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GCRI · Mathematics, statistics and data

Spatial statistics and geostatistics

Spatial statistics and geostatistics analyse data that vary across space, accounting for spatial dependence. They estimate values at unsampled locations and test for spatial patterns. Space and Earth Observation stewards this page for the Nexus Consortium.

02The method

What spatial statistics and geostatistics covers.

  1. 01

    Core methods

    kriging; variogram analysis; spatial autocorrelation tests; point process modelling; spatial regression; hotspot analysis.

  2. 02

    Data and instruments

    monitoring station networks; georeferenced surveys; remote sensing products; administrative area statistics; point event records.

  3. 03

    Validation

    Predictions are tested using spatial cross-validation that respects dependence. Uncertainty maps are compared with independent observations.

  4. 04

    Limits

    Results depend on the scale and zoning of analysis. Sparse or clustered sampling limits prediction in unsampled areas.

  5. 05

    Use in risk decisions

    Spatial statistics produce continuous hazard and exposure surfaces with uncertainty. They reveal geographic clustering of risks and vulnerabilities across sectors.

03Geography

Energy now worldwide.

Night lights, population density and sunlight across the world, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 3

Energy now, for this page

About this layer
Evidence
Observed
Source
VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2) (NASA LAADS DAAC)
Provider
NASA LAADS DAAC
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite radiance, corrected for moonlight and atmosphere
Newest at build
2026-10-12
Resolution
about 500 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite night-time radiance for the date shown; lights are a proxy for electricity use and outages, not a measurement of supply or access.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Estimated
Source
Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
Provider
NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
Licence
CC BY 4.0
Vintage
null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
Resolution
about 1 km grid
Uncertainty
Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Modelled (latest month GIBS publishes)
Source
MERRA-2 (NASA GMAO / GES DISC)
Provider
NASA GMAO / GES DISC
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
monthly; Reanalysis model; latest month GIBS publishes
Newest at build
2026-07-01
Resolution
about 2 km grid
Uncertainty
Reanalysis model estimate of monthly mean incoming sunlight over land; an indicator of solar resource, not a site yield assessment.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed
Source
VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite image
Newest at build
2026-10-14
Resolution
about 250 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Modelled (latest year GIBS publishes)
Source
MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1) (NASA LP DAAC)
Provider
NASA LP DAAC
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
yearly; Satellite classification; latest year GIBS publishes
Newest at build
2024-01-01
Resolution
about 500 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite land cover classes for the year shown, including croplands; a classification with known errors, not a farm register.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed (clouds leave gaps)
Source
VIIRS NOAA-20 (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite retrieval; clouds leave gaps
Newest at build
2026-10-14
Resolution
about 1 km grid
Uncertainty
Satellite skin temperature of the ground on the day shown, an indicator of cooling demand; not air temperature or a heat warning.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

Energy now, framed on the world.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · NASA/NOAA VIIRS · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERTSources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
  • MERRA-2 reanalysis, NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office; distributed by the NASA GES DISC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
  • Observed (EO): NASA/NOAA VIIRS (Suomi NPP). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • Past year, daily temperature (ERA5 via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026.
  • Past year, daily temperature and sunshine (NASA POWER): These data were obtained from the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) POWER Project funded through the NASA Earth Science/Applied Science Program..
  • Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
  • Optional layers (10 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Incoming sunlight at the surface over land, monthly mean: MERRA-2, NASA GMAO / GES DISC · July 2026
  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
  • Land surface temperature, day: VIIRS NOAA-20, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026

04Reference practice

Spatial statistics supports mapping and small-area estimation.

ReferenceWhat it sets
Geostatistics (kriging)Interpolation with uncertainty
Small-area estimationSubnational estimates from surveys
WorldPop and GHSLGridded population
05Process

How the process runs.

Process

Spatial statistics and geostatistics: Layers to published map

Layers enter with their rights, are aligned, analysed and checked for uncertainty, then released after public-safe review; a map is a governed spatial claim.

  1. 01 Data

    1. 01Source layers with their rightsDataset · NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk)Spatial views of The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX) products sit under the boundary licence gate. Rights classification sets how a layer may be used.
  2. 02 Harmonise

    1. 02Coordinate reference and boundary versionRecord · NXS-EOP (earth observation and digital twins)The area of interest preserves its coordinate reference system, polygon validity and observation support. Boundary versions are kept.
    2. 03Harmonise units, variables and timeStepUnit metadata, conversion records and transformation logs are required. Alignment is an evidence event, not hidden preprocessing.
  3. 03 Analyse and check

    1. 04Analyse with a recorded processing recipeModel · GIS teamA processing recipe records parameters, calibration, inputs and output lineage. The analysis methods are named in each product’s own record.
    2. 05Spatial uncertainty checkGateSpatial uncertainty is recorded and affects downstream use. A high-uncertainty polygon may suit internal review, not public-safe release.
  4. 04 Publish

    1. 06Spatial metadata bundleRecordThe bundle records boundary type, jurisdiction, geometry version, projection, resolution, source, time window, uncertainty and access class.
    2. 07Public-safe release of the mapDecisionThe output record names the redactions, uncertainty and public-safe reviewer. A map is a governed spatial claim, never merely a picture.

Spatio-temporal intelligence · Data protocols: semantic, jurisdictional and temporal intelligence · NXS-EOPDesigned programme process, not a record of operation. No cycle has run and every programme is at service level R0. A gate is a programme decision, never a public-authority approval, certification or deployment authorisation. The pages cited are design doctrine.

06In systemic risk work

Where, with what uncertainty.

Risk maps interpolate between observations and disaggregate statistics. Spatial statistics provides uncertainty maps alongside estimates, which is essential when targeting resources: a district that looks high-risk may simply be data-poor.

  • Publish uncertainty maps with estimates.
  • Account for spatial autocorrelation in inference.
  • Check gridded population against census.
  • Applications on Space and Earth Observation and Food Nexus.
08Stewardship

Who maintains this page.

Space and Earth Observation stewards spatial statistics and geostatistics: it keeps this description current and reviews how the method is applied across the platforms.

09Sources

Where this page’s references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

10Questions

Questions and answers.

Why does one institution host every method page?
GCRI hosts the STEM Commons so that each method has one canonical description. Platforms link to it rather than repeat it, which keeps definitions consistent.
How do I suggest a correction to a method page?
Write to the integrity concern form with the passage and the reason.
ReportsContribute

Contribute evidence from this page.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

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