, read from press reports and search excerpts of the release because the report PDF returned HTTP 403. Observation year: 2024.back
4. 8Federative Republic of Brazil (ed.), Brazil’s Nationally Determined Contribution: National determination to contribute and transform (second NDC). Submission to the UNFCCC, Brasília, November 2024. Observation year: 2024 (2005 reference; target year 2035).back
5. 11Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), Estimativa de desmatamento na Amazônia Legal para 2025 é de 5.796 km², Nota técnica, Programa BiomasBR (PRODES). INPE, São José dos Campos, October 2025. Observation year: 2025 (August 2024 to July 2025).back
6. 12MapBiomas Alerta (ed.), Relatório Anual do Desmatamento no Brasil, RAD 2025: Destaques (factsheet, version of 26 May 2026). MapBiomas, São Paulo, 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
7. 13MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2024: primeiro Relatório Anual do Fogo. MapBiomas, São Paulo, 24 June 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
8. 14MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2025: segunda edição do Relatório Anual do Fogo no Brasil, released 21 July 2026, as reported by Correio Braziliense, “Área queimada no Brasil cai para 12,7 milhões de hectares em 2025, aponta MapBiomas,” July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
9. 10Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (ed.), Balanço Energético Nacional 2026: Relatório Síntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Ministério de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
10. 21Serviço Geológico do Brasil (ed.), Negro River gauge at the port of Manaus, level of 12.66 m on 4 October 2024, as reported by the Associated Press, “Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years,” October 2024. SGB, Manaus. Observation year: 2024.back
11. 44J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., “The new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,” Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back
12. 3Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), “PIB cresce 2,3% em 2025 e fecha o ano em R$ 12,7 trilhões,” Contas Nacionais Trimestrais. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 March 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
13. 24Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (ed.), 11º Levantamento da Safra de Grãos 2025/26, released 13 August 2026, as reported by Agência Brasil. CONAB, Brasília. Observation year: 2025/26 (agency estimate).back
14. 6Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua: Segurança Alimentar 2024. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 10 October 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.back
15. 7FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026. FAO, Rome, 21 July 2026, Brazil results as reported by the Federal Government on 30 July 2026. Observation year: 2023 to 2025.back
16. 5Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Tábuas Completas de Mortalidade 2024. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 28 November 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.back
17. 17Ministério da Saúde (ed.), Painel de Monitoramento das Arboviroses, data to 28 December 2024, as reported by Agência Brasil, “Casos de dengue em 2024 passam de 6,4 milhões; mortes somam 5,9 mil,” January 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
18. 45World Health Organization (ed.), “Dengue: global situation,” Disease Outbreak News, 2024-DON518. WHO, Geneva, 30 May 2024. Observation year: 2024 (to 30 April).back
19. 46International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Brazil,” Press Release No. 26/257, with staff projections. IMF, Washington DC, 23 July 2026. Observation year: 2025 (staff estimates) and 2026.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 22World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), people using safely managed drinking water and sanitation services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, SH.STA.SMSS.ZS), Brazil. World Bank, Washington DC, data release of 8 October 2026, which post-dates evidence close; see the edition notes. Observation year: 2024 (forest, water, sanitation) and 2025 (protected areas).back
2. 10Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (ed.), Balanço Energético Nacional 2026: Relatório Síntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Ministério de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
3. 24Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (ed.), 11º Levantamento da Safra de Grãos 2025/26, released 13 August 2026, as reported by Agência Brasil. CONAB, Brasília. Observation year: 2025/26 (agency estimate).back
4. 17Ministério da Saúde (ed.), Painel de Monitoramento das Arboviroses, data to 28 December 2024, as reported by Agência Brasil, “Casos de dengue em 2024 passam de 6,4 milhões; mortes somam 5,9 mil,” January 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
5. 11Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), Estimativa de desmatamento na Amazônia Legal para 2025 é de 5.796 km², Nota técnica, Programa BiomasBR (PRODES). INPE, São José dos Campos, October 2025. Observation year: 2025 (August 2024 to July 2025).back
6. 15World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and ECLAC (eds.), “BID, CEPAL e Grupo Banco Mundial estimam que atuação tempestiva evitou impacto de 1,1 ponto percentual do PIB no Rio Grande do Sul,” press release on the joint Damage and Loss Assessment of the 2024 floods. World Bank, Brasília, 28 November 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
7. 2Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Censo Demográfico 2022: população residente por sexo e idade (SIDRA table 9514). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro. Observation year: 2022.back
8. 46International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Brazil,” Press Release No. 26/257, with staff projections. IMF, Washington DC, 23 July 2026. Observation year: 2025 (staff estimates) and 2026.back
9. 4Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Síntese de Indicadores Sociais 2025. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 December 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.back
10. 20Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (ed.), balanço climático de 2024: annual mean temperature 25.02 °C, 0.79 °C above the 1991 to 2020 mean, warmest year since 1961, as reported by Brazilian press, January 2025. INMET, Brasília. Observation year: 2024.back
11. 30República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 12.608, de 10 de abril de 2012, institui a Política Nacional de Proteção e Defesa Civil. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2012. Observation year: 2012.back
12. 26República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 15.042, de 11 de dezembro de 2024, institui o Sistema Brasileiro de Comércio de Emissões de Gases de Efeito Estufa (SBCE). Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
13. 29República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 12.187, de 29 de dezembro de 2009, institui a Política Nacional sobre Mudança do Clima. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2009. Observation year: 2009.back
14. 40B. M. Flores, A. Montoya, I. Staal et al., “Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system,” Nature, vol. 626, pp. 555–564, 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
15. 44J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., “The new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,” Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-BRA-CLI-001

