GCRI · Climate and Hazards
Reviewed models and scenarios
Model descriptions for Climate and Hazards are published here once reviewed, with their assumptions, evidence and validation. They describe models; they are not live simulations.
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Released, referenced and rights-cleared.
- Time and space reference for every view.
- Sources and licence.
- Uncertainty and known limits.
- Version and date of release.
The kinds of model hazard work relies on.
| Model class | Open examples | Question it answers | Validation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global climate models | CMIP ensembles | Large-scale climate change | Historical simulation, process diagnostics |
| Regional climate models | CORDEX ensembles | Regional detail | Observed regional climate |
| Probabilistic seismic hazard | OpenQuake | Ground-shaking probabilities | Observed ground motions |
| Event attribution | Methods used in attribution studies | Change in likelihood of an observed event | Model evaluation for the event type |
How the process runs.
Process explorer · Process
Reviewed models and scenarios: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability
10 steps·4 stages
Process
Reviewed models and scenarios: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability
In IPCC AR6 Working Group II, climate risk results from interactions between hazards and a system’s exposure and vulnerability, and responses can add risk.
01 Drivers
- 01HazardDataset · Hydrological serviceThe potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend that may harm people, property, services or ecosystems.
- 02ExposureDataset · Hydrological serviceThe presence of people, livelihoods, species, ecosystems, infrastructure or assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected.
- 03SensitivityDataset · Hydrological serviceThe degree to which a system or species is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or change.
- 04Capacity to cope and adaptDataset · Hydrological serviceThe ability of systems, institutions, humans and other organisms to adjust to damage, take opportunities or respond to consequences.
02 Assessment
- 05Risk from responsesComponent · Hydrological serviceRisks from climate responses arise when responses miss their objectives, or from trade-offs or negative side effects.
- 06VulnerabilityComponent · Hydrological serviceThe propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. It includes sensitivity to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.
- 07RiskModel · Climate and HazardsRisk results from dynamic interactions between hazards and the system’s exposure and vulnerability. Each may be uncertain and change.
03 Response
- 08Risk management and responseStep · Hydrological serviceRisk management is plans, actions, strategies or policies that reduce the likelihood or size of adverse consequences.
- 09Residual riskRecord · Hydrological serviceThe climate impact risk that remains after adaptation and mitigation efforts. Adaptation can redistribute risk between areas and groups.
04 Decision
- 10Decision by the responsible partyDecision · Hydrological serviceThe framing names no single decision maker. Decisions on responses rest with the responsible party under its own rules.
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