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德国系统风险与韧性报告 2026

The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems. The first annual edition of the Germany report. It fixes the 2026 reference state, the model, the voice and the positions against which every quarterly edition from Q1 2027 will be measured.

Read the executive summaryDownload PDF · A4 · 785 KB · 96 pagesUS Letter, data and citation filesCite this report
编辑
Saeed Valadbaygi
办事处
GCRI Systems Evidence
正式出版方
GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Collection
Germany 2026
证据截止
30 September 2026
状态
Draft in stewardship review; not yet released
报告DEU

国家系统风险与韧性

Germany 2026

The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems

2026 基准版NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium
发现12each with its status and source
来源40numbered, editor first
Chapters and annexes11plus the executive summary
指标14in the data appendix, with CSV and JSON

01 · Status

Status and boundaries.

This edition governs nothing and confers no certification. It records where the evidence stood at the 2026 baseline. Every value resolves to its source or to its stated method; where neither exists, the edition says so instead of filling the gap.

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Series alias
NR-NAT-DEU-2026-BL
Family · class
国家 系统 Risk & Resilience · Baseline Edition (inaugural annual)
Lifecycle state
◌ DRAFT, review copy before stewardship review
Publication date
October 2026
证据截止
30 September 2026 · cut NQ-DEU-2026-Q0-1
可复现性
sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Access class
PUBLIC-SAFE DERIVATIVE
审核
five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Designed for
strategic planning · risk screening · resilience assessment · portfolio discussion · research · public communication
不适用于
government assessment · official warning · rating · certification · investment advice · underwriting · procurement · operational authorisation
登记册
record NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE · current-version pointer at release
更正
registry correction pathway · history in Annex C
人工智能使用
disclosed in Annex C
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2027-Q1-v1.0.0 · Q1 2027
许可协议
text CC BY 4.0 · data on the terms of each source
Desk identifier
NR-GCRI-DEU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Collection
NR-COL-2026-BASELINE · NR-COL-2026-BASELINE-DEU

02 · Key messages

What the edition finds.

Five of the questions the edition answers, each with its status. The executive summary has all of them, with their sources.

  1. 649 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 48% below 1990, about 35 Mt a year of cuts still needed to 2030.

    Where do emissions stand?报告值

  2. 2024 was the warmest year on record; the first federal adaptation law took effect in July 2024.

    Is the climate already changing?报告值

  3. Flash floods in small, steep valleys killed more than 180 people and caused about €40 billion of damage.

    What did 2021 show?报告值

  4. Nearly half of homes have no natural-hazard cover; much damage falls on households and reconstruction funds.

    Who carries flood losses?报告值

  5. Russian pipeline gas stopped; storage, LNG terminals and demand cuts filled the gap.

    How did the energy system cope with 2022?报告值

All key messages and the headline finding

03 · Contents

Eight chapters and three annexes.

  1. ·

    Executive summary

    The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

  2. 1

    Chapter 1. Germany’s risk is coupled, not cumulative

    Part I describes 系统 and their couplings.

  3. 2

    Chapter 2. Key findings

    Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked.

  4. 3

    Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline

  5. 4

    Chapter 4. Risks and capability

    Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank.

  6. 5

    Chapter 5. Hot, dry summer with low Rhine water

    A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

  7. 6

    Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks

    The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole.

  8. 7

    Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda

    Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda.

  9. 8

    Chapter 8. Systems in depth

    One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

  10. A

    Annex A. Methodology

    How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

  11. B

    Annex B. Data appendix

    The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

  12. C

    Annex C. References and record

    Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

List of figures (4)
  1. S.1July 2021 floods in Germany
  2. 1.1Who abstracts Germany’s water? Share of water abstraction, by sector (%)
  3. 1.2Couplings across the six sectors
  4. 2.1July 2021 floods in Germany
List of tables (42)
  1. 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
  2. 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
  3. 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
  4. 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
  5. 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
  6. 6.1Q1 2027 readiness pack
  7. 6.2Standards and regulatory watch
  8. 6.3Assessments and peer-reviewed science
  9. 6.4Institutional reports
  10. 6.5Official statistics and agency data
  11. 6.6Energy, insurance and nature
  12. 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
  13. 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
  14. 7.3Handoffs and routing
  15. 7.4Routing rules by publication class
  16. 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
  17. 7.6Signals at baseline
  18. 8.1State at baseline
  19. 8.2State at baseline
  20. 8.3State at baseline
  21. 8.4State at baseline
  22. 8.5State at baseline
  23. A.1方法
  24. A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
  25. A.3Status grammar
  26. A.4From the baseline cut to the first Foundry cut
  27. A.5Evidence age and coverage
  28. A.6Coverage by system at baseline
  29. A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
  30. A.8Publication acceptance record
  31. A.9The status every value carries
  32. A.10Series terms
  33. A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
  34. A.12Technical annex
  35. B.1Baseline indicator set
  36. B.2Baseline indicator set
  37. B.3National source register
  38. B.4Regional reading, the Länder by region
  39. B.5Germany system card
  40. B.6Licences of each kind of material
  41. B.7This edition in every format
  42. C.1Release path for this version

04 · GCRI reading

How GCRI reads this edition.

The evidence supports a coupled reading of German risk. Extreme rain, low rivers, heat and forest dieback are already recorded, and the energy system has shown it can absorb a supply shock. Evidence is strongest for emissions, floods and energy, and weakest for cross-system dependencies.

CLI-001 · WAT-004 · ENE-007 · SYS-012

Chapter 6, lenses and readings

05 · Publication record

Version, dates and contributors.

