China Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the China baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. 15,536 Mt CO₂e excluding land use in 2024, in the EDGAR database. The national inventory with land use is not bound.⁹¹⁸

   Where do emissions stand?Reported

2. 10.9 °C in 2025, tied with 2024 as the highest since 1951, and the most hot days since 1961.³

   How hot has it become?Reported

3. Zhengzhou recorded 201.9 mm in one hour in 2021, and 398 people were dead or missing in Henan.¹⁴

   How exposed are cities to extreme rain?Reported

4. Coal 54.8%, hydro 13.3%, solar 11.2%, wind 10.7%, nuclear 4.6% and gas 3.2% in 2025.⁴

   How is electricity made?Reported

5. Grain output was 714.88 million tonnes. The share of food imported and soybean import concentration are not bound.¹²⁰

   How secure is food?Reported

6. 231.78 billion yuan of direct loss from meteorological disasters in 2025. Insured shares are not bound.³²³

   Who carries the losses?Reported

7. 15.9% are aged 65 or over and births were 7.92 million, against 11.31 million deaths.¹

   What does an older population change?Reported

8. Extreme rain on a dense plain in a hot summer, cutting roads, underground transport, water and care together. SCN-CHN-FLD-01

   What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

The 2021 Henan flood left 398 people dead or missing, 380 of them in Zhengzhou, where the national station recorded 201.9 mm of rain in one hour.

The investigation counts 14 deaths in a metro train and 6 in a road tunnel, and 12 main rivers rose above warning level. Dense plains, underground transport and reservoirs therefore share one hazard, and loss depends on how they are linked¹⁴.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development. NBS, Beijing, 28 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
2. 3National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration (ed.), China Climate Bulletin (2025). CMA, Beijing, 12 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
3. 14Disaster Investigation Team of the State Council (ed.), Investigation Report on the “7·20” Extraordinarily Heavy Rainstorm Disaster in Zhengzhou, Henan. Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing, January 2022. Observation year 2021.back
4. 4Ember (ed.), Yearly Electricity Data: China, generation, capacity and emissions intensity. Ember, London, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
5. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), from the EDGAR Community GHG Database, Joint Research Centre, European Commission. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2024.back
6. 12Government of China (ed.), China’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Beijing, November 2025. Observation year 2025.back
7. 13Climate Action Tracker (ed.), China: 2035 NDC assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
8. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Terrestrial protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), Marine protected areas (ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), from UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, and Forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), from FAO. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation years 2025 and 2024.back
9. 18Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China (ed.), national greenhouse gas inventory submitted to the UNFCCC (latest biennial report). MEE, Beijing, not opened 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
10. 20General Administration of Customs of China (ed.), import and export statistics for soybeans and feed. GACC, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
11. 23National Financial Regulatory Administration of China (ed.), insurance industry statistics. NFRA, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
12. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Energy imports, net (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), Food imports (TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN) and PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3). World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation years 2024, 2025 and 2023.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is China’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
• Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
• Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
• What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Five system chapters
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The China matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   CLI → WAT → INF

   Extreme rain floods streets, metro trains and road tunnels.

   Reported Henan 2021¹⁴

2. 02

   CLI → HLT

   Record hot days load health services and cooling demand.

   Estimated summer 2025³

3. 03

   SEI → HLT

   A strong plateau earthquake causes mass casualties.

   Reported Dingri 2025¹⁵

4. 04

   CLI → FOO

   Unseasonal autumn rain damages grain quality and delays sowing.

   Reported October 2025¹¹

5. 05

   CLI → ENE → HLT

   Heat raises cooling demand on a coal-led power system.

