GCRI · Programmes
Spatial intelligenceObservations, models and their uncertainty in one view
Early warning capability
Early warning saves lives only when forecasts, thresholds, institutions and actions work together under pressure. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) strengthens that chain with forecast verification, warning-support information, preparedness analysis and controlled exercises. It issues no warnings. Warnings and dispatch stay with authorized national services. Part of GCRI programmes.
The working screen for early warning capability.
Programme board
Country programme A · Early warning capability · Cycle 1 of 4 · Example interface, not a record
- Workstreams active8Active
- Milestones due this quarter3Watch
- Decisions pending with owners4Watch
- Open risks7
Workstreams
by stage
Gates
- Requestowner named
- Scoping noteboundary
- Qualifiedinputs
- BuildFoundry
- Testcontrolled
- Publishwith limits
- Decisionauthority
GCRI · Programme boardProgramme board, in outline: domain structure with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record.
Where GCRI contributes to the warning chain.
| Link in the chain | Contribution | Stays with |
|---|---|---|
| Forecast fitness | Verification of forecasts against observations, with uncertainty | The forecasting service |
| Thresholds and triggers | Evaluation of trigger definitions and their performance | The authority that sets them |
| Warning support | Information that helps a service prepare a warning | The authorized issuer |
| Preparedness | Gap analysis of readiness, logistics and roles | The responsible agencies |
| Exercises | Controlled exercises with independent observation | The exercise owner |
Scoping to review.
Fig.A programme from scoping to the owner's decision. Design, not a record.
Hazards now worldwide.
Flood water, active fires, rain and true-colour imagery across the world, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 4
Hazards now, for this page
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Hazards now, framed on World. Layers as NASA publishes them, each with its own date.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological Survey · NASA HLS S30Sources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- GPM IMERG precipitation, NASA Precipitation Processing System; distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Observed (EO): NASA HLS S30 (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (20 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
- Active fires and thermal anomalies, last day: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
- Precipitation rate, daily mean: GPM IMERG, NASA GES DISC · 12 Oct 2026
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
Simulation is never confused with reality.
- A master scenario events list with exercise controllers and simulation cells.
- Independent evaluators who test objectives and observable performance, not attendance.
- Time control, safety holds and an explicit real-world-emergency override.
- Simulated warnings never reach live audiences, and real infrastructure is never an unapproved target.
- Dissent and adverse findings are preserved in the after-action record.
Model early warning capability as a system. Run the cascade.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Early warning and anticipatory action: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification.
Hazards
- Ice-jam flood
- Tropical cyclone
- Heatwave
- HIV epidemic
- Storm surge (set off downstream)
- Intense rainfall (set off downstream)
- River flood (set off downstream)
- Flash flood (set off downstream)
- Dangerous surf (set off downstream)
- Widespread power outage (set off downstream)
- Mass displacement (set off downstream)
- Coastal flood (set off downstream)
- Extreme fire weather (set off downstream)
- Wildfire (set off downstream)
- Heat-driven grid stress (set off downstream)
- Agricultural drought (set off downstream)
- Flash drought (set off downstream)
- Snow drought (set off downstream)
Systems and couplings
Controls
NS-0Constitution and principlesNS-3Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)NS-9Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)NS-10Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)NS-11Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)NRS-C7Early warning, triggers and anticipatory actionNRS-S9System profile: NXS-AAP (Anticipatory action and triggers)NRS-H117Hazard family: Social cohesion and atrocity risk (NHS-1 soc.cohesion)NRS-H83Hazard family: Health system capacity failure (NHS-1 health.system)NRS-H98Hazard family: Agentic AI acting at scale (NHS-1 tech.ai-agentic)NRS-H22Hazard family: Solar-terrestrial storms (NHS-1 space.solar-storm)
Observation
- NWS API active alerts (CAP 1.2 as GeoJSON) (listed for reference)
- GloFAS global flood forecasts and reanalysis (listed for reference)
- ECMWF open data (IFS and AIFS real-time forecasts) (listed for reference)
- CHIRPS quasi-global gridded precipitation (listed for reference)
- Number of countries that have multi-hazard early warning systems
- Number of countries that have multi-hazard monitoring and forecasting systems
- Number of people per 100,000 covered by early warning information through local governments or national dissemination mechanisms
- Number of countries with accessible, understandable, usable and relevant disaster risk information and assessment
Example geography
- Southeast Asia: 51 H3 hexagons at resolution 2
- Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
- Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
- Surface air temperature, daytime (AIRS), NASA GIBS
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
What a preparedness engagement produces.
- A preparedness gap analysis
- A scenario package
- Warning and trigger verification
- Exercise observations and an improvement plan
- Handoffs to the competent authorities
What is open today.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. Disaster-management authorities, hydrometeorological services and humanitarian organizations can write to programmes@therisk.global. The research is on Early warning research. The Global Risk Forum (GRF) examines the governance of disasters on Disaster and crisis governance. Nexus is not an emergency service. In immediate danger, contact your local emergency services.
Questions and answers.
Does GCRI issue warnings?
Can a trigger evaluated here release funds automatically?
Does GCRI work with national hydrometeorological services?
Who can request an exercise?
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The same subject across the Consortium.
- GRFglobalriskforum.comDisaster and Crisis GovernanceMandates, commitments and accountability
- GRAglobalriskalliance.comReinsurance and CatastropheExposure, loss and capital
- Nexus Standardsnexustandards.comEarly Warning and Anticipatory ActionStandards that apply
- Risk Academyrisksacademy.comEarly warning and anticipatory actionWhere it is taught
- Nexus Reportstherisk.globalDisaster Resilience and Recovery in Nexus ReportsWhere it is reported
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