Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.
- Отчёты
- Экспоненциальные технологии
- Базовый выпуск 2026
Exponential Technology Report 2026: Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems
The first annual edition of the AI and agentic systems report. It fixes the 2026 reference state of AI as physical infrastructure, and the model, voice and positions, against which the 2027 edition and every national readiness chapter will be read.
- Редактор
- Saeed Valadbaygi
- Бюро
- GCRI Systems Evidence
- Publisher of record
- GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
- Collection
- Reports Collection 2026
- Закрытие доказательной базы
- 30 September 2026
- Статус
- Draft in stewardship review; not yet released
Экспоненциальные технологии
AI and Agentic Systems 2026
01 · Status
Status and boundaries.
This edition governs nothing and confers no certification. It records where the global evidence stood at the 2026 baseline. Every value resolves to its source or to its stated method; where neither exists, the edition says so instead of filling the gap.
- Publication ID
- NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Series alias
- NR-XTC-XT-01-2026-BL
- Identifier status
- Series alias and evidence cut are provisional until the owner confirms them. No UNI is minted.
- Family · class
- Exponential Technology Report XT-01 · Baseline Edition (inaugural annual)
- Lifecycle state
- ◌ DRAFT, review copy before stewardship review
- Publication date
- October 2026
- Закрытие доказательной базы
- 30 September 2026 · cut DC-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-B0
- Воспроизводимость
- sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
- Access class
- PUBLIC-SAFE DERIVATIVE
- Рецензирование
- five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
- Designed for
- strategic planning · technology-risk screening · readiness discussion · research · public communication
- Не для
- government assessment · official warning · rating · certification · investment advice · underwriting · procurement · operational authorisation
- Реестр
- record NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE · current-version pointer at release
- Исправления
- registry correction pathway · history in Annex C
- Использование ИИ
- disclosed in Annex C
- Next edition
- NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0 · 2027 annual
- Лицензия
- text CC BY 4.0 · data on the terms of each source
- Desk identifier
- NR-GCRI-XT-01-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Collection
- NR-COL-2026-BASELINE
02 · Key messages
What the edition finds.
Five of the questions the edition answers, each with its status. The executive summary has all of them, with their sources.
Data centres used about 415 TWh in 2024, about 1.5% of the world total, rising to about 945 TWh by 2030 in the IEA base case.
How much power does AI use?Сообщённые данные
Frontier training compute has grown four- to five-fold a year.
How fast is capability scaling?Сообщённые данные
The cost of GPT-3.5-level performance fell more than 280-fold in two years.
Is AI getting cheaper?Сообщённые данные
About 92% of leading-edge chip capacity sat in one region in 2019.
How concentrated is supply?Сообщённые данные
78% of organisations used AI in 2024.
How widely is AI used?Сообщённые данные
03 · Contents
Eight chapters and three annexes.
- ·
The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.
- 1
Chapter 1. AI is infrastructure, not only software
Part I describes системы and their couplings.
- 2
Twelve findings carry the AI baseline. They are grouped by coupling, never ranked.
- 3
- 4
Chapter 4. Risks and capability
Four AI risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank.
- 5
Chapter 5. Chip supply disruption under grid constraint
A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.
- 6
Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks
The AI baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole.
- 7
Eight bounded questions open the 2027 AI agenda.
- 8
One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.
- A
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
- B
The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.
- C
Annex C. References and record
Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.
