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GCRI · Biotechnology and Biosecurity

Biological threats

Biological threats include naturally emerging diseases, accidental releases from laboratories or facilities, and deliberate misuse. Each has different origins but similar consequences once an agent spreads. This topic, studied at Biotechnology and Biosecurity, a platform of The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), examines how biological risks arise, how they are assessed and how preparedness reduces their consequences. It works at the level of systems and governance, never technical detail.

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01Contents

Biological threats in six parts.

In this dossier6 parts
  1. 01Core questionsWhat experts ask
  2. 02Across the domainsBiological threats reach every domain, from farms to hospitals
  3. 03MechanismsDrivers and dynamics
  4. 04Methods and limitsHow it is studied
  5. 05DecisionsWhat it informs and who decides
  6. 06SourcesWhere this page’s references lead
02Core questions

What experts ask.

  • How is the overall level of biological risk assessed when events are rare and uncertain?
  • What drives the emergence of new infectious diseases?
  • How can accidental releases be reduced without halting essential research?
  • How do detection, attribution and response capacities interact?
  • Which preparedness investments reduce consequences across many kinds of threat?
03Geography

Environmental exposure in West Africa.

Daytime surface heat, population density and haze over West Africa, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 3

Environmental exposure, for this page

About this layer
Evidence
Observed (persistent cloud still leaves gaps)
Source
VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
8-day; Satellite 8-day composite; persistent cloud still leaves gaps
Newest at build
2026-09-14
Resolution
about 1 km grid
Uncertainty
Satellite skin temperature of the ground over the 8 days ending on the date shown, a heat exposure indicator; not air temperature, heat index or a heat warning.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Estimated
Source
Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
Provider
NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
Licence
CC BY 4.0
Vintage
null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
Resolution
about 1 km grid
Uncertainty
Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed (clouds leave gaps)
Source
VIIRS NOAA-20 Deep Blue AOD (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite retrieval; clouds leave gaps
Newest at build
2026-10-14
Resolution
about 2 km grid
Uncertainty
Satellite measure of haze, smoke and dust through the whole air column on the day shown; an exposure indicator, not ground-level PM2.5, an air quality index or a health warning.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed (clouds leave gaps)
Source
MODIS Terra NDVI (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite index; clouds leave gaps
Newest at build
2026-10-13
Resolution
about 250 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite greenness index over the 8 days to the date shown; an indicator of crop and pasture condition, not a yield estimate or a food security warning.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed (clouds leave gaps)
Source
OMI Aura (NASA GES DISC)
Provider
NASA GES DISC
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite retrieval; clouds leave gaps
Newest at build
2026-10-10
Resolution
about 2 km grid
Uncertainty
Satellite column of nitrogen dioxide in the lower atmosphere on the day shown, mostly from combustion; not a ground-level concentration or a health warning.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed
Source
VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite image
Newest at build
2026-10-14
Resolution
about 250 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

Environmental exposure, framed on West Africa.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · ESA Copernicus Sentinel-5P TROPOMI · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERTSources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
  • MODIS and VIIRS atmosphere products, NASA LANCE and LAADS DAAC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • OMI nitrogen dioxide (Aura) and OMPS aerosol index (Suomi NPP), NASA; distributed by the NASA GES DISC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
  • Observed (EO): ESA Copernicus Sentinel-5P TROPOMI (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • Air quality forecast, 5 days, PM2.5 (CAMS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service information 2026.
  • Past year, daily temperature (ERA5 via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026.
  • Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
  • Optional layers (14 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Aerosol optical depth, daily: VIIRS NOAA-20 Deep Blue AOD, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Vegetation greenness (NDVI), rolling 8 days: MODIS Terra NDVI, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Nitrogen dioxide, lower atmosphere column: OMI Aura, NASA GES DISC · 10 Oct 2026
  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026

04Across the domains

Biological threats reach every domain, from farms to hospitals.

Preparedness studies are designed for the Scenario and Stress-Test series, without any detail that could enable misuse. The Biological Weapons Convention prohibits biological weapons; GCRI’s work here is defensive and preparatory only.

  • Preparedness evaluations.
  • Policy analyses of biosecurity governance.
05Monitor

Oversight and capacity register.

The screen a team would use to follow this subject: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.

Oversight and capacity register

Biological threats · National committee · Review year 1

  • Institutions with a committee, %
    86Watch
  • Staff trained, %
    67Normal
  • Reviews completed
    50this year
  • Incident reports filed
    3Info
Capacity and oversight onlyGCRI · Biotechnology and Biosecurity

Institutional oversight

Institution AActiveQ387Current
Research campusActiveQ387Audit due
Biomanufacturing siteFormingnone60Support
Diagnostic networkActiveQ391Current

Scope note

Covers
governance, training, review capacity
Excludes
technical methods and agents
Authority
national oversight body
Label
SURVEY
Oversight and capacity register: the screen’s structure, terms and states for Biological threats.Example names and illustrative values; a design, not a record or a live system.
06Mechanisms

Drivers and dynamics.

