Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

14 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-SECTOR-CITIES-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Cities are where the systems meet
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Heat wave followed by flooding in a subsiding coastal city
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 45 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.145 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results (publication page and press release; 45% of 8.2 billion people in cities, 33 megacities, more than 12,000 cities, Degree of Urbanisation). United Nations, New York, November 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  2. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, API extract of urban population, total population, urban agglomerations, urban access to electricity, clean cooking, safely managed drinking water and sanitation, slum share (database updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025 (population) and 2024 (access). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  3. 3UN Statistics Division (ed.), Global SDG Indicators Database, API extract of series EN_LND_SLUM, EN_ATM_PM25, EN_ACS_URB_OPENSP, SP_TRN_PUBL, EN_REF_WASCOL and SD_CPA_UPRDP (release 2026.Q3.G.01). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 (slums), 2023 (PM2.5) and 2020 (transport, open space). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  4. 4United Nations (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, Goal 11 (housing, flood, local risk reduction strategies, waste collection, national urban policies). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 (indicator data 2010 to 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  5. 5UN DESA (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 11: make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable (Goal page; slum population, land consumption rate, targets). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2022 (slums) and 2025 (land consumption). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  6. 6IPCC (ed.), Urban systems and other settlements, chapter 8 in Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC (downloaded chapter, executive summary read). IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  7. 7IPCC (ed.), Cities, settlements and key infrastructure, chapter 6 in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC (downloaded chapter, executive summary read). IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  8. 8WHO (ed.), Ambient (outdoor) air pollution, fact sheet (4.2 million premature deaths in 2019; 99% of people above guideline levels). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  9. 9WHO (ed.), Road traffic injuries, fact sheet (page dated 20 July 2026; about 1.16 million deaths a year). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026 (page date). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  10. 10WHO (ed.), Climate change, heat and health, fact sheet (about 489,000 heat-related deaths a year, 2000 to 2019; Europe summer 2022). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  11. 11World Bank (ed.), Urban development overview (cities generate 80% of global GDP; infrastructure needs up to USD 2.7 trillion a year in low- and middle-income countries; slums about a quarter of urban population). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026 (page; individual figures undated). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  12. 12UN-Habitat (ed.), World Cities Report 2024: Cities and Climate Action, key messages (report page; cities receive less than 20% of climate finance needed). United Nations Human Settlements Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7
  13. 13Rentschler, J., Salhab, M. and Jafino, B.A., Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries, Nature Communications 13, 3527 (open access full text, PMC). Springer Nature, London, 2022. Observation year 2020 (population grid). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  14. 14Tuholske, C. et al., Global urban population exposure to extreme heat, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118(41), e2024792118 (open access full text, PMC). National Academy of Sciences, Washington, 2021. Observation year 2016 (series 1983 to 2016). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7
  15. 15Trees halve the urban heat island effect globally but unequal benefits only modestly mitigate climate-change warming, Nature Communications (2026), open access full text, PMC. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2026 (analysis of 8,919 large urban areas). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  16. 16Global subsidence of river deltas, Nature (2026), open access full text, PMC. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2026 (40 deltas, satellite radar). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  17. 17Romanello, M. et al., The 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: the imperative for a health-centred response in a world facing irreversible harms, The Lancet 402 (open access full text, PMC). Elsevier, London, 2023. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  18. 18The role of greenness in heat-related mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis, Annals of Global Health (2026), open access full text, PMC. Ubiquity Press, London. Observation year 2026 (11 studies). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
  19. 19Urban tree canopy fragmentation and child mortality in low- and middle-income countries, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2026), open access full text, PMC. National Academy of Sciences, Washington. Observation year 2026 (420,000 children, 57 countries). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
  20. 20European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2024/1275 of 24 April 2024 on the energy performance of buildings (recast), Official Journal of the European Union (downloaded text; Articles 7 and 12 read). Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  21. 21United Nations General Assembly (ed.), New Urban Agenda, resolution 71/256, adopted at Habitat III in Quito on 20 October 2016 and endorsed on 23 December 2016 (downloaded text). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  22. 22OECD and UCLG (eds.), World Observatory on Subnational Government Finance and Investment, 2022 highlights (135 countries; 2020 data). Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris, and United Cities and Local Governments, Barcelona. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  23. 23European Commission (ed.), EU Mission: climate-neutral and smart cities (mission page; 112 cities, 107 labelled). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2026 (page). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  24. 24FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (publication page; 645 million people faced hunger in 2025; about 2.7 billion cannot afford a healthy diet). Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  25. 25WMO (ed.), 2025 set to be second or third warmest year on record (press release; January to August 2025 about 1.42 °C above pre-industrial). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
  26. 26Sinking cities, rising seas, Communications Engineering (2022), commentary on a Nature Sustainability study of relative land subsidence in 48 major coastal cities (open access full text, PMC). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP and GlobalABC (eds.), Global Status Report for Buildings and Construction 2024 to 2025; the report page returned an access error and the figures seen only in search summaries (buildings about 32% of energy and 34% of CO2) are not used. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi, 2025. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Global Waste Management Outlook 2024; the report page returned an access error and the figures seen only in search summaries are not used. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi, 2024. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (released 23 March 2026), known from search results only; no figure is used. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN-Habitat (ed.), World Cities Report 2022: Envisaging the Future of Cities, cited from memory without figures. United Nations Human Settlements Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025; the page returned an access error and no figure is used. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030; the page returned an access error and the entry is cited from memory without figures. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), The Future of Cooling: Opportunities for energy-efficient air conditioning, cited from memory without figures. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 37120:2018, Sustainable cities and communities: indicators for city services and quality of life, cited from memory. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 37123:2019, Sustainable cities and communities: indicators for resilient cities, cited from memory. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 37101:2016, Sustainable development in communities: management system for sustainable development, cited from memory. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement, adopted December 2015, cited from memory without figures. UNFCCC, Bonn. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly (ed.), Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, resolution 70/1, cited from memory without figures. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD and European Commission (eds.), Cities in the World: A New Perspective on Urbanisation, cited from memory without figures. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Seto, K.C., Guneralp, B. and Hutyra, L.R., Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109(40), 16083 to 16088, 2012, cited from memory without figures. National Academy of Sciences, Washington. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Guneralp, B. et al., Global scenarios of urban density and its impacts on building energy use through 2050, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114(34), 8945 to 8950, 2017, cited from memory without figures. National Academy of Sciences, Washington. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Nicholls, R.J. et al., A global analysis of subsidence, relative sea-level change and coastal flood exposure, Nature Climate Change 11, 338 to 342, 2021, cited from memory without figures. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Romanello, M. et al., The 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change; the journal page returned an access error and no figure is used. Elsevier, London, 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: WHO (ed.), WHO global air quality guidelines: particulate matter, ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide and carbon monoxide, 2021; the fact-sheet page did not state the guideline values and no value is used. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: UCLG (ed.), GOLD VI report: Pathways to urban and territorial equality, cited from memory without figures. United Cities and Local Governments, Barcelona, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Global Cities Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Global Sector Series GS-10
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-SECTOR-CITIES-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 cities edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-SECTOR-CITIES-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
GS-10NR-SECTOR-CITIES-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-SECTOR-CITIES-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-SEC-GS-10-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

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ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. GS-10 edition Reports Global Cities 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; GS-10 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Global Cities Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Cities and Urban Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-CITIES-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Global Cities and Urban Systems.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Context

Infrastructure and its partners

Infrastructure gives pipes, dams and treatment works to water (0.6), transmission and fuel logistics to energy (0.6) and access to care to health (0.5).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
  • Water → Health · drinking water and sanitation0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

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