   Estimated 2025³⁴

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 3National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration (ed.), China Climate Bulletin (2025). CMA, Beijing, 12 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
2. 14Disaster Investigation Team of the State Council (ed.), Investigation Report on the “7·20” Extraordinarily Heavy Rainstorm Disaster in Zhengzhou, Henan. Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing, January 2022. Observation year 2021.back
3. 15Science and Technology Daily (ed.), “Dingri County earthquake has killed 126 people and injured 188 (西藏定日县地震已致126人遇难、188人受伤).” Beijing, 7 January 2025. Observation year 2025.back
4. 1National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development. NBS, Beijing, 28 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
5. 4Ember (ed.), Yearly Electricity Data: China, generation, capacity and emissions intensity. Ember, London, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
6. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), from the EDGAR Community GHG Database, Joint Research Centre, European Commission. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2024.back
7. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Energy imports, net (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), Food imports (TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN) and PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3). World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation years 2024, 2025 and 2023.back
8. 11Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: China. FAO, Rome, reference date 29 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

The 2021 Henan flood left 398 people dead or missing, 380 of them in Zhengzhou, where the national station recorded 201.9 mm of rain in one hour.

Implication

The investigation counts 14 deaths in a metro train and 6 in a road tunnel, and 12 main rivers rose above warning level. Dense plains, underground transport and reservoirs therefore share one hazard, and loss depends on how they are linked¹⁴.

What would move it

Reservoir and levee condition, underground-space flood rules, and rainy-season totals in the Yellow, Haihe and Huaihe basins would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

   The national mean temperature was 10.9 °C in 2025, 1.0 °C above the 1991 to 2020 normal and tied with 2024 as the highest since 1951; hot days averaged 16.5, the most since 1961.³

2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

   North China had the highest rainy-season rainfall and the longest rainy season on record in 2025, and the Haihe basin had its third-largest annual rainfall.³

3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-008

   Emissions excluding land use were 15,536 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 0.8% above 2023 (ESTIMATED change); the 2035 aim is net emissions 7 to 10% below peak levels, and the peak year is not established.⁹¹²¹³

2.3Finance

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003

   Meteorological disasters in 2025 left 628 people dead or missing and caused 231.78 billion yuan of direct loss, 26.3% fewer deaths and missing and 28.8% less loss than the 2015 to 2024 average.³

2.4SEI

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-SEI-004

   The Dingri (Tibet) earthquake of 7 January 2025 had killed 126 people by that evening, according to official reports.¹⁵

2.5Water

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

   The 2021 Henan flood left 398 people dead or missing and affected 14.786 million, with 120.06 billion yuan of direct loss; the Zhengzhou station recorded 201.9 mm in one hour.¹⁴

2.6Energy

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-ENE-006

   Coal supplied 54.8% of electricity in 2025 and 51.4% of total energy consumption, while wind and solar supplied 21.9% of electricity.¹⁴

2. EstimatedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-ENE-007

   Wind and solar capacity reached about 1,842 GW at the end of 2025, about 51% of the 3,600 GW the 2035 contribution strives for (sum and ratio ESTIMATED).¹¹²

2.7Food

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009

   Grain output was 714.88 million tonnes in 2025; the FAO records 657.5 million tonnes of cereals and cereal imports well below average for 2025/26.¹¹¹

2.8Health

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-HLT-010

   The population fell by 3.39 million to 1,404.89 million in 2025; 15.9% were aged 65 or over and births were 7.92 million.¹

2.9Biodiversity

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

   Protected areas covered 15.6% of land and 4.8% of territorial waters in 2025, and forest 24.0% of land in 2024, against a global 30% target for 2030.⁷³⁸

