Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

14 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-SECTOR-SCIENCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Science is where the frontier is made
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Loss of trust in the research record during a fast-moving emergency
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 44 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.144 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1NSB (ed.), Science and Engineering Indicators 2026: The State of U.S. Science and Engineering (NSB-SEP-2026-1), May 2026, National Science Board and National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics, US National Science Foundation, Alexandria. Full PDF opened; global R&D, publications, collaboration, venture investment, semiconductor and doctoral-degree figures read from the text. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  2. 2UNESCO Institute for Statistics (ed.), UIS data API, data version 20260507 (February 2026 data release): indicators EXPGDP.TOT, RESDEN.INHAB.TFTE and FRESP.THC, world and regional aggregates. UNESCO, Montreal. Data pulled and read. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  3. 3DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators API (series updated 2026-10-08, after the 30 September evidence close; cited as the position at access): GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS, SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6, IP.JRN.ARTC.SC, IP.PAT.RESD, IP.PAT.NRES, world values. World Bank, Washington. Data pulled and read. Observation year 2023 (patents 2024, researchers 2020). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
  4. 4TOP500 project (ed.), TOP500 list, 67th edition, June 2026 (release text read in full for the leading systems). TOP500, Prometeus GmbH. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  5. 5POST-CLOSE, context only: arXiv (ed.), Monthly submissions statistics (monthly CSV, 1991 to November 2026; annual totals summed by the editors). Cornell University, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6
  6. 6Crossref (ed.), Crossref REST API, work counts by type and publication year and counts of retraction notices (update-type filter), queried live on the access date. Crossref, Oxford. Counts are subject to later registration. Observation year 2025 (series 2015 to 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  7. 7bioRxiv (ed.), bioRxiv and medRxiv content detail API, new-paper counts for 2024 and 2025. Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, Cold Spring Harbor. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  8. 8Stanford HAI (ed.), The 2026 AI Index Report, overview page with the ten top takeaways. Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI, Stanford. Page read; the report PDF was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  9. 9Stanford HAI (ed.), The 2026 AI Index Report, Chapter 5 Science, chapter page with its highlights. Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI, Stanford. Page read; the chapter PDF was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  10. 10Google Quantum AI and collaborators, Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold, arXiv 2408.13687 (full text opened) and Nature 638, 920 to 926, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  11. 11Abramson, J. et al., Accurate structure prediction of biomolecular interactions with AlphaFold 3, Nature 630, 493 to 500, 2024 (abstract and open full text read through Europe PMC). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  12. 12Varadi, M. et al., AlphaFold Protein Structure Database in 2024: providing structure coverage for over 214 million protein sequences, Nucleic Acids Research 52 (database issue), 368 to 375, 2024 (abstract read through Europe PMC). Oxford University Press, Oxford. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  13. 13Sevilla, J. et al., Compute Trends Across Three Eras of Machine Learning, arXiv 2202.05924, 2022 (abstract page read). Cornell University, Ithaca. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  14. 14Richardson, R.A.K. et al., The entities enabling scientific fraud at scale are large, resilient, and growing rapidly, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 122(32), 2025 (abstract and open full text record read through Europe PMC). National Academy of Sciences, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  15. 15Park, M., Leahey, E. and Funk, R.J., Papers and patents are becoming less disruptive over time, Nature 613, 138 to 144, 2023 (abstract read through Europe PMC; full text not opened). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  16. 16Open Science Collaboration, Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science, Science 349(6251), aac4716, 2015 (abstract read through Europe PMC; full text not opened). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  17. 17US Food and Drug Administration (ed.), FDA Approves First Gene Therapies to Treat Patients with Sickle Cell Disease, press announcement of 8 December 2023. FDA, Silver Spring. Page read. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  18. 18WHO (ed.), Global guidance framework for the responsible use of the life sciences: mitigating biorisks and governing dual-use research, 174 pages, 2022. World Health Organization, Geneva. Publication page and overview read; the full text was not opened. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  19. 19CERN (ed.), Future Circular Collider, feasibility study page (results published in spring 2025: 91 km ring, estimated cost CHF 15 billion). CERN, Geneva. Page read. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  20. 20Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (ed.), Achieving Fusion Ignition, National Ignition Facility page (ignition reached on 5 December 2022). LLNL, Livermore. Page read. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  21. 21Our World in Data (ed.), Yearly number of objects launched into outer space (data compiled from the UN Office for Outer Space Affairs, CSV read). Global Change Data Lab, Oxford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  22. 