Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.
- Отчёты
- Риски и устойчивость страновых систем
- Базовый выпуск 2026
Доклад о системных рисках и устойчивости Германии 2026
The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems. The first annual edition of the Germany report. It fixes the 2026 reference state, the model, the voice and the positions against which every quarterly edition from Q1 2027 will be measured.
- Редактор
- Saeed Valadbaygi
- Бюро
- GCRI Systems Evidence
- Publisher of record
- GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
- Collection
- Germany 2026
- Закрытие доказательной базы
- 30 September 2026
- Статус
- Draft in stewardship review; not yet released
Риски и устойчивость страновых систем
Germany 2026
The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems
01 · Status
Status and boundaries.
This edition governs nothing and confers no certification. It records where the evidence stood at the 2026 baseline. Every value resolves to its source or to its stated method; where neither exists, the edition says so instead of filling the gap.
- Publication ID
- NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Series alias
- NR-NAT-DEU-2026-BL
- Family · class
- Страна Системная Risk & Resilience · Baseline Edition (inaugural annual)
- Lifecycle state
- ◌ DRAFT, review copy before stewardship review
- Publication date
- October 2026
- Закрытие доказательной базы
- 30 September 2026 · cut NQ-DEU-2026-Q0-1
- Воспроизводимость
- sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
- Access class
- PUBLIC-SAFE DERIVATIVE
- Рецензирование
- five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
- Designed for
- strategic planning · risk screening · resilience assessment · portfolio discussion · research · public communication
- Не для
- government assessment · official warning · rating · certification · investment advice · underwriting · procurement · operational authorisation
- Реестр
- record NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE · current-version pointer at release
- Исправления
- registry correction pathway · history in Annex C
- Использование ИИ
- disclosed in Annex C
- Next edition
- NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2027-Q1-v1.0.0 · Q1 2027
- Лицензия
- text CC BY 4.0 · data on the terms of each source
- Desk identifier
- NR-GCRI-DEU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Collection
- NR-COL-2026-BASELINE · NR-COL-2026-BASELINE-DEU
02 · Key messages
What the edition finds.
Five of the questions the edition answers, each with its status. The executive summary has all of them, with their sources.
649 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 48% below 1990, about 35 Mt a year of cuts still needed to 2030.
Where do emissions stand?Сообщённые данные
2024 was the warmest year on record; the first federal adaptation law took effect in July 2024.
Is the climate already changing?Сообщённые данные
Flash floods in small, steep valleys killed more than 180 people and caused about €40 billion of damage.
What did 2021 show?Сообщённые данные
Nearly half of homes have no natural-hazard cover; much damage falls on households and reconstruction funds.
Who carries flood losses?Сообщённые данные
Russian pipeline gas stopped; storage, LNG terminals and demand cuts filled the gap.
How did the energy system cope with 2022?Сообщённые данные
03 · Contents
Eight chapters and three annexes.
- ·
The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.
- 1
Chapter 1. Germany’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
Part I describes системы and their couplings.
- 2
Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked.
- 3
- 4
Chapter 4. Risks and capability
Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank.
- 5
Chapter 5. Hot, dry summer with low Rhine water
A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.
- 6
Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks
The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole.
- 7
Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda.
- 8
One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.
- A
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
- B
The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.
- C
Annex C. References and record
Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.
List of figures (4)
List of tables (42)
- 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
- 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
- 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
- 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
- 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
- 6.1Q1 2027 readiness pack
- 6.2Standards and regulatory watch
- 6.3Assessments and peer-reviewed science
- 6.4Institutional reports
- 6.5Official statistics and agency data
- 6.6Energy, insurance and nature
- 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
- 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
- 7.3Handoffs and routing
- 7.4Routing rules by publication class
- 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
- 7.6Signals at baseline
- 8.1State at baseline
- 8.2State at baseline
- 8.3State at baseline
- 8.4State at baseline
- 8.5State at baseline
- A.1Методы
- A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
- A.3Status grammar
- A.4From the baseline cut to the first Foundry cut
- A.5Evidence age and coverage
- A.6Coverage by system at baseline
- A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
- A.8Publication acceptance record
- A.9The status every value carries
- A.10Series terms
- A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
- A.12Technical annex
- B.1Baseline indicator set
- B.2Baseline indicator set
- B.3National source register
- B.4Regional reading, the Länder by region
- B.5Germany system card
- B.6Licences of each kind of material
- B.7This edition in every format
- C.1Release path for this version
04 · GCRI reading
How GCRI reads this edition.
The evidence supports a coupled reading of German risk. Extreme rain, low rivers, heat and forest dieback are already recorded, and the energy system has shown it can absorb a supply shock. Evidence is strongest for emissions, floods and energy, and weakest for cross-system dependencies.
CLI-001 · WAT-004 · ENE-007 · SYS-012
05 · Publication record
Version, dates and contributors.
The identity of this edition as its title pages record it. A review copy has no DOI; the DOI is issued at deposit.
- Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0- Версия
- 1.0.0, review copy
- Edition date
- Закрытие доказательной базы
- Статус
- Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
- Редактор
- Saeed Valadbaygi
- Publisher of record
- Глобальный центр по рискам и инновациям (The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation, GCRI)
- Licence of the text
- CC BY 4.0
- DOI
- Issued at deposit, on release
- Previous edition
- none, first edition of the series
- Next edition
- NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Contributors
| Роль | Вклад | By |
|---|---|---|
| Conceptualisation | Series architecture and the Germany system model | S. Valadbaygi (ed.) |
| Методология | Baseline method, dependency scoring and status grammar | Отчёты editorial team, GCRI |
| Investigation · data curation | Source review of national and international releases to evidence close | Reports editorial team, GCRI |
| Writing, original draft | All chapters; AI-assisted drafting, disclosed below | Editor · editorial team |
| Writing, review and editing | Five review passes before release | Steward reviewers (scheduled) |
| Visualisation | Pages, figures and tables in the Nexus design standard | Reports editorial team, GCRI |
| Надзор | Edition governance, registry record and deposit | S. Valadbaygi (ed.) |
Рецензирование до выпуска
| Пролёт | Охват | By | Статус |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scientific and technical | GCRI · key T | Запланировано |
| 2 | Reproducibility of analytical values | GCRI · key T | Запланировано |
| 3 | Public meaning and claims | The Global Risks Forum (GRF) · key M | Запланировано |
| 4 | Finance-readiness boundary | The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · key F | Запланировано |
| 5 | Country context and safeguards | National pathway · key N | Запланировано |
AI assistance was used for drafting, consistency checks and page composition. Every number, citation and status label was checked against its source by the editorial team before freeze. No AI system is recorded as an author or a reviewer, and no AI output is printed as fact without a source.
06 · Downloads
Read it in print, take the data.
Draft, not yet releasedReview copies of a draft in stewardship review. The released edition carries its DOI and replaces them.
Печать
PDF, A4
The designed print edition, A4: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.
PDF96 pages785 KBTagged, with bookmarks
SHA-256
eaef63a3a9041fed3a137f19de81ab4be1d423140b6db6170c626fbc53f2df78PDF, US Letter
The designed print edition, US Letter: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.
PDF103 pages792 KBTagged, with bookmarks
SHA-256
3bad221d1311c84d61df121f2b76065cbd36630f0b87608f97a6a4241be1aeb3
Web edition
Complete edition, one page
Every chapter and annex at one address, with running heads when printed from the browser
HTML
Edition home
Key messages, contents, citation and the readings of each desk
HTML
Data bundle
Indicators, CSV
14 indicators with unit, year, status and source
NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv1 KB
SHA-256
7cdcc4911ce220a7fde063719015575e9dc05e46a8c13a6a9e9e2eeca52889f6Indicators, JSON
The same indicators with the edition’s identity and licence
NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json2 KB
SHA-256
3110512b848d18cdbab16016687c64df64e86af9bc1a39d26dfe0129df585171Findings, CSV
12 findings with status, evidence-quality level and references
NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-findings.csv2 KB
SHA-256
27ee862acdba6045caa6e396fa51ca5cb16f591ae811fa87046c8017faa9ce4a
Citation files
Citation, BibTeX
For LaTeX and reference managers
NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE.bib1 KB
SHA-256
f0666495d837247699a65ff87e81ede5bbf8632df60cba17de97dbc350f31de2Citation, RIS
For Zotero, EndNote and Mendeley
NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE.ris1 KB
SHA-256
4faab706d2ad1289de46dd9ac178862aff23e67ce837d405d7e538da99ddea1dCitation, CITATION.cff
Citation File Format 1.2.0, for GitHub, Zenodo and software catalogues
NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE.cff1 KB
SHA-256
061fab17264aadb2591b6e082b3ba160800e877677b27a369dfc552a59c45153
Check a file with its SHA-256: shasum -a 256 <file> (macOS, Linux) or Get-FileHash <file> (Windows). Text, tables and figures by Nexus: CC BY 4.0; each source keeps its own licence.
07 · Cite
Cite this report.
Standards applied to NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE
Cite as
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Germany Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems. Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
Applied
NS-1 catalogue identity (a UNI is allocated at deposit and resolves to this record), NS-2 citation and attribution, NS-3b dataset metadata, NS-5 figures and maps, NS-12 software and AI disclosure.
Мониторинг
Corrections are new versions with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.
An attestation is evidence, not a certificate. Nexus Standards parts are preparatory working drafts (2026).
APA 7
Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Germany Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/deu/
Chicago
Valadbaygi, Saeed, ed. Germany Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems. Baseline Edition 2026. Nexus Reports NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE. Draft under review. Toronto: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), 2026. https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/deu/.
BibTeX
@techreport{NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE,
editor = {Valadbaygi, Saeed},
title = {{Germany Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026}: The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems},
institution = {The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)},
address = {Toronto},
year = {2026},
type = {Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026},
number = {NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE},
note = {Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit},
url = {https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/deu/}
}RIS
TY - RPRT ED - Valadbaygi, Saeed TI - Germany Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems T3 - Nexus Reports ET - Baseline Edition 2026 PY - 2026 PB - The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) CY - Toronto SN - NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE UR - https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/deu/ N1 - Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit. LA - en ER -
NR-CIT-1 (house style)
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Germany Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems. Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
08 · Related
In the same series, and across the Consortium.
- ОтчётыCAN
Риски и устойчивость страновых систем
Canada 2026
The State of Canada’s Interdependent Systems
Базовый выпуск 2026NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - ОтчётыUSA
Риски и устойчивость страновых систем
United States 2026
The State of the United States’ Interdependent Systems
Базовый выпуск 2026NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - ОтчётыGBR
Риски и устойчивость страновых систем
United Kingdom 2026
The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems
Базовый выпуск 2026NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - ОтчётыFRA
Риски и устойчивость страновых систем
France 2026
The State of France’s Interdependent Systems
Базовый выпуск 2026NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - ОтчётыITA
Риски и устойчивость страновых систем
Italy 2026
The State of Italy’s Interdependent Systems
Базовый выпуск 2026NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - ОтчётыJPN
Риски и устойчивость страновых систем
Japan 2026
The State of Japan’s Interdependent Systems
Базовый выпуск 2026NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium
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Reports · GCRI
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Every quarter closes on a sealed evidence cut. A correction, a source or a method received before the cut is reviewed for that edition.
- NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE
- CC BY 4.0
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.
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