Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.
- Отчёты
- Риски и устойчивость страновых систем
- Базовый выпуск 2026
Доклад о системных рисках и устойчивости Соединенных Штатов 2026
The State of the United States’ Interdependent Systems. The first annual edition of the United States report. It fixes the 2026 reference state, the model, the voice and the positions against which every quarterly edition from Q1 2027 will be measured.
- Редактор
- Saeed Valadbaygi
- Бюро
- GCRI Systems Evidence
- Publisher of record
- GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
- Collection
- United States 2026
- Закрытие доказательной базы
- 30 September 2026
- Статус
- Draft in stewardship review; not yet released
Риски и устойчивость страновых систем
United States 2026
The State of the United States’ Interdependent Systems
01 · Status
Status and boundaries.
This edition governs nothing and confers no certification. It records where the evidence stood at the 2026 baseline. Every value resolves to its source or to its stated method; where neither exists, the edition says so instead of filling the gap.
- Publication ID
- NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Series alias
- NR-NAT-USA-2026-BL
- Family · class
- Страна Системная Risk & Resilience · Baseline Edition (inaugural annual)
- Lifecycle state
- ◌ DRAFT, review copy before stewardship review
- Publication date
- October 2026
- Закрытие доказательной базы
- 30 September 2026 · cut NQ-USA-2026-Q0-1
- Воспроизводимость
- sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
- Access class
- PUBLIC-SAFE DERIVATIVE
- Рецензирование
- five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
- Designed for
- strategic planning · risk screening · resilience assessment · portfolio discussion · research · public communication
- Не для
- government assessment · official warning · rating · certification · investment advice · underwriting · procurement · operational authorisation
- Реестр
- record NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE · current-version pointer at release
- Исправления
- registry correction pathway · history in Annex C
- Использование ИИ
- disclosed in Annex C
- Next edition
- NR-COUNTRY-USA-2027-Q1-v1.0.0 · Q1 2027
- Лицензия
- text CC BY 4.0 · data on the terms of each source
- Desk identifier
- NR-GCRI-USA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Collection
- NR-COL-2026-BASELINE · NR-COL-2026-BASELINE-USA
02 · Key messages
What the edition finds.
Five of the questions the edition answers, each with its status. The executive summary has all of them, with their sources.
Gross emissions were 6,343 Mt CO₂e in 2022; net emissions about 17% below 2005.
Where do emissions stand?Сообщённые данные
27 billion-dollar disasters in 2024; the 2025 Los Angeles fires were the costliest лесные пожары on record.
Are disaster losses rising?Сообщённые данные
About 70% of 2025 North American losses were insured, but cover is retreating where risk is highest.
Who carries the losses?Сообщённые данные
Heat with drought and fire, through grids, water, health and insurance.
Which hazard couples the most системы?Inferred
Winter Storm Uri in 2021 showed cold can fail power, water and health together; summer peaks now add data-centre load.
How exposed is the grid?Сообщённые данные
03 · Contents
Eight chapters and three annexes.
- ·
The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.
- 1
Chapter 1. America’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
Part I describes системы and their couplings.
- 2
Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked.
- 3
- 4
Chapter 4. Risks and capability
Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank.
- 5
Chapter 5. Western heat, fire and grid summer
A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.
- 6
Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks
The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole.
- 7
Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda.
- 8
One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.
- A
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
- B
The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.
- C
Annex C. References and record
Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.
