GCRI · Health Nexus
Reviewed models and scenarios
Model descriptions for Health Nexus are published here once reviewed, with their assumptions, evidence and validation. They describe models; they are not live simulations.
Reviewed models and scenarios in four parts.
Released, referenced and rights-cleared.
- Time and space reference for every view.
- Sources and licence.
- Uncertainty and known limits.
- Version and date of release.
The kinds of model health work relies on.
| Model class | Open examples | Question it answers | Validation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compartmental transmission models | SEIR-type models, open epidemic modelling packages | Course of an outbreak under interventions | Fit to reported data; comparison of ensembles |
| Agent-based epidemic models | Open agent-based platforms | Effects of contact structure and targeted measures | Pattern validation against observed outbreaks |
| Health-system capacity models | Bed and staff demand models | When and where capacity is exceeded | Back-testing against past surges |
| Supply-chain models | Network models of medical supply | Concentration and substitution | Reconstruction of past shortages |
Model outputs for a live event are scenarios with stated assumptions; they are not public health advice.
How the process runs.
Process
Reviewed models and scenarios: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability
In IPCC AR6 Working Group II, climate risk results from interactions between hazards and a system’s exposure and vulnerability, and responses can add risk.
01 Drivers
- 01HazardDataset · National IHR focal pointThe potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend that may harm people, property, services or ecosystems.
- 02ExposureDataset · National IHR focal pointThe presence of people, livelihoods, species, ecosystems, infrastructure or assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected.
- 03SensitivityDataset · National IHR focal pointThe degree to which a system or species is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or change.
- 04Capacity to cope and adaptDataset · National IHR focal pointThe ability of systems, institutions, humans and other organisms to adjust to damage, take opportunities or respond to consequences.
02 Assessment
- 05Risk from responsesComponent · National IHR focal pointRisks from climate responses arise when responses miss their objectives, or from trade-offs or negative side effects.
- 06VulnerabilityComponent · National IHR focal pointThe propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. It includes sensitivity to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.
- 07RiskModel · Health NexusRisk results from dynamic interactions between hazards and the system’s exposure and vulnerability. Each may be uncertain and change.
03 Response
- 08Risk management and responseStep · National IHR focal pointRisk management is plans, actions, strategies or policies that reduce the likelihood or size of adverse consequences.
- 09Residual riskRecord · National IHR focal pointThe climate impact risk that remains after adaptation and mitigation efforts. Adaptation can redistribute risk between areas and groups.
04 Decision
- 10Decision by the responsible partyDecision · National IHR focal pointThe framing names no single decision maker. Decisions on responses rest with the responsible party under its own rules.
Outline of an external standard or method, from its public sources. It describes what the framework says, not a record of any run. It does not show that Nexus or any partner performs, certifies or approves a step. A gate is a step of the method, never a Nexus approval.
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