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GCRI · 生物技术与生物安全

生物威胁

Biological threats include naturally emerging diseases, accidental releases from laboratories or facilities, and deliberate misuse. Each has different origins but similar consequences once an agent spreads. This topic, studied at Biotechnology and Biosecurity, a platform of The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), examines how biological risks arise, how they are assessed and how preparedness reduces their consequences. It works at the level of 系统 and governance, never technical detail.

02核心问题

专家提出的问题。

  • How is the overall level of biological risk assessed when events are rare and uncertain?
  • What drives the emergence of new infectious diseases?
  • How can accidental releases be reduced without halting essential research?
  • How do detection, attribution and response capacities interact?
  • Which preparedness investments reduce consequences across many kinds of threat?
03地理

西非的环境暴露。

西非的白天地表热量、人口密度和霾,来自 NASA GIBS。每个图层均标有各自日期。

交互式地图需要JavaScript;图层列表和来源见下文。

图层 3

本页的环境暴露

关于本图层
证据
观测(持续云层仍会造成缺口)
来源
VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3,8 天(NASA LANCE)
提供方
NASA LANCE
许可协议
NASA 开放数据
年份版本
8 天;卫星 8 天合成;持续云层仍会造成缺口
构建时的最新内容
2026-09-14
处理结果
约 1 公里网格
不确定性
截至所示日期的 8 天内地表的卫星皮肤温度,是高温风险暴露指标;不是气温、热指数,也不是高温预警。
经由以下途径到达
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov,仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
证据
估计值
来源
世界网格化人口 v4.11(NASA SEDAC(哥伦比亚大学 CIESIN))
提供方
NASA SEDAC(哥伦比亚大学 CIESIN)
许可协议
CC BY 4.0
年份版本
null;基于人口普查的估算,静态(2020)
处理结果
约 1 公里网格
不确定性
基于人口普查的 2020 年每平方公里人口估算,作为风险暴露背景展示;不是受任何危害影响的人数。
经由以下途径到达
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov,仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
证据
观测(云层造成缺口)
来源
VIIRS NOAA-20 Deep Blue AOD(NASA LANCE)
提供方
NASA LANCE
许可协议
NASA 开放数据
年份版本
每日;卫星反演;云层造成缺口
构建时的最新内容
2026-10-14
处理结果
约 2 公里网格
不确定性
对所示日期整个气柱中霾、烟和沙尘的卫星测量;是风险暴露指标,不是地面 PM2.5、空气质量指数,也不是健康预警。
经由以下途径到达
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov,仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
证据
观测(云层造成缺口)
来源
MODIS Terra NDVI(NASA LANCE)
提供方
NASA LANCE
许可协议
NASA 开放数据
年份版本
每日;卫星指数;云层造成缺口
构建时的最新内容
2026-10-13
处理结果
约 250 米网格
不确定性
截至所示日期 8 天的卫星绿度指数;是作物和牧草状况的指标,不是产量估算,也不是粮食安全预警。
经由以下途径到达
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov,仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
证据
观测(云层造成缺口)
来源
OMI Aura(NASA GES DISC)
提供方
NASA GES DISC
许可协议
NASA 开放数据
年份版本
每日;卫星反演;云层造成缺口
构建时的最新内容
2026-10-10
处理结果
约 2 公里网格
不确定性
所示日期低层大气二氧化氮的卫星柱含量,主要来自燃烧;不是地面浓度,也不是健康预警。
经由以下途径到达
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov,仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
证据
观测
来源
VIIRS NOAA-20 校正反射率(NASA LANCE)
提供方
NASA LANCE
许可协议
NASA 开放数据
年份版本
每日;卫星图像
构建时的最新内容
2026-10-14
处理结果
约 250 米网格
不确定性
卫星图像。卫星或模型栅格数据,按提供方发布的原样呈现。云层、条带缺口和反演误差会造成缺口和噪声;数值是指标,而非某地的测量值。
经由以下途径到达
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov,仅在您允许实时地图后访问

最新可用

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap贡献者 (ODbL) · Natural Earth

正在加载最新的NASA影像。

拖动以移动。按住 Ctrl 或 ⌘ 并滚动、双指缩放或使用按钮缩放;悬停可查看指针下的数值;重置可返回该区域。

环境风险暴露,以西非为取景。NASA 发布的卫星和模型产品,各带自己的日期。它们是指标,而非对任何地点的评估。

数据:NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap 贡献者 · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · ESA Copernicus Sentinel-5P TROPOMI · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT来源与许可