   Extreme rainfall and river flooding in the south

   Driver

   intense rainfall in a warming climate

   Exposure

   floodplains, cities, farms

   Vulnerability

   levee and pumping design; settlement in flood zones

   Capacity

   civil defence; recovery finance¹⁵¹⁶

   Cascade

   CLI → WAT → INF, FOO, FIN

   Horizon

   annual

2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-BRA-CLI-002

   Amazon drought, low rivers and fire

   Driver

   El Niño years on a warming baseline

   Exposure

   river transport, riverine communities, forest

   Vulnerability

   dependence on rivers for supply and logistics

   Capacity

   monitoring and fire brigades; reserves not bound

   Cascade

   CLI → WAT → INF, HLT, BIO

   Horizon

   seasonal

3. InferredEQL 3RSK-BRA-ENE-003

   Hydropower shortfall in a dry year

   Driver

   below-normal inflows across main basins

   Exposure

   about half of power generation¹⁰

   Vulnerability

   basin concentration; storage margin not bound

   Capacity

   gas, biomass, wind and solar growth¹⁰

   Cascade

   WAT → ENE → FOO, FIN

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

4. InferredEQL 3RSK-BRA-BIO-004

   Amazon forest loss and degradation

   Driver

   land conversion, fire and drought together

   Exposure

   forest, regional rainfall, carbon stock

   Vulnerability

   degradation not captured by clear-cut loss

   Capacity

   monitoring since 1988¹¹; falling loss rates

   Cascade

   BIO → CLI → WAT, FOO

   Horizon

   30 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 15World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and ECLAC (eds.), “BID, CEPAL e Grupo Banco Mundial estimam que atuação tempestiva evitou impacto de 1,1 ponto percentual do PIB no Rio Grande do Sul,” press release on the joint Damage and Loss Assessment of the 2024 floods. World Bank, Brasília, 28 November 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
2. 16Governo do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, Defesa Civil (ed.), “Situação nos municípios,” SOS Rio Grande do Sul, state portal, last updated 19 August 2025. Porto Alegre. Observation year: 2024 (event of April and May 2024).back
3. 10Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (ed.), Balanço Energético Nacional 2026: Relatório Síntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Ministério de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
4. 11Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), Estimativa de desmatamento na Amazônia Legal para 2025 é de 5.796 km², Nota técnica, Programa BiomasBR (PRODES). INPE, São José dos Campos, October 2025. Observation year: 2025 (August 2024 to July 2025).back
5. 12MapBiomas Alerta (ed.), Relatório Anual do Desmatamento no Brasil, RAD 2025: Destaques (factsheet, version of 26 May 2026). MapBiomas, São Paulo, 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
6. 30República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 12.608, de 10 de abril de 2012, institui a Política Nacional de Proteção e Defesa Civil. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2012. Observation year: 2012.back
7. 8Federative Republic of Brazil (ed.), Brazil’s Nationally Determined Contribution: National determination to contribute and transform (second NDC). Submission to the UNFCCC, Brasília, November 2024. Observation year: 2024 (2005 reference; target year 2035).back
8. 4Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Síntese de Indicadores Sociais 2025. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 December 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.back
9. 27Conselho Monetário Nacional (ed.), Resolução CMN nº 4.943, de 15 de setembro de 2021, gerenciamento de riscos social, ambiental e climático. Banco Central do Brasil, Brasília, 2021. Observation year: 2021 (in force from 2022).back
10. 40B. M. Flores, A. Montoya, I. Staal et al., “Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system,” Nature, vol. 626, pp. 555–564, 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
11. 44J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., “The new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,” Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-BRA-DRT-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

a strong El Niño year with record warmth and below-normal rainfall in northern and eastern Amazonia, followed by a dry season with high fire weather

