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GCRI · 生物技术与生物安全

诊断与治疗

Diagnostics detect disease; therapeutics and vaccines prevent or treat it. Biotechnology has transformed both, from molecular tests to biologic medicines and platform vaccines. This topic, studied at Biotechnology and Biosecurity, a platform of The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), examines how health innovations are evaluated, how evidence of performance is generated and judged, and how access and supply shape their value in practice. It is research, not clinical guidance.

01核心问题

专家提出的问题。

  • How is the accuracy of a diagnostic test established, and how does it vary by setting?
  • How do clinical trials balance speed and reliability, especially in emergencies?
  • How do platform technologies change the time needed to develop countermeasures?
  • What determines whether innovations reach the people who need them?
  • How is safety monitored once products are in wide use?
02地理

西非的环境暴露。

西非的白天地表热量、人口密度和霾,来自 NASA GIBS。每个图层均标有各自日期。

交互式地图需要JavaScript;图层列表和来源见下文。

图层 3

本页的环境暴露

关于本图层
证据
观测(持续云层仍会造成缺口)
来源
VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3,8 天(NASA LANCE)
提供方
NASA LANCE
许可协议
NASA 开放数据
年份版本
8 天;卫星 8 天合成;持续云层仍会造成缺口
构建时的最新内容
2026-09-14
处理结果
约 1 公里网格
不确定性
截至所示日期的 8 天内地表的卫星皮肤温度,是高温风险暴露指标;不是气温、热指数,也不是高温预警。
经由以下途径到达
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov,仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
证据
估计值
来源
世界网格化人口 v4.11(NASA SEDAC(哥伦比亚大学 CIESIN))
提供方
NASA SEDAC(哥伦比亚大学 CIESIN)
许可协议
CC BY 4.0
年份版本
null;基于人口普查的估算,静态(2020)
处理结果
约 1 公里网格
不确定性
基于人口普查的 2020 年每平方公里人口估算,作为风险暴露背景展示;不是受任何危害影响的人数。
经由以下途径到达
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov,仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
证据
观测(云层造成缺口)
来源
VIIRS NOAA-20 Deep Blue AOD(NASA LANCE)
提供方
NASA LANCE
许可协议
NASA 开放数据
年份版本
每日;卫星反演;云层造成缺口
构建时的最新内容
2026-10-14
处理结果
约 2 公里网格
不确定性
对所示日期整个气柱中霾、烟和沙尘的卫星测量;是风险暴露指标,不是地面 PM2.5、空气质量指数,也不是健康预警。
经由以下途径到达
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov,仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
证据
观测(云层造成缺口)
来源
MODIS Terra NDVI(NASA LANCE)
提供方
NASA LANCE
许可协议
NASA 开放数据
年份版本
每日;卫星指数;云层造成缺口
构建时的最新内容
2026-10-13
处理结果
约 250 米网格
不确定性
截至所示日期 8 天的卫星绿度指数;是作物和牧草状况的指标,不是产量估算,也不是粮食安全预警。
经由以下途径到达
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov,仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
证据
观测(云层造成缺口)
来源
OMI Aura(NASA GES DISC)
提供方
NASA GES DISC
许可协议
NASA 开放数据
年份版本
每日;卫星反演;云层造成缺口
构建时的最新内容
2026-10-10
处理结果
约 2 公里网格
不确定性
所示日期低层大气二氧化氮的卫星柱含量,主要来自燃烧;不是地面浓度,也不是健康预警。
经由以下途径到达
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov,仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
证据
观测
来源
VIIRS NOAA-20 校正反射率(NASA LANCE)
提供方
NASA LANCE
许可协议
NASA 开放数据
年份版本
每日;卫星图像
构建时的最新内容
2026-10-14
处理结果
约 250 米网格
不确定性
卫星图像。卫星或模型栅格数据,按提供方发布的原样呈现。云层、条带缺口和反演误差会造成缺口和噪声;数值是指标,而非某地的测量值。
经由以下途径到达
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov,仅在您允许实时地图后访问

最新可用

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap贡献者 (ODbL) · Natural Earth

正在加载最新的NASA影像。

拖动以移动。按住 Ctrl 或 ⌘ 并滚动、双指缩放或使用按钮缩放;悬停可查看指针下的数值;重置可返回该区域。

环境风险暴露,以西非为取景。NASA 发布的卫星和模型产品,各带自己的日期。它们是指标,而非对任何地点的评估。

数据:NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap 贡献者 · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · ESA Copernicus Sentinel-5P TROPOMI · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT来源与许可

