Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

6 min read1 figure0 tables11 notesNR-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1ASEAN’s risk travels through shared seas, rivers and smoke
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Strong dry season: fire haze across the southern archipelago and the Malacca Strait
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

ASEAN, as the series reads it, is a region whose member editions in the registry are Indonesia and Singapore, set inside an association of eleven member states that share seas, rivers, an airshed and a monsoon climate. Timor-Leste became the eleventh member on 26 October 202526. The eleven states had about 700.3 million people in 2025 and a combined output of about US$4.27 trillion at current prices12. Their greenhouse gas emissions excluding land use were about 3,228 Mt CO₂e in 2024, of which Indonesia emitted 41%5. A magnitude 7.7 earthquake near Mandalay on 28 March 2025 killed at least 3,791 people in Myanmar and at least 63 in Thailand17. Prolonged flooding in Viet Nam in 2025 caused at least 200 deaths and US$1.9 billion of losses16. The haze alert for southern ASEAN was raised to Level 3 on 26 August 202648. In 2024 fossil fuels supplied 85% of Indonesia’s electricity, and renewables supplied 15.6% of the region’s primary energy in 2022 against a target of 23% for 2025818. This Baseline Edition fixes the 2026 reference state from sources that could be read at evidence close. Where a regional dataset could not be read, it shows as a designed empty state that names the source and the blocker. The edition decides nothing and compares no member state against another.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the ASEAN baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. The registry names Indonesia and Singapore. The association has eleven member states, read here as a reference group.26

    Who is in the region?Reported

  2. About 700.3 million people and US$4.27 trillion of output in 2025, as Nexus sums of national series.12

    How big is the region?Estimated

  3. A magnitude 7.7 earthquake in 2025 killed at least 3,791 people in Myanmar; floods in Viet Nam killed at least 200.1617

    What are recent hazards?Reported

  4. Southern ASEAN was raised to Level 3 on 26 August 2026.48

    What is the haze position?Reported

  5. Fossil fuels supplied 85.1% of Indonesia’s electricity in 2024; hydropower supplied 75.5% in Lao PDR.8

    How is electricity supplied?Reported

  6. Fine-particle exposure was highest in Myanmar at 35.1 µg/m³ in 2023.6

    Who is exposed to poor air?Reported

  7. Intra-ASEAN trade and investment series are not bound in this edition.30

    How much do member states trade in the region?Not bound

  8. Fire haze, urban heat and power demand coinciding across the southern archipelago. SCN-ASN-HAZE-01

    What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

The magnitude 7.7 earthquake near Mandalay on 28 March 2025 killed at least 3,791 people in Myanmar and at least 63 in Thailand, injured at least 5,106 in Myanmar and damaged an estimated 55,000 homes, with damage valued at US$1.9 billion.

Figure S.1Deaths in the March 2025 earthquake (at least)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Myanmar3,791
Thailand63

Source: US Geological Survey17. Thailand’s deaths were mainly in the north and the Bangkok area. The record also reports damage to high-rise buildings in Ho Chi Minh City.

A single rupture of about 500 km on the Sagaing Fault was felt across four countries. Health services, housing, power and water failed in Myanmar, and building damage reached Bangkok and Ho Chi Minh City. Response and insurance therefore need to be read across borders17.

S.4At a glance

700.3million

people in the eleven member states, 20251

4.27US$ trillion

combined output at current prices, 20252

3,228Mt CO₂e

emissions excluding land use, 20245

285.7million

Indonesia population, 20251

6.1million

Singapore population, 20251

2members

Indonesia and Singapore, the member editions named in the registry

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of ASEAN risk: heat, flood, smoke and earthquake act on water, energy and health together.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a flood, a smoke day or a price change.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Flood and earthquake loss series by member are not bound, which shows where finance-readiness evidence will matter.

NEXUS

Synthesis

ASEAN publishes strong series on output and energy and a clear haze alert system.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of ASEAN’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026 read across Indonesia, Singapore. It reads the shared basins and grids that no single member controls, and sets out the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a regional risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and each member’s ownership of its own edition is unaffected. It does not stand for the European Union, which is a separate subject in the series.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline: new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 26Viet Nam News (ed.), ASEAN Summit 47: Timor-Leste officially becomes ASEAN’s 11th member (news report, 26 October 2025). Viet Nam News Agency, Ha Noi. Observation year 2025. A news report, used for the admission date only. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste and Viet Nam (data service, source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP at current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), GDP growth (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) and GDP per capita (NY.GDP.PCAP.CD), eleven ASEAN states (source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, AR5 basis (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), eleven ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 17United States Geological Survey (ed.), M 7.7 2025 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar) Earthquake: event record and impact summary (28 March 2025, PAGER alert red). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 16World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Extreme heat and rainfall, glacier loss and record ocean heat impact Asia in 2025 (media release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2025, 17 June 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 48ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Alert20260826: Activation of Alert Level 3 for the Southern ASEAN Region (alert page; NOAA-20 hotspot counts for 24 and 25 August 2026). ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: electricity production from fossil fuels (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS), coal (EG.ELC.COAL.ZS) and hydroelectric sources (EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS), access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS) and electric power consumption per capita, ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (2021 for Brunei Darussalam, Singapore and Timor-Leste hydropower and Timor-Leste fossil and coal). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 18ASEAN Centre for Energy (ed.), The 8th ASEAN Energy Outlook (publication page, 26 September 2024). ACE, Jakarta. Observation year 2022 (base year) with projections to 2050. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN Secretariat (ed.), ASEAN Statistical Yearbook 2023 (the statistics page returned no content; named only as the series that would hold trade and investment values). ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In ASEAN Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of ASEAN’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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