The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Conflict, persecution, disasters and other crises force people from their homes, within their own countries and across borders. Displacement is increasingly protracted, lasting years or decades. This page sets out how displacement happens and persists, how displaced populations and their needs are counted, and what evidence serves the governments, humanitarian agencies and host communities responding to it.
GCRI · In development · service level R0
Forced displacement is the movement of people compelled to leave their homes by conflict, persecution, violence or disasters. Most remain within their own countries, displacement is increasingly protracted, host communities in low- and middle-income countries carry much of the burden, and disasters displace people repeatedly.
For humanitarian and displacement, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on population density, true-colour imagery and land cover, framed on Latin America and the Caribbean; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.
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NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
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For humanitarian and displacement, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on population density, true-colour imagery and land cover, framed on Latin America and the Caribbean; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.
Layers and dates
The working screen behind this subject: its structure, terms and states. Names are placeholders and values illustrative.
Crisis, displacement and safeguarding. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Most people displaced by conflict and disaster remain within their own country, where they may receive less international protection than refugees.
When conflict persists or homes are destroyed, displacement lasts for years. Temporary responses then need to become long-term solutions.
Most refugees live in low- and middle-income countries near their homeland, where host communities share services and jobs.
Floods and storms displace large numbers each year, often temporarily, and some people are displaced again and again.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Refugee | A person outside their country who cannot return because of a well-founded fear of persecution, conflict or serious public disorder. |
| Internally displaced person | A person forced to flee their home who remains within their own country's borders. |
| Durable solution | Voluntary return, local integration or resettlement that ends displacement sustainably. |
Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.
| Indicator | Unit | Cadence | Source type | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Refugees and asylum-seekers | count by country of origin and asylum | biannual | UNHCR statistics | OFFICIAL |
| Internally displaced persons by conflict and violence | count | annual | IDMC estimates | ESTIMATED |
| Internal displacements by disasters | count of movements | annual | IDMC estimates | ESTIMATED |
| People in protracted refugee situations | count | annual | UNHCR statistics | OFFICIAL |
| Durable solutions achieved | count of returns, local integration and resettlement | annual | UNHCR and IOM records | OFFICIAL |
| Humanitarian funding coverage | percent of appeal requirements funded | annual | OCHA Financial Tracking Service | REPORTED |
The topic as a computational graph: named sources feed the methods, an evidence review gates the outputs, and the decisions stay with the authorities that hold them.
Fig. 02Nodes carry their type, two metric rows and a state; connectors show what feeds what; dashed frames name the owners; the timeline is the cadence. Design of the pipeline, not a record of a run.
Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.
| Source | What it gives | Licence class |
|---|---|---|
| UNHCR Refugee Data Finder | Refugees, asylum-seekers, stateless people and solutions | Public, UNHCR terms |
| Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre Global Internal Displacement Database | Conflict and disaster displacement estimates | Public, IDMC terms (to check) |
| IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix | Displaced populations, locations and needs | Public, IOM terms (to check) |
| OCHA Financial Tracking Service and Global Humanitarian Overview | Humanitarian needs and funding | Public, UN terms of use |
| Joint Data Center on Forced Displacement (World Bank and UNHCR) | Socioeconomic data on displaced people | Public, terms per dataset |
Society and Human Development prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| Who decides | The question | Evidence this page serves |
|---|---|---|
| Host governments | How to include displaced people in services and labour markets | Profiles; host community evidence |
| Humanitarian and development agencies | How to allocate support between emergency response and long-term solutions | Protracted displacement and funding evidence |
| Donors | Which responses and solutions to fund | Funding coverage and outcome evidence |
Displacement results from the interaction of hazards and threats with vulnerability and opportunity. Conflict and violence remain major drivers, and disasters displace large numbers of people each year, mostly within their own countries and often temporarily, though repeated events can make movement permanent. Slow-onset changes such as drought, land degradation and sea-level rise act through livelihoods and can lead to gradual out-migration.
Most displaced people live in towns and cities rather than camps, often in informal housing alongside host communities. Protracted displacement is common, and lack of legal status, documentation or the right to work prevents people from rebuilding. Planned relocation, where communities move away from hazardous places, raises difficult questions of consent, land, culture and livelihoods.
Host communities matter as much as displaced people. Rapid arrivals can strain water, schools, clinics and housing, and tensions arise when support appears to favour one group. Evidence on shared services and inclusive local planning shows that outcomes improve when both populations are considered together.
Tracking of movements and needs through surveys and key informants; numbers can be uncertain and contested.
Assessment of food, shelter, health and protection needs; access constraints bias coverage.
Following people over time to understand durable solutions; costly and hard to sustain.
Limits: data on displaced people are sensitive and can endanger them if misused. Counts often miss people living with families or in informal settlements, and figures for returns are especially uncertain.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.