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA 开放数据
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA 开放数据
  • VIIRS 近实时产品(洪水、地表温度、积雪覆盖、校正反射率),NASA LANCE;影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。 NASA 开放数据
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). 采用 CC BY 4.0 许可。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。 doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
  • MODIS 和 VIIRS 大气产品,NASA LANCE 和 LAADS DAAC;影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。 NASA 开放数据
  • MODIS 陆地产品(植被指数、总初级生产力、土地覆盖),NASA LP DAAC 和 LANCE;影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。 NASA 开放数据
  • OMI 二氧化氮(Aura)和 OMPS 气溶胶指数(Suomi NPP),NASA;由 NASA GES DISC 分发;影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。 NASA 开放数据
  • ASTER GDEM 是 METI 和 NASA 的产品(ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003,NASA LP DAAC);影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。引用格式:NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA 开放数据
  • 使用 Natural Earth 制作。免费矢量和栅格地图数据,见 naturalearthdata.com。 公有领域
  • © OpenStreetMap 贡献者(ODbL),经由 NASA GIBS(海岸线、边界、道路和地名)。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。 ODbL
  • Blue Marble,NASA Earth Observatory;影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘;显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均(经修改)。 NASA 开放数据
  • 地球仪和平面地图上的背景信息:海岸线、边界、道路和地名来自 NASA GIBS 参考图层(OpenStreetMap 数据,ODbL,© OpenStreetMap contributors);Blue Marble 影像可作为可选底图;3D 地形和高程读数来自 ASTER GDEM 高程色彩指数(5 m 至 200 m 分级,为便于辨识而作了夸张处理)。边界按已发布的样式绘制,不代表对任何领土的立场。
  • 实时事件:NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker(EONET);事件仅供参考,并保留其原始来源链接。
  • Observed (EO): ESA Copernicus Sentinel-5P TROPOMI (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • 空气质量预报,5 天,PM2.5(CAMS,经由 Open-Meteo):包含经修改的 Copernicus 大气监测服务 2026 年信息。
  • 过去一年的每日气温(ERA5,经由 Open-Meteo):包含经修改的 Copernicus 气候变化服务 2026 年信息。
  • 天气数据来自 Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), 依据 CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). 授权。
  • 可选图层(图层列表中有 14 个来源:实时、预报、观测和背景)在开启时会在地图上和此处显示其提供方署名;预报是模型输出,派生指数是估计值。

图层与日期

  • 地表温度,日间,8 天合成:VIIRS NOAA-20 3 级产品,8 天,NASA LANCE · 2026年9月14日
  • 人口密度,2020 年:人口:哥伦比亚大学 CIESIN,世界网格化人口 v4.11(2018),NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · 静态
  • 气溶胶光学厚度,每日:VIIRS NOAA-20 Deep Blue AOD,NASA LANCE · 2026年10月13日
  • 植被绿度(NDVI),滚动 8 天:MODIS Terra NDVI,NASA LANCE · 2026年10月13日
  • 二氧化氮,低层大气柱:OMI Aura,NASA GES DISC · 2026年10月10日
  • 真彩色:VIIRS NOAA-20 校正反射率,NASA LANCE · 2026年10月13日

03跨领域

Countermeasures protect health and depend on other domains.

Countermeasure studies are designed for the 战略系统系列. The WHO R&D Blueprint and the Essential Medicines List (24th list, 2025) frame priorities; GCRI approves no product.

  • Access and supply studies.
  • Evaluations of diagnostic deployment.
04监测

监督与能力登记册。

团队跟踪该主题时会使用的界面:其指标、状态与决策。名称为示例,数值仅作示意。

监督与能力登记册

Diagnostics and therapeutics · National committee · Review year 3

  • 设有委员会的机构,%
    83关注
  • 已培训员工,%
    87正常
  • 已完成审查
    40今年
  • 已提交的事件报告
    5信息
仅限能力建设与监督GCRI · 生物技术与生物安全

机构监督

A 机构活跃Q284当前
研究园区活跃Q161审计到期
生物制造场所组建中无67支持
诊断网络活跃Q388当前

范围说明

涵盖
治理、培训、审查能力
不包括
技术方法与智能体
权限
国家监督机构
标签
SURVEY
Oversight and capacity register: the screen’s structure, terms and states for Diagnostics and therapeutics.示例名称和示意数值;是设计方案,并非记录或实时系统。
05机制

驱动因素与动态。

A diagnostic test’s usefulness depends on its sensitivity and specificity and on how common the condition is in the population tested, so the same test can perform differently in different settings. Therapeutics and vaccines are evaluated through staged trials, with regulators weighing evidence of benefit against risk. Emergency procedures can accelerate this process, at the cost of more uncertainty at the time of decision.

