The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
The methods Biodiversity Nexus relies on, the assumptions they carry and the limits of what they can show.
Methods and uncertainty · Review wave 2
0 low to 100 high
Higher is more certain. Values are placeholders.
Biodiversity Nexus · Evidence gradingEvidence grading, in outline: domain structure with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record.
The Biodiversity Nexus methods page sets out the methods the platform relies on, among them ecology and biodiversity science, Earth observation and remote sensing, and spatial statistics and geostatistics, with their assumptions, validation and limits. Each analysis lists its assumptions and data, reports ranges and confidence beside central estimates, is checked against observations or other models, and states what it cannot show.
Fig.How a finding is reviewed before it is published. Design, not a record.
Mountain ranges, deserts, wetlands, glaciers and reefs, and how remote each division is from large cities, shown for the Rhine and the Alps as an example geography for this subject.
| Source | Why it matters here | How it is reported |
|---|---|---|
| Species distribution | Occurrence records are biased by sampling effort | Bias correction and stated sampling coverage |
| Ecosystem condition | Indicators differ by ecosystem type and reference state | Condition indices following SEEA with reference levels stated |
| Thresholds | Tipping points are uncertain and site-specific | Ranges and early-warning signals, never a single value |
| Service valuation | Depends on beneficiaries and methods | Physical flows reported before money values |
| Land-cover change | Classification error in remote sensing | Accuracy assessment with each product |
Biodiversity metrics are reported with their spatial and temporal scope; a global index is never applied to a site.
Each analysis lists its assumptions and the data it depends on.
Ranges and confidence are reported alongside central estimates.
Models are checked against observations and, where possible, against other models.
What an analysis cannot show is stated beside what it can.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Uncertainty quantification | Characterising and propagating the uncertainties in a model to state confidence in its outputs. |
| Sensitivity analysis | Repeating an analysis under different assumptions to show how much the result depends on them. |
| Model validation | Comparing model predictions with independent observations to judge fitness for a stated use. |
| Ecology and biodiversity science | Ecology studies the interactions among organisms and between organisms and their environment, from populations to ecosystems. |
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.