2.10Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is extreme rain on a dense plain in a hot summer that cuts roads, underground transport, water and care together. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 14Disaster Investigation Team of the State Council (ed.), Investigation Report on the “7·20” Extraordinarily Heavy Rainstorm Disaster in Zhengzhou, Henan. Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing, January 2022. Observation year 2021.back
2. 3National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration (ed.), China Climate Bulletin (2025). CMA, Beijing, 12 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
3. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), from the EDGAR Community GHG Database, Joint Research Centre, European Commission. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2024.back
4. 12Government of China (ed.), China’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Beijing, November 2025. Observation year 2025.back
5. 13Climate Action Tracker (ed.), China: 2035 NDC assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
6. 15Science and Technology Daily (ed.), “Dingri County earthquake has killed 126 people and injured 188 (西藏定日县地震已致126人遇难、188人受伤).” Beijing, 7 January 2025. Observation year 2025.back
7. 1National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development. NBS, Beijing, 28 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
8. 4Ember (ed.), Yearly Electricity Data: China, generation, capacity and emissions intensity. Ember, London, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
9. 11Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: China. FAO, Rome, reference date 29 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
10. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Terrestrial protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), Marine protected areas (ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), from UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, and Forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), from FAO. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation years 2025 and 2024.back
11. 38Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (ER.H2O.INTR.PC) and Annual freshwater withdrawals by sector (ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS, FWDM, FWIN), from FAO AQUASTAT. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2022.back
2. 4Ember (ed.), Yearly Electricity Data: China, generation, capacity and emissions intensity. Ember, London, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
3. 1National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development. NBS, Beijing, 28 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
4. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Terrestrial protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), Marine protected areas (ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), from UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, and Forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), from FAO. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation years 2025 and 2024.back
5. 3National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration (ed.), China Climate Bulletin (2025). CMA, Beijing, 12 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
6. 11Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: China. FAO, Rome, reference date 29 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
7. 16Ministry of Emergency Management of China (ed.), national natural disaster releases (全国自然灾害情况), monthly and annual. MEM, Beijing, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
8. 14Disaster Investigation Team of the State Council (ed.), Investigation Report on the “7·20” Extraordinarily Heavy Rainstorm Disaster in Zhengzhou, Henan. Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing, January 2022. Observation year 2021.back
9. 26Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (ed.), Emergency Response Law of the People’s Republic of China, revised 2025. Beijing, 2025.back
10. 31S. Piao, P. Ciais, Y. Huang et al., “The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China,” Nature, vol. 467, pp. 43–51, 2010.back
11. 32Y. Sun, X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers et al., “Rapid increase in the risk of extreme summer heat in Eastern China,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 4, pp. 1082–1085, 2014.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. EstimatedEQL 4RSK-CHN-CLI-001

