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Exponential Technology Report 2026: Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

The first annual edition of the AI and agentic systems report. It fixes the 2026 reference state of AI as physical infrastructure, and the model, voice and positions, against which the 2027 edition and every national readiness chapter will be read.

Read the executive summaryDownload PDF · A4 · 796 KB · 94 pagesUS Letter, data and citation filesCite this report
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi
Desk
GCRI Systems Evidence
Publisher of record
GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Evidence close
30 September 2026
دۆخ
Draft in stewardship review; not yet released
ReportsXT-01

تەکنەلۆجیای ئێکسپۆنێنشیاڵ

AI and Agentic Systems 2026

Baseline Edition 2026NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium
دۆزینەوەکان12each with its status and source
سەرچاوەکان40numbered, editor first
Chapters and annexes11plus the executive summary
نیشاندەرەکان15in the data appendix, with CSV and JSON

01 · Status

Status and boundaries.

This edition governs nothing and confers no certification. It records where the global evidence stood at the 2026 baseline. Every value resolves to its source or to its stated method; where neither exists, the edition says so instead of filling the gap.

Publication ID
NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Series alias
NR-XTC-XT-01-2026-BL
Identifier status
Series alias and evidence cut are provisional until the owner confirms them. No UNI is minted.
Family · class
Exponential Technology Report XT-01 · Baseline Edition (inaugural annual)
Lifecycle state
◌ DRAFT, review copy before stewardship review
Publication date
October 2026
Evidence close
30 September 2026 · cut DC-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-B0
Reproducibility
sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Access class
PUBLIC-SAFE DERIVATIVE
پێداچوونەوە
five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Designed for
strategic planning · technology-risk screening · readiness discussion · research · public communication
Not for
government assessment · official warning · rating · certification · investment advice · underwriting · procurement · operational authorisation
تۆمارگە
record NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE · current-version pointer at release
ڕاستکردنەوەکان
registry correction pathway · history in Annex C
بەکارهێنانی زیرەکی دەستکرد
disclosed in Annex C
Next edition
NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0 · 2027 annual
مۆڵەت
text CC BY 4.0 · data on the terms of each source
Desk identifier
NR-GCRI-XT-01-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Collection
NR-COL-2026-BASELINE

02 · Key messages

What the edition finds.

Five of the questions the edition answers, each with its status. The executive summary has all of them, with their sources.

  1. Data centres used about 415 TWh in 2024, about 1.5% of the world total, rising to about 945 TWh by 2030 in the IEA base case.

    How much power does AI use?ڕاپۆرتکراو

  2. Frontier training compute has grown four- to five-fold a year.

    How fast is capability scaling?ڕاپۆرتکراو

  3. The cost of GPT-3.5-level performance fell more than 280-fold in two years.

    Is AI getting cheaper?ڕاپۆرتکراو

  4. About 92% of leading-edge chip capacity sat in one region in 2019.

    How concentrated is supply?ڕاپۆرتکراو

  5. 78% of organisations used AI in 2024.

    How widely is AI used?ڕاپۆرتکراو

All key messages and the headline finding

03 · Contents

Eight chapters and three annexes.

  1. ·

    Executive summary

    The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

  2. 1

    Chapter 1. AI is infrastructure, not only software

    Part I describes سیستەمە and their couplings.

  3. 2

    Chapter 2. Key findings

    Twelve findings carry the AI baseline. They are grouped by coupling, never ranked.

  4. 3

    Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline

  5. 4

    Chapter 4. Risks and capability

    Four AI risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank.

  6. 5

    Chapter 5. Chip supply disruption under grid constraint

    A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

  7. 6

    Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks

    The AI baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole.

  8. 7

    Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda

    Eight bounded questions open the 2027 AI agenda.

