Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.
- Relatórios
- Sistemas estratégicos
- Edição de referência 2026
Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk
The first annual edition of the polycrisis report. It fixes the 2026 reference state of entangled global risk, and the model, voice and positions, against which the 2027 edition and every strategic report will be read.
- Editor
- Saeed Valadbaygi
- Escritório
- GCRI Systems Evidence
- Publisher of record
- GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
- Collection
- Reports Collection 2026
- Fecho das evidências
- 30 September 2026
- Situação
- Draft in stewardship review; not yet released
Sistemas estratégicos
Global Polycrisis 2026
01 · Status
Status and boundaries.
This edition governs nothing and confers no certification. It records where the global evidence stood at the 2026 baseline. Every value resolves to its source or to its stated method; where neither exists, the edition says so instead of filling the gap.
- Publication ID
- NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Series alias
- NR-STR-SR-01-2026-BL
- Identifier status
- Series alias and evidence cut are provisional until the owner confirms them. No UNI is minted.
- Family · class
- Strategic sistemas Report SR-01 · Baseline Edition (inaugural annual)
- Lifecycle state
- ◌ DRAFT, review copy before stewardship review
- Publication date
- October 2026
- Fecho das evidências
- 30 September 2026 · cut DC-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-B0
- Reprodutibilidade
- sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
- Access class
- PUBLIC-SAFE DERIVATIVE
- Análise
- five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
- Designed for
- strategic planning · risco global screening · portfolio discussion · research · multilateral dialogue · public communication
- Não serve para
- government assessment · official warning · rating · certification · investment advice · underwriting · procurement · operational authorisation
- Registro
- record NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE · current-version pointer at release
- Correções
- registry correction pathway · history in Annex C
- Uso de IA
- disclosed in Annex C
- Next edition
- NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0 · 2027 annual
- Licença
- text CC BY 4.0 · data on the terms of each source
- Desk identifier
- NR-GCRI-SR-01-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Collection
- NR-COL-2026-BASELINE
02 · Key messages
What the edition finds.
Five of the questions the edition answers, each with its status. The executive summary has all of them, with their sources.
1.43 °C above 1850–1900 in 2025, after a record 1.55 °C in 2024; 2023–2025 averaged 1.48 °C.
How warm is the world?Declarado
Insured losses exceeded US$100 billion for the sixth year running; 2025 losses were driven by floods, storms and wildfires.
Are disaster losses rising?Declarado
Half of 2025 losses were uninsured; in Asia almost nine-tenths were.
Who carries the losses?Declarado
No: energy CO₂ set a record in 2024, although clean power supplied about 41% of electricity.
Are emissions falling?Declarado
673 million people faced hunger in 2024; concurrent breadbasket failure is a rising risco de cauda.
Is the food system stable?Declarado
03 · Contents
Eight chapters and three annexes.
- ·
The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.
- 1
Chapter 1. Crises are entangled, not stacked
Part I describes sistemas and their couplings.
- 2
Twelve findings carry the global baseline.
- 3
- 4
Chapter 4. Risks and capability
Quatro risco global objects open the portfolio.
- 5
Chapter 5. Concurrent breadbasket shortfall and energy price shock
A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.
- 6
Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks
The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole.
- 7
Eight bounded questions open the 2027 polycrisis agenda.
- 8
One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.
- A
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
- B
The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.
- C
Annex C. References and record
Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.
List of figures (4)
List of tables (43)
- 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
- 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
- 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
- 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
- 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
- 6.12027 polycrisis readiness pack
- 6.2Standards and regulatory watch
- 6.3Assessments and peer-reviewed science
- 6.4Institutional flagships
- 6.5UN and multilateral statistics
- 6.6Industry, energy and nature data
- 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
- 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the polycrisis candidate mission
- 7.3Handoffs and routing
- 7.4Routing rules by publication class
- 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
- 7.6Signals at baseline
- 8.1Evidence at baseline
- 8.2Evidence at baseline
- 8.3Evidence at baseline
- 8.4Evidence at baseline
- 8.5Evidence at baseline
- A.1Métodos
- A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
- A.3Status grammar
- A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
- A.5Evidence age and coverage
- A.6Coverage by system at baseline
- A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
- A.8Publication acceptance record
- A.9The status every value carries
- A.10Series terms
- A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
- A.12Technical annex
- B.1Global baseline indicator set
- B.2Global baseline indicator set
- B.3Global source register
- B.4Regional reading, ten regional clusters
- B.5How countries appear in the global edition
- B.6National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme
- B.7Licences of each kind of material
- B.8This edition in every format
- C.1Release path for this version
04 · GCRI reading
How GCRI reads this edition.
The evidence supports an entangled reading of risco global. Warming and losses set records in the same years; frequency, not one peak event, drives losses; and the five core sistemas share dependence on water, energy and land. Evidence is strongest for climate and losses, and weakest for digital dependencies and tipping proximity.
CLI-001 · FIN-002 · CLI-010 · SYS-012
05 · Publication record
Version, dates and contributors.
The identity of this edition as its title pages record it. A review copy has no DOI; the DOI is issued at deposit.
