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Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

7 min read0 figures5 tables16 notesNR-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1ASEAN’s risk travels through shared seas, rivers and smoke
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Strong dry season: fire haze across the southern archipelago and the Malacca Strait
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Member countries: the baseline regional chapter
    2. 8.2 Shared basins and grids: the baseline regional chapter
    3. 8.3 Hub list: the baseline regional chapter
    4. 8.4 Regional pathway: the baseline regional chapter
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Member countries: the baseline regional chapter

The member editions named in the series registry, Indonesia and Singapore, read side by side on the same indicators. The other nine member states of the association are a reference group: they have no edition in the registry and are never joined to the region on a code alone.

700.3million

people in the eleven states, 20251

3,228Mt CO₂e

emissions excluding land use, 20245

4.27US$ trillion

combined output, 20252

Table 8.1Member system cards at baseline
MemberState at baselineEvidenceStatus
Indonesiapopulation 285.7 million; output US$1.45 trillion; emissions 1,323.8 Mt; fossil 85.1% of electricity; forest 50.7% of land; safely managed drinking water 30.5%1258913Reported
Singaporepopulation 6.1 million; output US$603.9 billion; emissions 76.1 Mt; fossil 94.3% of electricity; 106 m³ of renewable freshwater per person125810Reported
Reference groupeleven-state totals: 700.3 million people; US$4.27 trillion; 3,228.3 Mt; Indonesia holds 40.8% of the people125Estimated

Couplings across members

  • CLI → HLT through smoke from the southern archipelago
  • ENE → ENE through fuel markets and the regional grid programme
  • CLI → WAT across the Lower Mekong and the Malacca Strait
  • FIN ← CLI losses carried by insurers across borders

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • member emissions including land use
  • flood loss and heat death series by member
  • daily smoke readings by member

8.2Shared basins and grids: the baseline regional chapter

Shared seas, rivers, an airshed and power links carry risk across member borders. This chapter names each system, the states involved and the evidence read at baseline. Rows without a source are designed empty states.

11states

ASEAN member states since 26 October 202526

4countries

in the Mekong River Commission27

3alert level

southern ASEAN, 26 August 202648

Table 8.2Shared basins and seas
BasinMembers involvedEvidenceStatus
Southern ASEAN airshedIndonesia and Singapore as registry members; Malaysia downwind of Sumatra and Kalimantan4823Reported
Lower MekongCambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam are the commission members; no registry member27Reported
Mekong seasonal flow splitthe split of annual flow between dry and flood seasons is reported in the State of the Basin report, which was not opened35NOT BOUND
Malacca StraitIndonesia and Singapore, with Malaysia; Cyclone Senyar formed here in November 202525Reported
Table 8.3Shared grids and gas networks
GridMembers involvedEvidenceStatus
ASEAN Power Grida programme area of the energy centre; flows and capacity not bound20NOT BOUND
Regional fuel marketsthe baseline scenario of the energy outlook has the region as a net gas importer from 202718Inferred
Hydropower in the Mekong stateshydropower supplied 75.5% of electricity in Lao PDR and 38.5% in Cambodia in 20248Reported
Disaster coordination networkthe AHA Centre coordinates responses among member states; field performance not bound21Reported

Couplings through shared systems

  • CLI → HLT smoke across borders
  • CLI → WAT → ENE flow variation into hydropower
  • TRD → ENE fuel route change into power prices
  • CLI → INF an earthquake or storm crossing borders

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • hotspot counts and smoke readings by member
  • Mekong dry-season flow series
  • cross-border power flows and capacity
  • fuel stocks

8.3Hub list: the baseline regional chapter

The hubs the series registry names for this region and for its member countries. The list is read from the registry, so a change there changes this page.

Registry

Regional hubs
Singapore
Desks with a remit
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · GRX
Registry record
NR-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Table 8.4Member hubs as the registry names them
HubMemberRegistry roleMember edition
not named in the registryIndonesiaG20in preparation
SingaporeSingaporeHub · seatin preparation

What a hub does in this series

  • Hub terms of reference are not set at baseline
  • Hub contact points are not named at baseline
  • The registry names the hubs and the desks with a remit; working arrangements follow from Q1 2027

8.4Regional pathway: the baseline regional chapter

The regional pathway is the route through which the series will read ASEAN as one region from 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next. It does not describe any body that has not been constituted.

Table 8.5The regional pathway at baseline
StageWhat exists todayStateNext
Regional hubSingapore is named in the series registryNAMEDterms set from Q1 2027
DesksGCRI, GRF and GRX hold the remit for regional editions in the registryNAMEDwork plan for Q1 2027
Evidence graphmember and regional findings share identifiersPREPAREDfirst sealed cut NQ-REG-ASN-2027-Q1
Member editionsIndonesia in preparation; Singapore in preparationMIXEDreview through the chain before release

Open at baseline

  • Constitution of any regional council or working group
  • Hub terms of reference and contact points
  • The route from the two registry members to the other nine member states of the association

Decisions that rest elsewhere

  • Energy, water and health policy rest with national authorities and ASEAN bodies
  • ASEAN agreements are made by member states; this edition cites them and decides nothing
  • Membership of the association is a decision of its member states and is not set by the registry

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste and Viet Nam (data service, source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, AR5 basis (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), eleven ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP at current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), GDP growth (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) and GDP per capita (NY.GDP.PCAP.CD), eleven ASEAN states (source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: electricity production from fossil fuels (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS), coal (EG.ELC.COAL.ZS) and hydroelectric sources (EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS), access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS) and electric power consumption per capita, ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (2021 for Brunei Darussalam, Singapore and Timor-Leste hydropower and Timor-Leste fossil and coal). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS) and total protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (forest) and 2025 (protected areas). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS) and safely managed sanitation services (SH.STA.SMSS.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (ER.H2O.INTR.PC) and freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 48ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Alert20260826: Activation of Alert Level 3 for the Southern ASEAN Region (alert page; NOAA-20 hotspot counts for 24 and 25 August 2026). ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 26Viet Nam News (ed.), ASEAN Summit 47: Timor-Leste officially becomes ASEAN’s 11th member (news report, 26 October 2025). Viet Nam News Agency, Ha Noi. Observation year 2025. A news report, used for the admission date only. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 27Mekong River Commission (ed.), About the Mekong River Commission (page opened: established in 1995 on the Mekong Agreement; members Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam). MRC Secretariat, Vientiane. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 23ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Review of Regional Haze Situation for July 2025. ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Mekong River Commission (ed.), Mekong River Basin State of the Basin Report 2023 (dry-season share of flow at Chiang Saen taken from a search summary). MRC Secretariat, Vientiane. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 25Sentinel Asia (ed.), Flood and Landslide in North Sumatra, Indonesia on 28 November 2025 (emergency observation record). Sentinel Asia secretariat. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 20POST-CLOSE, context only: ASEAN Centre for Energy (ed.), Home page and publications list (9th ASEAN Energy Outlook listed for October 2026; contents not read). ACE, Jakarta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 18ASEAN Centre for Energy (ed.), The 8th ASEAN Energy Outlook (publication page, 26 September 2024). ACE, Jakarta. Observation year 2022 (base year) with projections to 2050. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 21POST-CLOSE, context only: ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on disaster management (ed.), AHA Centre home page and events list (mandate, ARDEX-25 of 22 to 24 July 2025, Lower Mekong transboundary flooding workshop of 12 to 15 October 2026). AHA Centre, Jakarta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In ASEAN Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of ASEAN’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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