   Record heat and hot-day extremes

   Driver

   warming and persistent heat processes

   Exposure

   central and eastern provinces; 11 units had record annual temperature³

   Vulnerability

   older population (15.9% aged 65 or over)¹

   Capacity

   not bound: heat alert and cooling-shelter records

   Cascade

   CLI → HLT → ENE peak

   Horizon

   seasonal

2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-CHN-CLI-002

   Extreme rain and river flooding

   Driver

   more intense rainfall and long rainy seasons³

   Exposure

   dense plains, reservoirs and underground spaces¹⁴

   Vulnerability

   drainage and reservoir condition not bound

   Capacity

   red rainstorm warnings issued in 2021¹⁴

   Cascade

   CLI → WAT → INF, HLT

   Horizon

   annual

3. ReportedEQL 3RSK-CHN-SEI-003

   Strong earthquakes on the plateau and in basins

   Driver

   continental collision tectonics

   Exposure

   Dingri 2025: 126 deaths by the evening of the event¹⁵

   Vulnerability

   building condition by province not bound

   Capacity

   not bound: seismic code and response records

   Cascade

   SEI → INF, HLT

   Horizon

   30 years

4. EstimatedEQL 3RSK-CHN-ENE-004

   Coal-led power under rising demand and import exposure

   Driver

   demand growth and heat peaks

   Exposure

   power, industry, households

   Vulnerability

   coal 54.8% of electricity; net energy imports 24.0% of energy use⁴¹⁰

   Capacity

   1,842 GW of wind and solar installed¹

   Cascade

   ENE → WAT, HLT, FOO

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 3National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration (ed.), China Climate Bulletin (2025). CMA, Beijing, 12 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
2. 1National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development. NBS, Beijing, 28 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
3. 14Disaster Investigation Team of the State Council (ed.), Investigation Report on the “7·20” Extraordinarily Heavy Rainstorm Disaster in Zhengzhou, Henan. Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing, January 2022. Observation year 2021.back
4. 15Science and Technology Daily (ed.), “Dingri County earthquake has killed 126 people and injured 188 (西藏定日县地震已致126人遇难、188人受伤).” Beijing, 7 January 2025. Observation year 2025.back
5. 4Ember (ed.), Yearly Electricity Data: China, generation, capacity and emissions intensity. Ember, London, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
6. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Energy imports, net (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), Food imports (TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN) and PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3). World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation years 2024, 2025 and 2023.back
7. 26Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (ed.), Emergency Response Law of the People’s Republic of China, revised 2025. Beijing, 2025.back
8. 29Ministry of Ecology and Environment and partner departments (eds.), National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 2035. Beijing, 2022.back
9. 16Ministry of Emergency Management of China (ed.), national natural disaster releases (全国自然灾害情况), monthly and annual. MEM, Beijing, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
10. 31S. Piao, P. Ciais, Y. Huang et al., “The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China,” Nature, vol. 467, pp. 43–51, 2010.back
11. 32Y. Sun, X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers et al., “Rapid increase in the risk of extreme summer heat in Eastern China,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 4, pp. 1082–1085, 2014.back
12. 35J. Liu, H. Yang, S. N. Gosling et al., “Water scarcity assessments in the past, present, and future,” Earth’s Future, vol. 5, pp. 545–559, 2017.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-CHN-FLD-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

a one-hour rainfall of about 200 mm and a one-day total near the local annual mean over a dense plain city, after a record-hot spell

Analogues

Henan 2021¹⁴; North China rainy season 2025³

Interventions

none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   CLI → INF

   streets, tunnels and metro lines flood

   Henan 2021¹⁴

2. 2

   CLI → WAT

   rivers exceed warning levels; reservoirs and levees threatened

   Henan 2021¹⁴

3. 3

   INF → HLT

   people trapped in underground spaces; ambulances delayed

   Henan 2021¹⁴

4. 4

   CLI → FOO

   standing water and lodging damage crops

   North China 2025³

5. 5

   CLI → HLT

   a preceding hot spell raises the base load on health services

   scenario assumption

6. 6

   INF → ENE

   substations and pumping stations at risk

   scenario assumption

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-CHN-FLD-01 would travel through China’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: China 2026, scenario SCN-CHN-FLD-01 (2026); China 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 14Disaster Investigation Team of the State Council (ed.), Investigation Report on the “7·20” Extraordinarily Heavy Rainstorm Disaster in Zhengzhou, Henan. Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing, January 2022. Observation year 2021.back
2. 3National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration (ed.), China Climate Bulletin (2025). CMA, Beijing, 12 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for China. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• SUBMITTED
• UNDER REVIEW
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about China’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?

