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Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk

The first annual edition of the polycrisis report. It fixes the 2026 reference state of entangled global risk, and the model, voice and positions, against which the 2027 edition and every strategic report will be read.

Read the executive summaryDownload PDF · A4 · 833 KB · 100 pagesUS Letter, data and citation filesCite this report
编辑
Saeed Valadbaygi
办事处
GCRI Systems Evidence
正式出版方
GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
证据截止
30 September 2026
状态
Draft in stewardship review; not yet released
报告SR-01

战略系统

Global Polycrisis 2026

2026 基准版NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium
发现12each with its status and source
来源48numbered, editor first
Chapters and annexes11plus the executive summary
指标19in the data appendix, with CSV and JSON

01 · Status

Status and boundaries.

This edition governs nothing and confers no certification. It records where the global evidence stood at the 2026 baseline. Every value resolves to its source or to its stated method; where neither exists, the edition says so instead of filling the gap.

Publication ID
NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Series alias
NR-STR-SR-01-2026-BL
Identifier status
Series alias and evidence cut are provisional until the owner confirms them. No UNI is minted.
Family · class
Strategic 系统 Report SR-01 · Baseline Edition (inaugural annual)
Lifecycle state
◌ DRAFT, review copy before stewardship review
Publication date
October 2026
证据截止
30 September 2026 · cut DC-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-B0
可复现性
sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Access class
PUBLIC-SAFE DERIVATIVE
审核
five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Designed for
strategic planning · 全球风险 screening · portfolio discussion · research · multilateral dialogue · public communication
不适用于
government assessment · official warning · rating · certification · investment advice · underwriting · procurement · operational authorisation
登记册
record NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE · current-version pointer at release
更正
registry correction pathway · history in Annex C
人工智能使用
disclosed in Annex C
Next edition
NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0 · 2027 annual
许可协议
text CC BY 4.0 · data on the terms of each source
Desk identifier
NR-GCRI-SR-01-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Collection
NR-COL-2026-BASELINE

02 · Key messages

What the edition finds.

Five of the questions the edition answers, each with its status. The executive summary has all of them, with their sources.

  1. 1.43 °C above 1850–1900 in 2025, after a record 1.55 °C in 2024; 2023–2025 averaged 1.48 °C.

    How warm is the world?报告值

  2. Insured losses exceeded US$100 billion for the sixth year running; 2025 losses were driven by floods, storms and wildfires.

    Are disaster losses rising?报告值

  3. Half of 2025 losses were uninsured; in Asia almost nine-tenths were.

    Who carries the losses?报告值

  4. No: energy CO₂ set a record in 2024, although clean power supplied about 41% of electricity.

    Are emissions falling?报告值

  5. 673 million people faced hunger in 2024; concurrent breadbasket failure is a rising 尾部风险.

    Is the food system stable?报告值

All key messages and the headline finding

03 · Contents

Eight chapters and three annexes.

  1. ·

    Executive summary

    The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

  2. 1

    Chapter 1. Crises are entangled, not stacked

    Part I describes 系统 and their couplings.

  3. 2

    Chapter 2. Key findings

    Twelve findings carry the global baseline.

  4. 3

    Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline

  5. 4

    Chapter 4. Risks and capability

    四 全球风险 objects open the portfolio.

  6. 5

    Chapter 5. Concurrent breadbasket shortfall and energy price shock

    A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

  7. 6

    Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks

    The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole.

  8. 7

    Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda

    Eight bounded questions open the 2027 polycrisis agenda.

  9. 8

    Chapter 8. Systems in depth

    One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

  10. A

    Annex A. Methodology

    How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

  11. B

    Annex B. Data appendix

    The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

  12. C

    Annex C. References and record

    Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

List of figures (4)
  1. S.1Natural-disaster losses in 2025 (US$ billion)
  2. 1.1Where did 2025’s natural-disaster losses fall? Overall losses by region (US$ billion)
  3. 1.2Couplings across the six sectors
  4. 2.1Natural-disaster losses in 2025 (US$ billion)
List of tables (43)
  1. 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
  2. 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
  3. 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
  4. 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
  5. 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
  6. 6.12027 polycrisis readiness pack
  7. 6.2Standards and regulatory watch
  8. 6.3Assessments and peer-reviewed science
  9. 6.4Institutional flagships
  10. 6.5UN and multilateral statistics
  11. 6.6Industry, energy and nature data
  12. 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
  13. 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the polycrisis candidate mission
  14. 7.3Handoffs and routing
  15. 7.4Routing rules by publication class
  16. 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
  17. 7.6Signals at baseline
  18. 8.1Evidence at baseline
  19. 8.2Evidence at baseline
  20. 8.3Evidence at baseline
  21. 8.4Evidence at baseline
  22. 8.5Evidence at baseline
  23. A.1方法
  24. A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
  25. A.3Status grammar
  26. A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
  27. A.5Evidence age and coverage
  28. A.6Coverage by system at baseline
  29. A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
  30. A.8Publication acceptance record
  31. A.9The status every value carries
  32. A.10Series terms
  33. A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
  34. A.12Technical annex
  35. B.1Global baseline indicator set
  36. B.2Global baseline indicator set
  37. B.3Global source register
  38. B.4Regional reading, ten regional clusters
  39. B.5How countries appear in the global edition
  40. B.6National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme
  41. B.7Licences of each kind of material
  42. B.8This edition in every format
  43. C.1Release path for this version

04 · GCRI reading

How GCRI reads this edition.