Analogues

Amazon drought of 2023⁴⁴; river lows of 2024²¹; hydropower fall of 2025¹⁰

Interventions

none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   CLI → WAT

   rivers fall to record lows; supply and navigation stressed

   Negro River 2023, 2024

2. 2

   WAT → INF

   river ports and grain shipments disrupted

   Madeira River 2024²¹

3. 3

   WAT → ENE

   hydropower falls and thermal dispatch rises

   hydro −4.8%, 2025¹⁰

4. 4

   CLI → BIO

   fire season burns forest and savanna

   ≈30 million ha, 2024¹³

5. 5

   BIO → HLT

   smoke and heat load on health services (not bound)

   gap · Ministry of Health

6. 6

   ENE → FIN

   power cost and fiscal pressure rise (not bound)

   gap · grid operator, Treasury

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-BRA-DRT-01 would travel through Brazil’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Brazil 2026, scenario SCN-BRA-DRT-01 (2026); Brazil 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 44J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., “The new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,” Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back
2. 21Serviço Geológico do Brasil (ed.), Negro River gauge at the port of Manaus, level of 12.66 m on 4 October 2024, as reported by the Associated Press, “Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years,” October 2024. SGB, Manaus. Observation year: 2024.back
3. 10Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (ed.), Balanço Energético Nacional 2026: Relatório Síntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Ministério de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
4. 13MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2024: primeiro Relatório Anual do Fogo. MapBiomas, São Paulo, 24 June 2025. Observation year: 2024.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for Brazil. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• SUBMITTED
• UNDER REVIEW
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about Brazil’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?

Sources searched

peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 26República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 15.042, de 11 de dezembro de 2024, institui o Sistema Brasileiro de Comércio de Emissões de Gases de Efeito Estufa (SBCE). Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
2. 27Conselho Monetário Nacional (ed.), Resolução CMN nº 4.943, de 15 de setembro de 2021, gerenciamento de riscos social, ambiental e climático. Banco Central do Brasil, Brasília, 2021. Observation year: 2021 (in force from 2022).back
3. 46International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Brazil,” Press Release No. 26/257, with staff projections. IMF, Washington DC, 23 July 2026. Observation year: 2025 (staff estimates) and 2026.back
4. 34UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year: 2015.back
5. 8Federative Republic of Brazil (ed.), Brazil’s Nationally Determined Contribution: National determination to contribute and transform (second NDC). Submission to the UNFCCC, Brasília, November 2024. Observation year: 2024 (2005 reference; target year 2035).back
6. 29República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 12.187, de 29 de dezembro de 2009, institui a Política Nacional sobre Mudança do Clima. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2009. Observation year: 2009.back
7. 28República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 14.026, de 15 de julho de 2020, atualiza o marco legal do saneamento básico. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2020. Observation year: 2020.back
8. 30República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 12.608, de 10 de abril de 2012, institui a Política Nacional de Proteção e Defesa Civil. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2012. Observation year: 2012.back
9. 31República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 14.119, de 13 de janeiro de 2021, institui a Política Nacional de Pagamento por Serviços Ambientais. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2021. Observation year: 2021.back
10. 32Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year: 2022.back
11. 33UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year: 2015.back
12. 25Ministério das Relações Exteriores (ed.), “Over USD 5.5 billion announced for Tropical Forest Forever Facility as 53 countries endorse the historic TFFF launch declaration.” Government of Brazil, Brasília, November 2025. Observation year: 2025.back
13. 40B. M. Flores, A. Montoya, I. Staal et al., “Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system,” Nature, vol. 626, pp. 555–564, 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
14. 39T. E. Lovejoy and C. Nobre, “Amazon tipping point,” Science Advances, vol. 4, no. 2, eaat2340, 2018. Observation year: 2018.back
15. 41C. A. Boulton, T. M. Lenton and N. Boers, “Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 12, 2022. Observation year: 2022.back
16. 42D. M. Lapola, P. Pinho, J. Barlow et al., “The drivers and impacts of Amazon forest degradation,” Science, vol. 379, eabp8622, 2023. Observation year: 2023.back
17. 44J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., “The new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,” Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back
18. 43R. Rajão, B. Soares-Filho, F. Nunes et al., “The rotten apples of Brazil’s agribusiness,” Science, vol. 369, pp. 246–248, 2020. Observation year: 2020.back
19. 36E. Castellanos, M. F. Lemos, L. Astigarraga et al., “Central and South America,” in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, chapter 12. Cambridge University Press, 2022. Observation year: 2022.back
20. 35H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year: 2023.back
21. 37P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. Observation year: 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054back
22. 38J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year: 2018.back
23. 18World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2025. WMO, Geneva, 18 May 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
24. 11Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), Estimativa de desmatamento na Amazônia Legal para 2025 é de 5.796 km², Nota técnica, Programa BiomasBR (PRODES). INPE, São José dos Campos, October 2025. Observation year: 2025 (August 2024 to July 2025).back
25. 10Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (ed.), Balanço Energético Nacional 2026: Relatório Síntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Ministério de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
26. 1Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Estimativas da população residente no Brasil e unidades da federação com data de referência em 1º de julho de 2026 (SIDRA table 6579). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 28 August 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
27. 2Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Censo Demográfico 2022: população residente por sexo e idade (SIDRA table 9514). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro. Observation year: 2022.back
28. 3Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), “PIB cresce 2,3% em 2025 e fecha o ano em R$ 12,7 trilhões,” Contas Nacionais Trimestrais. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 March 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
29. 4Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Síntese de Indicadores Sociais 2025. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 December 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.back
30. 6Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua: Segurança Alimentar 2024. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 10 October 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.back
31. 12MapBiomas Alerta (ed.), Relatório Anual do Desmatamento no Brasil, RAD 2025: Destaques (factsheet, version of 26 May 2026). MapBiomas, São Paulo, 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
32. 13MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2024: primeiro Relatório Anual do Fogo. MapBiomas, São Paulo, 24 June 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
33. 14MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2025: segunda edição do Relatório Anual do Fogo no Brasil, released 21 July 2026, as reported by Correio Braziliense, “Área queimada no Brasil cai para 12,7 milhões de hectares em 2025, aponta MapBiomas,” July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
34. 9Observatório do Clima (ed.), SEEG 13: Análise das emissões brasileiras de gases de efeito estufa e suas implicações para as metas climáticas do Brasil, 1970 a 2024. Observatório do Clima, São Paulo, November 2025, read from press reports and search excerpts of the release because the report PDF returned HTTP 403. Observation year: 2024.back
35. 15World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and ECLAC (eds.), “BID, CEPAL e Grupo Banco Mundial estimam que atuação tempestiva evitou impacto de 1,1 ponto percentual do PIB no Rio Grande do Sul,” press release on the joint Damage and Loss Assessment of the 2024 floods. World Bank, Brasília, 28 November 2024. Observation year: 2024.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. A-01