Sources searched

peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 12Government of China (ed.), China’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Beijing, November 2025. Observation year 2025.back
2. 39UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015.back
3. 24Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (ed.), Energy Law of the People’s Republic of China. Beijing, adopted November 2024, in force 2025.back
4. 25Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (ed.), Food Security Law of the People’s Republic of China. Beijing, adopted December 2023, in force 2024.back
5. 26Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (ed.), Emergency Response Law of the People’s Republic of China, revised 2025. Beijing, 2025.back
6. 29Ministry of Ecology and Environment and partner departments (eds.), National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 2035. Beijing, 2022.back
7. 30State Council of China (ed.), Interim Regulations on Carbon Emissions Trading Management. Beijing, 2024.back
8. 27Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (ed.), Yangtze River Protection Law of the People’s Republic of China. Beijing, 2020, in force 2021.back
9. 28Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (ed.), Yellow River Protection Law of the People’s Republic of China. Beijing, 2022, in force 2023.back
10. 38Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
11. 13Climate Action Tracker (ed.), China: 2035 NDC assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
12. 36H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.back
13. 41P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054back
14. 42J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018.back
15. 31S. Piao, P. Ciais, Y. Huang et al., “The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China,” Nature, vol. 467, pp. 43–51, 2010.back
16. 32Y. Sun, X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers et al., “Rapid increase in the risk of extreme summer heat in Eastern China,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 4, pp. 1082–1085, 2014.back
17. 3National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration (ed.), China Climate Bulletin (2025). CMA, Beijing, 12 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
18. 14Disaster Investigation Team of the State Council (ed.), Investigation Report on the “7·20” Extraordinarily Heavy Rainstorm Disaster in Zhengzhou, Henan. Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing, January 2022. Observation year 2021.back
19. 44S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
20. 45S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
21. 1National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development. NBS, Beijing, 28 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
22. 2National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Communiqué of the 1% National Population Sample Survey in 2025. NBS, Beijing, 22 May 2026. Observation date 1 November 2025.back
23. 4Ember (ed.), Yearly Electricity Data: China, generation, capacity and emissions intensity. Ember, London, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
24. 34Y. Shan, D. Guan, H. Zheng et al., “China CO2 emission accounts 1997–2015,” Scientific Data, vol. 5, 170201, 2018.back
25. 35J. Liu, H. Yang, S. N. Gosling et al., “Water scarcity assessments in the past, present, and future,” Earth’s Future, vol. 5, pp. 545–559, 2017.back
26. 46United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. United Nations, New York, 2024. Observation year 2024.back
27. 33Q. Zhao, Y. Guo, T. Ye et al., “Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019,” The Lancet Planetary Health, vol. 5, pp. e415–e425, 2021.back
28. 16Ministry of Emergency Management of China (ed.), national natural disaster releases (全国自然灾害情况), monthly and annual. MEM, Beijing, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
29. 23National Financial Regulatory Administration of China (ed.), insurance industry statistics. NFRA, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
30. 40International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
31. 43World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025.back
32. 37UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015.back
33. 21National Health Commission of China (ed.), Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Health Care. NHC, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. A-01

   How would extreme rain on a dense plain cut roads, underground transport, water and care together, and how long would recovery take?

   INI-CHN-WAT-01 · flood and lifeline continuity; first output: dependency graph for two provinces.

2. A-02

   How much heat-health surge capacity and power margin exist in a record-hot summer?

   INI-CHN-CLI-02 · heat, power and care; first output: surge and margin baseline for five provinces.

3. A-03

   How fast can wind, solar and other non-fossil supply displace coal, and what does the 2035 aim imply year by year?

   INI-CHN-ENE-03 · power mix and coal pace; first output: generation and capacity table 2020 to 2026.

4. A-04

   How concentrated are soybean, feed and cereal imports, by commodity and origin?

   INI-CHN-FOO-04 · import exposure; first output: commodity dependence table.

5. A-05

   Where do flood, typhoon and drought losses fall, and who insures them?

   INI-CHN-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-province loss table.

6. A-06

   How do reservoirs and levees perform under more intense rainfall?

   INI-CHN-WAT-06 · workstream; first output: basin performance note.

7. A-07

   How resilient are data-centre and manufacturing clusters to flood, heat and power constraints?

   To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real disasters, and which are only planned?

   National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

China is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in China from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

1. 01

   One National Agenda

   bounded national questions for the year

   DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

2. 02

   National Desk

   coordination, records, routing and continuity

   DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

3. 03

   National Model

   the country as a system of systems

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

4. 04

   National Portfolio

   risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

   7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

5. 05

   Foundry

   continuous computational environment

   PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-CHN-2027-Q1

6. 06

   Reports

   quarterly and annual publication

   BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

7. 07

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

8. 08

   Evidence and correction

   after-action, correction and renewal

   OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-CHN-2027-01 · Flood, lifeline and health Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• quarterly publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 3National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration (ed.), China Climate Bulletin (2025). CMA, Beijing, 12 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
2. 14Disaster Investigation Team of the State Council (ed.), Investigation Report on the “7·20” Extraordinarily Heavy Rainstorm Disaster in Zhengzhou, Henan. Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing, January 2022. Observation year 2021.back

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

China has about 1,990 m³ of renewable freshwater per person, and rain is uneven across space and season, so floods and scarcity coexist. Agriculture takes most withdrawals.