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA 开放数据
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA 开放数据
  • VIIRS 近实时产品(洪水、地表温度、积雪覆盖、校正反射率),NASA LANCE;影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。 NASA 开放数据
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). 采用 CC BY 4.0 许可。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。 doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
  • MODIS 和 VIIRS 大气产品,NASA LANCE 和 LAADS DAAC;影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。 NASA 开放数据
  • MODIS 陆地产品(植被指数、总初级生产力、土地覆盖),NASA LP DAAC 和 LANCE;影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。 NASA 开放数据
  • OMI 二氧化氮(Aura)和 OMPS 气溶胶指数(Suomi NPP),NASA;由 NASA GES DISC 分发;影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。 NASA 开放数据
  • ASTER GDEM 是 METI 和 NASA 的产品(ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003,NASA LP DAAC);影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。引用格式:NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA 开放数据
  • 使用 Natural Earth 制作。免费矢量和栅格地图数据,见 naturalearthdata.com。 公有领域
  • © OpenStreetMap 贡献者(ODbL),经由 NASA GIBS(海岸线、边界、道路和地名)。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。 ODbL
  • Blue Marble,NASA Earth Observatory;影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。 NASA 开放数据
  • 地球仪和平面地图上的背景信息:海岸线、边界、道路和地名来自 NASA GIBS 参考图层(OpenStreetMap 数据,ODbL,© OpenStreetMap contributors);Blue Marble 影像可作为可选底图;3D 地形和高程读数来自 ASTER GDEM 高程色彩指数(5 m 至 200 m 分级,为便于辨识而作了夸张处理)。边界按已发布的样式绘制,不代表对任何领土的立场。
  • 实时事件:NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker(EONET);事件仅供参考,并保留其原始来源链接。
  • Observed (EO): ESA Copernicus Sentinel-5P TROPOMI (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • 空气质量预报,5 天,PM2.5(CAMS,经由 Open-Meteo):包含经修改的 Copernicus 大气监测服务 2026 年信息。
  • 过去一年的每日气温(ERA5,经由 Open-Meteo):包含经修改的 Copernicus 气候变化服务 2026 年信息。
  • 天气数据来自 Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), 依据 CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). 授权。
  • 可选图层(图层列表中有 14 个来源:实时、预报、观测和背景)在开启时会在地图上和此处显示其提供方署名;预报是模型输出,派生指数是估计值。

图层与日期

  • 地表温度,日间,8 天合成:VIIRS NOAA-20 3 级产品,8 天,NASA LANCE · 2026年9月14日
  • 人口密度,2020 年:人口:哥伦比亚大学 CIESIN,世界网格化人口 v4.11(2018),NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · 静态
  • 气溶胶光学厚度,每日:VIIRS NOAA-20 Deep Blue AOD,NASA LANCE · 2026年10月13日
  • 植被绿度(NDVI),滚动 8 天:MODIS Terra NDVI,NASA LANCE · 2026年10月13日
  • 二氧化氮,低层大气柱:OMI Aura,NASA GES DISC · 2026年10月10日
  • 真彩色:VIIRS NOAA-20 校正反射率,NASA LANCE · 2026年10月13日

04跨领域

Biological threats reach every domain, from farms to hospitals.

Preparedness studies are designed for the 情景与压力测试系列, without any detail that could enable misuse. The Biological Weapons Convention prohibits biological weapons; GCRI’s work here is defensive and preparatory only.

  • Preparedness evaluations.
  • Policy analyses of biosecurity governance.
05监测

监督与能力登记册。

团队跟踪该主题时会使用的界面:其指标、状态与决策。名称为示例,数值仅作示意。

监督与能力登记册

Biological threats · National committee · Review year 1

  • 设有委员会的机构,%
    86关注
  • 已培训员工,%
    67正常
  • 已完成审查
    50今年
  • 已提交的事件报告
    3信息
仅限能力建设与监督GCRI · 生物技术与生物安全

机构监督

A 机构活跃Q387当前
研究园区活跃Q387审计到期
生物制造场所组建中无60支持
诊断网络活跃Q391当前

范围说明

涵盖
治理、培训、审查能力
不包括
技术方法与智能体
权限
国家监督机构
标签
SURVEY
Oversight and capacity register: the screen’s structure, terms and states for Biological threats.示例名称和示意数值;是设计方案,并非记录或实时系统。
06机制

驱动因素与动态。

Natural emergence is driven by contact between people, animals and environments: land-use change, wildlife trade, intensive livestock production and travel all increase opportunities for pathogens to cross between species and spread. Accidental releases arise from failures of containment, procedure or equipment, and from human error. Deliberate threats depend on intent and capability, both of which are shaped by access to materials, knowledge and equipment.

