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Strong El Niño drought across rivers, hydropower and fire

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

3 min read0 figures0 tables4 notesNR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Brazil’s risk runs through water, forest and fire
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Strong El Niño drought across rivers, hydropower and fire
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-BRA-DRT-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
a strong El Niño year with record warmth and below-normal rainfall in northern and eastern Amazonia, followed by a dry season with high fire weather
Analogues
Amazon drought of 202344; river lows of 202421; hydropower fall of 202510
Interventions
none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    CLI → WAT

    rivers fall to record lows; supply and navigation stressed

    Negro River 2023, 2024

  2. 2

    WAT → INF

    river ports and grain shipments disrupted

    Madeira River 202421

  3. 3

    WAT → ENE

    hydropower falls and thermal dispatch rises

    hydro −4.8%, 202510

  4. 4

    CLI → BIO

    fire season burns forest and savanna

    ≈30 million ha, 202413

  5. 5

    BIO → HLT

    smoke and heat load on health services (not bound)

    gap · Ministry of Health

  6. 6

    ENE → FIN

    power cost and fiscal pressure rise (not bound)

    gap · grid operator, Treasury

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-BRA-DRT-01 would travel through Brazil’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Climate to waterRivers fall to record lows; supply and navigation stressed. Analogue or source: Negro River 2023, 2024.Edition BRA, scenario SCN-BRA-DRT-01, step 1
02 Water to infrastructureRiver ports and grain shipments disrupted. Analogue or source: Madeira River 2024 [21].Edition BRA, scenario SCN-BRA-DRT-01, step 2
03 Water to energyHydropower falls and thermal dispatch rises. Analogue or source: hydro −4.8%, 2025 [10].Edition BRA, scenario SCN-BRA-DRT-01, step 3
04 Climate to biodiversityFire season burns forest and savanna. Analogue or source: ≈30 million ha, 2024 [13].Edition BRA, scenario SCN-BRA-DRT-01, step 4
05 Biodiversity to healthSmoke and heat load on health services (not bound). Analogue or source: gap · Ministry of Health.Edition BRA, scenario SCN-BRA-DRT-01, step 5
06 Energy to financePower cost and fiscal pressure rise (not bound). Analogue or source: gap · grid operator, Treasury.Edition BRA, scenario SCN-BRA-DRT-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Brazil 2026, scenario SCN-BRA-DRT-01 (2026); Brazil 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 44J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., “The new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,” Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back
  2. 21Serviço Geológico do Brasil (ed.), Negro River gauge at the port of Manaus, level of 12.66 m on 4 October 2024, as reported by the Associated Press, “Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years,” October 2024. SGB, Manaus. Observation year: 2024.back
  3. 10Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (ed.), Balanço Energético Nacional 2026: Relatório Síntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Ministério de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
  4. 13MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2024: primeiro Relatório Anual do Fogo. MapBiomas, São Paulo, 24 June 2025. Observation year: 2024.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Strong El Niño drought across rivers, hydropower and fire. In Brazil Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Brazil’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Brazil.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines10 / 15 relations

Context

Drought

Low river flows cut irrigation, cooling water and hydropower at once; food prices, nutrition and ecosystems follow.

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
5 of 6
Relations
10 of 15
Coupling
0.68 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Food → Biodiversity · land conversion0.6
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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