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Coal supplied 54.8% of electricity in 2025 and wind and solar 21.9%. Capacity of both fleets is growing, and net energy imports were 24.0% of energy use in 2024.

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Grain output was 714.88 million tonnes in 2025. Weather, not area, set the year’s risks, and import dependence by commodity is not bound.

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Life expectancy was 78.0 years in 2024, and the population is shrinking and ageing. Record heat in 2025 meets a population in which 15.9% are aged 65 or over. A national heat-death series is not bound.

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Protection covers 15.6% of land and 4.8% of territorial waters, and forest covers 24.0% of land. Condition outside protected areas is not bound.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (ER.H2O.INTR.PC) and Annual freshwater withdrawals by sector (ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS, FWDM, FWIN), from FAO AQUASTAT. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2022.back
2. 14Disaster Investigation Team of the State Council (ed.), Investigation Report on the “7·20” Extraordinarily Heavy Rainstorm Disaster in Zhengzhou, Henan. Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing, January 2022. Observation year 2021.back
3. 3National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration (ed.), China Climate Bulletin (2025). CMA, Beijing, 12 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
4. 17Ministry of Water Resources of China (ed.), China Water Resources Bulletin. MWR, Beijing, retrieval blocked 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
5. 4Ember (ed.), Yearly Electricity Data: China, generation, capacity and emissions intensity. Ember, London, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
6. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Energy imports, net (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), Food imports (TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN) and PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3). World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation years 2024, 2025 and 2023.back
7. 1National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development. NBS, Beijing, 28 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
8. 12Government of China (ed.), China’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Beijing, November 2025. Observation year 2025.back
9. 19National Energy Administration of China (ed.), power industry statistics. NEA, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
10. 11Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: China. FAO, Rome, reference date 29 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
11. 20General Administration of Customs of China (ed.), import and export statistics for soybeans and feed. GACC, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
12. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN) and Mortality rate, infant (SP.DYN.IMRT.IN), from UN DESA World Population Prospects. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2024.back
13. 21National Health Commission of China (ed.), Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Health Care. NHC, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
14. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Terrestrial protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), Marine protected areas (ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), from UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, and Forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), from FAO. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation years 2025 and 2024.back
15. 38Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
16. 22National Forestry and Grassland Administration of China (ed.), national park and forest resource statistics. NFGA, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back

A.1Methods

The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, National Model v0

Model ID

MDL-CHN-NATIONAL · v0.1

Purpose

represent China as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

national scale; not for province or asset-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.

Cut ID

NQ-CHN-2026-Q0-1

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

46 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

NQ-CHN-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

• Ministry of Water Resources bulletin¹⁷ · retrieval blocked
• Ministry of Emergency Management annual release¹⁶ · not retrieved
• National Health Commission bulletin²¹ · not retrieved
• National Financial Regulatory Administration insurance data²³ · not retrieved

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition, wind and solar capacity against the 2035 aim

Construct

installed wind capacity plus installed solar capacity, divided by the stated 2035 level

