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Systems and sectors at baseline

7 min read0 figures2 tables20 notesNR-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1ASEAN’s risk travels through shared seas, rivers and smoke
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Strong dry season: fire haze across the southern archipelago and the Malacca Strait
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

Population using safely managed drinking water, Indonesia

30.5%

Philippines 48.5%, Viet Nam 58.6%, Malaysia 94.7%, Singapore 100%.

Reported2024World Bank13

ENE · Energy

Fossil fuels in electricity generation, Indonesia

85.1%

Coal supplied 70.5%. Renewables supplied 15.6% of regional primary energy in 2022, against a 23% target for 2025.

Reported2024World Bank8 · ACE18

FOO · Food

Cereal production, ten reporting states

234.2Mt

Indonesia 68.3 Mt, Viet Nam 47.9 Mt, Thailand 38.6 Mt. Singapore reports no value. Sum is Nexus arithmetic.

Estimated2024World Bank11

HLT · Health

Fine-particle exposure, Myanmar

35.1µg/m³

Lao PDR 26.0, Viet Nam 24.8, Thailand 23.5, Philippines 22.2, Indonesia 20.8.

Reported2023World Bank6

BIO · Biodiversity

Forest area, Indonesia

50.7% of land

Brunei Darussalam 72.1%, Timor-Leste 71.0%, Philippines 24.8%. Terrestrial protection ranges from 4.6% to 39.9% of land.

Reported2024World Bank9

SYS · Cross-system

Haze alert level, southern ASEAN

3level

Level 3 was issued on 26 August 2026, after 287 and 190 hotspots in Kalimantan on 24 and 25 August.

ReportedAug 2026ASMC48

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The reading states where the regional evidence points; the coupling column names the dependency that carries risk across systems and borders.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATSingapore 106 m³ and Lao PDR 25,190 m³ of renewable freshwater per person in 2022; four Mekong member countries in one commission1027.WAT → ENE · WAT → FOOReported EQL 4
ENEFossil fuels 85.1% of Indonesia’s electricity in 2024; renewables 15.6% of regional primary energy in 2022818.ENE → allReported EQL 4
FOOAbout 234.2 Mt of cereals in 2024 from ten reporting states; staple stocks and prices not bound11.FOO ← WAT, CLIEstimated EQL 3
HLTFine-particle exposure 35.1 µg/m³ in Myanmar in 2023; air-pollution deaths 202.8 per 100,000 in the Philippines in 2019612.HLT ← CLI, ENEReported EQL 4
BIOForest 50.7% of Indonesia’s land in 2024; terrestrial protection from 4.6% to 39.9% of land in 2025. Condition not bound9.BIO ↔ WAT, FOOReported EQL 3
CLIEarthquake 2025 at least 3,791 deaths in Myanmar; Viet Nam floods at least 200 deaths; haze at Level 3 on 26 August 2026161748.forcing on all systemsReported EQL 5
INFPower, water and housing failed across the earthquake zone in Myanmar17. Cross-border power flows not bound.INF → allReported EQL 4
FINFlood and earthquake loss series by member not bound; the earthquake damage record is US$1.9 billion17.FIN ← CLINot bound EQL 1
DATDigital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution.DAT → ENE, FINExpert input EQL 2
AICData-centre and compute demand on grids and water not bound.AIC → ENE, WATNot bound EQL 1
MINMineral and fuel trade not bound at baseline.MIN ← TRDNot bound EQL 1
TRDIntra-ASEAN trade not bound; the energy outlook projects the region as a net gas importer from 2027 in its baseline scenario18.TRD → allInferred EQL 3

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen global sectors are screened on the same grammar as every national edition, so later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemcompound dry season, heat and grid stressfire haze across the southern archipelagoPARTIAL
GS-01Watersafely managed drinking water 30.5% in Indonesia13shared rivers; coastal salt intrusionPARTIAL
GS-02Energyfossil fuels 85.1% of Indonesia’s electricity8coal dependence; gas imports from 2027GOOD
GS-03Foodabout 234.2 Mt of cereals in 202411drought and floodTHIN
GS-04Healthfine particles 35.1 µg/m³ in Myanmar6smoke and heat loadPARTIAL
GS-05Financeloss series not boundprotection gapTHIN
GS-06Developmenthuman development index values for 20234not bound beyond 2023PARTIAL
GS-07ClimateAsia 0.96 °C above the 1991–2020 average16marine heat, flood and fireGOOD
GS-08Disasterearthquake 2025, floods 20251617compound and sequential eventsPARTIAL
GS-09Infrastructureearthquake damage published17power, water and high-rise buildingsPARTIAL
GS-10Citiesurban share of population by member14urban heat and floodTHIN
GS-11Biodiversityforest and protection shares by member9condition not boundPARTIAL
GS-12Earth observationWMO and Sentinel Asia records published1625continuity of recordsGOOD
GS-13Cyber and digitaldependencies not mappedsystemic outagesTHIN
GS-14Policyhaze, disaster and charter agreements exist313233coordination across statesPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencecompound-event and Asia assessment literature4243translation to membersPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS) and safely managed sanitation services (SH.STA.SMSS.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: electricity production from fossil fuels (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS), coal (EG.ELC.COAL.ZS) and hydroelectric sources (EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS), access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS) and electric power consumption per capita, ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (2021 for Brunei Darussalam, Singapore and Timor-Leste hydropower and Timor-Leste fossil and coal). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 18ASEAN Centre for Energy (ed.), The 8th ASEAN Energy Outlook (publication page, 26 September 2024). ACE, Jakarta. Observation year 2022 (base year) with projections to 2050. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: cereal production (AG.PRD.CREL.MT), cereal yield, agricultural land, agriculture value added and employment in agriculture (SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (production) and 2025 (employment). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS) and total protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (forest) and 2025 (protected areas). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 48ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Alert20260826: Activation of Alert Level 3 for the Southern ASEAN Region (alert page; NOAA-20 hotspot counts for 24 and 25 August 2026). ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (ER.H2O.INTR.PC) and freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 27Mekong River Commission (ed.), About the Mekong River Commission (page opened: established in 1995 on the Mekong Agreement; members Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam). MRC Secretariat, Vientiane. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of stunting (SH.STA.STNT.ZS), under-five mortality (SH.DYN.MORT), tuberculosis incidence (SH.TBS.INCD), current health expenditure (SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS) and mortality attributed to air pollution (SH.STA.AIRP.P5), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2019 (air pollution), 2023 (health expenditure) and 2024 (mortality, tuberculosis); stunting years differ by state, 2000 to 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 16World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Extreme heat and rainfall, glacier loss and record ocean heat impact Asia in 2025 (media release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2025, 17 June 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 17United States Geological Survey (ed.), M 7.7 2025 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar) Earthquake: event record and impact summary (28 March 2025, PAGER alert red). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 4United Nations Development Programme (ed.), Human Development Report 2025: composite indices time series (Human Development Index, life expectancy, schooling, gross national income per capita, 2023 values for the ASEAN states). UNDP, New York. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: urban population share (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), population aged 65 and above, population density, population growth and urban population living in slums, ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (2022 for slums, 2024 for density). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 25Sentinel Asia (ed.), Flood and Landslide in North Sumatra, Indonesia on 28 November 2025 (emergency observation record). Sentinel Asia secretariat. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN (ed.), ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution, 2002. ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2002. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN (ed.), ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response, 2005. ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2005. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN (ed.), Charter of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, 2007. ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. Pörtner et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, chapter on Asia. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In ASEAN Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of ASEAN’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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