   How would a strong El Niño drought lower Amazon rivers and hydropower, and how long would navigation, supply and power margins take to recover?

   INI-BRA-CLI-01 · drought and river compound test; first output: dependency graph for two basins.

2. A-02

   How much hydropower and reservoir margin remains before thermal dispatch must rise, and at what emissions and cost?

   INI-BRA-ENE-02 · hydro and thermal resilience; first output: storage and dispatch register.

3. A-03

   How exposed are fertiliser, feed and export logistics to river lows and port disruption?

   INI-BRA-FOO-03 · food logistics exposure; first output: commodity and route table.

4. A-04

   How large is the heat, smoke and dengue load on health services in a hot, dry year?

   INI-BRA-HLT-04 · heat, smoke and vector load; first output: surge baseline for five states.

5. A-05

   Where do flood and drought losses fall on the uninsured and on public budgets?

   INI-BRA-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-state loss table.

6. A-06

   How do forest loss, degradation and fire interact with regional rainfall?

   INI-BRA-BIO-01 · workstream; first output: biome interaction note.

7. A-07

   How resilient are river-basin cities to heavy rain after the 2024 floods?

   To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only listed?

   National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

Brazil is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in Brazil from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

1. 01

   One National Agenda

   bounded national questions for the year

   DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

2. 02

   National Desk

   coordination, records, routing and continuity

   DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

3. 03

   National Model

   the country as a system of systems

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

4. 04

   National Portfolio

   risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

   7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

5. 05

   Foundry

   continuous computational environment

   PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-BRA-2027-Q1

6. 06

   Reports

   quarterly and annual publication

   BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

7. 07

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

8. 08

   Evidence and correction

   after-action, correction and renewal

   OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-BRA-2027-01 · Drought, river and hydropower Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• quarterly publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 19World Meteorological Organization (ed.), “Strong El Niño expected to intensify,” news release. WMO, Geneva, 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
2. 21Serviço Geológico do Brasil (ed.), Negro River gauge at the port of Manaus, level of 12.66 m on 4 October 2024, as reported by the Associated Press, “Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years,” October 2024. SGB, Manaus. Observation year: 2024.back
3. 44J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., “The new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,” Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back
4. 10Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (ed.), Balanço Energético Nacional 2026: Relatório Síntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Ministério de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Brazil holds large river basins, yet its water risk is regional and event-driven: floods in the south, low rivers in the Amazon and hydropower tied to rainfall. National sewage collection and reservoir storage were not bound at evidence close.

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Electricity was 86.8% renewable in 2025, with hydropower about half of generation. When hydropower fell 4.8%, gas generation rose 22.7%. Emissions from energy were 442.3 Mt CO₂e.

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Brazil is a large grain and oilseed producer. The 2025/26 harvest is estimated at 360.8 Mt, and the country stayed outside the FAO Hunger Map. Fertiliser and feed dependence were not bound.

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Life expectancy reached 76.6 years in 2024 and poverty fell, yet dengue caused 5,972 confirmed deaths that year. Heat-attributable deaths were not bound at evidence close.