Unit

GW and percent

Scope

calendar year, mainland statistics

Source

NBS communique¹; 2035 contribution¹²

Revision

revised when the statistical yearbook is published

Known limits

the aim is a level to strive for; the sum is Nexus arithmetic

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development. NBS, Beijing, 28 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
2. 3National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration (ed.), China Climate Bulletin (2025). CMA, Beijing, 12 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
3. 17Ministry of Water Resources of China (ed.), China Water Resources Bulletin. MWR, Beijing, retrieval blocked 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
4. 16Ministry of Emergency Management of China (ed.), national natural disaster releases (全国自然灾害情况), monthly and annual. MEM, Beijing, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
5. 21National Health Commission of China (ed.), Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Health Care. NHC, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
6. 23National Financial Regulatory Administration of China (ed.), insurance industry statistics. NFRA, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
7. 12Government of China (ed.), China’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Beijing, November 2025. Observation year 2025.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2National source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• WAT
• ENE
• FOO
• HLT
• BIO
• CLI
• INF
• FIN
• TRD
• MIN

B.3Regional reading, China by province

Map plates for every province follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form.

Selected regional figures³¹⁴

B.4Atlas card, Henan Province

• province
• central plain
• dense population
• river floods

Systems in view

roads, underground transport, rivers, reservoirs, health

Defining event

extreme rain of 17 to 23 July 2021 with 398 dead or missing and 14.786 million affected¹⁴

Couplings

CLI → WAT → INF; INF → HLT

Capability evidence

red rainstorm warnings issued; response gaps documented¹⁴

Gaps

restoration times; reservoir and levee condition; recovery

Agenda items

A-01 · A-05

B.5China system card

The card through which China appears in the East Asia regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Context

Archetype

Nexus reading: populous, coal-led, ageing economy with a very wide climatic range

Population

1,404.89 million (2025)¹

Energy

coal 54.8% of electricity (2025)⁴

Hazard

direct loss 231.78 billion yuan from meteorological disasters (2025)³

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

NQ-CHN-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), from the EDGAR Community GHG Database, Joint Research Centre, European Commission. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2024.back
2. 4Ember (ed.), Yearly Electricity Data: China, generation, capacity and emissions intensity. Ember, London, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
3. 1National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development. NBS, Beijing, 28 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
4. 3National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration (ed.), China Climate Bulletin (2025). CMA, Beijing, 12 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
5. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (ER.H2O.INTR.PC) and Annual freshwater withdrawals by sector (ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS, FWDM, FWIN), from FAO AQUASTAT. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2022.back
6. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Terrestrial protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), Marine protected areas (ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), from UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, and Forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), from FAO. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation years 2025 and 2024.back
7. 18Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China (ed.), national greenhouse gas inventory submitted to the UNFCCC (latest biennial report). MEE, Beijing, not opened 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
8. 17Ministry of Water Resources of China (ed.), China Water Resources Bulletin. MWR, Beijing, retrieval blocked 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
9. 20General Administration of Customs of China (ed.), import and export statistics for soybeans and feed. GACC, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
10. 21National Health Commission of China (ed.), Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Health Care. NHC, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
11. 23National Financial Regulatory Administration of China (ed.), insurance industry statistics. NFRA, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
12. 2National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Communiqué of the 1% National Population Sample Survey in 2025. NBS, Beijing, 22 May 2026. Observation date 1 November 2025.back
13. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL) and Population ages 65 and above (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), from UN DESA World Population Prospects. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
14. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN) and Mortality rate, infant (SP.DYN.IMRT.IN), from UN DESA World Population Prospects. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2024.back
15. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Energy imports, net (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), Food imports (TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN) and PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3). World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation years 2024, 2025 and 2023.back
16. 11Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: China. FAO, Rome, reference date 29 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
17. 12Government of China (ed.), China’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Beijing, November 2025. Observation year 2025.back
18. 13Climate Action Tracker (ed.), China: 2035 NDC assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
19. 14Disaster Investigation Team of the State Council (ed.), Investigation Report on the “7·20” Extraordinarily Heavy Rainstorm Disaster in Zhengzhou, Henan. Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing, January 2022. Observation year 2021.back
20. 15Science and Technology Daily (ed.), “Dingri County earthquake has killed 126 people and injured 188 (西藏定日县地震已致126人遇难、188人受伤).” Beijing, 7 January 2025. Observation year 2025.back
21. 16Ministry of Emergency Management of China (ed.), national natural disaster releases (全国自然灾害情况), monthly and annual. MEM, Beijing, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back