  9. 8

    Chapter 8. Systems in depth

    One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

  10. A

    Annex A. Methodology

    How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

  11. B

    Annex B. Data appendix

    The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

  12. C

    Annex C. References and record

    Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

List of figures (4)
  1. S.1Data-centre electricity use (TWh)
  2. 1.1How fast is AI being adopted, and at what scale? Selected indicators, 2024
  3. 1.2Couplings across the six sectors
  4. 2.1Data-centre electricity use (TWh)
List of tables (43)
  1. 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
  2. 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
  3. 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
  4. 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
  5. 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
  6. 6.12027 AI readiness pack
  7. 6.2Standards and regulatory watch
  8. 6.3Peer-reviewed science and assessments
  9. 6.4Institutional flagships
  10. 6.5Statistics, labour and access
  11. 6.6Supply chains, incidents and electricity
  12. 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
  13. 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the AI candidate mission
  14. 7.3Handoffs and routing
  15. 7.4Routing rules by publication class
  16. 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
  17. 7.6Signals at baseline
  18. 8.1State at baseline
  19. 8.2State at baseline
  20. 8.3State at baseline
  21. 8.4State at baseline
  22. 8.5State at baseline
  23. A.1میتۆدەکان
  24. A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
  25. A.3Status grammar
  26. A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
  27. A.5Evidence age and coverage
  28. A.6Coverage by system at baseline
  29. A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
  30. A.8Publication acceptance record
  31. A.9The status every value carries
  32. A.10Series terms
  33. A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
  34. A.12Technical annex
  35. B.1Global baseline indicator set
  36. B.2Global baseline indicator set
  37. B.3Global source register
  38. B.4Regional reading, AI across ten clusters
  39. B.5How countries appear in the AI edition
  40. B.6National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme
  41. B.7Licences of each kind of material
  42. B.8This edition in every format
  43. C.1Release path for this version

04 · GCRI reading

How GCRI reads this edition.

The evidence supports reading AI as physical infrastructure with fast-rising, clustered demand for power and water, and a highly concentrated supply chain. Evidence is strongest for electricity use and adoption, and weakest for water, inference energy and agentic failures.

ENE-001 · MIN-005 · SAF-009 · SYS-012

Chapter 6, lenses and readings

05 · Publication record

Version, dates and contributors.

The identity of this edition as its title pages record it. A review copy has no DOI; the DOI is issued at deposit.

Publication ID
NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
وەشان
1.0.0, review copy
Edition date
Evidence close
دۆخ
Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi
Publisher of record
Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Licence of the text
CC BY 4.0
DOI
Issued at deposit, on release
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0

Contributors

ڕۆڵContributionBy
ConceptualisationSeries architecture and the technology system modelS. Valadbaygi (ed.)
میتۆدۆلۆژیBaseline method, dependency scoring and status grammarReports editorial team, GCRI
Investigation · data curationSource review of AI energy, compute, safety, labour and governance evidenceReports editorial team, GCRI
Writing, original draftAll chapters; AI-assisted drafting, disclosed belowEditor · editorial team
Writing, review and editingFive review passes before releaseSteward reviewers (scheduled)
VisualisationPages, figures and tables in the Nexus design standardReports editorial team, GCRI
SupervisionEdition governance, registry record and depositS. Valadbaygi (ed.)

پێداچوونەوە پێش بڵاوکردنەوە

تێپەڕینسنوورByدۆخ
1Scientific and technicalGCRI · key Tخشتەکراو
2Reproducibility of analytical valuesGCRI · key Tخشتەکراو
3Public meaning and claimsThe Global Risks Forum (GRF) · key Mخشتەکراو
4Finance-readiness boundaryThe Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · key Fخشتەکراو
5Regional context, safeguards and dual useRegional consortia · key Nخشتەکراو

AI assistance was used for drafting, consistency checks and page composition. Every number, citation and status label was checked against its source by the editorial team before freeze. No AI system is recorded as an author or a reviewer, and no AI output is printed as fact without a source.

06 · Downloads

Read it in print, take the data.

Draft, not yet releasedReview copies of a draft in stewardship review. The released edition carries its DOI and replaces them.

  • Print

    • PDF, A4

      The designed print edition, A4: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.