List of figures (4)
List of tables (42)
- 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
- 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
- 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
- 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
- 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
- 6.1Q1 2027 readiness pack
- 6.2Standards and regulatory watch
- 6.3Peer-reviewed science and assessments
- 6.4Institutional reports
- 6.5Industry and loss data
- 6.6Standards, regulation and national official sources
- 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
- 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
- 7.3Handoffs and routing
- 7.4Routing rules by publication class
- 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
- 7.6Signals at baseline
- 8.1State at baseline
- 8.2State at baseline
- 8.3State at baseline
- 8.4State at baseline
- 8.5State at baseline
- A.1Методы
- A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
- A.3Status grammar
- A.4From the baseline cut to the first Foundry cut
- A.5Evidence age and coverage
- A.6Coverage by system at baseline
- A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
- A.8Publication acceptance record
- A.9The status every value carries
- A.10Series terms
- A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
- A.12Technical annex
- B.1Baseline indicator set
- B.2Baseline indicator set
- B.3National source register
- B.4Regional reading, the United States by climate region
- B.5United States system card
- B.6Licences of each kind of material
- B.7This edition in every format
- C.1Release path for this version
04 · GCRI reading
How GCRI reads this edition.
The evidence supports a coupled reading of American risk. Losses are rising with frequency; the grid couples heat and cold to water and health; and insurance is retreating where risk is highest. Evidence is strongest for losses and emissions, and weakest for state-level insurance availability and cross-system dependencies.
FIN-002 · FIN-003 · ENE-006 · SYS-012
05 · Publication record
Version, dates and contributors.
The identity of this edition as its title pages record it. A review copy has no DOI; the DOI is issued at deposit.
- Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0- Версия
- 1.0.0, review copy
- Edition date
- Закрытие доказательной базы
- Статус
- Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
- Редактор
- Saeed Valadbaygi
- Publisher of record
- Глобальный центр по рискам и инновациям (The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation, GCRI)
- Licence of the text
- CC BY 4.0
- DOI
- Issued at deposit, on release
- Previous edition
- none, first edition of the series
- Next edition
- NR-COUNTRY-USA-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Contributors
| Роль | Вклад | By |
|---|---|---|
| Conceptualisation | Series architecture and the United States system model | S. Valadbaygi (ed.) |
| Методология | Baseline method, dependency scoring and status grammar | Отчёты editorial team, GCRI |
| Investigation · data curation | Source review of national and international releases to evidence close | Reports editorial team, GCRI |
| Writing, original draft | All chapters; AI-assisted drafting, disclosed below | Editor · editorial team |
| Writing, review and editing | Five review passes before release | Steward reviewers (scheduled) |
| Visualisation | Pages, figures and tables in the Nexus design standard | Reports editorial team, GCRI |
| Надзор | Edition governance, registry record and deposit | S. Valadbaygi (ed.) |
Рецензирование до выпуска
| Пролёт | Охват | By | Статус |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scientific and technical | GCRI · key T | Запланировано |
| 2 | Reproducibility of analytical values | GCRI · key T | Запланировано |
| 3 | Public meaning and claims | The Global Risks Forum (GRF) · key M | Запланировано |
| 4 | Finance-readiness boundary | The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · key F | Запланировано |
| 5 | Country context and safeguards | National pathway · key N | Запланировано |
AI assistance was used for drafting, consistency checks and page composition. Every number, citation and status label was checked against its source by the editorial team before freeze. No AI system is recorded as an author or a reviewer, and no AI output is printed as fact without a source.
06 · Downloads
Read it in print, take the data.
Draft, not yet releasedReview copies of a draft in stewardship review. The released edition carries its DOI and replaces them.
Печать
PDF, A4
The designed print edition, A4: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.
PDF99 pages801 KBTagged, with bookmarks
SHA-256
215a1c6ca1cbe96ca90dd7aea52b7addc3609d6a8f106905b20c8e7f0a7f6dccPDF, US Letter
The designed print edition, US Letter: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.