Platform technologies, which can be adapted to new targets, have shortened development times for some countermeasures. Yet value in practice depends on manufacturing, distribution, affordability and trust. Surveillance after approval detects rare adverse effects that trials are too small to find. Population health questions are studied at Health Nexus.

06孪生与级联模拟器

Model diagnostics and therapeutics as a system. Run the cascade.

Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile 生物危害标准: the hazards it names, the 系统 and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.

控制措施

  • NS-0 章程与原则
  • NS-3 风险记录 UNI(语法、旧编码对照、分配机构)
  • NS-11 验证与监测(证据、证明、零信任符合性观测)
  • NRS-H41 Hazard family: Animal-to-human spillover (NHS-1 health.zoonotic)
  • NRS-H44 危害类别:植物病害与虫害(NHS-1 health.plant-health)
  • NRS-H43 危害族:畜牧业和水产养殖动物疫病(NHS-1 health.animal-health)
  • NRS-H35 危害类别:空气传播和呼吸道感染(NHS-1 health.respiratory)
  • NRS-H40 危害类别:血源性和性传播感染(NHS-1 health.bloodborne)
  • NRS-H60 危害类别:供应链与流动中断(NHS-1 sys.supply-chain)

观测

  • WHO Disease Outbreak News (listed for reference)
  • WAHIS animal health events (listed for reference)
  • GBIF occurrence API and downloads (listed for reference)
  • 《国际卫生条例》 capacity and health emergency preparedness
  • Proportion of countries adopting relevant national legislation and adequately resourcing the prevention or control of invasive alien species

示例地理范围

  • West Africa: 59 hexagonal cells
  • 今夜夜间灯光与停电(VIIRS 昼夜波段),NASA GIBS
07方法与局限

How it is studied.

  1. 01

    证据综合

    Systematic reviews and meta-analyses pool results across studies, with attention to bias.

  2. 02

    Statistical evaluation

    Methods from 概率与统计 assess test accuracy, trial design and uncertainty.

  3. 03

    Health technology assessment

    Frameworks compare benefits, risks and costs, drawing on 流行病学与公共卫生科学.

  4. 04

    局限

    Trials may not represent all populations, published evidence can be biased toward positive results, and performance in practice often differs from performance in trials.

08方法与证据

How diagnostics and therapeutics is modelled, measured and tested.

模型、其假设、数据和不确定性,以科学家或工程师会核查的形式呈现。结构遵循已发表的方法。所取数值仅为示意,不是研究发现。

系统模型

The couplings between the systems in diagnostics and therapeutics: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.

++−+卫生食品社区经济R 增强B 平衡
Causal loop diagram from the page’s systems; signs show the direction of influence. Illustrative structure for a system dynamics or network model, not estimated couplings.
FAIR 指导原则 · GO FAIR 和 FORCE11W3C PROV · 万维网联盟关于一致处理不确定性的指南 · IPCCCEOS 分析就绪数据 · 地球观测卫星委员会
09决定

What it informs and who decides.

This evidence informs regulatory decisions, procurement and stockpiling, health technology assessment and preparedness planning. Regulators, health agencies and clinicians decide; GCRI is not a health-service provider or clinical authority. The insurance-sector reading of health innovation and pandemic risk is built by Insurance Nexus at The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Related topics are biomanufacturing, biological threats and 同一健康 impacts; methods sit on epidemiology and public health science and probability and statistics.

Published analysis on this topic is designed to carry a named subject reviewer, its references and the views of independent specialists, including biosafety professionals and those who disagree.

10来源

Where this page’s references lead.

阅读本页时所对照的机构和文件。状态和版本会变化;每个链接都指向发布机构。

11问题

问题与解答。

Can the platform tell me which test or treatment to use?
No. It does not provide clinical advice. Health professionals and regulators make those decisions.
Why can an accurate test give misleading results?
Because a test’s predictive value depends on how common the condition is in the people tested, not only on its accuracy.
Are emergency approvals less reliable?
They are made with less evidence at the time of decision, so monitoring after approval matters more.
由谁审查该主题的覆盖范围?
Published analysis is designed to be reviewed by a named subject reviewer with relevant expertise, to cite its references and to include independent specialist voices. Where specialists disagree, the disagreement is reported rather than resolved by omission.
报告贡献

从本页贡献证据。

报告 is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

GCRI生物技术与生物安全指数级技术证据简报
生物技术与生物安全

带来一种方法、一个数据集或一个问题。

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