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Forest covers 58.5% of land and 29.4% of the territory is protected. Deforestation fell in 2025, while fire burned about 30 million hectares in 2024 and 12.7 million in 2025.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 22World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), people using safely managed drinking water and sanitation services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, SH.STA.SMSS.ZS), Brazil. World Bank, Washington DC, data release of 8 October 2026, which post-dates evidence close; see the edition notes. Observation year: 2024 (forest, water, sanitation) and 2025 (protected areas).back
2. 21Serviço Geológico do Brasil (ed.), Negro River gauge at the port of Manaus, level of 12.66 m on 4 October 2024, as reported by the Associated Press, “Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years,” October 2024. SGB, Manaus. Observation year: 2024.back
3. 23Ministério das Cidades (ed.), Sistema Nacional de Informações em Saneamento Básico, SINISA 2024 (reference year 2023): resultados e indicadores. Ministério das Cidades, Brasília, 2025. Observation year: 2023 (listed as the source that would fill a gap; figures not used).back
4. 15World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and ECLAC (eds.), “BID, CEPAL e Grupo Banco Mundial estimam que atuação tempestiva evitou impacto de 1,1 ponto percentual do PIB no Rio Grande do Sul,” press release on the joint Damage and Loss Assessment of the 2024 floods. World Bank, Brasília, 28 November 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
5. 16Governo do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, Defesa Civil (ed.), “Situação nos municípios,” SOS Rio Grande do Sul, state portal, last updated 19 August 2025. Porto Alegre. Observation year: 2024 (event of April and May 2024).back
6. 44J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., “The new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,” Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back
7. 28República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 14.026, de 15 de julho de 2020, atualiza o marco legal do saneamento básico. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2020. Observation year: 2020.back
8. 10Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (ed.), Balanço Energético Nacional 2026: Relatório Síntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Ministério de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
9. 24Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (ed.), 11º Levantamento da Safra de Grãos 2025/26, released 13 August 2026, as reported by Agência Brasil. CONAB, Brasília. Observation year: 2025/26 (agency estimate).back
10. 7FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026. FAO, Rome, 21 July 2026, Brazil results as reported by the Federal Government on 30 July 2026. Observation year: 2023 to 2025.back
11. 3Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), “PIB cresce 2,3% em 2025 e fecha o ano em R$ 12,7 trilhões,” Contas Nacionais Trimestrais. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 March 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
12. 6Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua: Segurança Alimentar 2024. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 10 October 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.back
13. 2Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Censo Demográfico 2022: população residente por sexo e idade (SIDRA table 9514). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro. Observation year: 2022.back
14. 5Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Tábuas Completas de Mortalidade 2024. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 28 November 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.back
15. 17Ministério da Saúde (ed.), Painel de Monitoramento das Arboviroses, data to 28 December 2024, as reported by Agência Brasil, “Casos de dengue em 2024 passam de 6,4 milhões; mortes somam 5,9 mil,” January 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
16. 4Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Síntese de Indicadores Sociais 2025. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 December 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.back
17. 12MapBiomas Alerta (ed.), Relatório Anual do Desmatamento no Brasil, RAD 2025: Destaques (factsheet, version of 26 May 2026). MapBiomas, São Paulo, 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
18. 11Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), Estimativa de desmatamento na Amazônia Legal para 2025 é de 5.796 km², Nota técnica, Programa BiomasBR (PRODES). INPE, São José dos Campos, October 2025. Observation year: 2025 (August 2024 to July 2025).back
19. 13MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2024: primeiro Relatório Anual do Fogo. MapBiomas, São Paulo, 24 June 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
20. 14MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2025: segunda edição do Relatório Anual do Fogo no Brasil, released 21 July 2026, as reported by Correio Braziliense, “Área queimada no Brasil cai para 12,7 milhões de hectares em 2025, aponta MapBiomas,” July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
21. 39T. E. Lovejoy and C. Nobre, “Amazon tipping point,” Science Advances, vol. 4, no. 2, eaat2340, 2018. Observation year: 2018.back
22. 40B. M. Flores, A. Montoya, I. Staal et al., “Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system,” Nature, vol. 626, pp. 555–564, 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
23. 41C. A. Boulton, T. M. Lenton and N. Boers, “Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 12, 2022. Observation year: 2022.back

A.1Methods

The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, National Model v0

Model ID

MDL-BRA-NATIONAL · v0.1

Purpose

represent Brazil as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

national scale; not for state or asset-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.

Cut ID

NQ-BRA-2026-Q0-1

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

48 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

NQ-BRA-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

• SEEG 13⁹ · method and sector boundaries
• National greenhouse-gas inventory · latest submission year
• MapBiomas annual reports¹²¹⁴ · definitions of loss and burned area
• Ministry of Health arbovirus panel¹⁷ · counting rules

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition, net greenhouse-gas emissions

Construct

annual emissions minus removals by protected areas and secondary forests (SEEG definition)

Unit

Mt CO₂e or Gt CO₂e, 100-year potentials

Scope

calendar year, economy-wide

Source

SEEG 13⁹; target basis in the contribution⁸

Revision

back-revised in each SEEG release

Known limits

differs in method from the national inventory; land-use values carry wide uncertainty