Consequences depend heavily on preparedness: surveillance that detects events early, laboratory capacity to identify agents, public health 系统 able to respond, and supplies of countermeasures. Many of these capacities protect against all kinds of biological threat, regardless of origin. The platform works at the level of governance, evaluation and risk methods. It publishes no protocols, techniques or information that would increase anyone’s capacity to cause harm.

07孪生与级联模拟器

Model biological threats as a system. Run the cascade.

Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile 与《国际卫生条例》保持一致: the hazards it names, the 系统 and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.

控制措施

  • NS-3 风险记录 UNI(语法、旧编码对照、分配机构)
  • NS-10 政策和条款(机器可读的义务:定义、约束、评估和执行)
  • NS-11 验证与监测(证据、证明、零信任符合性观测)
  • NRS-H83 Hazard family: Health system capacity failure (NHS-1 health.system)
  • NRS-H41 危害族:动物向人类的溢出(NHS-1 health.zoonotic)
  • NRS-H112 危害族:治理与机构失效(NHS-1 soc.governance)
  • NRS-H120 危害族:互联系统的结构性脆弱(NHS-1 sys.fragility)
  • NRS-H29 危害类别:空气污染事件(NHS-1 poll.air-quality)
  • NRS-H40 危害类别:血源性和性传播感染(NHS-1 health.bloodborne)

观测

  • WHO Global Health Observatory OData API (including SPAR capacity scores) (listed for reference)
  • e-SPAR public portal (listed for reference)
  • WHO Disease Outbreak News (listed for reference)
  • International Health Regulations (IHR) capacity and health emergency preparedness

示例地理范围

  • West Africa: 59 hexagonal cells
  • 今夜夜间灯光与停电(VIIRS 昼夜波段),NASA GIBS
08方法与局限

How it is studied.

  1. 01

    Epidemiological modelling

    Transmission models from 流行病学与公共卫生科学 explore how outbreaks could spread under different conditions.

  2. 02

    Risk assessment under uncertainty

    专家意见征询 and scenario analysis, with uncertainty expressed through 概率与统计.

  3. 03

    Preparedness assessment

    Frameworks compare detection, response and recovery capacities across 系统.

  4. 04

    局限

    Rare events give little data, models depend on assumptions about behaviour and policy, and information about deliberate threats must be handled with great care.

09方法与证据

How biological threats is modelled, measured and tested.

模型、其假设、数据和不确定性,以科学家或工程师会核查的形式呈现。结构遵循已发表的方法。所取数值仅为示意,不是研究发现。

不确定性区间

How far the outlook for biological threats could spread, shown as ranges rather than a single line.

现在+5+10+15+20+25+30 y高低很可能区间可能区间
中心估计值
集合的中位数
范围
IPCC 校准用语中的“可能”和“很可能”
集合
明示成员、情景和初始条件
配合阅读
结果对每项输入的敏感性
示意性的指数尺度集合离散度;形式遵循 IPCC 不确定性指南。并非预测。
FAIR 指导原则 · GO FAIR 和 FORCE11W3C PROV · 万维网联盟关于一致处理不确定性的指南 · IPCCCEOS 分析就绪数据 · 地球观测卫星委员会
10决定

What it informs and who decides.

This evidence informs preparedness planning, surveillance investment, research oversight and international cooperation. Health agencies, governments and international health bodies decide under their own mandates and instruments. Governance dialogue is convened by 全球风险论坛(Global Risks Forum,GRF)的卫生与生物安全治理, and a biosecurity readiness drill is the platform’s planned 宇宙 theme. Related topics are "同一健康"影响, laboratory biosafety and biosecurity and dual use and ethics; methods sit on epidemiology and public health science and probability and statistics.

Published analysis on this topic is designed to carry a named subject reviewer, its references and the views of independent specialists, including biosafety professionals and those who disagree.

12问题

问题与解答。

Why consider natural, accidental and deliberate threats together?
Because their consequences, and many of the capacities that reduce them, are similar regardless of origin.
Does the platform assess specific agents or actors?
No. It works at the level of systems and governance, without information that could increase capacity for harm.
Can biological risk be measured precisely?
No. Assessments carry wide uncertainty, which published work states openly.
由谁审查该主题的覆盖范围?
Published analysis is designed to be reviewed by a named subject reviewer with relevant expertise, to cite its references and to include independent specialist voices. Where specialists disagree, the disagreement is reported rather than resolved by omission.
报告贡献

从本页贡献证据。

报告 is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

GCRI生物技术与生物安全指数级技术证据简报
生物技术与生物安全

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