PDF106 pages810 KBTagged, with bookmarks
SHA-256
7405108d126c80f7f6180fd91757eb36a544e5c4121edc0845fe9e2d439a6030
Web edition
Complete edition, one page
Every chapter and annex at one address, with running heads when printed from the browser
HTML
Edition home
Key messages, contents, citation and the readings of each desk
HTML
Data bundle
Indicators, CSV
18 indicators with unit, year, status and source
NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv1 KB
SHA-256
3e42cb933219b9b165c9d4f566373fbd26e2542de045ef9d942857a874362e19Indicators, JSON
The same indicators with the edition’s identity and licence
NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json2 KB
SHA-256
9be185b2d56b544ac1505e306ca127226ac8231ca5427b4c2fe150047f428be7Findings, CSV
12 findings with status, evidence-quality level and references
NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-findings.csv2 KB
SHA-256
f9ffd98efd3fd696dbb9e9494a52c7ff2105981da2a3467c30f59bd34738b2b2
Citation files
Citation, BibTeX
For LaTeX and reference managers
NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE.bib1 KB
SHA-256
8679273e13506ebcaaedded9fc55c2f3c18900619d6be23f2a636f3c48d9ef2bCitation, RIS
For Zotero, EndNote and Mendeley
NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE.ris1 KB
SHA-256
68205385a0bf0003b093e0b32bc25be4cb6beb9123710a664e96e317867ca1b5Citation, CITATION.cff
Citation File Format 1.2.0, for GitHub, Zenodo and software catalogues
NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE.cff1 KB
SHA-256
a70558e0e7aca395d03343d629e23ff47e2ea8642e5078c5c15c32d492cb3ae5
Check a file with its SHA-256: shasum -a 256 <file> (macOS, Linux) or Get-FileHash <file> (Windows). Text, tables and figures by Nexus: CC BY 4.0; each source keeps its own licence.
07 · Cite
Cite this report.
Standards applied to NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE
Cite as
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), United States Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United States’ Interdependent Systems. Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
Applied
NS-1 catalogue identity (a UNI is allocated at deposit and resolves to this record), NS-2 citation and attribution, NS-3b dataset metadata, NS-5 figures and maps, NS-12 software and AI disclosure.
Мониторинг
Corrections are new versions with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.
An attestation is evidence, not a certificate. Nexus Standards parts are preparatory working drafts (2026).
APA 7
Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). United States Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United States’ Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/usa/
Chicago
Valadbaygi, Saeed, ed. United States Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United States’ Interdependent Systems. Baseline Edition 2026. Nexus Reports NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE. Draft under review. Toronto: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), 2026. https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/usa/.
BibTeX
@techreport{NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE,
editor = {Valadbaygi, Saeed},
title = {{United States Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026}: The State of the United States’ Interdependent Systems},
institution = {The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)},
address = {Toronto},
year = {2026},
type = {Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026},
number = {NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE},
note = {Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit},
url = {https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/usa/}
}RIS
TY - RPRT ED - Valadbaygi, Saeed TI - United States Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United States’ Interdependent Systems T3 - Nexus Reports ET - Baseline Edition 2026 PY - 2026 PB - The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) CY - Toronto SN - NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE UR - https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/usa/ N1 - Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit. LA - en ER -
NR-CIT-1 (house style)
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), United States Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United States’ Interdependent Systems. Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
08 · Related
In the same series, and across the Consortium.
- ОтчётыCAN
Риски и устойчивость страновых систем
Canada 2026
The State of Canada’s Interdependent Systems
Базовый выпуск 2026NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - ОтчётыGBR
Риски и устойчивость страновых систем
United Kingdom 2026
The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems
Базовый выпуск 2026NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - ОтчётыFRA
Риски и устойчивость страновых систем
France 2026
The State of France’s Interdependent Systems
Базовый выпуск 2026NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - ОтчётыDEU
Риски и устойчивость страновых систем
Germany 2026
The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems
Базовый выпуск 2026NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - ОтчётыITA
Риски и устойчивость страновых систем
Italy 2026
The State of Italy’s Interdependent Systems
Базовый выпуск 2026NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - ОтчётыJPN
Риски и устойчивость страновых систем
Japan 2026
The State of Japan’s Interdependent Systems
Базовый выпуск 2026NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium
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Every quarter closes on a sealed evidence cut. A correction, a source or a method received before the cut is reviewed for that edition.
- NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE
- CC BY 4.0
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.
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