- China 2026
- Annex A
Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1China’s risk is climatic, seismic and demographic at continental scale
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Extreme rain on a dense plain in a hot summer
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | Wind and solar capacity, end-2025 | 640.01 + 1,201.73 | 1,841.74 GW |
| (2) | Share of the 2035 aim reached | 1,841.74 / 3,600 | ≈ 51% |
| (3) | Change in emissions excl. land use, 2023 to 2024 | 15,536.1 / 15,411.8 − 1 | ≈ +0.8% |
| (4) | Solar generation growth, 2024 to 2025 | 1,173.24 / 839.04 − 1 | ≈ +39.8% |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at national scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card, National Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-CHN-NATIONAL · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent China as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- national scale; not for province or asset-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
9strong
documented within one season
7moderate
documented, buffered
4weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.
- Cut ID
- NQ-CHN-2026-Q0-1
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 46 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- NQ-CHN-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | Q1 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited publications, pinned by edition | qualified source bindings with versions |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | National Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to the cut |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Temperature and hot days | 2025 | Feb 2026 | annual | Feb 2027 |
| Population and age | 2025 | Feb 2026 | annual | Feb 2027 |
| Grain output | 2025 | Feb 2026 | annual | Feb 2027 |
| Electricity generation mix | 2025 | not recorded | annual | annual |
| GHG emissions (EDGAR) | 2024 | not recorded | annual | annual |
| Water per person and use | 2022 | not recorded | annual | annual |
| Protected areas | 2025 | not recorded | annual | annual |
| Henan flood toll | 2021 | Jan 2022 | per event | per event |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Climate forcing | GOOD | provincial heat and rain records |
| Seismic hazard | PARTIAL | building condition by province |
| Energy | GOOD | fuel stock depth and grid resilience |
| Food | PARTIAL | import concentration by commodity |
| Health | THIN | heat deaths and illness |
| Water | THIN | national water use by basin |
| Biodiversity | THIN | condition outside protected areas |
| Digital | THIN | dependency mapping |
A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources
Issued by the National Bureau of Statistics. Annual, calendar-year basis, released 28 February 2026. Role: binds the population, grain, energy and disaster-loss figures.
EVD-CHN-001
Statistical communique 20251
Issued by the National Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration, February 2026. Annual. Role: binds CLI-001, CLI-002 and FIN-003, labelled as reported by the issuer.
EVD-CHN-002
China Climate Bulletin 20253
| Dimension | EVD-CHN-001 | EVD-CHN-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | national totals; provincial detail not read | national climate and disaster summary |
| Timeliness | about two months after the year | about six weeks after the year |
| Revision | annual back-revision | annual new edition |
| Method transparency | definitions in notes | data and method section |
| External validation | not assessed here | not assessed here |
Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| CAT | Climate Action Tracker |
| CMA | China Meteorological Administration |
| EDGAR | Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research |
| FAO | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations |
| GACC | General Administration of Customs |
| GIEWS | Global Information and Early Warning System |
| MEE | Ministry of Ecology and Environment |
| MEM | Ministry of Emergency Management |
| MWR | Ministry of Water Resources |
| NBS | National Bureau of Statistics |
| NDC | nationally determined contribution |
| NEA | National Energy Administration |
| NFGA | National Forestry and Grassland Administration |
| NFRA | National Financial Regulatory Administration |
| NHC | National Health Commission |
| UNEP-WCMC | UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the baseline indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-CHN-FLD-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | Q1 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | Q2 2027 |
| A.7 | Provincial notes | atlas cards for every province | Q2 2027 |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition, wind and solar capacity against the 2035 aim
- Construct
- installed wind capacity plus installed solar capacity, divided by the stated 2035 level
- Unit
- GW and percent
- Scope
- calendar year, mainland statistics
- Source
- NBS communique1; 2035 contribution12
- Revision
- revised when the statistical yearbook is published
- Known limits
- the aim is a level to strive for; the sum is Nexus arithmetic
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development. NBS, Beijing, 28 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 3National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration (ed.), China Climate Bulletin (2025). CMA, Beijing, 12 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 17Ministry of Water Resources of China (ed.), China Water Resources Bulletin. MWR, Beijing, retrieval blocked 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
- 16Ministry of Emergency Management of China (ed.), national natural disaster releases (全国自然灾害情况), monthly and annual. MEM, Beijing, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
- 21National Health Commission of China (ed.), Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Health Care. NHC, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
- 23National Financial Regulatory Administration of China (ed.), insurance industry statistics. NFRA, Beijing, not retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
- 12Government of China (ed.), China’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Beijing, November 2025. Observation year 2025.back