      PDF94 pages796 KBTagged, with bookmarks

      SHA-256 c62f0478a8a6b04ff208d2343ba7e95b777d4d7b046d59877e91d3d833e61374

      Download: PDF, A4

    • PDF, US Letter

      The designed print edition, US Letter: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.

      PDF104 pages813 KBTagged, with bookmarks

      SHA-256 51413c7ccfcd6d23e8beafd52d464fe1c9007c5353756dcae11496210e269ad8

      Download: PDF, US Letter

  • Web edition

  • Data bundle

    • Indicators, CSV

      15 indicators with unit, year, status and source

      NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv1 KB

      SHA-256 5516f044eae13ceabc3ba777f19c953c84bb2f36d08291dface48f2b3e01ef4d

      Download: Indicators, CSV

    • Indicators, JSON

      The same indicators with the edition’s identity and licence

      NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json2 KB

      SHA-256 0ea8bbb63c27179e1edaf827da126bab246054e87409a46d50210666e60163df

      Download: Indicators, JSON

    • Findings, CSV

      12 findings with status, evidence-quality level and references

      NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-findings.csv2 KB

      SHA-256 76cdddad3a6c011c3a563f71b5f980a4b91c3890dbd491fe21658f16cf7de9a2

      Download: Findings, CSV

  • Citation files

    • Citation, BibTeX

      For LaTeX and reference managers

      NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE.bib1 KB

      SHA-256 7afb9c8aec4f2ceb44a944d44a0736c5a53a38da8da90664b289cb059a9f6ffb

      Download: Citation, BibTeX

    • Citation, RIS

      For Zotero, EndNote and Mendeley

      NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE.ris1 KB

      SHA-256 d8bea69e2181cd480ef88d6a7c81d8e1328c7a59f873edd8a3e452587a9d1303

      Download: Citation, RIS

    • Citation, CITATION.cff

      Citation File Format 1.2.0, for GitHub, Zenodo and software catalogues

      NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE.cff1 KB

      SHA-256 5ce6adcdad3d93166dde1be5d173b4fa72c172c4b1412f6e29e27f9b8b658afa

      Download: Citation, CITATION.cff

Check a file with its SHA-256: shasum -a 256 <file> (macOS, Linux) or Get-FileHash <file> (Windows). Text, tables and figures by Nexus: CC BY 4.0; each source keeps its own licence.

07 · Cite

Cite this report.

This edition is a draft in stewardship review. Cite it as a draft; the DOI and the UNI are issued at deposit, and the citation then names them.
Catalogue keyNR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Standards applied to NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Cite as

S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Exponential Technology Report 2026: Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems. Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.

Applied

NS-1 catalogue identity (a UNI is allocated at deposit and resolves to this record), NS-2 citation and attribution, NS-3b dataset metadata, NS-5 figures and maps, NS-12 software and AI disclosure.

چاودێری

Corrections are new versions with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.

An attestation is evidence, not a certificate. Nexus Standards parts are preparatory working drafts (2026).

APA 7
Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Exponential Technology Report 2026: Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/xt-01/
شیکاگۆ
Valadbaygi, Saeed, ed. Exponential Technology Report 2026: Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems. Baseline Edition 2026. Nexus Reports NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE. Draft under review. Toronto: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), 2026. https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/xt-01/.
BibTeX
@techreport{NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE,
  editor      = {Valadbaygi, Saeed},
  title       = {{Exponential Technology Report 2026: Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems}},
  institution = {The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)},
  address     = {Toronto},
  year        = {2026},
  type        = {Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026},
  number      = {NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE},
  note        = {Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit},
  url         = {https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/xt-01/}
}
RIS
TY  - RPRT
ED  - Valadbaygi, Saeed
TI  - Exponential Technology Report 2026: Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems
T3  - Nexus Reports
ET  - Baseline Edition 2026
PY  - 2026
PB  - The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
CY  - Toronto
SN  - NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE
UR  - https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/xt-01/
N1  - Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit.
LA  - en
ER  -
NR-CIT-1 (house style)
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Exponential Technology Report 2026: Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems. Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
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  • Evidence close 30 September 2026

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