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Extreme rain on a dense plain in a hot summer

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables2 notesNR-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1China’s risk is climatic, seismic and demographic at continental scale
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Extreme rain on a dense plain in a hot summer
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-CHN-FLD-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
a one-hour rainfall of about 200 mm and a one-day total near the local annual mean over a dense plain city, after a record-hot spell
Analogues
Henan 202114; North China rainy season 20253
Interventions
none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    CLI → INF

    streets, tunnels and metro lines flood

    Henan 202114

  2. 2

    CLI → WAT

    rivers exceed warning levels; reservoirs and levees threatened

    Henan 202114

  3. 3

    INF → HLT

    people trapped in underground spaces; ambulances delayed

    Henan 202114

  4. 4

    CLI → FOO

    standing water and lodging damage crops

    North China 20253

  5. 5

    CLI → HLT

    a preceding hot spell raises the base load on health services

    scenario assumption

  6. 6

    INF → ENE

    substations and pumping stations at risk

    scenario assumption

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-CHN-FLD-01 would travel through China’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Climate to infrastructureStreets, tunnels and metro lines flood. Analogue or source: Henan 2021 [14].Edition CHN, scenario SCN-CHN-FLD-01, step 1
02 Climate to waterRivers exceed warning levels; reservoirs and levees threatened. Analogue or source: Henan 2021 [14].Edition CHN, scenario SCN-CHN-FLD-01, step 2
03 Infrastructure to healthPeople trapped in underground spaces; ambulances delayed. Analogue or source: Henan 2021 [14].Edition CHN, scenario SCN-CHN-FLD-01, step 3
04 Climate to foodStanding water and lodging damage crops. Analogue or source: North China 2025 [3].Edition CHN, scenario SCN-CHN-FLD-01, step 4
05 Climate to healthA preceding hot spell raises the base load on health services. Analogue or source: scenario assumption.Edition CHN, scenario SCN-CHN-FLD-01, step 5
06 Infrastructure to energySubstations and pumping stations at risk. Analogue or source: scenario assumption.Edition CHN, scenario SCN-CHN-FLD-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: China 2026, scenario SCN-CHN-FLD-01 (2026); China 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 14Disaster Investigation Team of the State Council (ed.), Investigation Report on the “7·20” Extraordinarily Heavy Rainstorm Disaster in Zhengzhou, Henan. Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing, January 2022. Observation year 2021.back
  2. 3National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration (ed.), China Climate Bulletin (2025). CMA, Beijing, 12 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Extreme rain on a dense plain in a hot summer. In China Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of China’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-CHN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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