Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Brazil Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026

The State of Brazil’s Interdependent Systems. The first annual edition of the Brazil report. It fixes the 2026 reference state, the model, the voice and the positions against which every quarterly edition from Q1 2027 will be measured.

Read the executive summaryStart with chapter 1Cite this report
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi
Desk
GCRI Systems Evidence
Publisher of record
GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Status
Draft in stewardship review; not yet released
ReportsBRA

Country Systems Risk and Resilience

Brazil 2026

The State of Brazil’s Interdependent Systems

Baseline Edition 2026NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Findings12each with its status and source
Sources48numbered, editor first
Chapters and annexes11plus the executive summary
Indicators27in the data appendix, with CSV and JSON

01 · Status

Status and boundaries.

This edition governs nothing and confers no certification. It records where the evidence stood at the 2026 baseline. Every value resolves to its source or to its stated method; where neither exists, the edition says so instead of filling the gap.

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Series alias
NR-NAT-BRA-2026-BL
Family · class
Country Systems Risk & Resilience · Baseline Edition (inaugural annual)
Lifecycle state
◌ DRAFT, review copy before stewardship review
Publication date
October 2026
Evidence close
30 September 2026 · cut NQ-BRA-2026-Q0-1
Reproducibility
sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Access class
PUBLIC-SAFE DERIVATIVE
Review
five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Designed for
strategic planning · risk screening · resilience assessment · portfolio discussion · research · public communication
Not for
government assessment · official warning · rating · certification · investment advice · underwriting · procurement · operational authorisation
Registry
record NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE · current-version pointer at release
Corrections
registry correction pathway · history in Annex C
AI use
disclosed in Annex C
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2027-Q1-v1.0.0 · Q1 2027
Licence
text CC BY 4.0 · data on the terms of each source
Desk identifier
Collection

02 · Key messages

What the edition finds.

Five of the questions the edition answers, each with its status. The executive summary has all of them, with their sources.

  1. 2,145 Mt CO₂e gross in 2024, 16.7% below 2023; 1.49 Gt net.

    Where do emissions stand?Reported

  2. A net cut of 59 to 67% below 2005, or 0.85 to 1.05 Gt CO₂e.

    What is the 2035 target?Reported

  3. PRODES estimate 5,796 km², 11.08% below the year before; fire burned 12.7 million hectares nationally in 2025.

    How is the Amazon changing?Reported

  4. 86.8% renewable, but hydropower is about half of generation and fell 4.8% in 2025.

    How secure is power?Reported

  5. About 2.4 million people affected and R$88.9 billion in estimated effects in one state.

    What did the 2024 floods show?Reported

All key messages and the headline finding

03 · Contents

Eight chapters and three annexes.

  1. ·

    Executive summary

    The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

  2. 1

    Chapter 1. Brazil’s risk runs through water, forest and fire

    Part I describes systems and their couplings.

  3. 2

    Chapter 2. Key findings

    Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked.

  4. 3

    Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline

  5. 4

    Chapter 4. Risks and capability

    Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank.

  6. 5

    Chapter 5. Strong El Niño drought across rivers, hydropower and fire

    A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

  7. 6

    Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks

    The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole.

  8. 7

    Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda

    Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda.

  9. 8

    Chapter 8. Systems in depth

    One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

  10. A

    Annex A. Methodology

    How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

  11. B

    Annex B. Data appendix

    The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

  12. C

    Annex C. References and record

    Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

List of figures (4)
  1. S.1Estimated effects of the 2024 floods by sector group (R$ billion)
  2. 1.1How far is Brazil from its 2035 range? Emissions and target (Mt CO₂e)
  3. 1.2Couplings between the five systems
  4. 2.1Estimated effects of the 2024 floods by sector group (R$ billion)
List of tables (44)
  1. 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
  2. 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
  3. 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
  4. 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
  5. 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
  6. 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
  7. 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
  8. 6.3Q1 2027 readiness pack
  9. 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
  10. 6.5Science and assessments
  11. 6.6Institutional reports
  12. 6.7Official statistics and national sources
  13. 6.8Industry, loss data and international sources
  14. 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
  15. 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
  16. 7.3Handoffs and routing
  17. 7.4Routing rules by publication class
  18. 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
  19. 7.6Signals at baseline
  20. 8.1State at baseline
  21. 8.2State at baseline
  22. 8.3State at baseline
  23. 8.4State at baseline
  24. 8.5State at baseline
  25. A.1Methods
  26. A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
  27. A.3Status grammar
  28. A.4From the baseline cut to the first Foundry cut
  29. A.5Evidence age and coverage
  30. A.6Coverage by system at baseline
  31. A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
  32. A.8Publication acceptance record
  33. A.9The status every value carries
  34. A.10Series terms
  35. A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
  36. A.12Technical annex
  37. B.1Baseline indicator set
  38. B.2Baseline indicator set
  39. B.3National source register
  40. B.4Regional reading, Brazil by region
  41. B.5Brazil system card
  42. B.6Licences of each kind of material
  43. B.7This edition in every format
  44. C.1Release path for this version

04 · GCRI reading

How GCRI reads this edition.