List of figures (4)
List of tables (43)
- 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
- 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
- 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
- 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
- 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
- 6.12027 AI readiness pack
- 6.2Standards and regulatory watch
- 6.3Peer-reviewed science and assessments
- 6.4Institutional flagships
- 6.5Statistics, labour and access
- 6.6Supply chains, incidents and electricity
- 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
- 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the AI candidate mission
- 7.3Handoffs and routing
- 7.4Routing rules by publication class
- 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
- 7.6Signals at baseline
- 8.1State at baseline
- 8.2State at baseline
- 8.3State at baseline
- 8.4State at baseline
- 8.5State at baseline
- A.1Методы
- A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
- A.3Status grammar
- A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
- A.5Evidence age and coverage
- A.6Coverage by system at baseline
- A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
- A.8Publication acceptance record
- A.9The status every value carries
- A.10Series terms
- A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
- A.12Technical annex
- B.1Global baseline indicator set
- B.2Global baseline indicator set
- B.3Global source register
- B.4Regional reading, AI across ten clusters
- B.5How countries appear in the AI edition
- B.6National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme
- B.7Licences of each kind of material
- B.8This edition in every format
- C.1Release path for this version
04 · GCRI reading
How GCRI reads this edition.
The evidence supports reading AI as physical infrastructure with fast-rising, clustered demand for power and water, and a highly concentrated supply chain. Evidence is strongest for electricity use and adoption, and weakest for water, inference energy and agentic failures.
ENE-001 · MIN-005 · SAF-009 · SYS-012
05 · Publication record
Version, dates and contributors.
The identity of this edition as its title pages record it. A review copy has no DOI; the DOI is issued at deposit.
- Publication ID
NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0- Версия
- 1.0.0, review copy
- Edition date
- Закрытие доказательной базы
- Статус
- Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
- Редактор
- Saeed Valadbaygi
- Publisher of record
- Глобальный центр по рискам и инновациям (The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation, GCRI)
- Licence of the text
- CC BY 4.0
- DOI
- Issued at deposit, on release
- Previous edition
- none, first edition of the series
- Next edition
- NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Contributors
| Роль | Вклад | By |
|---|---|---|
| Conceptualisation | Series architecture and the technology system model | S. Valadbaygi (ed.) |
| Методология | Baseline method, dependency scoring and status grammar | Отчёты editorial team, GCRI |
| Investigation · data curation | Source review of AI energy, compute, safety, labour and governance evidence | Reports editorial team, GCRI |
| Writing, original draft | All chapters; AI-assisted drafting, disclosed below | Editor · editorial team |
| Writing, review and editing | Five review passes before release | Steward reviewers (scheduled) |
| Visualisation | Pages, figures and tables in the Nexus design standard | Reports editorial team, GCRI |
| Надзор | Edition governance, registry record and deposit | S. Valadbaygi (ed.) |
Рецензирование до выпуска
| Пролёт | Охват | By | Статус |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scientific and technical | GCRI · key T | Запланировано |
| 2 | Reproducibility of analytical values | GCRI · key T | Запланировано |
| 3 | Public meaning and claims | The Global Risks Forum (GRF) · key M | Запланировано |
| 4 | Finance-readiness boundary | The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · key F | Запланировано |
| 5 | Regional context, safeguards and dual use | Regional consortia · key N | Запланировано |
AI assistance was used for drafting, consistency checks and page composition. Every number, citation and status label was checked against its source by the editorial team before freeze. No AI system is recorded as an author or a reviewer, and no AI output is printed as fact without a source.
06 · Downloads
Read it in print, take the data.
Draft, not yet releasedReview copies of a draft in stewardship review. The released edition carries its DOI and replaces them.
Печать
PDF, A4
The designed print edition, A4: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.
PDF94 pages796 KBTagged, with bookmarks
SHA-256
c62f0478a8a6b04ff208d2343ba7e95b777d4d7b046d59877e91d3d833e61374PDF, US Letter
The designed print edition, US Letter: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.
