GCRI · علم سامانه‌ها و مدل‌سازی

Reviewed models and scenarios

Model descriptions for سامانه‌ها Science and Modelling are published here once reviewed, with their assumptions, evidence and validation. They describe models; they are not live simulations.

02What is shown

Released, referenced and rights-cleared.

  • Time and space reference for every view.
  • Sources and licence.
  • Uncertainty and known limits.
  • Version and date of release.
03Model classes

The kinds of model systems modelling work relies on.

Model classOpen examplesQuestion it answersاعتبارسنجی
Coupled sector modelsISIMIP ensemblesCross-sector impactsIntercomparison
Agent-based modelsDocumented with ODDEmergent behaviourPattern validation
Network cascade modelsOpen network toolsسرایترویدادهای گذشته
Robust decision کشوریOpen exploratory modelling toolsRobust optionsScenario coverage
04فرایند

نحوهٔ اجرای فرایند.

Process explorer · Process

Reviewed models and scenarios: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability

10 steps4 مرحله

فرایند

Reviewed models and scenarios: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability

In IPCC AR6 Working Group II, climate risk results from interactions between hazards and a system’s exposure and vulnerability, and responses can add risk.

  1. 01 Drivers

    1. 01مخاطرهDataset · User agencyThe potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend that may harm people, property, services or ecosystems.
    2. 02مواجههDataset · User agencyThe presence of people, livelihoods, species, ecosystems, infrastructure or assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected.
    3. 03حساسیتDataset · User agencyThe degree to which a system or species is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or change.
    4. 04Capacity to cope and adaptDataset · User agencyThe ability of سامانه‌ها, institutions, humans and other organisms to adjust to damage, take opportunities or respond to consequences.
  2. 02 Assessment

    1. 05Risk from responsesComponent · User agencyRisks from climate responses arise when responses miss their objectives, or from trade-offs or negative side effects.
    2. 06آسیب‌پذیریComponent · User agencyThe propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. It includes sensitivity to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.
    3. 07ریسکModel · Systems Science and ModellingRisk results from dynamic interactions between hazards and the system’s exposure and vulnerability. Each may be uncertain and change.
  3. 03 Response

    1. 08Risk management and responseStep · User agencyRisk management is plans, actions, strategies or policies that reduce the likelihood or size of adverse consequences.
    2. 09ریسک باقیماندهRecord · User agencyThe climate impact risk that remains after adaptation and mitigation efforts. Adaptation can redistribute risk between areas and groups.
  4. 04 Decision

    1. 10Decision by the responsible partyDecision · User agencyThe framing names no single decision maker. Decisions on responses rest with the responsible party under its own rules.

Outline of an external standard or method, from its public sources. It describes what the framework says, not a record of any run. It does not show that Nexus or any partner performs, certifies or approves a step. A gate is a step of the method, never a Nexus approval.

05وضعیت

Releases appear as they are reviewed.

Analysis runs in ⁨Foundry⁩; reviewed releases are listed here.

06منابع

Where this page’s references lead.

نهادها و اسنادی که این صفحه بر پایهٔ آن‌ها خوانده می‌شود. وضعیت و ویراست‌ها تغییر می‌کنند؛ هر پیوند به نهاد صادرکننده می‌رود.

07پرسش‌ها

پرسش و پاسخ.

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گزارش‌هامشارکت

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گزارش‌ها is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

GCRIعلوم سامانه‌ها و مدل‌سازیروش‌ها و فنیسناریو و آزمون تنش
علوم سامانه‌ها و مدل‌سازی

یک روش، یک مجموعه‌داده یا یک پرسش بیاورید.

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