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Brazil’s risk: drought, flood and fire share one hydrological cycle, and power, food and logistics depend on it. Evidence is strongest for emissions, land cover, energy and floods, and weakest for heat mortality, reserves and lifeline continuity.

CLI-001 · WAT-007 · ENE-005 · SYS-012

Chapter 6, lenses and readings

05 · Publication record

Version, dates and contributors.

The identity of this edition as its title pages record it. A review copy has no DOI; the DOI is issued at deposit.

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Version
1.0.0, review copy
Edition date
Evidence close
Status
Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi
Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Licence of the text
CC BY 4.0
DOI
Issued at deposit, on release
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2027-Q1-v1.0.0

Contributors

RoleContributionBy
ConceptualisationSeries architecture and the Brazil system modelS. Valadbaygi (ed.)
MethodologyBaseline method, dependency scoring and status grammarReports editorial team, GCRI
Investigation · data curationSource review of Brazilian and international releases to evidence closeReports editorial team, GCRI
Writing, original draftAll chapters; AI-assisted drafting, disclosed belowEditor · editorial team
Writing, review and editingFive review passes before releaseSteward reviewers (scheduled)
VisualisationPages, figures and tables in the Nexus design standardReports editorial team, GCRI
SupervisionEdition governance, registry record and depositS. Valadbaygi (ed.)

Review before release

PassScopeByState
1Scientific and technicalGCRI · key TScheduled
2Reproducibility of analytical valuesGCRI · key TScheduled
3Public meaning and claimsThe Global Risks Forum (GRF) · key MScheduled
4Finance-readiness boundaryThe Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · key FScheduled
5Country context and safeguardsNational pathway · key NScheduled

AI assistance was used for drafting, consistency checks and page composition. Every number, citation and status label was checked against its source by the editorial team before freeze. No AI system is recorded as an author or a reviewer, and no AI output is printed as fact without a source.

06 · Downloads

Read it in print, take the data.

FormatWhat it isStateGet it
Complete edition, print or PDFA4 or Letter, chosen in the print dialog: cover, contents, every chapter and annex, endnotes and running heads Review copyOpen for print
Indicators, CSV27 indicators with unit, year, status and source On this pageDownload
Indicators, JSONThe same indicators with the edition’s identity and licence On this pageDownload
Findings, CSV12 findings with status, evidence-quality level and references On this pageDownload
Citation, BibTeXFor LaTeX and reference managers On this pageDownload
Citation, RISFor Zotero, EndNote and Mendeley On this pageDownload
PDF, A4 and US LetterPrinted from the edition pack in the Reports print design, with the publication ID, the evidence cut and the pack hash in its metadata; signed with its DOI at release At releaseNot yet issued
Data packageEvery table of the edition as CSV and JSON, with the citation files (CSL-JSON, BibTeX, RIS), built with the site With the editionAnnex B, data

The print and the files are produced from the same edition pack as the web pages, so they always agree. Until release they are review copies.

07 · Cite

Cite this report.

This edition is a draft in stewardship review. Cite it as a draft; the DOI and the UNI are issued at deposit, and the citation then names them.
Catalogue keyNR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE

Standards applied to NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE

Cite as

S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Brazil Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Brazil’s Interdependent Systems. Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.

Applied

NS-1 catalogue identity (a UNI is allocated at deposit and resolves to this record), NS-2 citation and attribution, NS-3b dataset metadata, NS-5 figures and maps, NS-12 software and AI disclosure.

Monitoring

Corrections are new versions with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.

An attestation is evidence, not a certificate. Nexus Standards parts are preparatory working drafts (2026).

APA 7
Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Brazil Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Brazil’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/bra/
Chicago
Valadbaygi, Saeed, ed. Brazil Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Brazil’s Interdependent Systems. Baseline Edition 2026. Nexus Reports NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE. Draft under review. Toronto: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), 2026. https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/bra/.
BibTeX
@techreport{NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE,
  editor      = {Valadbaygi, Saeed},
  title       = {{Brazil Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026}: The State of Brazil’s Interdependent Systems},
  institution = {The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)},
  address     = {Toronto},
  year        = {2026},
  type        = {Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026},
  number      = {NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE},
  note        = {Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit},
  url         = {https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/bra/}
}
RIS
TY  - RPRT
ED  - Valadbaygi, Saeed
TI  - Brazil Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Brazil’s Interdependent Systems
T3  - Nexus Reports
ET  - Baseline Edition 2026
PY  - 2026
PB  - The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
CY  - Toronto
SN  - NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE
UR  - https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/bra/
N1  - Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit.
LA  - en
ER  -
NR-CIT-1 (house style)
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Brazil Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Brazil’s Interdependent Systems. Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
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  • Evidence close 30 September 2026

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