- Publication ID
NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0- Versão
- 1.0.0, review copy
- Edition date
- Fecho das evidências
- Situação
- Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
- Editor
- Saeed Valadbaygi
- Publisher of record
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
- Licence of the text
- CC BY 4.0
- DOI
- Issued at deposit, on release
- Previous edition
- none, first edition of the series
- Next edition
- NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Contributors
| Função | Contribuição | By |
|---|---|---|
| Conceptualisation | Series architecture and the global system model | S. Valadbaygi (ed.) |
| Metodologia | Baseline method, dependency scoring and status grammar | Relatórios editorial team, GCRI |
| Investigation · data curation | Source review of global assessments, UN statistics and loss data to evidence close | Reports editorial team, GCRI |
| Writing, original draft | All chapters; AI-assisted drafting, disclosed below | Editor · editorial team |
| Writing, review and editing | Five review passes before release | Steward reviewers (scheduled) |
| Visualisation | Pages, figures and tables in the Nexus design standard | Reports editorial team, GCRI |
| Supervisão | Edition governance, registry record and deposit | S. Valadbaygi (ed.) |
Revisão antes da divulgação
| Aprovado | Escopo | By | Situação |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scientific and technical | GCRI · key T | Agendado |
| 2 | Reproducibility of analytical values | GCRI · key T | Agendado |
| 3 | Public meaning and claims | The Global Risks Forum (GRF) · key M | Agendado |
| 4 | Finance-readiness boundary | The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · key F | Agendado |
| 5 | Regional context and safeguards | Regional consortia · key N | Agendado |
AI assistance was used for drafting, consistency checks and page composition. Every number, citation and status label was checked against its source by the editorial team before freeze. No AI system is recorded as an author or a reviewer, and no AI output is printed as fact without a source.
06 · Downloads
Read it in print, take the data.
Draft, not yet releasedReview copies of a draft in stewardship review. The released edition carries its DOI and replaces them.
Imprimir
PDF, A4
The designed print edition, A4: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.
PDF100 pages833 KBTagged, with bookmarks
SHA-256
85b9105cfcc8d8f92642e8cb916d1c284cd645fd9ce4696ecf632a194121676bPDF, US Letter
The designed print edition, US Letter: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.
PDF106 pages838 KBTagged, with bookmarks
SHA-256
b7fc6db0cfdab29a154cfda58f94c59fd6cb24c7efa96c2e9fa3e9a688efe316
Web edition
Complete edition, one page
Every chapter and annex at one address, with running heads when printed from the browser
HTML
Edition home
Key messages, contents, citation and the readings of each desk
HTML
Data bundle
Indicators, CSV
19 indicators with unit, year, status and source
NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv1 KB
SHA-256
3cf7dbb2e43df3c56ffcd533134dc4f0974de715bf3ba7f0852be93463ac5315Indicators, JSON
The same indicators with the edition’s identity and licence
NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json2 KB
SHA-256
6b2e9d53731a8385004dde83a1e56891c3cb3d0d5e395cc7e49484f3f2760fe4Findings, CSV
12 findings with status, evidence-quality level and references
NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-findings.csv2 KB
SHA-256
f92428fbe668939d378a00ecd91d575a45587f168d8e64ce7cee347da4b44910
Citation files
Citation, BibTeX
For LaTeX and reference managers
NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE.bib1 KB
SHA-256
876d14304ab9ede4f3aced81714ca6761310996bd5d3a10be58f687ff9d23ca9Citation, RIS
For Zotero, EndNote and Mendeley
NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE.ris1 KB
SHA-256
b2f135964accb9e82af6a790e12e199ceee5aab447ac051779936d72e411a9e6Citation, CITATION.cff
Citation File Format 1.2.0, for GitHub, Zenodo and software catalogues
NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE.cff1 KB
SHA-256
9d6e6c457b886e2fe909eeb0a33f20ae8033cbd475def3d2beaa34f7b46ca5de
Check a file with its SHA-256: shasum -a 256 <file> (macOS, Linux) or Get-FileHash <file> (Windows). Text, tables and figures by Nexus: CC BY 4.0; each source keeps its own licence.
07 · Cite
Cite this report.
Standards applied to NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE
Cite as
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk. Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
Applied
NS-1 catalogue identity (a UNI is allocated at deposit and resolves to this record), NS-2 citation and attribution, NS-3b dataset metadata, NS-5 figures and maps, NS-12 software and AI disclosure.
Monitoramento
Corrections are new versions with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.
An attestation is evidence, not a certificate. Nexus Standards parts are preparatory working drafts (2026).
APA 7
Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/sr-01/
Chicago
Valadbaygi, Saeed, ed. Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk. Baseline Edition 2026. Nexus Reports NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE. Draft under review. Toronto: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), 2026. https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/sr-01/.
BibTeX
@techreport{NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE,
editor = {Valadbaygi, Saeed},
title = {{Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk}},
institution = {The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)},
address = {Toronto},
year = {2026},
type = {Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026},
number = {NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE},
note = {Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit},
url = {https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/sr-01/}
}RIS
TY - RPRT ED - Valadbaygi, Saeed TI - Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk T3 - Nexus Reports ET - Baseline Edition 2026 PY - 2026 PB - The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) CY - Toronto SN - NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE UR - https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/sr-01/ N1 - Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit. LA - en ER -
NR-CIT-1 (house style)
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk. Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
08 · Related
In the same series, and across the Consortium.
- RelatóriosSR-02
Sistemas estratégicos
Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems 2026
Edição de referência 2026NR-STRATEGIC-LIFELINES-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - RelatóriosSR-03
Sistemas estratégicos
Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints 2026
Edição de referência 2026NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - RelatóriosSR-04
Sistemas estratégicos
Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026
Edição de referência 2026NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - RelatóriosSR-05
Sistemas estratégicos
Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience 2026
Edição de referência 2026NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - RelatóriosSR-06
Sistemas estratégicos
Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability 2026
Edição de referência 2026NR-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - RelatóriosSR-07
Sistemas estratégicos
Food, Water and Energy Security 2026
Edição de referência 2026NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium
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