Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

14 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Observation is where evidence begins
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Observation gap under an extreme season
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 45 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.145 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1ESA Space Debris Office (ed.), ESA’s Annual Space Environment Report, issue 10.0, 1 May 2026. European Space Agency, ESOC, Darmstadt. Observation year 2025 (modelled population at reference epoch August 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  2. 2UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, as reported in the WMO press release of 12 November 2025, Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (the report itself was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  3. 3WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, one-page summary of the report released 23 March 2026. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (greenhouse gases 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  4. 4Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025. ECMWF, Reading, for the European Commission. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  5. 5World Resources Institute and Global Forest Watch (eds.), Global Forest Watch’s 2025 Tree Cover Loss Data Explained (with University of Maryland GLAD tree cover loss data and comparison with JRC and PRODES series). WRI, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  6. 6FAO (ed.), Global deforestation slows, but forests remain under pressure, FAO report shows, release on the Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025, 21 October 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  7. 7ESA (ed.), FutureEO after CM25 (Floberghagen), presentation on the outcome of the November 2025 ministerial meeting for the Earth Observation Programme. European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  8. 8ESA Council (ed.), Subscription to optional programmes at the CM25, ESA/C-M(2025)100, rev. 5, Paris, 1 December 2025. European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  9. 9Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem (ed.), Annual Report 2024. European Space Agency and consortium partners, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  10. 10USGS National Land Imaging Program (ed.), NLI Update to the National Geospatial Advisory Committee, March and April 2026 (fiscal year 2025 archive statistics; Landsat 8 and 9 status). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  11. 11Congressional Research Service (ed.), Landsat, What’s Next? In Focus IN12281, updated 16 June 2025. Congressional Research Service, Washington. Observation year 2025 (FY2026 request). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  12. 12NASA (ed.), Terra: The End of an Era (with end-of-science projections for Terra, Aqua and Aura). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 7, chapter 8
  13. 13NASA (ed.), NISAR mission page (launch 30 July 2025; joint mission with the Indian Space Research Organisation). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
  14. 14ESA (ed.), Sentinel-1D reaches orbit on Ariane 6, 4 November 2025. European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
  15. 15NSIDC (ed.), User notice: SSMIS data processing to end by 30 June 2025, with update extending processing through 31 July 2025. National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 7
  16. 16GCOS (ed.), The 2022 GCOS Implementation Plan (GCOS-244), abstract and summary of themes, as held in the AWI EPIC repository (the full plan was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  17. 17WMO (ed.), Closing the gaps in the observing network (news article on the Global Basic Observing Network and the Systematic Observations Financing Facility). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year not stated on the page. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  18. 18WMO (ed.), WMO Unified Data Policy Resolution (Res.1) of the Extraordinary World Meteorological Congress 2021, information page. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  19. 19GEO Secretariat (ed.), GEO-21 Info 1.8 (Rev1): New Members, Participating Organizations and Associates. Group on Earth Observations, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
  20. 20CEOS (ed.), CEOS Analysis Ready Data, overview page. Committee on Earth Observation Satellites. Observation year 2026 (current page). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  21. 21NASA Harvest (ed.), GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning Releases 100th Issue, 5 December 2024. NASA Harvest, College Park. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 8
  22. 22US Argo Program (ed.), US Argo National Report for the Argo Steering Team meeting AST-26 (operational float counts as of February and April 2025). Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
  23. 23Environmental Defense Fund and MethaneSAT (eds.), MethaneSAT loses contact with satellite, project update of 1 July 2025. Environmental Defense Fund, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 5, chapter 7, chapter 8
  24. 24ESA (ed.), The Space Economy in 2023, ESA space economy report, published December 2024 (title page not present in the extracted text; section 2 headed The Space Economy in 2023). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  25. 25European Commission (ed.), Proposal for a Regulation on the safety, resilience and sustainability of space activities in the Union (EU Space Act), COM(2025) 335 final, transmitted to the Council on 26 June 2025 as document 10935/25. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  26. 26ECMWF (ed.), ECMWF’s AI forecasts become operational, 25 February 2025. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 7
  27. 27ECMWF (ed.), ECMWF’s ensemble AI forecasts become operational (AIFS ENS), 2025. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7
  28. 28ECMWF (ed.), Third phase of Destination Earth confirmed, 1 February 2026. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  29. 29Brown, C.F. et al., AlphaEarth Foundations: An embedding field model for accurate and efficient global mapping from sparse label data, arXiv preprint 2507.22291, July 2025 (abstract opened; not peer reviewed). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  30. 30Szwarcman, D. et al., Prithvi-EO-2.0: A Versatile Multi-Temporal Foundation Model for Earth Observation Applications, arXiv preprint 2412.02732, December 2024 (abstract opened; not peer reviewed). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  31. 31Lam, R. et al., Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting, Science 382(6677), 1416 to 1421, 2023 (journal record and abstract opened). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  32. 32Hansen, M.C. et al., High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change, Science 342(6160), 850 to 853, 2013 (journal record and summary opened). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2012 (study period 2000 to 2012). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  33. 33Pekel, J.-F. et al., High-resolution mapping of global surface water and its long-term changes, Nature 540, 418 to 422, 2016. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2015 (study period 1984 to 2015). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  34. 34WHO (ed.), Climate inaction is claiming millions of lives every year, warns new Lancet Countdown report, news release of 29 October 2025. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024 (deaths averaged over the series period). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. The page returned an access error and no figure is used. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), The Space Economy in Figures: Responding to Global Challenges. OECD Publishing, Paris, 2023. The pages returned an access error and no figure is used. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: GCOS (ed.), The Status of the Global Climate Observing System 2021: The GCOS Status Report (GCOS-240). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Named in the opened summary of the 2022 plan [16]; no figure is used. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: NASA Earthdata (ed.), Status update on DMSP data products. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. The page returned an access error; later status is unknown in this edition. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zhu et al., Benefits of the free and open Landsat data policy, Remote Sensing of Environment 224, 382 to 385, 2019. Elsevier, Amsterdam. Only a bibliographic record without abstract was read; no figure is used. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 19115-1:2014, Geographic information: Metadata, Part 1, fundamentals. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. The catalogue page returned an access error; cited from memory. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2021/696 establishing the Union Space Programme (including Copernicus), Official Journal of the European Union, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2023/138 laying down a list of specific high-value datasets and the arrangements for their publication and re-use, Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: WMO and SOFF (eds.), Global Basic Observing Network compliance monitoring and SOFF annual reporting, taken from search-result summaries; no figure is used. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN COPUOS (ed.), Guidelines for the Long-term Sustainability of Outer Space Activities, 2019, named in the opened ESA report [1]; no figure is used. United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, Vienna. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lancet Countdown on health and climate change (eds.), The 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, The Lancet, October 2025; the figures used are taken from the WHO release [34], not from the report. Elsevier, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Global Earth Observation Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Global Sector Series GS-12
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 Earth observation edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
GS-12NR-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-SEC-GS-12-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. GS-12 edition Reports Global Earth Observation 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; GS-12 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Global Earth Observation Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Earth Observation and Planetary Intelligence. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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