The identity of this edition as its title pages record it. A review copy has no DOI; the DOI is issued at deposit.

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
版本
1.0.0, review copy
Edition date
证据截止
状态
Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
编辑
Saeed Valadbaygi
正式出版方
全球风险与创新中心（Global Centre for Risk and Innovation，GCRI）
Licence of the text
CC BY 4.0
DOI
Issued at deposit, on release
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2027-Q1-v1.0.0

Contributors

角色贡献By
ConceptualisationSeries architecture and the Germany system modelS. Valadbaygi (ed.)
方法论Baseline method, dependency scoring and status grammar报告 editorial team, GCRI
Investigation · data curationSource review of national and international releases to evidence closeReports editorial team, GCRI
Writing, original draftAll chapters; AI-assisted drafting, disclosed belowEditor · editorial team
Writing, review and editingFive review passes before releaseSteward reviewers (scheduled)
VisualisationPages, figures and tables in the Nexus design standardReports editorial team, GCRI
监管Edition governance, registry record and depositS. Valadbaygi (ed.)

发布前评审

通过范围By状态
1Scientific and technicalGCRI · key T已排期
2Reproducibility of analytical valuesGCRI · key T已排期
3Public meaning and claimsThe Global Risks Forum (GRF) · key M已排期
4Finance-readiness boundaryThe Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · key F已排期
5Country context and safeguardsNational pathway · key N已排期

AI assistance was used for drafting, consistency checks and page composition. Every number, citation and status label was checked against its source by the editorial team before freeze. No AI system is recorded as an author or a reviewer, and no AI output is printed as fact without a source.

06 · Downloads

Read it in print, take the data.

Draft, not yet releasedReview copies of a draft in stewardship review. The released edition carries its DOI and replaces them.

  • 打印

    • PDF, A4

      The designed print edition, A4: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.

      PDF96 pages785 KBTagged, with bookmarks

      SHA-256 eaef63a3a9041fed3a137f19de81ab4be1d423140b6db6170c626fbc53f2df78

      下载: PDF, A4

    • PDF, US Letter

      The designed print edition, US Letter: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.

      PDF103 pages792 KBTagged, with bookmarks

      SHA-256 3bad221d1311c84d61df121f2b76065cbd36630f0b87608f97a6a4241be1aeb3

      下载: PDF, US Letter

  • Web edition

  • Data bundle

    • Indicators, CSV

      14 indicators with unit, year, status and source

      NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv1 KB

      SHA-256 7cdcc4911ce220a7fde063719015575e9dc05e46a8c13a6a9e9e2eeca52889f6

      下载: Indicators, CSV

    • Indicators, JSON

      The same indicators with the edition’s identity and licence

      NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json2 KB

      SHA-256 3110512b848d18cdbab16016687c64df64e86af9bc1a39d26dfe0129df585171

      下载: Indicators, JSON

    • Findings, CSV

      12 findings with status, evidence-quality level and references

      NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-findings.csv2 KB

      SHA-256 27ee862acdba6045caa6e396fa51ca5cb16f591ae811fa87046c8017faa9ce4a

      下载: Findings, CSV

  • Citation files

    • Citation, BibTeX

      For LaTeX and reference managers

      NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE.bib1 KB

      SHA-256 f0666495d837247699a65ff87e81ede5bbf8632df60cba17de97dbc350f31de2

      下载: Citation, BibTeX

    • Citation, RIS

      For Zotero, EndNote and Mendeley

      NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE.ris1 KB

      SHA-256 4faab706d2ad1289de46dd9ac178862aff23e67ce837d405d7e538da99ddea1d

      下载: Citation, RIS

    • Citation, CITATION.cff

      Citation File Format 1.2.0, for GitHub, Zenodo and software catalogues

      NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE.cff1 KB

      SHA-256 061fab17264aadb2591b6e082b3ba160800e877677b27a369dfc552a59c45153

      下载: Citation, CITATION.cff

Check a file with its SHA-256: shasum -a 256 <file> (macOS, Linux) or Get-FileHash <file> (Windows). Text, tables and figures by Nexus: CC BY 4.0; each source keeps its own licence.

07 · Cite

Cite this report.

This edition is a draft in stewardship review. Cite it as a draft; the DOI and the UNI are issued at deposit, and the citation then names them.
Catalogue keyNR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE

Standards applied to NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE

Cite as

S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Germany Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems. Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.

Applied

NS-1 catalogue identity (a UNI is allocated at deposit and resolves to this record), NS-2 citation and attribution, NS-3b dataset metadata, NS-5 figures and maps, NS-12 software and AI disclosure.

监测

Corrections are new versions with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.

An attestation is evidence, not a certificate. Nexus Standards parts are preparatory working drafts (2026).

APA 7
Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Germany Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/deu/
Chicago
Valadbaygi, Saeed, ed. Germany Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems. Baseline Edition 2026. Nexus Reports NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE. Draft under review. Toronto: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), 2026. https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/deu/.
BibTeX
@techreport{NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE,
  editor      = {Valadbaygi, Saeed},
  title       = {{Germany Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026}: The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems},
  institution = {The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)},
  address     = {Toronto},
  year        = {2026},
  type        = {Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026},
  number      = {NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE},
  note        = {Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit},
  url         = {https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/deu/}
}
RIS
TY  - RPRT
ED  - Valadbaygi, Saeed
TI  - Germany Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems
T3  - Nexus Reports
ET  - Baseline Edition 2026
PY  - 2026
PB  - The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
CY  - Toronto
SN  - NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE
UR  - https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/deu/
N1  - Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit.
LA  - en
ER  -
NR-CIT-1 (house style)
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Germany Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems. Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
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CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

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