The evidence supports an entangled reading of 全球风险. Warming and losses set records in the same years; frequency, not one peak event, drives losses; and the five core 系统 share dependence on water, energy and land. Evidence is strongest for climate and losses, and weakest for digital dependencies and tipping proximity.

CLI-001 · FIN-002 · CLI-010 · SYS-012

Chapter 6, lenses and readings

05 · Publication record

Version, dates and contributors.

The identity of this edition as its title pages record it. A review copy has no DOI; the DOI is issued at deposit.

Publication ID
NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
版本
1.0.0, review copy
Edition date
证据截止
状态
Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
编辑
Saeed Valadbaygi
正式出版方
全球风险与创新中心（Global Centre for Risk and Innovation，GCRI）
Licence of the text
CC BY 4.0
DOI
Issued at deposit, on release
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0

Contributors

角色贡献By
ConceptualisationSeries architecture and the global system modelS. Valadbaygi (ed.)
方法论Baseline method, dependency scoring and status grammar报告 editorial team, GCRI
Investigation · data curationSource review of global assessments, UN statistics and loss data to evidence closeReports editorial team, GCRI
Writing, original draftAll chapters; AI-assisted drafting, disclosed belowEditor · editorial team
Writing, review and editingFive review passes before releaseSteward reviewers (scheduled)
VisualisationPages, figures and tables in the Nexus design standardReports editorial team, GCRI
监管Edition governance, registry record and depositS. Valadbaygi (ed.)

发布前评审

通过范围By状态
1Scientific and technicalGCRI · key T已排期
2Reproducibility of analytical valuesGCRI · key T已排期
3Public meaning and claimsThe Global Risks Forum (GRF) · key M已排期
4Finance-readiness boundaryThe Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · key F已排期
5Regional context and safeguardsRegional consortia · key N已排期

AI assistance was used for drafting, consistency checks and page composition. Every number, citation and status label was checked against its source by the editorial team before freeze. No AI system is recorded as an author or a reviewer, and no AI output is printed as fact without a source.

06 · Downloads

Read it in print, take the data.

Draft, not yet releasedReview copies of a draft in stewardship review. The released edition carries its DOI and replaces them.

  • 打印

    • PDF, A4

      The designed print edition, A4: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.

      PDF100 pages833 KBTagged, with bookmarks

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      下载: PDF, A4

    • PDF, US Letter

      The designed print edition, US Letter: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.

      PDF106 pages838 KBTagged, with bookmarks

      SHA-256 b7fc6db0cfdab29a154cfda58f94c59fd6cb24c7efa96c2e9fa3e9a688efe316

      下载: PDF, US Letter

  • Web edition

  • Data bundle

    • Indicators, CSV

      19 indicators with unit, year, status and source

      NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv1 KB

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    • Indicators, JSON

      The same indicators with the edition’s identity and licence

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      SHA-256 6b2e9d53731a8385004dde83a1e56891c3cb3d0d5e395cc7e49484f3f2760fe4

      下载: Indicators, JSON

    • Findings, CSV

      12 findings with status, evidence-quality level and references

      NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-findings.csv2 KB

      SHA-256 f92428fbe668939d378a00ecd91d575a45587f168d8e64ce7cee347da4b44910

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  • Citation files

    • Citation, BibTeX

      For LaTeX and reference managers

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      For Zotero, EndNote and Mendeley

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    • Citation, CITATION.cff

      Citation File Format 1.2.0, for GitHub, Zenodo and software catalogues

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Check a file with its SHA-256: shasum -a 256 <file> (macOS, Linux) or Get-FileHash <file> (Windows). Text, tables and figures by Nexus: CC BY 4.0; each source keeps its own licence.

07 · Cite

Cite this report.

This edition is a draft in stewardship review. Cite it as a draft; the DOI and the UNI are issued at deposit, and the citation then names them.
Catalogue keyNR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Standards applied to NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Cite as

S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk. Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.

Applied

NS-1 catalogue identity (a UNI is allocated at deposit and resolves to this record), NS-2 citation and attribution, NS-3b dataset metadata, NS-5 figures and maps, NS-12 software and AI disclosure.

监测

Corrections are new versions with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.

An attestation is evidence, not a certificate. Nexus Standards parts are preparatory working drafts (2026).

APA 7
Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/sr-01/
Chicago
Valadbaygi, Saeed, ed. Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk. Baseline Edition 2026. Nexus Reports NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE. Draft under review. Toronto: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), 2026. https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/sr-01/.
BibTeX
@techreport{NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE,
  editor      = {Valadbaygi, Saeed},
  title       = {{Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk}},
  institution = {The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)},
  address     = {Toronto},
  year        = {2026},
  type        = {Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026},
  number      = {NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE},
  note        = {Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit},
  url         = {https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/sr-01/}
}
RIS
TY  - RPRT
ED  - Valadbaygi, Saeed
TI  - Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk
T3  - Nexus Reports
ET  - Baseline Edition 2026
PY  - 2026
PB  - The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
CY  - Toronto
SN  - NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE
UR  - https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/sr-01/
N1  - Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit.
LA  - en
ER  -
NR-CIT-1 (house style)
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk. Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
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