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Risks and capability

Four regional risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence; loss metrics are added only where they can be modelled.

4 min read0 figures1 table12 notesNR-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1ASEAN’s risk travels through shared seas, rivers and smoke
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Strong dry season: fire haze across the southern archipelago and the Malacca Strait
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-ASN-CLI-001

    Cross-border flood and storm season

    Driver
    monsoon rainfall and tropical cyclones
    Exposure
    river corridors, coastal cities and delta farmland
    Vulnerability
    flood defences and drainage not bound
    Capacity
    AHA Centre coordination; documented21
    Cascade
    CLI → INF, FIN, HLT
    Horizon
    annual

  2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-ASN-CLI-002

    Fire haze in a dry season

    Driver
    dry weather and peat and forest fires
    Exposure
    cities and rural areas downwind of the fires
    Vulnerability
    smoke exposure by member not bound
    Capacity
    regional alert system and haze agreement4831; performance not bound
    Cascade
    CLI → HLT → ENE peak
    Horizon
    seasonal

  3. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-ASN-ENE-003

    Fuel and grid stress in coal- and gas-reliant systems

    Driver
    price spike, supply change or heat-driven demand
    Exposure
    power, industry and cooling
    Vulnerability
    cross-border flows and fuel stocks not bound
    Capacity
    energy centre and grid programme exist20; performance not bound
    Cascade
    TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN
    Horizon
    1–5 years

  4. ReportedEQL 4RSK-ASN-CLI-004

    Earthquake and building damage across borders

    Driver
    strike-slip rupture on a plate boundary
    Exposure
    cities with high-rise buildings and weak housing stock
    Vulnerability
    building condition not bound
    Capacity
    disaster response exercises held21; field performance not bound
    Cascade
    CLI → INF → HLT, FIN
    Horizon
    event-driven

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the regional level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationLISTEDthe Paris Agreement is the international frame39; member commitments and delivery not read
Monitoring and observationEXISTSWMO, USGS and the regional meteorological centre publish records161748
Early warningEXISTShaze alert levels are issued for the southern ASEAN region48; flood warning exchange not bound
Preparedness and planningLISTEDregional disaster management agreement and Sendai Framework exist3240; delivery not bound
Redundancy and reservesNOT BOUNDsource: staple stocks and fuel stocks · blocker: not retrieved
ResponseLISTEDregional disaster response simulation held in July 202521; field performance not bound
Continuity of critical servicesNOT BOUNDsource: utility and operator records · blocker: not published
RecoveryNOT BOUNDsource: recovery agency and insurer records · blocker: not retrieved
AdaptationLISTEDIPCC regional assessment describes options42; delivery by member not bound
Social protectionNOT BOUNDsource: income-support and disaster-payment records · blocker: not reviewed
Finance and insuranceNOT BOUNDsource: insurer and reinsurer loss data · blocker: not retrieved
Institutional coordinationEXISTSthe AHA Centre, the energy centre and the Mekong River Commission exist202127; performance not bound
Technical infrastructureNOT BOUNDsource: asset-condition registers · blocker: not published
WorkforceNOT BOUNDsource: health and emergency workforce registers · blocker: not retrieved
Research capacityEXISTScompound-event and regional assessment literature is published4243
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 21POST-CLOSE, context only: ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on disaster management (ed.), AHA Centre home page and events list (mandate, ARDEX-25 of 22 to 24 July 2025, Lower Mekong transboundary flooding workshop of 12 to 15 October 2026). AHA Centre, Jakarta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 48ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Alert20260826: Activation of Alert Level 3 for the Southern ASEAN Region (alert page; NOAA-20 hotspot counts for 24 and 25 August 2026). ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN (ed.), ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution, 2002. ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2002. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 20POST-CLOSE, context only: ASEAN Centre for Energy (ed.), Home page and publications list (9th ASEAN Energy Outlook listed for October 2026; contents not read). ACE, Jakarta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (ed.), Paris Agreement, 2015. UNFCCC Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 16World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Extreme heat and rainfall, glacier loss and record ocean heat impact Asia in 2025 (media release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2025, 17 June 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 17United States Geological Survey (ed.), M 7.7 2025 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar) Earthquake: event record and impact summary (28 March 2025, PAGER alert red). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN (ed.), ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response, 2005. ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2005. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. Pörtner et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, chapter on Asia. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 27Mekong River Commission (ed.), About the Mekong River Commission (page opened: established in 1995 on the Mekong Agreement; members Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam). MRC Secretariat, Vientiane. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In ASEAN Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of ASEAN’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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