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Chapter · Society and Human Development

Population and Demographic Futures

Population and Demographic Futures is a chapter of Society and Human Development: a specialist sub-community with its own group, editor and research agenda. Demographics within society and human development.

Publisher
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation
Field
Society and human development, Information and public trust
Status
In development
Service level
R0: information and enquiries

Learning path

Society and human development · Cohort 5

Module 2 openGCRI · Society and Human Development

Modules

  1. Foundationsconcepts
  2. Data and labelsevidence
  3. MethodsSocial and…
  4. Case studyProvince West
  5. Exercisecontrolled
  6. Crediton record

Cohorts

Cohort 63993Social protection ministryOn track
Cohort 82220Social protection ministryBehind
Cohort 53673Social protection ministryBehind

Society and Human Development · Learning pathLearning path, in outline: domain structure with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record.

01In brief

The short answer.

Population and Demographic Futures is a chapter of Society and Human Development: a specialist sub-community with its own group, editor and research agenda. Its work starts from the cornerstone topic, demographic transitions. Demographic change is the shift in a population's size, age structure and distribution through births, deaths and migration. A chapter becomes a platform of its own only by meeting the graduation rule.

02Canvas

From enquiry to contribution.

Canvas · from enquiry to contributionDesign, not a record
Population and Demographic Futures: a working group from charter to sunsetA charter sets the question and the code of conduct; members join with declared interests; a workplan produces deliverables that are reviewed and credited; the group reports and sunsets or renews. Design of the process, not a record of a run.

Fig.The path from an enquiry to a credited contribution. Design, not a record; no step creates membership.

03Geography

People and exposure in Latin America and the Caribbean.

For population and demographic futures, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on population density and true-colour imagery with true colour from NASA GIBS, framed on Latin America and the Caribbean; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 2

People and exposure, for this page

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

For population and demographic futures, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on population density and true-colour imagery with true colour from NASA GIBS, framed on Latin America and the Caribbean; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · Copernicus Sentinel-2 L2A · NASA HLS S30Sources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). CC BY 4.0
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
  • Observed (EO): Copernicus Sentinel-2 L2A (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026), Microsoft Planetary Computer
  • Observed (EO): NASA HLS S30 (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • Optional layers (35 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
  • Enhanced vegetation index, rolling 8 days: MODIS Terra EVI, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Vegetation greenness (NDVI), rolling 8 days: MODIS Terra NDVI, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026

04The chapter

What Population and Demographic Futures covers.

  1. 01

    Members

    Specialists who work on the chapter's questions.

  2. 02

    Group

    A moderated group, opened when its hosting and terms are in place.

  3. 03

    Editor

    A named editor responsible for the chapter's pages.

  4. 04

    Research agenda

    Questions the chapter works on, starting from its cornerstone topic.

05Chapter scope

What this chapter gathers.

The chapter covers population change (ageing, urbanisation, migration) and what it means for future vulnerability and capacity.

06Reference frame

Instruments the chapter reads against.

Instrument or bodyWhy it matters here
UN World Population ProspectsPopulation projections
Census programmesBaseline data
IPCC shared socioeconomic pathwaysDemographic assumptions in scenarios
07Join

Take part.

Write to contact@therisk.global. The acknowledgement gives a reference and names the next step.

08Key terms

Terms used on this page.

Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.

TermDefinition
Total fertility rateThe average number of children a woman would have at current age-specific birth rates.
Demographic dividendPotential economic growth from a rising working-age share of the population.
Dependency ratioThe ratio of people of non-working age to those of working age.
ChapterIn the Nexus network, a specialist sub-community inside a platform with its own group, editor and research agenda; it can become its own platform only by meeting the published graduation rule.
09Sources

Where this page's references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

10Questions

Questions and answers.

Can a chapter become its own platform?
Yes, by meeting the ten-point graduation rule.
Society and Human Development

Bring your expertise to this field.

The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.