PDF104 pages813 KBTagged, with bookmarks
SHA-256
51413c7ccfcd6d23e8beafd52d464fe1c9007c5353756dcae11496210e269ad8
Web edition
Complete edition, one page
Every chapter and annex at one address, with running heads when printed from the browser
HTML
Edition home
Key messages, contents, citation and the readings of each desk
HTML
Data bundle
Indicators, CSV
15 indicators with unit, year, status and source
NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv1 KB
SHA-256
5516f044eae13ceabc3ba777f19c953c84bb2f36d08291dface48f2b3e01ef4dIndicators, JSON
The same indicators with the edition’s identity and licence
NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json2 KB
SHA-256
0ea8bbb63c27179e1edaf827da126bab246054e87409a46d50210666e60163dfFindings, CSV
12 findings with status, evidence-quality level and references
NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-findings.csv2 KB
SHA-256
76cdddad3a6c011c3a563f71b5f980a4b91c3890dbd491fe21658f16cf7de9a2
Citation files
Citation, BibTeX
For LaTeX and reference managers
NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE.bib1 KB
SHA-256
7afb9c8aec4f2ceb44a944d44a0736c5a53a38da8da90664b289cb059a9f6ffbCitation, RIS
For Zotero, EndNote and Mendeley
NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE.ris1 KB
SHA-256
d8bea69e2181cd480ef88d6a7c81d8e1328c7a59f873edd8a3e452587a9d1303Citation, CITATION.cff
Citation File Format 1.2.0, for GitHub, Zenodo and software catalogues
NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE.cff1 KB
SHA-256
5ce6adcdad3d93166dde1be5d173b4fa72c172c4b1412f6e29e27f9b8b658afa
Check a file with its SHA-256: shasum -a 256 <file> (macOS, Linux) or Get-FileHash <file> (Windows). Text, tables and figures by Nexus: CC BY 4.0; each source keeps its own licence.
07 · Cite
Cite this report.
Standards applied to NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE
Cite as
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Exponential Technology Report 2026: Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems. Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
Applied
NS-1 catalogue identity (a UNI is allocated at deposit and resolves to this record), NS-2 citation and attribution, NS-3b dataset metadata, NS-5 figures and maps, NS-12 software and AI disclosure.
Мониторинг
Corrections are new versions with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.
An attestation is evidence, not a certificate. Nexus Standards parts are preparatory working drafts (2026).
APA 7
Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Exponential Technology Report 2026: Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/xt-01/
Chicago
Valadbaygi, Saeed, ed. Exponential Technology Report 2026: Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems. Baseline Edition 2026. Nexus Reports NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE. Draft under review. Toronto: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), 2026. https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/xt-01/.
BibTeX
@techreport{NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE,
editor = {Valadbaygi, Saeed},
title = {{Exponential Technology Report 2026: Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems}},
institution = {The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)},
address = {Toronto},
year = {2026},
type = {Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026},
number = {NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE},
note = {Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit},
url = {https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/xt-01/}
}RIS
TY - RPRT ED - Valadbaygi, Saeed TI - Exponential Technology Report 2026: Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems T3 - Nexus Reports ET - Baseline Edition 2026 PY - 2026 PB - The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) CY - Toronto SN - NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE UR - https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/xt-01/ N1 - Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit. LA - en ER -
NR-CIT-1 (house style)
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Exponential Technology Report 2026: Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems. Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
08 · Related
In the same series, and across the Consortium.
- ОтчётыXT-02
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Quantum Technologies 2026
Базовый выпуск 2026NR-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - ОтчётыXT-03
Экспоненциальные технологии
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Базовый выпуск 2026NR-XTECH-ROBOTICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - ОтчётыXT-04
Экспоненциальные технологии
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Базовый выпуск 2026NR-XTECH-SYNBIO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - ОтчётыXT-05
Экспоненциальные технологии
Genomics and Gene Editing 2026
Базовый выпуск 2026NR-XTECH-GENOMICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - ОтчётыXT-06
Экспоненциальные технологии
Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute 2026
Базовый выпуск 2026NR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - ОтчётыXT-07
Экспоненциальные технологии
HPC and Advanced Computing 2026
Базовый выпуск 2026NR-XTECH-HPC-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium
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Reports · GCRI
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- Evidence close 30 September 2026
CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.
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