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 10Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (ed.), Balanço Energético Nacional 2026: Relatório Síntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Ministério de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
2. 11Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), Estimativa de desmatamento na Amazônia Legal para 2025 é de 5.796 km², Nota técnica, Programa BiomasBR (PRODES). INPE, São José dos Campos, October 2025. Observation year: 2025 (August 2024 to July 2025).back
3. 9Observatório do Clima (ed.), SEEG 13: Análise das emissões brasileiras de gases de efeito estufa e suas implicações para as metas climáticas do Brasil, 1970 a 2024. Observatório do Clima, São Paulo, November 2025, read from press reports and search excerpts of the release because the report PDF returned HTTP 403. Observation year: 2024.back
4. 12MapBiomas Alerta (ed.), Relatório Anual do Desmatamento no Brasil, RAD 2025: Destaques (factsheet, version of 26 May 2026). MapBiomas, São Paulo, 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
5. 14MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2025: segunda edição do Relatório Anual do Fogo no Brasil, released 21 July 2026, as reported by Correio Braziliense, “Área queimada no Brasil cai para 12,7 milhões de hectares em 2025, aponta MapBiomas,” July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
6. 17Ministério da Saúde (ed.), Painel de Monitoramento das Arboviroses, data to 28 December 2024, as reported by Agência Brasil, “Casos de dengue em 2024 passam de 6,4 milhões; mortes somam 5,9 mil,” January 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
7. 8Federative Republic of Brazil (ed.), Brazil’s Nationally Determined Contribution: National determination to contribute and transform (second NDC). Submission to the UNFCCC, Brasília, November 2024. Observation year: 2024 (2005 reference; target year 2035).back

B.1The indicator set

B.2National source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• WAT
• ENE
• FOO
• HLT
• BIO
• CLI
• INF
• FIN
• TRD
• MIN

B.3Regional reading, Brazil by region

Map plates for every state follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form.

Resident population by macro-region, 1 July 2026 (Central-West 17.4 million)¹

B.4Atlas card, Rio Grande do Sul

• state
• southern Brazil
• 2024 floods
• river basin

Systems in view

water, roads, power, housing and production

Defining event

floods of April and May 2024¹⁵¹⁶

Couplings

CLI → WAT → INF; WAT → FOO; INF → FIN

Capability evidence

state civil defence response and recovery assessment¹⁵¹⁶

Gaps

levee and pumping performance; insurance take-up; restoration times

Agenda items

A-05 · A-07

B.5Brazil system card

The card through which Brazil appears in the South America regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Context

Archetype

upper-middle-income continental economy with a hydro-based grid and a large forest estate

Population

214.2 million (2026)¹

Trade

large agricultural exporter; export routes include river ports²¹²⁴

Hazard

flood effects of R$88.9 billion in one state, 2024¹⁵

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

NQ-BRA-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Estimativas da população residente no Brasil e unidades da federação com data de referência em 1º de julho de 2026 (SIDRA table 6579). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 28 August 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
2. 2Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Censo Demográfico 2022: população residente por sexo e idade (SIDRA table 9514). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro. Observation year: 2022.back
3. 3Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), “PIB cresce 2,3% em 2025 e fecha o ano em R$ 12,7 trilhões,” Contas Nacionais Trimestrais. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 March 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
4. 4Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Síntese de Indicadores Sociais 2025. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 December 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.back
5. 5Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Tábuas Completas de Mortalidade 2024. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 28 November 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.back
6. 6Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua: Segurança Alimentar 2024. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 10 October 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.back
7. 7FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026. FAO, Rome, 21 July 2026, Brazil results as reported by the Federal Government on 30 July 2026. Observation year: 2023 to 2025.back
8. 9Observatório do Clima (ed.), SEEG 13: Análise das emissões brasileiras de gases de efeito estufa e suas implicações para as metas climáticas do Brasil, 1970 a 2024. Observatório do Clima, São Paulo, November 2025, read from press reports and search excerpts of the release because the report PDF returned HTTP 403. Observation year: 2024.back
9. 8Federative Republic of Brazil (ed.), Brazil’s Nationally Determined Contribution: National determination to contribute and transform (second NDC). Submission to the UNFCCC, Brasília, November 2024. Observation year: 2024 (2005 reference; target year 2035).back
10. 10Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (ed.), Balanço Energético Nacional 2026: Relatório Síntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Ministério de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
11. 11Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), Estimativa de desmatamento na Amazônia Legal para 2025 é de 5.796 km², Nota técnica, Programa BiomasBR (PRODES). INPE, São José dos Campos, October 2025. Observation year: 2025 (August 2024 to July 2025).back
12. 12MapBiomas Alerta (ed.), Relatório Anual do Desmatamento no Brasil, RAD 2025: Destaques (factsheet, version of 26 May 2026). MapBiomas, São Paulo, 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
13. 14MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2025: segunda edição do Relatório Anual do Fogo no Brasil, released 21 July 2026, as reported by Correio Braziliense, “Área queimada no Brasil cai para 12,7 milhões de hectares em 2025, aponta MapBiomas,” July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
14. 15World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and ECLAC (eds.), “BID, CEPAL e Grupo Banco Mundial estimam que atuação tempestiva evitou impacto de 1,1 ponto percentual do PIB no Rio Grande do Sul,” press release on the joint Damage and Loss Assessment of the 2024 floods. World Bank, Brasília, 28 November 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
15. 17Ministério da Saúde (ed.), Painel de Monitoramento das Arboviroses, data to 28 December 2024, as reported by Agência Brasil, “Casos de dengue em 2024 passam de 6,4 milhões; mortes somam 5,9 mil,” January 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
16. 24Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (ed.), 11º Levantamento da Safra de Grãos 2025/26, released 13 August 2026, as reported by Agência Brasil. CONAB, Brasília. Observation year: 2025/26 (agency estimate).back
17. 22World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), people using safely managed drinking water and sanitation services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, SH.STA.SMSS.ZS), Brazil. World Bank, Washington DC, data release of 8 October 2026, which post-dates evidence close; see the edition notes. Observation year: 2024 (forest, water, sanitation) and 2025 (protected areas).back
18. 46International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Brazil,” Press Release No. 26/257, with staff projections. IMF, Washington DC, 23 July 2026. Observation year: 2025 (staff estimates) and 2026.back
19. 23Ministério das Cidades (ed.), Sistema Nacional de Informações em Saneamento Básico, SINISA 2024 (reference year 2023): resultados e indicadores. Ministério das Cidades, Brasília, 2025. Observation year: 2023 (listed as the source that would fill a gap; figures not used).back
20. 47S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
21. 48S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
22. 13MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2024: primeiro Relatório Anual do Fogo. MapBiomas, São Paulo, 24 June 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
23. 16Governo do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, Defesa Civil (ed.), “Situação nos municípios,” SOS Rio Grande do Sul, state portal, last updated 19 August 2025. Porto Alegre. Observation year: 2024 (event of April and May 2024).back
24. 21Serviço Geológico do Brasil (ed.), Negro River gauge at the port of Manaus, level of 12.66 m on 4 October 2024, as reported by the Associated Press, “Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years,” October 2024. SGB, Manaus. Observation year: 2024.back
25. 44J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., “The new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,” Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back