22RCSB Protein Data Bank (ed.), Current holdings, list of entry identifiers (262,922 entries counted by the editors on the access date). Research Collaboratory for Structural Bioinformatics. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  23. 23GBIF (ed.), GBIF API, occurrence count and counts by year (3,890,294,224 records on the access date; 305,893,347 dated 2025). Global Biodiversity Information Facility, Copenhagen. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  24. 24European Commission (ed.), Horizon Europe, programme page (indicative funding of EUR 93.5 billion for 2021 to 2027 after the mid-term review). European Commission, Brussels. Page read. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  25. 25UNESCO (ed.), UNESCO Recommendation on Open Science, 2021, programme page (193 Member States). UNESCO, Paris. Page read; the Recommendation text itself returned an access error. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  26. 26UNESCO (ed.), Recommendation on the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence, November 2021, programme page (193 Member States). UNESCO, Paris. Page read; the text itself was not opened. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  27. 27Gottweis, J. et al., Accelerating scientific discovery with Co-Scientist, arXiv 2502.18864 (version 2, 2026; abstract read through the arXiv API). Cornell University, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
  28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN General Assembly, resolution 79/325, Terms of reference and modalities for the establishment and functioning of the Independent International Scientific Panel on Artificial Intelligence and the Global Dialogue on Artificial Intelligence Governance, 2025; adoption in 2025 taken from search-result summaries, because the document page returned no text. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN General Assembly, resolution 79/1, Pact for the Future, including the Global Digital Compact, 2024, cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory; the publication page returned a pending response. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Council of Europe, Framework Convention on Artificial Intelligence and Human Rights, Democracy and the Rule of Law, 2024, cited from memory. Council of Europe, Strasbourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO/IEC 42001:2023, Artificial intelligence management system; the catalogue page returned an access error. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO/IEC 17025:2017, General requirements for the competence of testing and calibration laboratories, cited from memory. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Baker, M., 1,500 scientists lift the lid on reproducibility, Nature 533, 452 to 454, 2016; the article is behind a subscription and only its bibliographic record was checked. Springer Nature, London. No figure from it is used. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Jumper, J. et al., Highly accurate protein structure prediction with AlphaFold, Nature 596, 583 to 589, 2021, cited from memory. Springer Nature, London. No figure from it is used. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNESCO (ed.), UNESCO Science Report: Towards 2030, 2021 edition, cited from memory. UNESCO, Paris. No figure from it is used. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNESCO (ed.), Recommendation on Science and Scientific Researchers, 2017, cited from memory. UNESCO, Paris. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: San Francisco Declaration on Research Assessment (DORA), 2012, cited from memory. DORA, San Francisco. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Frascati Manual 2015: Guidelines for Collecting and Reporting Data on Research and Experimental Development, cited from memory. OECD Publishing, Paris. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: WIPO (ed.), World Intellectual Property Indicators 2025, cited from memory; the opened World Bank series draws on WIPO data. World Intellectual Property Organization, Geneva. No figure from it is used. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on their Destruction, 1972, cited from memory. United Nations, Geneva. Observation year 1972. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bloom, N., Jones, C.I., Van Reenen, J. and Webb, M., Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?, American Economic Review 110(4), 1104 to 1144, 2020, cited from memory. American Economic Association, Nashville. No figure from it is used. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Wuchty, S., Jones, B.F. and Uzzi, B., The Increasing Dominance of Teams in Production of Knowledge, Science 316(5827), 1036 to 1039, 2007, cited from memory. American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. No figure from it is used. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (ed.), R&D (SDG 9.5) data release, February 2025; the page returned a script challenge, and 1.95% of GDP in 2022 and 31.1% women among researchers were seen only in search-result summaries and are not used. UNESCO, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Global Science and Engineering Frontier Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Global Sector Series GS-15
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-SECTOR-SCIENCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 science and engineering edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-SECTOR-SCIENCE-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
GS-15NR-SECTOR-SCIENCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-SECTOR-SCIENCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-SEC-GS-15-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. GS-15 edition Reports Global Science and Engineering Frontier 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; GS-15 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Nexus Global Science and Engineering Frontier Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Science and Engineering Frontier. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-SCIENCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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