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GCRI · اقلیم و مخاطره‌ها

Reviewed models and scenarios

Model descriptions for Climate and Hazards are published here once reviewed, with their assumptions, evidence and validation. They describe models; they are not live simulations.

02What is shown

Released, referenced and rights-cleared.

  • Time and space reference for every view.
  • Sources and licence.
  • Uncertainty and known limits.
  • Version and date of release.
03Model classes

The kinds of model hazard work relies on.

Model classOpen examplesQuestion it answersاعتبارسنجی
Global climate modelsCMIP ensemblesLarge-scale تغییر اقلیمHistorical simulation, process diagnostics
Regional climate modelsCORDEX ensemblesRegional detailObserved regional climate
Probabilistic seismic hazardOpenQuakeGround-shaking probabilitiesObserved ground motions
Event attributionMethods used in attribution studiesChange in likelihood of an observed eventModel evaluation for the event type
04فرایند

نحوهٔ اجرای فرایند.

Process explorer · Process

Reviewed models and scenarios: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability

10 steps4 مرحله

فرایند

Reviewed models and scenarios: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability

In IPCC AR6 Working Group II, climate risk results from interactions between hazards and a system’s exposure and vulnerability, and responses can add risk.

  1. 01 Drivers

    1. 01مخاطرهDataset · Hydrological serviceThe potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend that may harm people, property, services or ecosystems.
    2. 02مواجههDataset · Hydrological serviceThe presence of people, livelihoods, species, ecosystems, infrastructure or assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected.
    3. 03حساسیتDataset · Hydrological serviceThe degree to which a system or species is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or change.
    4. 04Capacity to cope and adaptDataset · Hydrological serviceThe ability of سامانه‌ها, institutions, humans and other organisms to adjust to damage, take opportunities or respond to consequences.
  2. 02 Assessment

    1. 05Risk from responsesComponent · Hydrological serviceRisks from climate responses arise when responses miss their objectives, or from trade-offs or negative side effects.
    2. 06آسیب‌پذیریComponent · Hydrological serviceThe propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. It includes sensitivity to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.
    3. 07ریسکModel · Climate and HazardsRisk results from dynamic interactions between hazards and the system’s exposure and vulnerability. Each may be uncertain and change.
  3. 03 Response

    1. 08Risk management and responseStep · Hydrological serviceRisk management is plans, actions, strategies or policies that reduce the likelihood or size of adverse consequences.
    2. 09ریسک باقیماندهRecord · Hydrological serviceThe climate impact risk that remains after adaptation and mitigation efforts. Adaptation can redistribute risk between areas and groups.
  4. 04 Decision

    1. 10Decision by the responsible partyDecision · Hydrological serviceThe framing names no single decision maker. Decisions on responses rest with the responsible party under its own rules.

Outline of an external standard or method, from its public sources. It describes what the framework says, not a record of any run. It does not show that Nexus or any partner performs, certifies or approves a step. A gate is a step of the method, never a Nexus approval.

05وضعیت

Releases appear as they are reviewed.

Analysis runs in ⁨Foundry⁩; reviewed releases are listed here.

06منابع

Where this page’s references lead.

نهادها و اسنادی که این صفحه بر پایهٔ آن‌ها خوانده می‌شود. وضعیت و ویراست‌ها تغییر می‌کنند؛ هر پیوند به نهاد صادرکننده می‌رود.

07پرسش‌ها

پرسش و پاسخ.

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گزارش‌هامشارکت

شواهد را از همین صفحه ارسال کنید.

گزارش‌ها is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

GCRIاقلیم و مخاطراتریسک و تاب‌آوری سامانه‌های جهانیسیگنال رصدخانهسناریو و آزمون تنش
اقلیم و مخاطرات

یک روش، یک مجموعه‌داده یا یک پرسش بیاورید.

اطلاعات و درخواست‌ها امروز باز است. هر درخواست یک شمارهٔ پیگیری می‌گیرد و گام بعدی را مشخص می‌کند؛ درخواست‌های عضویت، پرداخت‌ها، تخصیص رایانش و ثبت‌نام‌ها تنها زمانی باز می‌شوند که تیم، شرایط و ظرفیت داوری آن‌ها فراهم باشد.