C.148 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Estimativas da população residente no Brasil e unidades da federação com data de referência em 1º de julho de 2026 (SIDRA table 6579). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 28 August 2026. Observation year: 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6
2. 2Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Censo Demográfico 2022: população residente por sexo e idade (SIDRA table 9514). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro. Observation year: 2022. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
3. 3Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), “PIB cresce 2,3% em 2025 e fecha o ano em R$ 12,7 trilhões,” Contas Nacionais Trimestrais. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 March 2026. Observation year: 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
4. 4Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Síntese de Indicadores Sociais 2025. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 December 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
5. 5Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Tábuas Completas de Mortalidade 2024. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 28 November 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 8
6. 6Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua: Segurança Alimentar 2024. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 10 October 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
7. 7FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026. FAO, Rome, 21 July 2026, Brazil results as reported by the Federal Government on 30 July 2026. Observation year: 2023 to 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 8
8. 8Federative Republic of Brazil (ed.), Brazil’s Nationally Determined Contribution: National determination to contribute and transform (second NDC). Submission to the UNFCCC, Brasília, November 2024. Observation year: 2024 (2005 reference; target year 2035). Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
9. 9Observatório do Clima (ed.), SEEG 13: Análise das emissões brasileiras de gases de efeito estufa e suas implicações para as metas climáticas do Brasil, 1970 a 2024. Observatório do Clima, São Paulo, November 2025, read from press reports and search excerpts of the release because the report PDF returned HTTP 403. Observation year: 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
10. 10Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (ed.), Balanço Energético Nacional 2026: Relatório Síntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Ministério de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
11. 11Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), Estimativa de desmatamento na Amazônia Legal para 2025 é de 5.796 km², Nota técnica, Programa BiomasBR (PRODES). INPE, São José dos Campos, October 2025. Observation year: 2025 (August 2024 to July 2025). Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
12. 12MapBiomas Alerta (ed.), Relatório Anual do Desmatamento no Brasil, RAD 2025: Destaques (factsheet, version of 26 May 2026). MapBiomas, São Paulo, 2026. Observation year: 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
13. 13MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2024: primeiro Relatório Anual do Fogo. MapBiomas, São Paulo, 24 June 2025. Observation year: 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
14. 14MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2025: segunda edição do Relatório Anual do Fogo no Brasil, released 21 July 2026, as reported by Correio Braziliense, “Área queimada no Brasil cai para 12,7 milhões de hectares em 2025, aponta MapBiomas,” July 2026. Observation year: 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
15. 15World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and ECLAC (eds.), “BID, CEPAL e Grupo Banco Mundial estimam que atuação tempestiva evitou impacto de 1,1 ponto percentual do PIB no Rio Grande do Sul,” press release on the joint Damage and Loss Assessment of the 2024 floods. World Bank, Brasília, 28 November 2024. Observation year: 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
16. 16Governo do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, Defesa Civil (ed.), “Situação nos municípios,” SOS Rio Grande do Sul, state portal, last updated 19 August 2025. Porto Alegre. Observation year: 2024 (event of April and May 2024). Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 8
17. 17Ministério da Saúde (ed.), Painel de Monitoramento das Arboviroses, data to 28 December 2024, as reported by Agência Brasil, “Casos de dengue em 2024 passam de 6,4 milhões; mortes somam 5,9 mil,” January 2025. Observation year: 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
18. 18World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2025. WMO, Geneva, 18 May 2026. Observation year: 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
19. 19World Meteorological Organization (ed.), “Strong El Niño expected to intensify,” news release. WMO, Geneva, 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2026. Cited in chapter 7
20. 20Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (ed.), balanço climático de 2024: annual mean temperature 25.02 °C, 0.79 °C above the 1991 to 2020 mean, warmest year since 1961, as reported by Brazilian press, January 2025. INMET, Brasília. Observation year: 2024. Cited in chapter 3
21. 21Serviço Geológico do Brasil (ed.), Negro River gauge at the port of Manaus, level of 12.66 m on 4 October 2024, as reported by the Associated Press, “Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years,” October 2024. SGB, Manaus. Observation year: 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 7, chapter 8