Natural emergence is driven by contact between people, animals and environments: land-use change, wildlife trade, intensive livestock production and travel all increase opportunities for pathogens to cross between species and spread. Accidental releases arise from failures of containment, procedure or equipment, and from human error. Deliberate threats depend on intent and capability, both of which are shaped by access to materials, knowledge and equipment.

Consequences depend heavily on preparedness: surveillance that detects events early, laboratory capacity to identify agents, public health systems able to respond, and supplies of countermeasures. Many of these capacities protect against all kinds of biological threat, regardless of origin. The platform works at the level of governance, evaluation and risk methods. It publishes no protocols, techniques or information that would increase anyone’s capacity to cause harm.

07Twin and cascade simulator

Model biological threats as a system. Run the cascade.

Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile International Health Regulations alignment: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.

Controls

  • NS-3 Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)
  • NS-10 Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)
  • NS-11 Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)
  • NRS-H83 Hazard family: Health system capacity failure (NHS-1 health.system)
  • NRS-H41 Hazard family: Animal-to-human spillover (NHS-1 health.zoonotic)
  • NRS-H112 Hazard family: Governance and institutional failure (NHS-1 soc.governance)
  • NRS-H120 Hazard family: Structural fragility of interconnected systems (NHS-1 sys.fragility)
  • NRS-H29 Hazard family: Air pollution episodes (NHS-1 poll.air-quality)
  • NRS-H40 Hazard family: Blood-borne and sexually transmitted infection (NHS-1 health.bloodborne)

Observation

  • WHO Global Health Observatory OData API (including SPAR capacity scores) (listed for reference)
  • e-SPAR public portal (listed for reference)
  • WHO Disease Outbreak News (listed for reference)
  • International Health Regulations (IHR) capacity and health emergency preparedness

Example geography

  • West Africa: 59 hexagonal cells
  • Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
08Methods and limits

How it is studied.

  1. 01

    Epidemiological modelling

    Transmission models from epidemiology and public health science explore how outbreaks could spread under different conditions.

  2. 02

    Risk assessment under uncertainty

    Expert elicitation and scenario analysis, with uncertainty expressed through probability and statistics.

  3. 03

    Preparedness assessment

    Frameworks compare detection, response and recovery capacities across systems.

  4. 04

    Limits

    Rare events give little data, models depend on assumptions about behaviour and policy, and information about deliberate threats must be handled with great care.

09Methods and evidence

How biological threats is modelled, measured and tested.

The model, its assumptions, its data and its uncertainty, in the form a scientist or engineer would check. Structures follow published methods. The values drawn are illustrative, not findings.

Uncertainty bands

How far the outlook for biological threats could spread, shown as ranges rather than a single line.

Now+5+10+15+20+25+30 yhighlowvery likely rangelikely range
Central estimate
median of the ensemble
Ranges
likely and very likely, in IPCC calibrated language
Ensemble
members, scenarios and initial conditions stated
Read with
the sensitivity of the result to each input
Illustrative ensemble spread on an index scale; the form follows IPCC uncertainty guidance. Not a projection.
FAIR guiding principles · GO FAIR and FORCE11W3C PROV · World Wide Web ConsortiumGuidance on consistent treatment of uncertainties · IPCCCEOS Analysis Ready Data · Committee on Earth Observation Satellites
10Decisions

What it informs and who decides.

This evidence informs preparedness planning, surveillance investment, research oversight and international cooperation. Health agencies, governments and international health bodies decide under their own mandates and instruments. Governance dialogue is convened by Health and Biosecurity Governance at The Global Risks Forum (GRF), and a biosecurity readiness drill is the platform’s planned Universe theme. Related topics are One Health impacts, laboratory biosafety and biosecurity and dual use and ethics; methods sit on epidemiology and public health science and probability and statistics.

Published analysis on this topic is designed to carry a named subject reviewer, its references and the views of independent specialists, including biosafety professionals and those who disagree.

11Sources

Where this page’s references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

12Questions

Questions and answers.

Why consider natural, accidental and deliberate threats together?
Because their consequences, and many of the capacities that reduce them, are similar regardless of origin.
Does the platform assess specific agents or actors?
No. It works at the level of systems and governance, without information that could increase capacity for harm.
Can biological risk be measured precisely?
No. Assessments carry wide uncertainty, which published work states openly.
Who reviews coverage of this topic?
Published analysis is designed to be reviewed by a named subject reviewer with relevant expertise, to cite its references and to include independent specialist voices. Where specialists disagree, the disagreement is reported rather than resolved by omission.
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