C.146 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development. NBS, Beijing, 28 February 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
2. 2National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Communiqué of the 1% National Population Sample Survey in 2025. NBS, Beijing, 22 May 2026. Observation date 1 November 2025. Cited in chapter 6
3. 3National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration (ed.), China Climate Bulletin (2025). CMA, Beijing, 12 February 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
4. 4Ember (ed.), Yearly Electricity Data: China, generation, capacity and emissions intensity. Ember, London, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
5. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL) and Population ages 65 and above (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), from UN DESA World Population Prospects. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.
6. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN) and Mortality rate, infant (SP.DYN.IMRT.IN), from UN DESA World Population Prospects. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2024. Cited in chapter 8
7. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Terrestrial protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), Marine protected areas (ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), from UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, and Forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), from FAO. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation years 2025 and 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
8. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (ER.H2O.INTR.PC) and Annual freshwater withdrawals by sector (ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS, FWDM, FWIN), from FAO AQUASTAT. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2022. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
9. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), from the EDGAR Community GHG Database, Joint Research Centre, European Commission. World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2
10. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Energy imports, net (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), Food imports (TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN) and PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3). World Bank, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation years 2024, 2025 and 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 8
11. 11Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: China. FAO, Rome, reference date 29 January 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
12. 12Government of China (ed.), China’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Beijing, November 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
13. 13Climate Action Tracker (ed.), China: 2035 NDC assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
14. 14Disaster Investigation Team of the State Council (ed.), Investigation Report on the “7·20” Extraordinarily Heavy Rainstorm Disaster in Zhengzhou, Henan. Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing, January 2022. Observation year 2021. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
15. 15Science and Technology Daily (ed.), “Dingri County earthquake has killed 126 people and injured 188 (西藏定日县地震已致126人遇难、188人受伤).” Beijing, 7 January 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4
16. 16Ministry of Emergency Management of China (ed.), national natural disaster releases (全国自然灾害情况), monthly and annual. MEM, Beijing, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
17. 17Ministry of Water Resources of China (ed.), China Water Resources Bulletin. MWR, Beijing, retrieval blocked 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available. Cited in chapter 8
18. 18Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China (ed.), national greenhouse gas inventory submitted to the UNFCCC (latest biennial report). MEE, Beijing, not opened 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available. Cited in the summary
19. 19National Energy Administration of China (ed.), power industry statistics. NEA, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available. Cited in chapter 8
20. 20General Administration of Customs of China (ed.), import and export statistics for soybeans and feed. GACC, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available. Cited in the summary, chapter 8
21. 21National Health Commission of China (ed.), Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Health Care. NHC, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
22. 22National Forestry and Grassland Administration of China (ed.), national park and forest resource statistics. NFGA, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available. Cited in chapter 8
23. 23National Financial Regulatory Administration of China (ed.), insurance industry statistics. NFRA, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available. Cited in the summary, chapter 6
24. 24Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (ed.), Energy Law of the People’s Republic of China. Beijing, adopted November 2024, in force 2025. Cited in chapter 6
25. 25Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (ed.), Food Security Law of the People’s Republic of China. Beijing, adopted December 2023, in force 2024. Cited in chapter 6
26. 26Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (ed.), Emergency Response Law of the People’s Republic of China, revised 2025. Beijing, 2025. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
27. 27Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (ed.), Yangtze River Protection Law of the People’s Republic of China. Beijing, 2020, in force 2021. Cited in chapter 6
28. 28Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (ed.), Yellow River Protection Law of the People’s Republic of China. Beijing, 2022, in force 2023. Cited in chapter 6
29. 29Ministry of Ecology and Environment and partner departments (eds.), National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 2035. Beijing, 2022. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
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