22. 22World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), people using safely managed drinking water and sanitation services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, SH.STA.SMSS.ZS), Brazil. World Bank, Washington DC, data release of 8 October 2026, which post-dates evidence close; see the edition notes. Observation year: 2024 (forest, water, sanitation) and 2025 (protected areas). Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
23. 23Ministério das Cidades (ed.), Sistema Nacional de Informações em Saneamento Básico, SINISA 2024 (reference year 2023): resultados e indicadores. Ministério das Cidades, Brasília, 2025. Observation year: 2023 (listed as the source that would fill a gap; figures not used). Cited in chapter 8
24. 24Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (ed.), 11º Levantamento da Safra de Grãos 2025/26, released 13 August 2026, as reported by Agência Brasil. CONAB, Brasília. Observation year: 2025/26 (agency estimate). Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
25. 25Ministério das Relações Exteriores (ed.), “Over USD 5.5 billion announced for Tropical Forest Forever Facility as 53 countries endorse the historic TFFF launch declaration.” Government of Brazil, Brasília, November 2025. Observation year: 2025. Cited in chapter 6
26. 26República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 15.042, de 11 de dezembro de 2024, institui o Sistema Brasileiro de Comércio de Emissões de Gases de Efeito Estufa (SBCE). Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2024. Observation year: 2024. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
27. 27Conselho Monetário Nacional (ed.), Resolução CMN nº 4.943, de 15 de setembro de 2021, gerenciamento de riscos social, ambiental e climático. Banco Central do Brasil, Brasília, 2021. Observation year: 2021 (in force from 2022). Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
28. 28República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 14.026, de 15 de julho de 2020, atualiza o marco legal do saneamento básico. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2020. Observation year: 2020. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
29. 29República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 12.187, de 29 de dezembro de 2009, institui a Política Nacional sobre Mudança do Clima. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2009. Observation year: 2009. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
30. 30República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 12.608, de 10 de abril de 2012, institui a Política Nacional de Proteção e Defesa Civil. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2012. Observation year: 2012. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
31. 31República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 14.119, de 13 de janeiro de 2021, institui a Política Nacional de Pagamento por Serviços Ambientais. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2021. Observation year: 2021. Cited in chapter 6
32. 32Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year: 2022. Cited in chapter 6
33. 33UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year: 2015. Cited in chapter 6
34. 34UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year: 2015. Cited in chapter 6
35. 35H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year: 2023. Cited in chapter 6
36. 36E. Castellanos, M. F. Lemos, L. Astigarraga et al., “Central and South America,” in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, chapter 12. Cambridge University Press, 2022. Observation year: 2022. Cited in chapter 6
37. 37P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. Observation year: 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
38. 38J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year: 2018. Cited in chapter 6
39. 39T. E. Lovejoy and C. Nobre, “Amazon tipping point,” Science Advances, vol. 4, no. 2, eaat2340, 2018. Observation year: 2018. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
40. 40B. M. Flores, A. Montoya, I. Staal et al., “Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system,” Nature, vol. 626, pp. 555–564, 2024. Observation year: 2024. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
41. 41C. A. Boulton, T. M. Lenton and N. Boers, “Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 12, 2022. Observation year: 2022. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
42. 42D. M. Lapola, P. Pinho, J. Barlow et al., “The drivers and impacts of Amazon forest degradation,” Science, vol. 379, eabp8622, 2023. Observation year: 2023. Cited in chapter 6
43. 43R. Rajão, B. Soares-Filho, F. Nunes et al., “The rotten apples of Brazil’s agribusiness,” Science, vol. 369, pp. 246–248, 2020. Observation year: 2020. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
44. 44J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., “The new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,” Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
45. 45World Health Organization (ed.), “Dengue: global situation,” Disease Outbreak News, 2024-DON518. WHO, Geneva, 30 May 2024. Observation year: 2024 (to 30 April). Cited in chapter 2
46. 46International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Brazil,” Press Release No. 26/257, with staff projections. IMF, Washington DC, 23 July 2026. Observation year: 2025 (staff estimates) and 2026. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
47. 47S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year: 2026.
48. 48S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year: 2026.

C.2Publication record

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Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII

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